The NPR Politics Podcast - More Jobs, Bigger Paychecks... And The Risk Of Recession?

Episode Date: May 6, 2022

Lots of people have gotten jobs recently and paychecks are, on average, getting bigger. But what those paychecks can buy is shrinking because costs are going up. So, the Federal Reserve is taking steps to limit the amount of money bouncing around in the economy. That should help slow price increases — but risks a recession.And far-right group leaders are pleading guilty to serious charges tied to their involvement in the January 6th riot. And the congressional investigation has interviewed nearly 1000 people ahead of "primetime" hearings in June.Also: Keanu Reeves reports for the CBC, Blake Lively wears a dress, and Judge Judy makes money.This episode: White House correspondent Tamara Keith, White House correspondent Asma Khalid, chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley, congressional reporter Claudia Grisales, and justice correspondent Ryan Lucas.Support the show and unlock sponsor-free listening with a subscription to The NPR Politics Podcast Plus. Learn more at plus.npr.org/politics Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Find and support your local public radio station.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hello, this is Jonathan on the Waihi Ridge Trail in Maui, Hawaii. I'm recording the quintessential public radio sound on this muddy trail. It's so wet and steep that I'm almost surfing down in my boots. This podcast was recorded at 1.59pm on Friday, May 6th, 2022. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I can't let go of this walking stick or else I'll fall. All right, here's the show. I was like, where's the babbling brook? I need a babbling brook or it isn't really the most typical public radio sound.

I couldn't tell if he was trolling us or if he really lovingly just endears ambient sound on the radio. I'm going to go with the latter. Yeah, I don't know. It felt like a little of both. Anyway, hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And I'm Asma Khalid. I also cover the White House. And Chief Economics Correspondent Scott Horsley is here with us.

Good day, my friend. It's great to be with y'all. Scott, you are here because despite all the other big things that we talk about on this podcast, a third of Americans say that economic problems are the biggest issues facing the country right now. Yeah, it's been a muddy week for the economy and we can all use a walking stick, I think. Thank you, Scott. It has. And I hope that you are going to help us see our way through the muck and understand what's really going on here. Because as you say, it is this really interesting, confusing time in the economy. There was a new monthly jobs report today, and the economy added 428,000 jobs in April. That was led by leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, warehousing.

So like that on its face seems like a good thing. Yeah, that is a good thing. And it has been a really remarkable run for the job market. This is the 12th month in a row that the U.S. economy has added more than 400,000 jobs. We're almost 95% of the way back to the payroll level we were at before the U.S. economy has added more than 400,000 jobs. We're almost 95% of the way back to the payroll level we were at before the pandemic. So it's been a remarkable turnaround. But as hot as the job market is, it's also a little bit worrisome for the inflation watchdogs at the Federal Reserve. Right, because wages also grew, right? Like, pretty significantly.

Yeah, wages, average hourly wages in April were up 5.5% from a year ago. That's not enough to keep pace with rising prices. But it is enough of a wage gain that the Fed's worried it could push inflation even higher. And that's why you saw the central bank raise interest rates this week in an effort to start tamping down demand. And we will get way into what the Fed is up to. But first, Asma, you were at the White House this morning, and you asked the president to react to this morning's job numbers. The sometimes glorious days right on the White House beat. We were in quite a bit of rain. And I just asked the president what he made of the job numbers. He said, good, gave me a thumbs up. And then he was on his way to Ohio.

Yeah. And he's on his way to Ohio to talk more, presumably, about the economy. But the White House message on the economy is a little bit challenging. You're right. And I mean, I think that there is an extraordinarily, I think, pervasive sense amongst the American public that inflation is a very big problem. People are extremely frustrated by it. You look at polling and you'll see that voters have a bleak view of the economy. And, you know, I'm particularly struck by this because often views of the economy are dictated by your political persuasion. And some of the recent polling I saw actually showed that a majority of even Democrats now have a poor view of the current economy. So, Scott, I want to talk about this roller coaster ride that the stock market is not the economy, but the markets are responding to this big move by the Federal Reserve, which, as you mentioned, took a dramatic action to try to slow rising costs. And the stock market's reaction is just kind of an exaggerated example of the push and pull that people are feeling right now about the economy.

