The NPR Politics Podcast - On The Ground In Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania And Wisconsin

Episode Date: October 30, 2020

Reporters share their reporting from key states ahead of election day in this special podcast episode.This episode: campaign correspondent Asma Khalid, senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro, reporter Lucy Perkins of WESA in Pittburgh, reporter Maayan Silver of WUWM in Milwaukee, national correspondent Kirk Siegler, and national desk correspondent Greg Allen.Connect:Subscribe to the NPR Politics Podcast here.Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Listen to our playlist The NPR Politics Daily Workout.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Find and support your local public radio station.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey everyone, it's Asma Khalid, and before we start the show, I've got a request. We are days away from a presidential election that was completely upended by the pandemic. It changed how we reporters at NPR had to cover this election, and it made our partnerships with local NPR stations more essential than ever. In today's show, we're taking you across the country in the final days of this campaign by speaking with member station reporters in those places. All of us depend on your financial support, and we know that a lot of you are struggling right now. But if you are in a position to do so, please take a moment and donate to your

local NPR station. You'll be funding all of us on this podcast and the reporters in your local communities. Just head to donate.npr.org slash politics to get started. This is Molly from Minneapolis, Minnesota. I'm currently trying to hold back my laughter after hearing the podcast episode where my partner of four years talked about hypothetically proposing to me. And hearing this four days after I said yes. This podcast was recorded at 11 26 a.m eastern time on Friday October 30th. Things may have changed by the time you hear this podcast but hopefully I will continue laughing for many more years with this wonderful person. I'm glad it worked out. Congratulations to you all. Hey there,

it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the presidential campaign. I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And Domenico, you are out today with your final pre-election electoral map analysis. It published online this morning at NPR.org. And it shows Biden with an edge, but it still looks like this race is awfully tight. Oh my gosh, this means election day is really close, Asma. Yeah, look, I mean, it's been the story

the entirety of the year, especially as the coronavirus has kind of taken hold through the country. But Biden has an advantage here, you know, with states that are leaning toward him or likely to go for him, he has 279 electoral votes. And President Trump is only at 125. Of course, you need 270 to become president. And just because states are leaning in Biden's direction doesn't necessarily mean they're going to go in his direction. Remember what happened in 2016. And I think it's important

to point out that a lot of the toss up states, all of the toss up states, in fact, are within the margin of error when in the polling. So you mentioned 2016, Domenico, and it does feel like some of this dynamic is similar to where Donald Trump was on the eve of the election four years ago. Do you feel like the dynamic is different this time? Well, you know, there's a lot of counter, you know, veiling feelings on that. I mean, I think in my head, logically, I know that there are some major differences. I think, you know, instinctively, it feels very similar. But that's only because we haven't really run another presidential election since, right? So, you know, yes, the narrative was that Donald Trump was getting outspent on the ads,

that he was, you know, losing in multiple states that were key to the election. And the same thing is kind of happening again. I will say, though, there are some big differences. Number one, when we have seen obviously with this national lead, Joe Biden's national lead has now been bigger than Hillary Clinton's lead and not as volatile as the 2016 race has been. But what that's translated to is a lot of these states that are traditionally Republican states have become either lighter red or now in the toss-up category. Arizona, Texas, Georgia, they're all states that are toss-ups that have been traditionally Republican. And places like Montana, Missouri, Alaska, even places like Kansas, Indiana, that are where Trump is underperforming in all of those places, that's because of how Joe Biden is doing

mostly with white voters, especially white voters in the suburbs and with college degrees. And you wonder, if that's happening in all of those states, is that going to wash into margins in red counties that ultimately give Biden an easy win? So, Dominica, you mentioned some, you know, traditionally light red states that seem to be shifting. And one state in particular that you made a move on that caught my eye is Texas. You have it now listed as a toss up. And I want you to explain that because I feel like Democrats have been crowing about Texas going blue for years. And frankly, I think a lot of analysts thought that was still some years away.

