The NPR Politics Podcast - NPR Politics Live From Des Moines: The Road To 2020

Episode Date: February 1, 2020

This is a special episode, recorded in front of a live audience at Hoyt Sherman Place in Des Moines, IA on Friday, January 31. The cast breaks down everything you need to know about the upcoming Iowa caucuses and how impeachment is affecting the race. This episode: political correspondent Asma Khalid, campaign correspondent Scott Detrow, political reporter Danielle Kurtzleben, senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro and IPR's lead political reporter Clay Masters. Email the show at [e-mail]. Find and support your local public radio station at npr.org/stations. Connect:Subscribe to the NPR Politics Podcast here.Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Find and support your local public radio station.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, I'm Jessica, and I'm here to see the Politics Podcast live in Des Moines. Hi, I'm Christy Seibert. I'm here to see the NPR Politics Podcast live. I'm Mark Rosenberry, and I'm here to see the NPR Politics Podcast. This podcast was recorded at... This podcast was recorded at... Things may have changed by the time you hear this. Things may have changed by the time you hear this. Things may have changed by the time you hear this. Things may have changed by the time you hear this. Things may have changed by the time you hear this.

Okay, here's the show. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast live. I'm Scott Detrow, I cover the presidential campaign. I'm Danielle Kurtzleben, I also cover the presidential campaign. I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And I'm Asma Khalid, I'm also covering the presidential campaign. And we're here in Iowa with Iowa Public Radio. And there's one other person on the stage. And it's Iowa Public Radio's Clay Masters. Hello, Clay. Hello, Scott. Thanks for having me. Well, thanks for being here. You guys all,

of course, know Clay. And as I was saying before, Clay and everybody else are such an instrumental part of our caucus coverage. We run into Clay all over the place. He helped us record a lot of the candidate interviews that we did. There were a lot more candidates then than there are now. It was a lot warmer than it is now. And here we are on Friday with the caucuses on Monday. And this is not the top political story in the country, which is mind-blowing. Impeachment is still happening in Washington, and as you probably heard, the Senate voted 49 to 51 today to not

call any witnesses. We are going to talk about this here in terms of how it relates to the campaign, and as part of the agreement that the Senate came to today, they decided that this is going to last into next week. There will be closing arguments on Monday, which means Sanders and Warren and Klobuchar and Michael Bennett, though he has kind of stopped campaigning in Iowa and focusing on New Hampshire, will be stuck in the Senate. Let's just talk for a moment about how this has affected the last few weeks of the campaign. I mean, let's just talk about what's going to happen on Monday for a second, right? So 11 a.m., they're expected to start.

This is going to last four hours. So 3 p.m. those senators will be allowed on caucus day to essentially, as of now, that's the plan, fly here to Iowa. They're lucky if they've got a chartered flight. If they don't, they might be in a bit of trouble. But I mean, this is a really precarious situation to be in. I mean, as of now, the schedule looks like they will likely make their caucus night parties in Iowa, but they're not necessarily able to do that last minute, you know, campaigning that they might want to have done on Monday. Right. And I think one thing I would say is that we've all kind of split up the last few days. Each of us is covering a different, at least Scott Osman, each of us has had a different

candidate we're covering. I've been following Elizabeth Warren's campaign out there, and of course she hasn't been there. And this is my third cycle of covering the caucuses, and this does not feel like a caucus right now. I mean, I've been out there, I got to see her husband Bruce Mann, her dog Bailey. He's real cute, I got him on the radio this morning. Danielle had a newscast story that just the soundbite was Bailey panting into the microphone.

I couldn't believe they let me do it. It was great. But also like Julian Castro, former HUD secretary, California representative and Iowa native Katie Porter. I saw her today. And the thing is, the Warren faithful are out there, but it is not the going up the roller coaster hill feeling that there usually is three days before the Iowa caucuses. And I mean, think about how many people have said that they're undecided still. I mean, you know, when we looked at national polling, three quarters of Democrats said that they were undecided. When you look at the caucuses for the last three cycles when they were competitive, 2004, 2008, 2016. 2008 and 2016, you still had a quarter of people or more saying that they were making up their mind

or made up their mind in the last week. In 2004, when John Kerry was down all those points a month out, suddenly he was able to win. And that year, 42% of people said that they made up their mind in the last week alone. And you wonder if it's a similar vibe of whether or not everything's going toward one person or not in these last few days. Clay, to me, the uncertainty, the fluidity of caucus goers has been like a central theme of this campaign. Of course, the last few weeks has really dominated the differences. You've been in Iowa for a campaign. Of course, the last few weeks has really dominated the differences. You've been in Iowa for a while. How different have the caucuses felt this time around? Well, this time around, it's basically been, you know, four years ago, you had Bernie