What the Fed announced on Wednesday was the largest interest rate hike in more than two decades. They raised rates by a half a percent, and they also telegraphed that they may raise rates by another half percent in June and another half percent in July. So that's a big increase in borrowing cost in a short period of time. At first, the market soared because Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, we don't think we're going to raise rates by three quarters of a percent. So the market said, oh, well, that's not as bad as we thought. But then investors sort of thought it over overnight. And the next day they said, oh,

that's terrible. And so we had the Dow Jones Industrial Average jump 900 points plus on Wednesday and crashed more than 1,000 points on Thursday. That is wild. I mean, does it speak to you, Scott, though, that there's just sort of this uncertainty about how to feel about the current economy? Because some things are good, some things are clearly not good. And, you know, investors, people just don't know how they feel about it all. Yes. And I think lots of ordinary people feel that same push and pull.

They may have moments of doubt and moments of exhilaration. And when you look at the stock ticker, all that's just being magnified times a thousand. So, Scott, I want to ask an economic fundamental sort of question, which is inflation is a problem, very obviously a problem. The Fed is trying to respond to inflation. And the best tool they have is to raise interest rates to try to cool the economy because it is too red hot and inflation is too high. But how big a risk are they taking that they will cool things too much or that throwing it into reverse is going to cause the clutch to fall out? Yeah, well, that is the big question. And it's not so much the best tool that they have as kind of the only tool that they have, really. And it's a

very blunt instrument. Raising borrowing costs is a blunt way to go about reducing demand and cooling things off. The question that lots of investors are asking is, can the Fed engineer what's called a soft landing? Can they slow the economy just enough to bring inflation down, but not too much that we sink into a recession? And the uncertainty about that is why you're seeing those wild swings in the market. Yeah, it just it is a perilous moment. And that timing is absolutely terrible for Democrats who face, you know, the midterm elections coming up this November. It's not clear that we'll know how well the Fed's efforts have worked or whether they've worked by the time people are voting or cementing their views. So Asma, how is the White House feeling about this? How are they dealing with it?

Publicly, we've seen them try to present this kind of nuanced argument to the public for a while, talk about the good metrics in the economy. You know, you'll see this and you'll hear this often. They'll talk about record job growth, wage gains. And there's also, I would say, increasingly a sense of empathy around inflation, a desire to show that the president is trying to do something, though, you know, what that is, it's limited what any president can do to curb inflation. I mean, look, I think this is just a very difficult economic climate for the president. There are positive elements in this economy. To be adding 400,000 plus jobs month in and month out for 12 solid months, that's double the pace that we were at before the pandemic struck. To have the unemployment rate fall back to just 3.6 percent, which is just above where it was in February of 2020.

The unemployment rate for African-Americans and Latinos came down in April. You know, you can continue to highlight those things. You know, Scott, I hear you, but I do think that's a really delicate balancing act for Democrats to do, because that's what we saw from the White House for months, talking about how healthy, say, the job numbers were. And certainly I would meet people who felt very frustrated by that line of talking. There was a sense that the White House or that Democrats did not actually understand the pain that people were in. And so I hear you that the White House certainly feels obligated to talk about those good things in the economy. But I think that's a really delicate line for them to walk. All right. Well, Scott Horsley, thank you so much for being back on the

pod. It's always my pleasure. Asma, don't go too far, because we are going to bring you back for Can't Let It Go. But first, we're going to talk about January 6th and the latest on the investigations. And we're back, and Claudia Grisales and Ryan Lucas are here. Hello, guys. Hey there. Hey there. So you are both here because you are the experts on January 6th, the riot at the Capitol