Yeah, well, Texas is one of those states that, you know, catches everybody's eye because it just sits there. It's such a major part of this electoral map. And yes, you know, with a lot of hesitancy moved it to toss up this time. And look, its history of voting Republican has kept me from really moving it that direction. It hasn't gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976. So this is not a state that has a long history or any history, frankly, in the last two decades of voting for a Democrat statewide. So, you know, but you can't really dismiss all of the confluence of polls and how close things have been and not to mention early voting there that has been sky high through the roof. Lots of young voters, lots of Latinos,

and they have already, with the early vote, surpassed the 2016 total vote in Texas. I saw that. So no one knows how exactly this is going to play out. I can say with pretty good confidence it looks like it's going to be close. If you had to give a finger on the scale, you would still push it in Trump's direction because there's just a whole lot of Republicans and rural Republicans in Texas. All right, we are going to take a quick break. And when we get back, we'll bring in some of our all-star reporters from around the

country to hear what they have been reporting on the ground in some key states. Support for NPR and the following message come from America Media, a Jesuit media ministry and producer of the new podcast, Voting Catholic. A look at what's at stake in the 2020 election from real people who struggle with the issues and bring their faith to the voting booth. For in-depth analysis of the election and to learn how Catholics are thinking about their vote, visit AmericaMagazine.org. This message comes from NPR sponsor Neon, presenting Totally Under Control, from Academy Award-winning filmmaker Alex Gibney and directors Ophelia Harutunyan and Susan Hillinger. Filmed in secrecy over the last five months, the three directors interviewed countless scientists and government whistleblowers to expose the truth about the COVID pandemic.

Now available on digital, VOD, and Hulu. U.S.-born Latinos are turning 18 in record numbers. We finally have power. We have the most voters under the age of 30 of any other racial and ethnic group. First-time Latinx voters have their say. Listen to the Code Switch podcast on NPR. And we're back. And we're joined now by Mayan Silver of member station WUWM in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Hey there, Mayan. Hey there. And we're also joined by Lucy Perkins of WESA in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Hey there, Lucy. Hi. So thank you both for coming on the show. You know, we are less than five days till the end of this campaign season, and with so few days left, you know, I am curious what the vibe on the ground feels like for both of you. Mayan, do you want to go first? Sure. I mean, seriously, the vibe on the ground, it's kind of insane. Like, to give you a little context, the Packers are playing the Vikings on November 1st, and Lambeau Field will be empty. I'm not really a football fan, but my understanding is that that would have been a big game.

Yeah. But, you know, hospitals, on the other hand, are filling up. So while Lambeau will be empty, we've got a problem, really big problem right now with COVID numbers spiking. And, you know, that's the backdrop of the election right now. That's kind of similar. I mean, the Packers reference does not really apply to Pittsburgh, obviously, but there's a lot of anxiety here in Pittsburgh. But I know that that is being felt across the state. I mean, people are just kind of bombarding me on Twitter and in my email about how to make sure that their votes are being counted. They have questions about like making sure that their mail-in ballots are

filled out right, all of that stuff. So people are really nervous. Obviously, Pennsylvania is a really key state, as you guys said earlier, and our COVID numbers are up too. We have seen some record highs in recent days across the state. And we should point out that, you know, you both are in these critical states, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. These are two states that you could say were part of or are part of the so-called blue wall that crumbled in 2016. And Domenico Democrats are clearly trying to win these states back. So how do they play into, you know, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden's calculations? Well, this is a key place. I mean, this area, this region is a place that's chock full of white voters without college degrees, the kind of voters that used to vote Democratic in lots of past presidential

elections, but now have flipped culturally to vote pretty strongly for Republicans. And Joe Biden is looking like he is cutting into some of these margins with Trump. If you look at the polls, he has been doing quite well in especially Wisconsin doing also pretty well in Pennsylvania, though the polls have closed there a bit. These are two key states to especially Joe Biden's prospects. Pennsylvania may be a tipping point state as strategists on both parties see it. Yeah, that's right. I mean, you have both President Trump and Joe Biden intending to campaign in Pennsylvania over the weekend, right? These are the final days of the