Sanders and Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side, people kind of knew what camp they were in on the Republican side, we're really watching Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. And you're kind of watching the Marco Rubio's and the Jeb Bushes of the world. But this time around, people, they're just perplexed. I mean, last weekend, I was out at events, and a woman said, I am literally laying awake at night trying to think about who I am going to caucus for. I mean, like, this is just, there's so much uncertainty. And we're talking about the senators who are back in Washington. This is giving a real advantage to former Vice President Joe Biden and the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg, who are just putting in a lot of effort, you know, what you would normally

expect besides the husbands and the dogs, you know, at this time of the cycle. Right. Well, what I would add to that is, I mean, we've all kind of talked about this ourselves, and we've talked about this in other podcasts. But, you know, you have to think, for example, Amy Klobuchar, who has had this recent pickup in polling and newspaper endorsements. She just got another one today in Iowa City. This is leaving her unable to capitalize on that here the way that she might. And similarly, Elizabeth Warren, who is a very effective speaker on the campaign trail, can't go out and weaponize that to her advantage. Right. I mean, you have three of the top five polling candidates who are stuck in Washington for the better part of the week, for the majority of the week. You know, if you're a campaign

strategist or a campaign manager, you are just really perplexed, apoplectic, really annoyed that you've put in all this time and effort. The candidates combined have spent about $50 million just in Iowa alone. And there's a reason for that. I mean, the last four candidates who have won the Democratic nomination have won Iowa. The last seven of nine have won Iowa. So to not be able to campaign in that final stretch is really difficult for a lot of them. So Asma, let's shift it more broadly and talk about the whole field. Of course, Andrew Yang and Buttigieg and Biden and others have been continuing to campaign uninterrupted. But, you know, especially over the next few days, it's about the campaign rallies,

but all the organizing that they've been training for and planning for. What are the campaigns trying to do between now and Monday evening? Well, organization means essentially that you're trying to ensure, you know, one part of it is that you're trying to ensure people you know are going to caucus for you, that they come out. But I think one thing that's really interesting to me this cycle, and Claire, I'd be curious what you think, is that campaigns are telling me that it's not as predictable as it was in 2016. So you can't just call your Clinton supporters and your Sanders supporters and know they're going to show up. They say a lot more this year will depend upon persuasion. And that means, like, you know, essentially who is able to better persuade you to join their camp that night. And they feel that that's fundamentally different and more important than it was before. Right, because part of the caucus process is that at the beginning, you get

these surrogates who are speaking on behalf of the presidential candidate who basically make the case for that candidate to try to persuade. And yeah, there might be more people being persuaded when they walk in because they're walking in saying, I don't know who I'm going to caucus for.

And it's even more important this year to hear that kind of persuasion when you don't have it being two going to caucus for. And it's even more important this year to hear that kind of persuasion when you don't have it being two candidates in this very kind of polar opposite camps. People knew that they were a Sanders person. They knew they were a Clinton person. There wasn't a whole lot of in-between. When you have this many candidates and you have this 15% threshold where if somebody doesn't get 15% in that first round,

then their voters have to go to somebody else, that makes it really hard because we're seeing even top candidates right now, like Elizabeth Warren, like Pete Buttigieg, who are right around that 15% mark. And if in some precincts they're just below that number, where they go on second choice is going to be really important. So I have questions for Clay and Danielle, but you did mention that 15% threshold, and I feel like we do have to note that because of that 15% threshold, we actually lost a candidate today, and we have to say bye-bye-bye to John Delaney,

the former Maryland congressman, who was the very first person to start campaigning in Iowa. He was running what, 2017? This, I can't believe. I mean, the guy started running in 2017 and then drops out days before people will actually vote. Come on! Well, he said that he just realized he wasn't going to hit that 15% threshold. Clay, how far ahead of the curve was John Delaney?

How far ahead of the curve? In terms of being here. In terms of his visionary... You can overdo Iowa. Let's just put it that way. I remember... Says the Iowan. He's a Nebraska. Come on. But I remember getting...

I remember tweeting something in 2017 about, hey, I'm at the state fair and I'm not doing a story about a politician. And I got an email from somebody that was with the John Delaney campaign. They're like, do you know about this Maryland congressman who is running? Was this the time that he was like, there was that meme of him riding down the slide? I can't remember.

