The NPR Politics Podcast - Midterm Update: Tuesday's Primaries Underscore That The GOP Is Trump's Party Now

Episode Date: June 13, 2018

Results from Tuesday's primaries underscored one major theme – it's Donald Trump's Republican Party now. An establishment candidate in South Carolina lost his re-election bid, and a Bannon-esque candidate won in Virginia. We break down what it means for the GOP. This episode: Reporter Sarah McCammon, Congressional reporter Kelsey Snell, and national political correspondent Mara Liasson. Email the show at [e-mail]. Find and support your local public radio station at npr.org/stations.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hello, this is Colin Shenhan calling in from Dayton, Ohio, to wish Mara Liason and myself a very happy birthday. This podcast was recorded at 10.52 a.m. on Wednesday, June 13th. Things may have changed by the time you hear this. All right, here's the show. Happy birthday, Mara! Yeah, things may have changed. I got older. Happy birthday. And you brought us a smashed cake. Thank you very much. Yeah, I brought you a smashed cake.

Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. Yesterday there were more primaries, and we're here to break down what we've learned. I'm Sarah McCammon. I'm covering the White House. I'm Kelsey Snell. I cover Congress. And I'm Mara Liason, national political correspondent. It's safe to say that after yesterday, the Republican Party is Trump's party. There were a couple of really clear examples, one in South Carolina, another in Virginia. And we're going to start there in South Carolina with Mark Sanford, who lost his reelection bid.

Really quick, Mara, remind us who he is. Mark Sanford is the former governor of South Carolina who had a famous scandal. He had an affair. And at one point he said he was hiking the Appalachian Trail, but really he was visiting his lover in South America. But he came back. He won an election to be a member of Congress. He has never lost an election before, but he lost his primary to Katie Arrington, who declared when she won, this is Donald J. Trump's party. And that says everything you need to know about that primary. Yeah. And, you know, Mark Sanford had seemed like he had gotten past that scandal until this election. And Arrington actually made this a major feature of her. Well, the two major features of

her campaign against him were, number one, that he was irresponsible and had had this affair and that made him not qualified. And the other thing was that he did not support the president enough. And that made him not qualified. That was his bigger sin in his primary. Yes. And Harrington ran that ad where she made that take a hike joke. It's time for Sanford to take a hike. Bless his heart. But it's time for Mark Sanford to take a hike. For real this time. I don't know. Do you think the bigger issue was that or the Trump? No, it was not being friendly enough to Trump. Not that he didn't vote with the Republican majority all the time and for all the Trump initiatives, but that he was critical of the president's style, behavior, demeanor. And not his policies for the most part.

Right. He has been a pretty big supporter of the president on policy. But as we've talked about a lot here, style matters to this president. And that's something that Sanford has been uncomfortable with. He didn't like the demeanor. He didn't like the tweets. Personal loyalty matters to this president. Absolutely.

And that's what was Mark Sanford's biggest sin in the eyes of the Trump base in South Carolina. And that's why people say that Donald Trump has done a complete takeover of the Republican Party. Not only can you not dissent from Trump on policy, much worse, you can never criticize the president in any way, shape or form. Some people have called this a cult of personality. It's interesting that Trump didn't get involved in this race until right until the very, very end, like literally the last couple of hours of voting. He tweeted, Mark Sanford has been very unhelpful to me in my campaign to M-A-G-A, MAGA, make America great again. He is MIA and nothing but trouble. He is better off in Argentina. And Trump went on to endorse Katie Arrington. But I mean, how big of a difference does that make at that point? It probably didn't make a big difference. I think it just is significant because it tells you a lot about Donald Trump. He has gotten burned by getting involved in Republican primaries. He famously didn't support Roy Moore, who won the Republican primary in Alabama. So he was staying

out. But what he wanted to do now, he went on to tweet, my political representatives didn't want me to get involved in the Mark Sanford primary, thinking that Sanford would easily win. But with a few hours left, I felt Katie was such a good candidate and Sanford was so bad, I had to give it a shot. As if he swooped in at the end and heaved her over the finish line, which is not the case. But here is where he stayed out because he's now been burned before and was trying to be more cautious and hedging his bets. But he really wanted to take credit for this. You know, the thing that I think is an interesting takeaway from this is that the race really underscores how much Republican primary voters are shifting. And it reminds me of 2014, when the former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost in his primary to this guy, Dave Brat, who is

