The NPR Politics Podcast - Poll: Americans Divided Over Israel's War With Hamas

Episode Date: November 16, 2023

The latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll shows a growing number of Americans think Israel's military actions against Hamas have gone too far compared to data from last month. Respondents also are split on whether to continue financial & military support to Israel and to Ukraine in their wars, and whether the U.S. should play a leadership role in global affairs. This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, national political correspondent Mara Liasson, and senior political editor & correspondent Domenico Montanaro.The podcast is edited by Casey Morell. It is produced by Jeongyoon Han. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for this podcast and the following message come from the NPR Wine Club, which has generated over $1.75 million to support NPR programming. Whether buying a few bottles or joining the club, you can learn more at nprwineclub.org slash podcast. Must be 21 or older to purchase. Hi, this is Eric, and I'm at the Tampa International Airport with 16 community college students. We're on our way to the Southern Regional Model United Nations Conference in Atlanta, where the students will be representing the Republic of Korea and Turkey. That's South Korea and Turkey for all you non-diplomats out there. This podcast was recorded at... 2.09 p.m. on Thursday, November 16th. Things may have changed by the time you hear it,

but I will still be a proud professor of some of the most diplomatic 2.09 p.m. on Thursday, November 16th. Things may have changed by the time you hear it, but I will still be a proud professor of some of the most diplomatic and professional students I've ever met. True fact about me, I also did Model UN, and I did it for two years, and I was Nicaragua. And now look. And now look at me. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Mara Liason, national political correspondent. And now look. Domenico, let's start with Israel. Opinions are shifting on whether or not the U.S. should continue to be involved in this conflict.

Yeah, what we found from last month is that in particular, Democrats have really spiked in feeling like Israel has gone too far or that their response has been too much since the Hamas attack on October 7th. Now, 56 percent of Democrats say that the response has been too much. That's up 21 points from last month. Wow. That's a big jump. It is a big jump. And we're seeing that particularly driven by younger voters and voters of color. Yeah.

And that we've seen that trend line pretty consistently playing out, that this really seems to be more of a generational and racial divide among Democrats. Almost everything in our poll was this very stark generational and racial divide, whether it came to how Israel has responded or where sympathies lie, like which side. And this is something that Gallup found for the first time this year that Democrats felt more sympathies with Palestinians in their long-term struggle with Israel in the region. Our poll kind of bears that out here because when we asked about who your sympathies lie with in this situation, younger voters and voters of color more so had more sympathy with Palestinians and Democrats were split because of it. And it's interesting because Republicans and independents overwhelmingly sided with Israel. You know, 61 percent overall said that they had more sympathy with Israel than with Palestinians. But that was a very different story for Democrats.

Mara, this seems like a uniquely difficult problem for Biden or for any president in that a very crucial part of the party and the base feels very strongly about an issue in which Biden fundamentally doesn't agree with them. And it's hard to see how Joe Biden is going to pivot or change his approach to U.S.-Israel policy based off polling numbers. No, and that's what makes it so difficult for Democrats. The Biden administration is not the first White House that has become incredibly frustrated with an Israeli government. In other words, the Netanyahu government has made it very hard for young Democrats and progressive American Jews to be supportive because it doesn't believe in a two-state solution. And it's done things like

continue to occupy the West Bank and expand settlements. But one thing I wanted to ask Domenico, even though young people, minority voters, sympathies are with Palestinians, does that mean that they are anti-Israel, that they think Hamas was justified in making that attack? What exactly does it mean to be pro-Palestinian? Yeah, I don't know. We didn't ask that question in that way. But I do think that the sympathies and where they lie is an interesting sort of thing on this because when you look at – I think they're tied together with the response because I think that initially we saw more support for Israel after the Hamas in about the right fashion. You know, we have this split here. 38% think that it's been too much. 38% think that it's been about right. And every group has shifted.

You know, Democrats have more shifted toward feeling like it's been too much. Even Republicans have shifted from what they said last month was doing too little to now feeling like Israel has had about the right response. So every group, independents, young, old, Republicans even have shifted somewhat. Right. And one of the goals of Hamas was to provoke a disproportionate Israeli response, which they knew would happen. And then hopefully they thought, and they were right, that it would erode sympathy for Israel internationally. And in terms of domestic politics, I mean, this could be a real problem for Joe Biden because he needs enthusiastic turnout among non-white voters and young voters and among core constituencies like Arab Americans in battleground states like Michigan.

Well, not only that, but older voters, I mean, voters over 45, Jewish Democrats, they all have more sympathy with Israel. So these are two really big groups or key categories that, you know, Democrats need to win an election. Can I also suggest, Mara, and I'm curious for your thoughts on this. I mean, we are seeing also a rise in protests on the left, both anti-Israel, any way you want to frame it, in which even here in Washington, D.C., there was one outside the DNC last night that got somewhat violent, led to some arrests. And obviously, there's a political problem with Joe Biden having enthusiasm. I mean, young voters and non-white voters. But I also think there is that like not exactly a Democrat swingy voter looking at these two parties and may look at this kind of activity on the left and feel alienated from the Democratic Party, that it also is a risk to Joe Biden, that it could turn away swing voters trying to make up their mind between

Republicans and Democrats, especially in the question of Israel. Sure. If you ask swing voters who are pro-Israel, gee, which is going to be more motivating for your vote, the fact that Joe Biden stuck with Israel or the fact that a whole bunch of people who seem to be sympathetic to Hamas are representing Democrats. I mean, that's, I think the second one is going to be much more powerful. At least in how Republicans would characterize it. At least in how Republicans will characterize it. And we know that they have many more tools to characterize this than Democrats do. They have a much more powerful media machine. But what's so interesting to me about that, you could say the extremism on the left around the Israeli-Hamas war, is that for years, Republicans and conservatives have

wanted to paint Democrats as the extremists. And they really tried hard to make Antifa into something real and big, and reality just didn't cooperate with them. But now they have things to point to and they have the video footage of pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel, anti-Jewish, sometimes pro-Hamas demonstrations that they are going to say represent the Democratic Party, even though Joe Biden is not part of that. It also, our poll also reflected a reality, Domenico, that Americans overwhelmingly say that they're worried about political violence here, that the Israeli-Hamas conflict could lead to increased extremism in the U.S.

