The NPR Politics Podcast - Paul Ryan Will Not Seek Re-Election

Episode Date: April 11, 2018

House Speaker Paul Ryan will retire in January, at the end of a tenure that saw the failure of an Obamacare repeal and the passage of tax cuts — as well as an uneven relationship with President Trump. This episode: host/congressional correspondent Scott Detrow, congressional correspondent Susan Davis, and political editor Domenico Montanaro. Email the show at [e-mail]. Find and support your local public radio station at npr.org/stations.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

This is Joel from the top of Yosemite Falls. This podcast was recorded at 1235 Eastern on Wednesday, April 11. Things may have changed by the time you hear it. Keep up with all of NPR's political coverage at NPR.org, the NPR One app, and on your local public radio station. Okay, here's the show. I to hike back down. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast here to talk about the surprise news here in Washington this morning. House Speaker Paul Ryan announced he will not run for re-election this November. Ryan is retiring at the end of his term. You all know that I did not seek this job. I took it reluctantly. But I have given this job everything that I have. And I have no regrets whatsoever for having accepted this responsibility. Ryan went on to say that after 20 years in Congress, he wants to be more than a weekend dad to his kids. This is big news, and we're going to talk about how much it matters. I'm Scott Detrow. I cover Congress for NPR. I'm Susan Davis. I also

cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, political editor. All right. And before we get into Paul Ryan, a quick note, there is a really big episode right behind this one in your feed. It gets into Mark Zuckerberg's Senate testimony, an FBI raid on President Trump's attorney's office, Michael Cohen, and also White House reaction to the use of chemical weapons in Syria. We are watching all those stories. I bet we will talk about some of them in tomorrow's weekly roundup. But Sue, Domenico, right now, it's all Paul Ryan all the time. I'm ready for it. So let's start with this, Sue, because this was a morning of frantic text messages between you, me, and Kelsey Snell, who also covers Congress.

We had heard some rumors this might happen. How surprising was this actual news? The decision, I don't think, was that surprising. The timing is what really surprised people. The speaker and his office had been pretty candid about the fact that he always takes the spring to think about whether he's going to run for reelection or not. That it is a conversation he has with his wife, Jana, every two years. And the fact that they weren't saying all this year, oh, of course, the Speaker's running for reelection, had caused speculation that this would likely happen. I would say the betting odds and the conventional wisdom around this

was that Paul Ryan would run for reelection and on the other side of the midterms would then probably step down or announce he wasn't going to be speaker anymore. So I think the fact that he's doing it now is what's kind of surprised people. But I don't think anyone on Capitol Hill is shocked that Ryan is ready to go. And we heard that cut up top of Ryan saying he didn't really want the job to begin with. A lot of politicians say that it was more accurate than not in the case of Ryan and the speakership, right? Absolutely. I mean, this happened. He became speaker when former Speaker John Boehner similarly caught his colleagues a bit by surprise and announced that he was going to resign effective immediately, sparking a midterm speakers race. This I would also note was,

I believe my first week as an NPR reporter. This is a familiar conversation for me at NPR. And initially, after Boehner had stepped down, the smart money was on Kevin McCarthy, who is the majority leader. And oftentimes in these leadership races, everybody just kind of bumps up the ladder one notch. McCarthy wanted to be speaker. When push came to shove, it became pretty clear he didn't have the votes, in part because of the harder right wing, the Freedom Caucus types, the more conservatives didn't really feel like McCarthy was their guy. And remember, one of the problems with Kevin McCarthy was his inability to articulate a

message very well. And we're going to see if he's able to do that come this time around, if he decides to run, which he likely will, for the speakership to replace Ryan. And when it comes to Ryan, I kind of described him back then as the son whose father runs a family business and he had to come back home because his dad had gone away. He didn't want to do the job anymore and he had to come back home and replace him. And he just reluctantly – Like George Bailey in It's a Wonderful Life or something? Totally, right. Yeah, and just totally just did not want to do the job, but did it anyway reluctantly.