and the investigations that have been ongoing into what happened that day and who's responsible. So, Ryan, let's start with the Department of Justice side of things. Some of the groups tied to the event that day have begun to cooperate with the government, or at least some people are pleading out, pleading guilty, and to some pretty significant charges. Right. I would say that some members of the group are beginning to cooperate with the government, not that the groups themselves are. Fair, fair, fair. But yes, there have been some significant developments in two of the highest profile cases out of the Justice Department's investigation into January 6th. The big one is the seditious conspiracy case against members of the far right Oath Keepers extremist group. The seditious conspiracy charge is the heftiest charge that we've seen so far in this investigation. There were 11 members of the Oath Keepers who

were charged with seditious conspiracy and other crimes, including the leader of the group, Stuart Rhodes. So that's a very high profile case. And in the past couple months, but particularly in the past two weeks, we have seen now three members of the Oath Keepers plead guilty to seditious conspiracy and very importantly here, agree to cooperate with the government in its investigation. That is a significant step forward for the Justice Department as it seeks to prosecute its case against the remaining defendants in that case. Not to ask you to get all speculative here, but what does that lead to? If they are cooperating, does it go higher up, presumably? in pleading guilty is they've also signed statements of offense that basically say, this is what the government could prove. And they've all three said that they agreed to take part in a plan that was developed by the Oath Keepers leader, Stuart Rhodes, to stop the lawful

transfer of power to Joe Biden and to use force if necessary to do so. So what they can do, presumably, is provide information to the government to help the government prove its case against the other defendants. Where this case will lead, we do not know at this point in time. The Justice Department tends to build its investigations from the bottom up. But very interestingly, there was a note in the statement of offense of the most recent person to plead guilty, a man by the name of William Wilson from North Carolina. And in his statement of offense, there's something that caught my eye. Yeah. And this is like criminology. Like you are reading these things looking for a tiny little something that shines light on what may be the bigger case. What else the government may know and what they may be looking at.

And there's, yes, there's a paragraph in this court document that says, after the Capitol was stormed on January 6th, members of the Oath Keepers, including Stuart Rhodes, gathered at the Phoenix Park Hotel, which is near the Capitol. And it says that Rhodes gathered with Wilson and other co-conspirators inside a private suite at the Phoenix Park Hotel, which is near the Capitol. And it says that Rhodes gathered with Wilson and other co-conspirators inside a private suite at the hotel. And Rhodes then called an individual over speakerphone. Wilson heard Rhodes repeatedly implore the individual to tell President Trump to call upon groups like the Oath Keepers to forcibly oppose

the transfer of power. This individual denied Rhodes' request to speak directly with President Trump. After the call ended, Rhodes stated to the group, I just want to fight. Now, important thing to remember here, we don't know who exactly Rhodes called, whether that individual legitimately had access to President Trump. And of course, importantly here, Rhodes never did speak to President Trump. But that has certainly raised speculation that perhaps the government may be pursuing potential lines between the Oath Keepers and folks within Trump's inner circle. And one interesting angle here is that this also overlaps with the House Select Committee investigating the attack. For example, that exact conversation has been brought up, and that's going to be a key area that this panel focuses in on when it comes to what was Trump doing that day,

who was calling for his help, if you will. And more recently, the panel released some text messages exchanged between Stuart Rhodes and others trying to look at providing extra protection for a House Republican. This is Ronnie Jackson of Texas saying he had critical data that needed to be protected. It's unclear in terms of what Jackson had going on that day because he's declined a request from the House panel to testify on these details. But it's obvious they're overlapping. They're looking into some of these similar areas and digging up critical evidence for the committee, too. And that congressman is the former president's official physician. Exactly.