He's been at the state fair so many times. Although, listen, like, not only did he drop out just days before the caucuses, he was just in Iowa. Maybe he still is here. He was on me and Asma's flight out here on Wednesday. He was there. Clay, which campaigns are best organized, have the most volunteers, and really have the resources to be out there making the calls and door knocks that they need to make? Well, certainly the three that have really been set up that are

still remaining are the Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg have some really good organization in the state. And so I think they're able to go out and continue to knock doors. But other campaigns have been playing catch up. And I know that, you know, Joe Biden has had a presence here for some time as well. But those three that I first mentioned, those have been the ones that you've been watching organized the most. You know, Warren in particular, the fact that she had such a head start with the amount of time and effort and campaign effort that she put into it, you know, it's going to be a real test Monday night because she's had such a vaunted organization. Scott, yeah, I was going to ask you actually a question because, you know, you've covered Bernie Sanders'

campaign for a while. And one of the things that they seem to talk a lot about tied to organization is turnout and the idea that they will be able to bring in new caucus goers. And I'm curious, you know, sort of A, what is that strategy? And B, do you have a sense of how effective it might be? Yeah, that's something that they've been very blunt about. I've heard him say it many times before, but I was at an event in Iowa City talking about the weirdness of impeachment. Bernie Sanders, not there, but he called in halfway through and just spoke to everybody on speakerphone. And he said, if we have a high turnout,

we win. If we have a low turnout, we don't win. Now, remember, four years ago, Bernie Sanders came within a fraction of a point of winning the Iowa caucuses. It was basically a tie. They thought they could turn out a lot of first-time caucus goers It was basically a tie. They thought they could turn out a lot of first-time caucus goers. They turned out a good chunk, but not as many as they thought the turnout was below that 2008 level. So I asked the campaign today, I said, hey, 239,000, all-time Democratic record. What for you is big turnout? What for you is successful? We feel really confident we can win. They said 250,000, which is a pretty high mark. So although I will say, so I was talking, uh, it was a few weeks ago to Ann Selzer, who is

kind of the guru of Iowa polling. And, uh, she was, yeah, we are that kind of crowd. Yes. Uh, she deserves it. Yeah. So, uh, but she, what she was telling me was totally divorced from anything having to do with Sanders or any other candidate. She was like, look, there are a lot of candidates. Democrats are energized. It would not at all be surprising for there to be record-breaking turnout, regardless of how great so-and-so's organization is. The Iowa Democratic Party, in fact, is expecting, anticipating a record-breaking turnout. And if you look at those three years, I think it's really interesting because in 2008, when they had the record turnout, 239,000, Barack Obama wound up winning here, wound up winning the

presidency. In 2016, that actually happened to be the second highest Iowa turnout for the Democratic caucuses at 171, even though it wasn't, you know, the highest. Hillary Clinton wound up winning the popular vote, but not winning the election. And in 2004, kind of a meager turnout, and John Kerry wound up losing. So you wonder, since it gets so much attention early on, if there's a degree of correlation between the level of enthusiasm that Democrats have and wind up showing and whether that translates into a general election in the fall. A couple other things I wanted to make sure that we hit on in this segment. And one is like the big themes of the last few days are how many people turn out,

does it break that 2008 record, and also just the muddled nature of the polls that we're seeing. I feel like every poll that comes out has a different person out front. They're all, those top four candidates are all kind of within the margin of error. Like Clay, how would you even characterize what we know and what we don't know about the polls right now? And go for it. This is the hardest question, so welcome to the stage. Thanks for having me on the show. I mean, it is very much, and you can feel it when you're out hearing these candidates speak.

I mean, I was in Perry last weekend where Bernie Sanders was there with filmmaker Michael Moore and Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez, and he was, they didn't, I saw that they had the microphones ready to do the question and answer from the audience, and I saw somebody give them like that, no, they didn't, I saw that they had the microphones ready to do the question and answer from the audience, and I saw somebody give him like that, no, we don't have time for this,

like we got to get down the road, and like at one point Bernie Sanders says, you know, we've got, we have a poll that shows us ahead by a point, but we can't, you know, we can't take anything for granted, and so the polls are there, you kind of have an idea of who's at the top, but you don't want to follow them too closely because they can only tell you so much. I feel like the trend lines, the long picture trend lines we've seen, Asma, is that Bernie Sanders has been steadily gaining ground

in recent weeks. Pete Buttigieg, of course, was leading the Iowa poll at one point, still up there, but may have come down from that high. What are the other trend lines that you're most curious about when you see the actual poll that matters? Yeah, I mean, I think other people have had their moments, right, whether it was Pete Buttigieg or Elizabeth Warren.