race. But Lucy and Mayan, I want to ask you about something that you both brought up. And that's, you know, this uptick in COVID cases. You know, the pandemic, it feels like has been this huge force throughout the entire election season. And how have you all heard it playing out, you know, politically with the voters that you've been speaking with? I mean, COVID is a really big issue here. And I'm sure everyone has been paying attention to these suburban voters, and how they may be flipping toward Biden. But the way that I'm seeing that play out here in the suburbs of Pittsburgh, which are pretty red, Pittsburgh's a blue stronghold, but it gets Republican pretty quickly, is that, you know, a lot of suburban

women are kind of over trusting Trump to handle this pandemic. So they will be voting for Biden. I've also heard other Republicans say, you know, I don't know if I can really stomach voting for Biden, but I definitely am not voting for Trump. They're still planning on voting. They're just going to vote for Republicans farther down the ballot and perhaps leave the top of the ticket blank. So it definitely sounds like there are a lot of voters who seem to be shifting away or soured on Trump from what you're picking up there more than Trump sort of going on offense. Yeah, I think that is definitely fair. And one thing that you are seeing here too is after the 2016 election, there were all of these small grassroots groups of retired, older white women who have kind of said enough, and they started their own grassroots groups and have been organizing ever since. And I think that's a really good indication. You know, I was I was emailing with one voter in in the suburbs here. And I said, How does this feel different than 2016? And she said, Well, in 2016, I wouldn't be emailing with reporters because I wasn't really engaged. And now I am. Wow. Yeah. You know, on that note, we have a pretty standard poll in Wisconsin, the Marquette poll. One of the latest ones shows that about 60 percent of people disapprove of Trump's handling of the pandemic. But, you know, I've spoken with Trump supporters and, you know, not a lot is

shifting their support for him. So at the same time, you know, Lucy, that you're finding that there are some people that are shifting, there's definitely a block of people that are basically, you know, like, we basically like everything that he's doing. You know, I spoke with some voters at a Menards. There was a guy named Alan Ciesmeyer, and he voted for Trump in 2016, and we'll vote for him again. But he admitted that Trump probably should have been wearing a mask when he got COVID. But he doesn't feel the government should be regulating people's behavior, kind of like a don't tread on me kind of mindset. I don't think he talked up the importance of them as much as he probably should have. But, you know, again, you know, it's up to us to solve this problem.

I don't think it's a it's not a federal issue. I mean, we have a mask mandate in the state of Wisconsin by the governor and that's not being enforced. So how do you enforce it across the country? You know, I just think we have to be responsible for our own actions. And it's up to us to police ourself and do the right thing. A lot of conservatives, they just thought you should, if you're part of a high risk group, you should just protect yourself. And they were more supportive of the economy opening up. Well, you would expect that Republicans would stick pretty strongly with President Trump. We've certainly seen that nationally and across lots of states.

But what are you hearing from swing voters? Have you picked up on anything, maybe even in Milwaukee County, which I know is one of the most polarized counties in the country, you know, that you're hearing there? Is there any hesitancy with President Trump and how he's handled COVID? Or are they sort of sticking with him? Yeah, you know, what's interesting is that I think there's a really strong movement in Milwaukee County right now. You see a lot of Biden signs. You see a lot of people trying to change the COVID landscape. For people who oppose President Trump and some swing voters that I've spoken to in a little more suburban areas outside of Milwaukee,

they just really say they need a respect for the facts and for the science. And they're really turning on empathy and basic human decency as kind of an issue for them. Before we let you go, Mayan and Lucy, I have a question for both of you. You know, you're both in states that have had lawsuits that have bubbled up in recent days, you know, even up to the Supreme Court around the regulation and the counting of mail-in ballots. And I'm curious if the decision in those cases, if you can just explain that for a minute, has at all affected what the race or the campaigns feel like on the ground. Well, in Pennsylvania, we've just, the state has just been like riddled with election-related lawsuits. And one of the most