OK, I want to talk, Claudia, about this January 6th investigation from the committee on the Hill. They have gotten a lot of closed door testimony recently from increasingly prominent people, people who would have been at the White House or who would have been able to call President Trump that day. Exactly. It seems many members of the Trump family have come before the panel now. Some key figures. This is his daughter, former senior White House advisor Ivanka Trump, her husband, also a former White House senior advisor Jared Kushner, and then this week, Donald Trump Jr. We spoke to a couple sources who confirmed this to us. We did reach out to his attorney, to Donald Trump Jr.'s attorney, who declined to comment along with the committee

spokesperson. But apparently he did come in on Tuesday and testified for several hours. This is a big coup for the panel to get these high profile members of the Trump family to come in voluntarily without a subpoena and testify for hours on end about what they knew and perhaps shed more light in this investigation. Okay, so this investigation has been happening behind closed doors, as we said, but it is about to go public. The committee has now set dates to hold public hearings. So when will these hearings take place? And what will they look like? Who will we hear from? What is this going to be like? Some details we do know. Committee Chairman Benny Thompson told us this past week that he expects eight hearings to take place in June. And we also understand the first hearing is now set

for June 9. They're hoping to do some of these hearings, hold them in prime time, go straight to the American public, if you will. Tell the story directly. And then some will be held at more traditional committee hearing times during the day. It'll be a mix of both. Now, who are the witnesses? We still do not know. Thompson, for example, we have asked him repeatedly to give us some hints. He is not yet giving us any hints. But it's very possible they're going to pull from the more than 960

witnesses that have come before this committee in the last several months. Most of those, of course, voluntarily because they've issued about 100 public subpoenas so far. And so it'll be interesting to see who they do ask to come forward before the panel. Claudia, what's the goal of this hearing? Because presumably they are going to be talking to people at these hearings who they've already interviewed. So it's not about finding facts. Is this really just about providing essentially television for the American public? Yeah, they want to tell a fuller narrative of what led up to the attack and what happened that day and what followed in the days following that attack. And there are a lot of details the panel members tell us we do not know yet. It will be a bombshell in terms of what

they share. And this is the committee's mission to hold people accountable. And they say they will hold them accountable by telling this story fully and comprehensively in front of as large an audience as they can get. All right, well, we are going to leave it there for now. Ryan, thanks for joining us. Thank you. And we're going to take a quick break. When we get back, it's time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back. And it's time to end the show like we do every week with Can't Let It Go, the part of the pod where we talk about the things from the week

that we just cannot stop talking about, politics or otherwise. Claudia, what can't you let go of? Well, what I can't let go of, I'm watching now on a loop. I can't let it go. It's Keanu Reeves. Apparently, he used to work for the CBC. I believe this is the Canadian broadcasting. Wait, he was a journalist? He's Canadian? There are many questions here. Okay, There are many questions here. Okay, there are many questions here. Obviously, I need to learn more about Keanu. I need to step aside and learn more about the journalism.

But apparently, he did a news report on a teddy bear convention in 1984. And he's doing some really hard-hitting interviews. For example, he's asking, why are all the bears first named Teddy? And he also learns about Pa's preparatory school. So if you've been a bit of a Keanu

stalker, like you've watched him from his earliest film days, for example, Point Break, one of my all-time favorites. It's so bad. It's really, really good. That was not his earliest film. You have to go back to Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure. And Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure. Oh my God, that's amazing. And then fast forward to all the Matrix films, to John Wick series. There's another one, number four, coming out. Apparently it's next year. I'm gonna have to wait longer than I'd like. But this slice of news reporting is such a wonderful look into his journalism days. He's wrestling with the bear at one point.

I totally never knew he was a journalist. I mean, it sounds like it was more of a morning zoo sort of situation, so to speak. And it sounds like it was very short lived. So I'm sticking with Keanu. I'm gonna try and catch up more on his journalismlived. So I'm sticking with Keanu. I'm going to try and catch up more on his journalism career and, of course, his film career, too. I'll keep staying on that, too.