I think what we're seeing with Bernie Sanders is that he seems to be peaking at the right moment, which is right before the Iowa caucuses. I think the other thing that's really interesting to me about Bernie Sanders, and, you know, I should point out, I reported this story out from New Hampshire, so I don't know how exactly it translates here to Iowa. But I was really interested in the notion that a lot of progressives who initially were really hesitant about Bernie Sanders' run seemed to be coalescing around him. And these were people who told me, I don't know about him. You know, I don't know if it's his moment again. It seems like his ideas, like Medicare for all,

are now kind of part of the mainstream debate. Do I need him? They told you that a year ago. They told me that a year ago. It was exactly almost last January. And I went back to talk to some of these same voters, and I was amazed at how many of them had ultimately decided to stick with him. Not all of them. I mean, some of them are with Pete Buttigieg. Some of them are with Elizabeth Warren. But a number of them have seemed to come around to him. And we see that in the sort of high level also endorsements of progressive groups he's begun to get. One thing about Iowa this year that I'm noticing is it's easy to get a little hyped up on, man, this year it's all about electability. Yeah, I mean, Democrats do always freak out to some degree about electability. It's true. But

this year it feels like so many of the things we think about, hear about in primary seasons, and especially Iowa caucuses every year, are just on steroids this year. Like, yes, electability, but Democrats are much more worried about it than they were, than they have been in the past. But aside from that, that thing, it's a cliche at this point, Iowans take their caucuses seriously and their responsibility seriously. Very true, but it's almost combined with the electability created this like anxiety cocktail for a bunch of Democratic caucus goers of what if we pick wrong? We could give someone momentum and what if they can't win? Like it's almost analysis paralysis by so many of these people I've been

talking to. That's like a Mara term. I like it. That was a good term. At the same time, too, when you go to these Bernie Sanders events, so many of those people are still a part of what he likes to call the political revolution from four years ago. They're still and some of this has been kind of a just add water and he has some of his supporters there. But then, again, you go to these events

and you talk to somebody. I remember I was in, I think, Newton or Nevada. I can't remember. But I remember talking to somebody in I remember I was in, I think, Newton or Nevada. I can't remember. But I remember talking to somebody in the crowd. And so you're thinking you're going to caucus for Bernie Sanders? And they're like, yeah, but I also really like Pete Buttigieg. And we spent all this time talking about lanes. And I'm like, those are very different people.

You know that, right? And they're like, yeah, just checking it out, though. So on that note, before we take a quick break, we're going to do an incredibly unscientific poll. I don't want to do it candidate by candidate, but by round of applause, how many people here know exactly who they're going to caucus for on Monday?

That's higher than I would have expected. And how many people here do not know yet who they're going to caucus for? Hold on. I want to create one more category. How many people here do not know yet who they're going to caucus for? Hold on. I want to create one more category. How many people are unsure if they're going to caucus or know they're not going to? Really?

Huh. Okay. I mean, because I think it was only around 16% of voting age Iowans caucused in 2016. This is clearly a very politically engaged crowd. We're going to talk about that at length up next. First, we're going to take a quick break. Support comes from SimpliSafe Home Security. SimpliSafe offers comprehensive outdoor and indoor protection for your home.

They offer video verification and around-the-clock professional monitoring to help protect your home against intruders, fires, water damage, and carbon monoxide. The system can be self-installed, usually in under an hour. And with SimpliSafe, there are no contracts or hidden fees. Learn more about SimpliSafe and get free shipping on your order at simplisafe.com slash NPR politics. What does it take to start something from nothing? And what does it take to actually build it? I'm Guy Raz. Every week on How I Built This, I speak with founders behind some of the most inspiring companies in

the world. NPR's How I Built This, listen now. All right, we are back and we are going to talk all about Iowa. So before we get into the nuts and bolts of caucusing, Domenico, the most basic question possible, this is a very small sliver of the overall delegates that will be allocated. Why does Iowa matter so much? You know, look, I mean, there's 41 delegates that are going to vote at the National Convention.