kind of a brash, far right kind of guy. At the time, it was the first signal that we had seen in that election cycle that the establishment was just not welcome in the House Republican circle anymore. And, you know, in a lot of circles of Republicans beyond just the House. This seems to be the moment that we're seeing the tide turning and saying people who are not with this president are not welcome in the party anymore. To me, that's really significant. The trajectory from the Brat win to what happened last night with Sanford. First, it was about anti-establishment fervor. They didn't like Eric Cantor's position on immigration. Now it's completely divorced from any policy.

But we're still debating immigration. We're still debating immigration. We'll get to that. But now it's just about Donald Trump. As John Boehner said the other day, the former House speaker, there is no Republican Party anymore. There's just a party of Trump. There's just a Trump party. And the Republican Party is taking a nap somewhere. But that's what you saw last night. This is not about the establishment. It's not about policy. It's just about who can be more pro-Trump. But isn't Trump, by definition, sort of about pushing back against the establishment? No, he is the establishment. He is now. Yes, but also he hasn't pushed back against the establishment. He and he is the establishment. He is now. Yes, but also he hasn't

pushed back against the establishment. He and Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell have passed laws, they've cut taxes, they've confirmed judges, they've cut regulations. I mean, to me, this isn't about an establishment revolt anymore at all until we get to talk about Virginia. But there's no, he adopted the policies of the establishment in large part. I was just going to say, in some ways, the establishment has just changed to accommodate a president who has been unpredictable and who has kind of bucked what the traditional definition of Republican is. I mean, look at trade. That's an issue where a lot of Republicans really feel like he's moving away from them. stock and barrel, the agenda of the evangelical right, the libertarian right with the Koch brothers, the kind of Federalist Society judicial agenda. And he did that because he had no natural

base and kind of no natural set of policies. He did that in a way that rewarded all those parts of the Republican coalition beyond their wildest dreams. In other words, he's been more conservative in many ways than a Marco Rubio or a Jeb Bush might have been. So to me, there's no real establishment versus Trump anymore. I guess, Mara, I would feel free to disagree. I would add to that, though. I mean, if Trump had any kind of a natural platform or agenda, I mean, his protectionist trade policies were always part of his theme. And that isn't a traditional establishment Republican position. Right. And that's what I said. With the exception of trade and immigration, he has pretty much adopted wholesale the agenda of various parts of the conservative Republican

coalition, whether it's evangelicals or the libertarian right. But I agree. On trade and immigration is where he's done the biggest remake of the Republican Party, even though a lot of them privately don't like it. They and publicly there's been some grumblings about his tariffs and his trade agenda. He is now put his stamp on the party and the Republican Party is no longer right now a free trade party or welcoming of legal immigrants. Don't forget, this is about legal immigration, which he is proposing to cut by 44 percent. But I think it's also important to point out here that it's not just about policy on which these candidates are conforming with the president. They are conforming with him in terms of style, of the brashness, and of kind of the let it all hang out way of addressing people and not needing to be as polished as you would totally expect

most politicians to be. I think that's even more a part of this in some ways. So wait, was Arrington like that at all? Yeah, she really did take on that kind of persona of going after and even her ad about Sanford needing to go take a hike and alluding to his affair in that way was really coming at him from a personal angle in a way that, you know, wasn't always the way you would do things in a race like this. But it's a very Trumpian approach. It's a very Trumpian approach. Mark Sanford and the career politicians cheated on us. We sent him to do a job, but he left his post

and set off down a long trail towards obstructionism. I'm Katie Arrington, and I approve this message. I'm a conservative businesswoman, and I'm running for Congress to get things done, not to go on CNN to bash President Trump. I'll cut spending, strengthen our military, and get rid of the career politicians. Bless his heart. But it's time for Mark Sanford to take a hike.

For real this time. I don't know about that. People have attacked people in races for having affairs. Yeah, but this ad very much took on that very Trumpian feel. It's a very direct on the nose approach. But to me, the more significant thing is when she called him out for not supporting Donald Trump enough. That's, to me, the real kind of scarlet letter now. If you are not sufficiently loyal to the president, you can't win a Republican primary.