Now he's looking forward seeing his family and also, frankly, President Trump. I mean, when you've got a president in the White House who it's made it a very know, a very awkward relationship, to say the least, between Ryan and Trump. You know, Ryan was very critical of Trump during the campaign, and he kind of swallowed a lot of that criticism to be able to work with him and try to push through some conservative legislation. And he got the thing that he's been working on for most of his career, which is, you know, an overhaul of the tax code. So he got that through. He struggled to find other things that were major accomplishments. You know, I mean, you think about the failure to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. And having said that it was going to

be the law of the land, he wasn't able to push forward on entitlement reform. The deficit has gone up. So for a budget hawk, having that happen, you know, it's not all big things, as he described it. So when a politician retires or resigns, the newsroom phrase we use is called the political obit. Who's writing the political obit? You know, a retrospective look at a person's career. How different is that political obit you're writing on Paul Ryan today, now that Donald Trump has been president than it would have been if you were writing it Paul Ryan today, now that Donald Trump has been president, than it would have been if you were writing it in like, you know, October 2016. Because I think we've talked a lot about how much Paul Ryan's reputation has changed over the last two years. Yeah. You know, I would note that the vice president, Mike Pence, who was very close

with Paul Ryan when they served together and remain very close today, tweeted out in response to his retirement decision that few Americans have done more to advance the conservative agenda over the last 20 years than Paul Ryan. And I think there's something to be said about that, where Domenico raises a very good point about sort of the brass tacks of what bills did you pass and what laws did you get done and that kind of metric. But I also think it's worth noting in this context, too, that one lasting impact I think Paul Ryan had on the Republican Party is that he really did recenter the way the party thinks about entitlements, specifically Medicare, Social

Security. And he was a leading proponent for the idea that these programs should be privatized and radically changed to the point that Republicans passed that in their budget several years in a row in Congress and also made it the platform of the Republican Party when he was Mitt Romney's running mate in 2012. It's not, to me, entirely dissimilar to kind of what we're seeing now in the Democratic Party as they talk about Medicare for all, that you have these, yes, the policy may not happen right now or in a decade or in 20 years, but you recenter the party's ideology around specific policies and ideas. And he said today that he did consider part of his legacy, in his words, normalizing entitlement reform. I feel from all the budgets that I've passed, normalizing entitlement reform, pushing the cause of entitlement reform and the House passing entitlement reform.

I'm very proud of that fact. But yeah, of course, more work needs to be done. That was such an interesting phrase when he said that, because we've talked about normalizing so much this year. My ears really perked up when he used that phrase. Well, you know, Social Security used to be the third rail of politics. And Medicare. You couldn't really touch it.

And, you know, Medicare, I mean, when people used to look at the pie chart of the federal budget, they would sort of like gray out the entitlement section because they knew you couldn't touch it. And it is the majority of the budget. So when you look at the deficit, that's a big piece of it. And both sides have not been able to agree on how to do anything about it. Ryan definitely, by making the argument, tried to move the party and probably did in a more fiscally conservative direction. I mean, he really did normalize that view with most Republicans, but I think President Trump disagrees with a lot of that at times. And that was one of their many

intellectual clashes. You know, Ryan had run and was trying to focus the party as the party of fiscal responsibility. He was a budget talk. He'd always say, I'm a budget guy, I'm a policy guy. And he wanted to radically reshape the social safety net and the tax code. And then, record scratch, the 2016 campaign happens. primaries and in many moments during the general election when Paul Ryan was Donald Trump's loudest critic, outright calling something that Trump said at one point racist. When Trump criticized the federal judge who he thought might not be able to give him a fair hearing on the Trump University case because of his Mexican heritage, Paul Ryan said that's the textbook definition of a racist comment. I disavow these comments. I regret those comments that he made. I don't think claiming a person can't do their job because of their race

is sort of like the textbook definition of a racist comment. I think that should be absolutely disavowed. It's absolutely unacceptable. Things changed pretty quickly the moment President Trump was elected. Also, the other thing, and because I'm going through a lot of tape now as we think about this, the same thing during the campaign. If going through a lot of tape now as we think about this, that the same thing during the campaign. If you remember after the Access Hollywood tapes happened, Paul Ryan was one of the fastest and loudest voices to come out,

essentially calling for Trump to get out of the race. I am not going to defend Donald Trump. Not now, not in the future. Saying he wouldn't campaign with him, he wouldn't appear with him. He canceled an appearance with him on the campaign trail in Wisconsin. As you probably heard, I just invited him from my first congressional district GOP event this weekend, a thing I do every year. And I'm not going to be campaigning with him over the next 30 days. Look, you guys know I have real concerns with our nominee. And really believed that Trump would not win this election. But that appearance was such a key moment when we all started to realize that maybe this is Donald Trump's party and not Paul Ryan's party.