That's only 1% of all of the delegates. The candidate who wins needs 1,991 delegates to actually be the nominee. So there's a long way to go after Iowa. So you look at that and say, well, then why does that matter? Why would Iowa and New Hampshire matter when they make up such a small sliver of the delegates? And while it's all about delegates, it's not about delegates. It's about momentum. It's about media narrative. It's about who looks like a person who can win. And that's why they put all these millions of dollars in. Seven of the last nine Democrats to win the nomination won Iowa, including the last four. So there's clearly a bounce that the candidate winds up

getting out of Iowa. And New Hampshire usually serves as either a reinforcer or a restart. So you wind up having somebody like Barack Obama, for example, in 2008. He wins Iowa. He looks like he's taking off. His poll numbers start to go way up in New Hampshire. And then suddenly the surprise happens. Hillary Clinton wins in New Hampshire. And that foretold a very long, drawn-out Democratic primary process. Unlike 2004, where John Kerry won both and pretty much had it all wrapped up. So I know that most people in the room here are probably going to be familiar with what we talk about next, but we get so many emails about this from listeners all over the country who

are still a little bit confused. So Clay, I'm going to ask you this. Explain it like you're explaining to your grandma or maybe a slightly drunk guy at the bar you're talking to. Two different audiences, but I think the same approach. I have so much experience explaining the caucuses to drunk people at bars. Oh, okay. Forget your grandma. Let's do that. How is this going to work Monday evening? So basically, people across the state that want to show up in caucus will go to their neighborhood gymnasium or church basement

or in some smaller communities, you know, like the little community center, and they will go to their caucus with their friends and neighbors. Maybe they're not friends. Maybe they're just neighbors. Maybe they won't be friends after the caucusing is over. And then you have to, like, hear from people that are making the case for their candidate, and then you have to decide what candidate you are going to support. And some people go in there with their minds made up. A lot of people, as we're saying, will go in and not really know. And then you break off into these preference groups. And if 15% of the room doesn't, or if each candidate doesn't get 15%, then they are

no longer viable, right? So then that candidate cannot go on and there is another alignment. And so this isn't going in, you know, over your lunch hour to fill in an oval or push a button. This is like having to see people face-to-face and make a decision in front of everyone. Two new rules this year, though, that are really important to mention is that there are only two rounds this year. So the second round, the second alignment is final. Also, because of protests from the Sanders campaign in 2016, there are now going to be paper backups for each person who goes in. It's not just sorting to your corners. You're writing down actually who the person will be because there were about a dozen precincts that were decided by a coin flip, literally by a coin flip in 2016.

That's why they've wound up putting paper ballots into effect also. Danielle, I do not know how many people in the theater know this, but you are from Iowa. Yep. Yeah. And one of the things that you stress to us all the time in the newsroom and Domenico, both of you, you are both from different angles, the champions of this fact. It is like a small sliver of registered voters who actually show up. And Daniel, you're telling us that when you were growing up, it was like kind of a mysterious thing that not many people did. Yeah. I mean, so I grew up in or just outside of the town of Taitonka, which is in North Central. Yeah. I don't know who that was, but you're great.

But listen, it's a very rural area, and I imagine that has something to do with this, but at any rate, I texted my sisters today, like, do you guys remember adults talking about caucusing growing up? And my big sister wrote back, no, no. I've asked my parents, like, did you guys know anyone who caucused? No. And I asked my best friend from high school, I was like, did you? And she said, well, there was that one family. The caucus family. broader turnout patterns of the types of people who caucus or vote or whatever. But aside from that, caucusing, sort of like what Clay and Scott were getting at, is it's necessarily a kind of

extroverted thing. And it's a thing where you have to show everyone the party you're in and who you support, which can be super awkward, especially if you go to if you're from a town of like 250 people these are all some potentially big things to show your friends and that is the distinction here is that the Democrats do it differently than the Republicans there's still going to be a Republican contest this cycle other early states like Nevada and South Carolina have cancelled their Republican early nominating contests but Republicans do it a lot differently, and I went to one four years ago.

They don't, you know, there's still the surrogates that get up and say, this is why you should support Ted Cruz or Jeb Bush or John Kasich. And then they don't go into corners, they get little slips of paper and they write it down on a little secret ballot. And then they all fold it up and they put it in a hat

and somebody counts them out and then everybody goes home. I wish the people listening could see like the amazing hand gestures. All of those steps. He just did like all this origami. Seriously, one more thing on this topic. I went to a small town caucus in 2016. And like there was a husband and wife who ended up at separate tables. She was at the Hillary Clinton table and he had been at

Martin O'Malley. Martin O'Malley was not viable. And so he decided to just abstain and not pick a table. And I remember the kind of bitterness between them because she was just like, come over here. Somebody walked home. Yeah. But also like the pastor of the Lutheran church in town was at this table and his parishioners are at this table. I mean, it does make you wonder if the results would be different for the Democrats if there was that level of secrecy. Totally. That Republican caucuses have, right? And one thing that I find interesting, though, is just Iowa itself is so temperamentally different than some other places in the country.