recent ones was allowing mail-in ballots that were postmarked by election day and received up until 5 p.m. on Friday, November 6th to be counted. So that is something that's now allowed. I'm not seeing a huge change on the ground here. I mean, for so long, we've just been hearing from Republicans that they don't trust the mail-in ballot system and from Democrats that you need to vote by mail and you need to vote early. I will say that our top election official here in Pennsylvania said just a couple days ago, you know, the mail's too slow at this point to get your ballot in. I don't care what any sort of court ruling says, get your ballot in now, even if you have a few extra days to make sure that your county officials receive it,

just drop it off in person right now. Yeah, it's kind of the same thing in Wisconsin, Lucy. So the decision that the Supreme Court came out with was basically blocking an extension of about six days for people to return their mail-in ballots in Wisconsin. So now people have to return them by 8 p.m. on election day. But, you know, it's going to affect things because there will be ballots that won't be counted because of that ruling. But we've known about this election. We had a pandemic election in April, the primary. And, you know, people, Democrats especially, have been really pushing people to make a plan and do all that stuff. So, you know, there will be procrastinators and that kind of thing and people who haven't returned their ballots. But both sides kind of say that it's this we've known about this for a long time. And one more thing. Wisconsin is so narrowly decided. You know, Trump won by fewer than 23000 votes in 2016. And so, like, as the Democratic head of the Democratic Party said, you know, even a gust of wind could change the results in

Wisconsin. So, you know, everything matters. Yeah, look, a gust of wind could certainly change not just the votes, but how much people decide to go out and vote as Republicans are banking on so much vote on Election Day. And by the way, Lucy, the people's, you know, feelings about election day, I wonder how they're going to be affected, because the Steelers are undefeated right now, 6-0, and they're playing the Ravens, their arch enemy. So that's Sunday at one o'clock, you know, the things could be very different for them and how they feel by Tuesday. That's true.

All right, well, it is time for a break. Thank you both, Mayan and Lucy. We really appreciate it. Thank you so much. Thanks. And good luck to both of you reporting on these final last few days. When we get back, we're going to talk about two more key states, Florida and Arizona. This message comes from NPR sponsor Simon & Schuster, publishers of The Upswing, How America Came Together a Century Ago and How We Can Do It Again, by sociologist and political scientist Robert D. Putnam. Putnam's analysis of economic,

social, and political trends over the past century demonstrate how we have gone from an individualistic I-society to a more communitarian we-society and then back again, and how we can become a stronger, more unified nation. The Upswing by Robert D. Putnam, wherever books are sold. On the next episode of Louder Than a Riot, how a law meant to control the mob changed the mixtape game forever. Gangsta grills is the biggest thing arguably ever in the mixtape's history. Don't tell me that what we're doing is wrong. Listen now to Louder Than a Riot, the podcast from NPR Music.

And we're back. And we're joined now by NPR's Kirk Siegler and NPR's Greg Allen. Thank you both for coming on the podcast. Hi, Asma. Sure. So, Greg, let's start with you. You are in Florida, a notorious swing state that is known for these razor-tight margins. And it feels like maybe that's going to be the same story again this year.

You know, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden were campaigning in the state yesterday. Does it feel to you that it is just as tight as it has been in previous years? Well, the fact that both the candidates are here, and of course, we've got their surrogates have been here, and the running mate for Biden, Kamala Harris, is going to be here this weekend. It's a sign of how close it is. Polls show it's not quite as close as it was four years ago. For that reason, I think people are hoping that it won't run into the late hours. But even four years ago, they called the vote here for Donald Trump in Florida well before midnight. And so I think we'll get some results out of here fairly quickly on election night, and that will tell us something

about what's going to happen in the rest of the country, presumably. And Kirk, you've been reporting from Arizona, which I am fascinated with, because it's not traditionally considered to have been as, I guess, as close or as competitive as a state as we're seeing this year. So explain the dynamic there on the ground. A lot of what we're seeing change, and as Domenico said, you know, moving into a toss-up state, leaning red, leaning blue, toss-up, can be owed to what's going on in Maricopa County. This is, you know, the rock bed conservative county, or it was, home to, you know, Joe Arpaio, the anti-immigration sheriff. But what you're seeing going on now is a lot of new, younger people moving in, a lot of new residents