Oh, sure. My point is that it's about it's it's also about style. So it's about style. It's about substance. It's about supporting the president. My big question about all of this, though. So granting that Trump has become the establishment, has realigned what the establishment of the GOP is, what does it say about Republican voters, at least primary voters, that that this is the way that they're going? What are they after? Oh, I think this is one of the biggest, most interesting questions in American politics, because if the Republican Party is defined by whatever Donald Trump believes or says,

and it's defined by loyalty to him, what happens after he's gone? In other words, what happens when you have xenophobia and isolationism and trade and protectionism without the charismatic leadership of Donald Trump? Is that a viable path forward for the Republican Party in the 21st century? I don't know. There are a number of Republicans in Congress in particular who will privately talk about that. And they talk about very deep concerns about where the party is headed. There are a couple of them that I can think of who say that they have these lunches and dinners where they talk to like-minded Republicans about ways to use nationalism as a signifier or as a tool to move on to something different instead of letting it be the entire

definition of the party. But making that transition is really difficult when your voters are being sold on the attitude and the politics of this president. Okay, I think we're ready for a quick break. When we get back, we'll turn to Virginia, where the last bastion of the Steve Bannon insurrection pulled through yesterday. Support for NPR Politics and the following message come from Rocket Mortgage by Quicken Loans. Rocket Mortgage gives you confidence when it comes to buying a new home or refinancing your existing home loan. With Rocket Mortgage, you can apply simply and understand all the details so you can mortgage confidently. To get started, go to rocketmortgage.com slash NPR politics. Equal housing lender, licensed in all 50 states. NMLSconsumeraccess.org

number 3030. Did you know you can ask Siri to play NPR podcasts for you? It's easy. Just ask. Like, play the Fresh Air podcast. Use your phone or HomePod to connect with your favorite shows anytime. And we're back. So let's dig into Virginia's results, because this was yet another clear example of the Republican Party becoming the Trump Party. So Corey Stewart, and I can talk about this one because I covered this. I've covered Corey Stewart before you guys in Virginia a year ago. You may recall he ran for governor unsuccessfully. And this year he's running for Senate and won the Senate primary. He was the co-chairman of the Trump campaign in 2016.

And until he was fired, and Mara, you can tell us why he was fired. What was so interesting about this is he was the co-chairman of the Trump campaign in Virginia. And you're right, he came within a hair's breadth of winning the Republican primary for governor. He almost beat Ed Gillespie. But he was fired because he protested outside of the RNC headquarters in Washington, if I remember correctly. And the reason was because he didn't think the RNC was supporting Trump. Right, right. And he got fired. But of course, being fired by Donald Trump is really not a forever thing. It doesn't mean you leave the orbit.

It doesn't mean you leave the orbit. But he is one of the very few kind of Trumpy firebrand. One of his signature issues is Confederate monuments and symbols. And for the most part, Mitch McConnell has succeeded once again in tamping down any kind of insurgent anti-establishment insurrections inside the Republican primaries. But Stewart got through. I think he's the exception that proves the rule, really. Yeah, we should say that people were predicting that Tim Kaine, the Democrat, would win re-election pretty easily there. But I wanted to ask you, do you, Sarah, do you think that Republicans in the state are going to embrace him? Is the party going to help him out? You know, it's hard to know what to make of that.

I mean, covering that gubernatorial race last year, which just to recap, not to go too deep into Virginia politics, but the person who won the gubernatorial primary last year for the Republicans was Ed Gillespie, classic establishment figure. He was expected to win by a lot and only won by a tiny, by just a few points. Win the primary by a lot. The primary, right. And he wound up losing the governor's race ultimately. But what's important about that is that Corey Stewart did surprisingly well in 2017, running as a very Trumpian candidate. Nobody expected him to do so well up against an establishment candidate with a lot of money and a lot of support. So fast forward to this year,

you know, Stewart immediately after losing that primary said, I'm going to run for Senate, going to try to run against Tim Kaine. And here he is. He successfully won this primary. I think you could look at it a couple different ways. I think you could say, OK, this does indicate that the Republican Party, at least in Virginia and writ large, is very much Trump's party, that running as a, you know, hardcore Trump candidate is a winning strategy. At the same time, though, I would also look at who Stewart was up against. There wasn't a true, I would argue, not-