All right, Asma, why can't you let go of? Well, in the theme of celebrities, I don't know if you all were paying attention, but long story short, whenever there's the Met Gala every year, I love to look through the photos of what everyone wears and whatnot. And really, like, the queen of the show this year, in my opinion, and I would argue in the opinion of many of the folks online, was Blake Lively. She is one of the co-chairs of the gala this past year. And she, if y'all don't know, was of like Gossip Girl fame. She comes in wearing this dress that is copper colored with a giant bow on the side.

And I'm going to try to describe this, but I actually feel like you need to Google this if y'all have not seen it because my description cannot give it justice. So it is literally unraveled. I think that's the word, right? Like unraveled. No, I would say unfurled. Unfurled. As she enters into the gala and the dress like transforms. She literally looks like she's wearing a different dress. It turns into this kind of greenish aqua

color dress. And long story short, it was this like homage to New York. She wanted to have her dress kind of patina, you know, change like the Statue of Liberty, from a copper bronze color to that green color. And there's all these cool things all over the dress that are tributes to New York City. And, you know, I just feel like we haven't had a whole lot of joy over the last couple of years with parties and beautiful City. And, you know, I just feel like we haven't had a whole lot of joy over the last couple of years with parties and beautiful dresses. And then Blake Lively gave it for all of us. Was the theme not about the Gilded Age or something? Yeah, it seemed very gilded to me. Yes, it was. Also, if you all have not seen this yet, you really need to look at the reactions of

her husband as her dresses unfurled. It was beautiful. Yes. And there's a whole crew around her on the steps and they're helping make this moment. And by the way, her gloves changed out too. And I've watched and rewatched to see how did she change the gloves too. But it was an amazing, perfect moment. Maybe the most perfect moment I've ever seen at the Met Gala. Some things are just magic. Magic, yes. So, Tam, what can you not let go of? So, there's this episode of this podcast.

The podcast is called The Experiment. It is from WNYC, so in the public radio family, and The Atlantic. The episode I am talking about is called Judge Judy's Law. Oh, I have not heard this. I actually really like this podcast. I will say it's a really good podcast. I know it's not one of our products, but I'm going to plug it. It's all about Judge Judy, whose courtroom was very, very fictional, but who had real

plaintiffs and real defendants and a real judge who retired to be like a super popular, famous television judge. Did either of you watch Judge Judy? Oh, yeah. I have seen like portions. I mean, how can you not watch it? She's an icon. It's just on. Yeah. Did you know, get this, that at her peak, Judge Judy had more viewers, better ratings than Oprah.

No way. No way. Yes. That's stunning. I feel like, Tam, that has to be like the peak of Judge Judy's career and maybe like, was it when Oprah was not as popular? No, no, no. I feel like Oprah was always popular.

So 10 million people a day watch Judge Judy. She has now gone to streaming, like so many people. But I mean, like, she's a kajillionaire. And they would find people by basically looking at the small claims court docket. Anyway, fascinating. A walk down memory lane. Even if you don't care about Judge Judy, you will find yourself caring about the Judge Judy show and like how they made it happen and how utterly unlike the U.S. justice system, Judge Judy's law was. Yeah. Wild. I have to listen to that one. I'm a real big fan of the podcast. I was going to say that show is really good. The experiment. I'll

have to bookmark it. Bookmark it. All right. that is a wrap. But keep listening to our podcast first. Then you can listen to whatever else you want. All right, that is a wrap for today. Our executive producer is Mathani Mathuri. Our editors are Eric McDaniel and Krishnadev Kalamar. Our producers are Lexi Schapittle, Elena Moore, and Casey Morrell. Thanks to Brandon Carter. I'm Tamara Keith.

I cover the White House. And I'm Claudia Grisales. I cover Congress. And I'm Asma Khalid. I also cover the White House. And I'm Claudia Grisales. I cover Congress. And I'm Asma Khalid. I also cover the White House. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.