coming from states like California where they may have been priced out. That's changing the voting patterns quite a bit. And you have a lot of Latinos who are coming of voting age. And certainly it's not a monolithic voting block. But, you know, we are seeing certainly more Latinos vote for Democrats. And it's looking as though the state is very much in play for Joe Biden this year. So these are both states, Florida and Arizona, that Donald Trump won in 2016. But, you know, this year, Domenico, it feels like those states are very competitive. I mean, that's what your own electoral map analysis shows. So strategy-wise, you know, how would you describe how the candidates have been thinking about these particular states?

Well, first of all, this is the Sun Belt now. You know, and it's sort of this – it's typical of the diversifying that we're seeing across a lot of the southern states. You take Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, and of course, Florida has always been there, where you're seeing a lot of this diversifying and where now we're seeing Democrats really try to play. And a place like Arizona, where two-thirds of the vote comes from one county in Maricopa County, you know, Joe Biden has really focused in on Phoenix, which is right there in the middle of it all and trying to turn out the vote there where Hillary Clinton, remember, lost the state by three and a half percentage points.

There's a Democrat on the ballot, Mark Kelly, for the Senate race who's doing very well. Florida, a little bit different, different kinds of Latinos in the state and 10 different media markets, a quarter billion dollars or more spent on television ads in that state. Really tough, always close. Right. And Joe Biden is outspending Donald Trump significantly here this year, Joe Biden and his friends on the Democratic side. We're seeing some things interesting as well. Donald Trump has been in Arizona multiple times in the last couple of weeks, but has largely skipped Phoenix, shunning the cities. It appears that some Republicans, anyway, may be even writing off Maricopa County or at least Blue Phoenix, thinking that if you get a big rural turnout,

like President Trump did in Arizona, a favorable rural turnout, that if the election in Arizona is close, that may be enough if he holds down his losses in places, of course, like Tucson and Phoenix. I mean, Kirk, that's a really unconventional strategy. Yeah, well, this is 2020, right? A majority of the vote comes from Maricopa County, isn't that right? It's what pundits are trying to explain or trying to wrap their heads around why Donald Trump would be doing this. Conventionally, it was the thought was you can't win Arizona without picking up Maricopa County. So I guess we're going to find out. He might want to have big rallies, too, and might be able to get him better in those places. That's what we're seeing somewhat here.

You know, in central Florida, he goes to the villages and yesterday he was in Tampa. And these are areas that he has a lot of supporters and he's hoping to do well in. You know, he's not really done so much in Miami-Dade County and Broward County, you know, which are blue hotbeds. Well, the Trump campaign is really banking on the fact that they think that they can turn out more rural voters. You know, white non-college voters turned out at a 58% rate in 2016. The Trump campaign has said from the beginning they think they can go much higher than that because it's, you know, even really unconventional to try to go outside Maricopa County to try to win over some of those more rural voters to turn them out because Trump won Maricopa last time. So for him to not try to get those same voters to win that way is certainly tough. Yeah.

And we're seeing, Domenico, we're talking about monolithic voting blocks here. Rural America is my beat. And to say that all of rural America votes one way is a bit of a gamble, too, for the Trump campaign. Watching him focus on the rural vote in other states, like we've been hearing in Wisconsin, for example. When you talk to rural voters, health care is also a big issue. And that's something I've been hearing in the last few weeks.

And whether or not they're making the connection that potentially the Affordable Care Act and who many of them, many people rely on in rural areas because they're self-employed, whether they're making the connection or not about what the Trump administration has in plan or does not remains to be seen. But it could be seen as a bit of a gamble to just totally count on the rural vote this time. And, you know, Arizona and Florida are both states that had coronavirus spikes earlier this year during the summer. And, you know, we were seeing then that Biden was building a little bit of a more marginally larger lead than he has even now. Have you seen some fading in support for Biden or an uptick for Trump one way

or the other, given where things are with coronavirus? Or is it still something people are extremely worried about? Well, here in here in Florida, you know, the numbers are going up significantly. We're not seeing quite the spike they're seeing in places like Wisconsin and the upper Midwest, but they're coming back up and everybody's very aware of that. And so it's not going away as an issue. Healthcare, of course, is always important here. We have a large senior population. You know, Florida is a state where candidates win it by playing on the margins with all these different groups, you know, the senior citizens, African-American voters.