This wasn't a good test of that theory because he didn't have a strong opponent. There wasn't a strong establishment candidate running. He was up against E.W. Jackson, a minister who's been very controversial for anti-Muslim remarks, and against a House delegate named Nick Freitas, who gave a speech on the House floor that went viral in which he blamed mass shootings in part on what he called the abortion industry and broken homes. So you had three very controversial candidates. Maybe Corey Stewart was the most reasonable of the three. And Stewart was arguably the best known because he'd been running really for two years. But the question about Virginia is now that you have Corey Stewart, theoretically on the top of the ticket, I mean, it's a midterm election, top of the ticket in the

state, and you have seven congressional districts that have a Republican in them that Democrats are really hoping to flip. Does Corey Stewart help down-ballot Republicans or does he help Democrats and motivate them just like Trump does? This is one of those things that Democrats have talked about quite a bit is when these controversial candidates that they know they can beat at the top of the ticket, make it through. They're elated. They're elated because it draws their base. It makes their base excited. It reminds their base of the parts of the president's agenda and his personality that they so much want to oppose in Congress. And they think that it's a great base motivating tool for Democrats, not for Republicans. I would expect that Senate race, Corey Stewart versus Tim Kaine, to be a rehash of 2016 in many ways. I mean,

because we can't stop reliving 2016. We can't get past it. Stewart has made clear, you know, his support for Trump. Kaine was obviously Hillary Clinton's running mate. That said, you know, Tim Kaine, a long established figure in Virginia. Virginia is turning more and more blue. You know, this isn't expected to be a difficult race for him. And Democrats are excited about other things. I mean, we're looking at so Barbara Comstock, who is Congresswoman right out of D.C., right in northern Virginia. Some people would call it, you know, essentially D.C. I mean, it's essentially part of the city. A lot of people who work in the city live in those suburbs. They're very college educated. There are a lot of women in that district. That is one of the areas where Democrats ago. Now they think that they have the perfect

candidate to make that blue. So it would have gone in four years if they are successful from being the seat that was controlled by the majority leader of the House, the Republican majority leader, to a person who is high up in the House Freedom Caucus, one of the most conservative parts of the House, to a Democrat. So going from establishment to anti-establishment Republican to Dem. Which would be mind-blowing. We don't know that they will actually get there. To be fair, that district still ranks as being heavily Republican. Republicans have an advantage there in all of the analysis. But Democrats are feeling hopeful. Yeah, and they're feeling hopeful in multiple races in Virginia, as you mentioned.

Several, I think some of those top most contested races, all of them, women, are the Democratic nominees. So, you know, we've seen this again in other primaries, the trend toward more and more, you know, female largely Democratic candidates continues. We'll see what happens. We'll see what that happens. We don't have information on turnout in Virginia yet, which we've been watching very carefully this whole year. But we do know because Virginia had an off year election, we do know what happened the last time Virginia's voted in a general election. And Democrats went to the polls in large numbers in a way they hadn't done before. a couple of places, especially suburban places, that in 16 voted for Trump and then in 17 went blue for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Ralph Northam. So it's a really interesting state

to watch this year. And the other thing is that we've seen nationally is that the makeup of the parties are so starkly divided by race, by education, and there was a third one. Gender. Of course. Yes, race, education, and gender. The divide is so stark. Well, and that's why we talk about Virginia and South Carolina today more than, you know, there were a couple other states that had primaries, but these two states in particular have been trending in that in the direction of being more diverse and being having more college educated people. They are two states that are just in in the middle of some change. And they kind of are bellwethers for both Republicans and Democrats about the way the country might be going or the where the battlegrounds might be. Okay, that's a wrap for

today. We'll be back tomorrow with a roundup of this week's biggest stories. Until then, keep up with our coverage on NPR.org, NPR Politics on Facebook, and of course, on your local public radio station. I'm Sarah McCammon. I'm covering the White House. I'm Kelsey Snell. I cover Congress. And I'm Mara Liason, national political correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.