Because remember, Ryan goes on stage without Trump and he got booed. Thank you for coming out for Fall Fest, everybody. Thank you so much, you guys. God bless you all. Thank you. Appreciate it. And to that point of it being Donald Trump's party and not Paul Ryan's party, I mean, I think we can extrapolate that out even further to this being Donald Trump's party, the Tea Party's party and not the establishment Republicans anymore. You know, I think that President Trump, when he ran, sort of ran a hostile takeover of the Republican Party and was able to pull it off. The fact of the matter is, you know,

Paul Ryan was very popular with the base before the 2016 election, before Donald Trump came along. And now, I mean, if he'd stayed in Congress even longer, his favorability rating would have probably tanked because these guys are lightning rods when you're a leader in an institution that's really unpopular with the American people in the first place. I mean, I'm really interested to see, you know, that I think the speaker's race will be something that sort of encapsulates this, too, because. And we should note it could be a race for the minority leader if the Republicans lose their majority. Absolutely, because Ryan says he's staying through the election because in some ways he was sort of the finger in the dam. Ryan, he was the last one who could get a majority of the of the vote.

He could get 218 votes with Republicans, almost a unanimous vote. Right. He was able to get that number. It's really hard to see one who can get that number and if they'll be able to consolidate enough of those conservatives. A bunch more questions about what this means both for the midterm elections and who's running the Republican House conference after that. But first, one more question about Ryan's leadership. We talked about that hostile takeover moment. Trump gets elected president. Sue,

how would you characterize the way that Ryan worked with Trump once they were both in office in 2017? You know, once they had that unified Republican government, everybody got on board pretty quickly behind Trump. And I would put Ryan very much, you know, driving that train with Mitch McConnell in that I think there had always been some anticipation inside the Republican Party, the never Trump orbit, that Ryan might continue to be this voice of principled opposition to the president. And he did not choose to go that path. I'm not sure that was really a tenable path for someone to be- Haven't seen the tweet, haven't read that tweet yet today. You know, his criticism that we heard on the campaign that you noted,

that got really quiet once they were actually in a governing majority. And I think, you know, from a practical standpoint, when you have that job, your job is to move an agenda. And I think Ryan and a lot of Republicans saw a lot of promise in Donald Trump because he was not an ideologue. Right. If you're Ryan and you're the ideas guy and you're the one with the agenda and you have a president who's like, cool, just send me stuff, I'll sign it. I think he felt really empowered. And so why criticize a president that you think is going to sign everything you believe in into law? There was just no benefit there. And as Domenico noted, you know, the base wasn't his anymore. Are you saying that what Ryan has done during the Trump era is the textbook definition of a lack of principled opposition? Scott, I was listening to some of the interviews you did this morning from Republicans relieving the meeting where Ryan told them he was leaving.

And something Charlie Dent said, he's a moderate Pennsylvania Republican who's also retiring this year, talking about the Paul Ryan era versus the Trump era, in which he said, being a Republican and running for office used to be about what fidelity do you have to ideas and to certain principles? And now being a Republican in 2018 is all about how much fidelity do you have to the man, to Donald Trump? Which is why Charlie Dent and many other Republicans now, including Paul Ryan, for different reasons, are just choosing not to run again. There's a Florida congressman today, right? Dennis Ross, who also announced that he's retiring. And on his way out the door, he was lamenting partisanship and fealty to one side of the party over another. It's amazing how much these guys out the door lament partisanship and polarization.