And I think one of the things— Dominica's from Queens. You're kidding. That was the nice way of talking about the fact that in the newsroom we were joking about what if the caucuses in the same way took place somewhere else, right? We were like,

Florida man brings gator to caucuses. You know, like... So, on that point, and please everybody do not boo me when i ask this question at this point asma there was been there's been a lot of talk particularly from some candidates more than we've seen before and i'm thinking of a former hud secretary julian castro of saying you know what i always shouldn't go first uh for a lot of different reasons can you walk us through kind of that conversation that we had yeah i, I mean, his criticism was that Iowa demographically, specifically racially, just doesn't represent the Democratic Party electorate. And that is true. In 2016,

we did a pretty cool project. I remember Domenico helped me with this as well, where we essentially mapped out a whole bunch of demographic data, not just race, but also religious levels, socioeconomic background. And we assessed what state would be the quote unquote, most demographically representative state. Our last podcast show was in the state of Illinois. So they were very happy to hear about this. But the point was, you know, and this is something that I think is, it raises, I think, really interesting questions for the Democratic Party,

in part because what Danielle was talking about with this analysis paralysis, I thought that was such like a perfect way of describing this, is this sense of anxiety, I think, both here and in New Hampshire of, well, what if we don't choose the person A who's right? Or in this situation, which would be extremely rare, what if the nominee loses both Iowa and New Hampshire? And I think there is a sense this year, more than previous years, that that could be plausible, in part because we've had a candidate like Joe Biden's campaign pretty clearly early on kind of set expectations of, hey, you know, we might not do as well as folks expect in some of these states. And this is me paraphrasing that.

I think since then, he has poured a lot more money and a lot more time at Iowa. And I think that conversation hit peak when Pete Buttigieg was leading for that couple weeks time in both Iowa and New Hampshire. And because he had such a deficit with voters of color, if he were to lose the nomination but have won two of the whiter states in the country, there would have been a much bigger and broader conversation about whether Iowa and New Hampshire would keep their first in the nation statuses. As we start to think about what comes beyond Iowa, there was some news today that we should briefly talk about and explain. Domenico Rossman, I don't know which one of you wants to explain, but the Democratic National Committee, after saying for months, we are not changing our guidelines for debate qualification, decided today to change its guidelines for debate qualification.

Which one of you wants to walk us through what actually happened? Yeah, so, I mean, to be fair to the DNC, they had said a number of months ago that they were likely to change the debate qualifications as the contest moved further on. I think what hit some folks by surprise and hit some critics, I think of some of the supporters you know, supporters of, say, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, or Julian Castro, was that this is coming now when these candidates

have dropped out of the race. The basic change to this is that come the Nevada debate, they have now eliminated the individual donor threshold, which means that a candidate like Michael Bloomberg could potentially qualify for that debate. And, you know, look, it's a touchy subject because this change comes at a moment where you wonder, would the race look differently if this requirement had been there from the get-go? Though the guidelines, you had to raise money from a certain amount of people and you had to hit certain qualifications in the polls. And as candidates stopped being able to qualify for the debates, more often than not, it was the polling that kept them out of there. Cory Booker, Julian Castor were

not hitting the polling marks that they needed. I think both of them hit the fundraising marks. But all the campaigns, every single campaign said they had changed the way they were running for president to meet these guidelines, to fundraise more. Tom Steyer, even though he's mostly self-funding his campaign, spent a lot of money to get the donations needed, spending more money than he actually raised trying to solicit donations on Facebook and places like that. Michael Bloomberg certainly has the resources to do that pretty quickly if he wanted to, and it seems like he had made a strategic decision to not want to be in these debates,

to kind of appear above the fray. So I'm not quite sure this is like a big favor to Mike Bloomberg, having to kind of suddenly be on stage on par with the other candidates, as opposed to running the ads that run before and after the debate, where they all criticize each other. Yeah, because he's able to get an unfiltered microphone because he, you know, is able to run a quarter billion dollars in ads when these other candidates aren't even able to question him or quiz him on this.

So, you know, he's not one of the people who needs a platform like some of these other lower polling candidates did. And this is just a reminder that after Monday, this race is going to change in significant ways. After New Hampshire, we are talking about, after the early waves of states, we are talking about multiple states having elections on the same day.