And there's so many different types of Latino voters. And those are all coming into play now. Senior citizens are breaking better for the Democrats this time than they did for Joe Biden, than they did for Hillary Clinton, according to polls. That could play big here. On the other side, you've got the issue of Latinos who are, Cuban-Americans particularly, have come around very strongly for Donald Trump. It's one reason why the Latino support in Florida is greater for Trump than it is in places like Texas and Arizona and California. So those are just two of the groups and the campaigns have to play on all those things.

But the number one issue is COVID still. Yeah, in Arizona, coronavirus is definitely weighing on voters' minds. It's one of the stories we've been reporting in the last few days. It's hard to find someone, I think like in any state, I mean, people are pretty entrenched right now. It's hard to find someone who may have, you know, just at the last minute shifted because they didn't like what was going on, how President Trump was handling the virus. Arizona was the hotspot, the epicenter over the summer. But we have seen a little bit of evidence of the older demographic supporting Joe Biden more. I talked to one woman named Linda Brown in Tempe. I think she was going to vote for Joe Biden prior to the pandemic, but she takes care of her 93-year-old mom. And this was really the tipping point. She's very concerned about the virus, but she, you know, she takes care of her 93-year-old mom. And this was really the

tipping point. She's very concerned about the virus, and she thinks the president has taken a callous attitude about it. I think he's much too cavalier about the whole situation. And I had hoped that when he contracted it himself, it might have made a little difference, but apparently not. You know, again, it is kind of hard to find the unicorn, right? The person who might have been siding with Trump or voted for Trump in 2016 and is shifting because of the coronavirus. But it is definitely weighing on people's minds, especially in a state like Arizona that was hit so hard, that does not have a statewide mask ordinance, that had very lax enforcement of existing rules and saw huge spikes. Do either one of you feel like the dynamic with just a couple days left of voting is like clearly in one candidate's direction or the other?

Like, do you feel the momentum is headed one way or the other? And for you, Greg, I mean, you've been in Florida for years. Does things feel different to you than they did in 2016? Well, you know, this is what leads everyone to be so uncertain is that it feels a lot like 2016. But then you'll talk to analysts and you'll look at what's going on with the early voting. Things are clearly different. The turnout here is just off the charts. I mean, right now, we're well over 80% of turnout of 2016. We'll probably be over 100% before Election Day.

And then no one can say what's going to happen on Election Day. How many people are going to turn out? Right now, the turnout is favoring Democrats, but Republicans are closing the gap. And if you see a huge surge in Republican turnout on Election Day, that will be a factor. And these are the things that keeps people on edge. You cannot say what's going to happen in Florida because there's so many markets, so many groups, and Trump and Biden are performing differently with each one of these groups. And so you have to, the campaigns are doing all they can to push those votes and get those marginal voters, people who don't come out every four years. I mean, you guys are all getting this question too, right? Like people are asking me, colleagues,

friends, well, you're a reporter, you're out on the, you're traveling right now. What are you hearing? Is this like 2016? And not to punt, but I don't look at the polls too closely. And what I've been saying is basically being a reporter in the Trump era, it's never what you think, right? It's always something different and it's always unpredictable. And so I'm not really in a position to give a sense for whether or not it's trending in one direction or another in Arizona in particular. All right. I think we are going to leave it there for now. Thank you to you both. You're welcome. You're welcome. And folks, for those of you listening, remember that you can support all of us on this podcast by supporting your local NPR station. To get started, just head

to donate.npr.org slash politics. I'm Asma Khalid. I'm covering the 2020 campaign. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thank you, as always, for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.