I want to listen to a really interesting moment that Kelsey Snell recorded in the hallway. But first, to set it up, Sue, John Boehner had difficulties with the Freedom Caucus. Paul Ryan had difficulties with the Freedom Caucus. The next Republican leader, whether it's a House speaker or a minority leader, probably going to have difficulties with the Freedom Caucus. Can you just explain what that relationship was like and how it affected policy? has made it very difficult, even as Republicans have held the House for the better part of the past decade now, to advance much of an agenda because they can't get the ideological purity that the Freedom Caucus is seeking. So let's listen to this moment. Mark Meadows, who you just mentioned, is doing what he often does, talking to a lot of reporters in the hallway

about the situation. I don't know that there's a crisis of confidence in any... And then Paul Ryan walks by and here's what happened. Hi, Mark. I heard it. Hi, Mark. Have a nice day, the speaker said. Oh, my goodness. Have a nice day talking about me and my legacy. Exactly.

And whether or not Mark Meadows could be a contender for Speaker of the House. Really? I would be surprised if no member of the Freedom Caucus doesn't at least throw their hat in the ring as we have this months-long leadership race now to try and focus the conversation around what principles and ideas and legislation that the Speaker is going to have to commit to passing in order to get the votes they need. Who else would you put on that list? The two names we're going to hear a lot about, unless they take themselves out of contention, are the next top two Republicans. The majority leader, Kevin McCarthy, he's from California, and Steve Scalise, the majority whip, he's from

Louisiana. McCarthy has the ambition to be Speaker. He has the ambition that Paul Ryan did not have, but he couldn't get the votes when John Boehner stepped down. He has been working that. He has been working with members of the Freedom Caucus. He is behind the scenes trying to build those bridges to assuage any concerns they have about his conservative credentials. He's probably, if you were making a power ranking listings, he'd be at the number one spot right now. And what he probably has going for him this time around that he didn't have last time is the president likes him. Absolutely. I mean, president likes Scalise too. Oh yeah. Well, I'm not saying that Scalise is somebody who would be derailed by Trump. I'm just saying that if McCarthy really wants the job, then he could be

the guy, you know, and be able to make the play. Now, the thing is, there's also been all these rumors that McCarthy could be the chief of staff to President Trump, too. That's one of those other things that's out there. But, you know, I think my point is that he's got some political capital that he didn't have the last time by having the president's backing. Okay, last question. We have talked a lot about the record number of Republicans retiring and how much that's usually a historic indicator of what could be a wave election. How much more does it mean now that the House speaker is among that list of Republicans saying, you know what, I'm not running again? Because I think Paul Ryan gave some very personal reasons for making this decision. But I think you also have to view it in the context of a whole lot of people making a similar decision. Of course. I mean, they will say that the midterm politics had no factor in his decision. But, you know, I was talking to other Republican members this morning who said it's just not

going to be good for morale, right? It's just not a sign of confidence in your majority, even if it has nothing to do with it. And not just his decision, but also when a speaker does something like that, the kind of chilling effect it can have on grassroots enthusiasm, on fundraising. Although I will say that Paul Ryan has spent this Congress raising a ton of money and has already transferred over 40 million dollars to the House Republican campaign operation. So he's clearly trying to leave the party with the financial resources they need to run competitive elections. But there are now, according to the Cook Political Report, about 90 House seats that can be considered in play. That's amazing because of how these districts are drawn. For there to be 90 seats in play, you know, the last cycle we struggled to come up with like 40. Yeah. So for there to be 90 is really something else. And one of those competitive races now

is Paul Ryan's seat. You know, his Janesville area, Wisconsin district would not have been competitive if he was the incumbent, most likely. But it is competitive now. This can be considered a toss up race in part because there is an established Democrat, Randy Bryce, who's running for the nomination. He's raised over two million dollars. That's the iron stash guy. The iron stash guy. He is on air. He's got a grassroots campaign. He is running a real operation. And an open seat race in Wisconsin in this climate means the Democrats have a real shot at picking up Paul Ryan's seat in November. And it's only like a lean Republican district in most years anyway, you know, because of just the bent of the district. But because of Ryan's name identification, he's able to usually

win it fairly easily. All right, that's it for today. We will be back in your feed tomorrow with our weekly roundup. That's right. It is another triple pod week. Keep up with all of our coverage on NPR.org, NPR Politics on Facebook, and of course, your local public radio station. If you Apple Podcasts.