Domenico, what's the percentage of delegates that will be doled out in March alone? 50% of all the delegates will be allocated by the end of March. Only 5% of the delegates will be allocated after the first four states. And by the end of April, we'll have 90% of the delegates already allocated because mostly California moved up from last on the primary calendar in 2016 to Super Tuesday, which is March 3rd. And on March 3rd, you're going to have a third of all delegates at stake, up for grabs, including California and Texas, two huge states. So, you know, by the end of April, it's very likely we're going to have a pretty good idea of who's going to be the nominee.

All right, we're going to take a quick break. And when we get back, it is time for our favorite segment and yours, Can't Let It Go. Why is it so hard to make new habits? Are pets really that great for us? Why can't I remember where I put my keys? Would you rather be given an award or a bonus? Answers to these questions and more every week on Hidden Brain from NPR. And we are back and now it's time for one of the most fun parts of the show, Can't Let It Go, where we all share something we cannot stop thinking about this week, politics or otherwise. So I'll go first. I'm going to talk about dogs. Big fan of dogs, big fan of politics. This story combines the two of them. I was thinking

a lot about the first campaign I covered start to finish was the 2010 Pennsylvania governor's race, where the guy who ended up winning, Tom Corbett, was a very awkward campaigner. He clearly did not like campaigning, but he loved interacting with dogs. When he was marching in a parade or at an event and someone had a dog, he would make a beeline to the dog, he would pet the dog, and he would say, four paws, four votes. And my wife was also a reporter covering this race, and she'd be like, that makes no sense. Humans have four limbs, too. What is he talking about?

But he'd be like, four votes. So, a video surfaced this week of one Michael Bloomberg interacting with a dog, and it appeared like he had never met a dog in his life. All right, so it's a video. Mike Bloomberg is shaking the hands of a guy. His dog is with him. Bloomberg turns to the dog,

and instead of shaking his hand, he shakes the snout of the dog. What are you doing? The dog does seem to be strangely enjoying this interaction. So my dog, like, was kind of antisocial and did not like new people, so I see this and I'm like, oh my god, don't grab the teeth of the dog! Alright, so the Bloomberg campaign has the resources to respond, and it does, and it puts together a quick ad that it posts online where dogs are

talking they're moving their mouths and the voices are dubbed in here of people instead of the dogs mike bloomberg is the man to lead us he will create more jobs mike's not afraid of the nra not one bit trust me mike will get it done, yeah. Get it done? Yes. He does not. Hey, you made this point that, like, what is the campaign expenditure for the peanut butter? Whose job was it to give peanut butter to all the dogs and then imitate

their voices? And, like, how did they know what voice to use for what dog? Some weeks it's hard to pick, you can't let it go. Some weeks it's very easy. Asma, how about you? So mine is not necessarily as lighthearted. But one of the things I do a lot when I drive around Iowa is I listen to different podcasts,

obviously in addition to listening to IPR, always on my dial, but, you know. Lately, I've also been listening to some podcasts. And one thing I can't let go of lately has been Hillary Clinton and how much it doesn't seem like the country can let her go. And there she was. She was interviewed on this podcast that I've been listening to called Campaign HQ. It's by David Plouffe, who was involved with the Obama campaign. And he interviewed her. And in it, you know, she made some comments about some of the candidates in the field, but it just reminded

me that every time she opens her mouth, it seems like she's still such a part of like the political culture in this country. And I don't fully always understand why that's the case. You know, I know that she has a documentary that's coming out in which, you know, she made some comments about Bernie Sanders and those kind of took on a life of their own. I know, Scott, you were out with Donald Trump yesterday at a rally. It seems he too cannot let her go and had some comments about her. He talked more about her than any of the Democrats running for president in 2020, just repeatedly. So he clearly misses her, it seems. But I just find it so fascinating as to why the country can't seem to let her go. That's a whole episode.

There's a lot there. Let's do it. Clay, what about you? What can you not let go of? So it's been really busy right now because of the caucuses, right? So I've been driving around and I've been thinking about a new movie that apparently is going to come out. So there's a movie that meant a lot to me as a child in high school. It's called The Big Lebowski. And if you follow me on Twitter, that's my go-to gif, is the dude,

right? And so I've been driving around, though, thinking about this spinoff about the Jesus. He's this other character that's in The Big Lebowski. And part of the great thing about the Jesus is you kind of know a little bit about him, but you don't need to get too much into it. And now they're going to have this spinoff movie about it. And I don't know if I really want to watch that. And so, I mean, like, I'm going to listen to, you know, Pete Buttigieg speak, and I'm trying to file these stories, and it just keeps coming back in my head.

And it's like, I just don't know how I feel about it. And I don't think I'm going to be able to really think about it until the caucuses are over. Have you considered... It's not done by the Coen brothers, too. It's John Turturro who's going to direct it. Have you considered asking the candidates how they feel about this? When Elizabeth Warren is back, that'll be my first question. Domenico, other than this tired trend of rebooting 90s material, what can you not let go of?

What I can't let go of is, interestingly, two hours uk just brexited for real it happened it's over actually happened after years of you know saying it's going to do it and then didn't uh they did and it's just been fascinating to watch to hear about it i still don't really understand it. And, you know, I also think about, you know, when countries make these big decisions about what they're going to do and sort of jump off that cliff. And, you know, I mean, you know, parts of America have tried this before. It didn't go so well for the entirety of the country. But, you know, whether we're deep, well, but, you know, whether we're... A little deep. Well, it's just saying. But, you know, when you look at Brexit and you think about what they will wind up doing,

I'm not 100% sure still, like, what that's going to mean for the U.S. relationship. Danielle is big into trade and thinking about that kind of relationship. I mean, there's no, no you know telling how this is going to upset the global climate you know it's just it's really interesting it is i was talking to a british friend earlier today we're just messaging and you know she told me that it feels like it's been so long coming that at this point it's like she's emotionless about the actual

decision because it's just been going on for so long that it almost feels i mean this is sort of me paraphrasing her but it's just like anticlimactic at this point. Well, because the vote was in 2016, right? Yeah. It was two and a half years ago. No. Three and a half years ago. God.

This is, that's like me when I- I can't figure out time, man. I think in election cycles now. So it's like, someone said to me, how long ago was 2012? I'm like, two years ago. Yeah. Oh. I think like eight million. Two election cycles. It's like half a million. Two years ago and 3, how long ago was 2012? I'm like, two years ago. Oh, I think like eight million.

Two election cycles. Two years ago and 3,000 years ago. Yes! Danielle, what can you not let go of? All right, this is kind of both a campaign-related can't let it go and a lifelong can't let it go. And I'm here in Iowa, so we're doing this. So every time I have heard Amy Klobuchar on the campaign trail, or

relatively often, she brings up her celebrity endorsements. By which I mean she brings up fairly often the mayor of fertile Iowa. Now some of you might know where I'm going with this already because this is Iowa. But fertile Iowa is a town of, god I don't know, two or three hundred people. It's real tiny, and it's up north central, right around where I grew up. Now, every time she mentions that, my mind starts to wander, because here's the thing. Near Fertile, there is a town called Manly. Manly is also a town of like a few hundred. Now, growing up, there was always this legend that some newspaper editor somewhere got to write the faded and famed headline he wanted to write all of his life, which is

manly man marries fertile woman. Exactly. Someone out there knew where I was going. Okay. So I have been thinking about this for my whole life and wondering if that was true. You don't want to know if it is or not though, right? Well, okay. So like I had never actually seen the headline. So I Googled around and various newspaper columnists have looked for this as well. And the thing is in 2007, they claimed to have found it, but I did not see proof. They just said it happened at one point. They found some 100-something-year-old woman who said, yes, I was the fertile woman. Anyway, my point is that if anybody out there can find this headline

and send me photographic evidence of it, a 37-year-long quest to know if this exists will be complete. Or maybe there is a manly man who married a fertile woman, and you could write the headline. That's true. Just send me this. All right, that's all. Hope never dies.

Thanks to our partners, Iowa Public Radio, all of their staff, and volunteers who made tonight possible. You can support this podcast by supporting them, your local public radio station. And a huge thank you to all the staff at this beautiful theater, Hoyt Sherman Place. We couldn't have done this show tonight without Joanna Palowska and Jessica Goldstein from the NPR Events team. The show and the podcast are produced by Barton Girdwood, Barbara Sprunt, and Chloe Weiner. Our social engagement editor is Brandon Carter, and our engineer tonight was John Pemble. Our editors are Shirley Henry, Mathani Mathuri, and Eric McDaniel.

Special thanks to Lexi Shabittle and Dana Farrington. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the presidential campaign. I'm Scott Detrow. I also cover the campaign. I'm Danielle Kurtzleben. I also also cover the campaign. I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And I'm Clay Masters, reporter at Iowa Public Radio. And thank you, Iowa, for being with us for the NPR Politics Podcast. Hey! Hey! Hey! Hey!

Hey! Hey!