Yeah, 82 percent said that they're worried about this leading to hate crimes in the United States. And I think— Well, it has already. They should be worried about it. Right. And I think that there have been these spikes, obviously, that we've seen these threats when we've also seen actual violence take place. And I think that you're seeing this totally crossover because whoever your sympathies lie politics, where Democrats are much more likely to say that the U.S. should be involved in these issues abroad, not just Israel, but what's happening in Ukraine, that the U.S. has a responsibility

to play a role in these foreign conflicts. And Republicans are much more likely to be isolationist, to not support even sending money to things like Ukraine. And that seems like a very sharp contrast in where the parties were in, say, the George W. Bush-Sherak war era. Yeah, you think? Definitely. And, you know, what we saw here is that 50 percent said that it's crucial for the U.S. to play a major leadership role in the world. But 47 percent said that the U.S. should focus on his own problems and play less of a leadership role. And two thirds of Democrats said that the U.S. should continue to play a leadership role. But 56% of independents and 51% of Republicans said that the U.S. should turn inward. And there's a huge, again, age and racial gap here because you had non-whites 15 points more likely to say the U.S. should turn more inward, 57% said so.

And those under 45, 59% said that the U.S. should focus on problems at home. Yeah, there's always been a strong isolationist strain in American politics, and it's always been in the Republican Party. But now it's taken to a new level because we had Donald Trump, who made America first, which you could say is a metaphor for America turning inward, part of his program. And that's going to make it really hard for Joe Biden to get congressional support, even for aid to Israel, although it's going to be much, much harder to get aid to Ukraine. All right, let's take a quick break, and we'll talk more about the poll when we get back. Support for this podcast and the following message come from Autograph Collection Hotels, offering over 300 independent hotels around the world,

each exactly like nothing else. Hand-selected for their inherent craft, each hotel tells its own unique story through distinctive design and immersive experiences, from medieval falconry to volcanic wine tasting. Autograph Collection is part of the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio of over 30 hotel brands around the world. Find the unforgettable at AutographCollection.com. And we're back. And, Mara, it does seem the difficulty of many for Joe Biden here is that he has absolutely no control, really, over the outcome of the situation in Israel or Ukraine. But his presidency could depend upon it. I mean, he needs things to be seen as going his way, however you might want to define that, next fall.

Or it could have a huge negative impact on him if the U.S. has sent hundreds of billions of dollars to help in these conflicts and Americans just don't think it's working and don't think Joe Biden's role in all of it is helping. I think he has a little more control, believe it or not, over the Middle East than Ukraine. I think that what he did in the press conference yesterday was starting to talk about how the end result has to be a two-state solution. That is in direct opposition to the policy of the Netanyahu government, who, like Hamas, does not believe in a two-state solution. He said he's working with leaders of Arab countries on this. He has, I think, some leverage there to maybe push for that solution. get support in the U.S. to send money to Ukraine. I'm surprised that nobody has framed this debate over funding Ukraine as a kind of pro-Putin versus anti-Putin vote. But I think that incumbent presidents are always at the mercy of world events because they're held responsible. Yeah, I think they've tried some of that. But, you know, it's hard when you've got a third of people saying that they don't want to fund either war, and you have a third of people saying to fund both wars.

It's really tough to find consensus. The difference, I mean, these are very complicated fights, but there is a huge split between, even though Joe Biden has bear hugged Netanyahu and shown staunch support for Israel, there is a big difference between what the Biden administration feels is the right solution in the Middle East and what the Netanyahu administration thinks. You know, Biden believes in a two-state solution, and Netanyahu doesn't. And you could argue that the fact that Netanyahu has continued to push for settlements, let the settlements expand, this was maybe an inevitable conflict that had to happen. In Ukraine, there's not that difference. Biden administration is completely 100% behind Ukraine's goal, which is to be an independent,

sovereign country, not invaded by its neighbor. The problem is some Republicans aren't. That's right, including Donald Trump, who has a deep animus towards Ukraine. Dominica, what's the latest on President Biden's approval? Oof, that's the latest. You know, overall, his job approval rating is still stuck at 42 percent with all adults, 43 percent with registered voters. It's just not going anywhere. I mean, it's not great. And it's 33 percent with independents, 39 percent with those under 45. And when you think about the Israel-Hamas war and you ask people about how they feel about Biden's handling of that, even though you have so many people saying that they want the U.S. to stand with Israelamas war. And a lot of that has to do with Democrats. You know, only 60 percent of Democrats said in this poll that they approve of the job Biden is doing in handling this war. That's down 17 points from last month. And I think a lot of that obviously has to do what we've been talking about, which'll talk about up until election day is that this is likely to be an election between two people the country doesn't like very much. So I'm not sure how much stock we need to put in presidential approval ratings. It used to be a big indicator in the past, but in the modern world, we kind of know either Joe Biden or Donald Trump winning the

presidency is predicated on the reality that they're going to have to have people who don't like them vote for them. Absolutely. And the race is going to be whether they can make more people dislike the other guy. Negative partisanship is going to be the motivator for voters' behavior. And whoever is less unpopular will win. And, you know, Biden's favorite saying is, please compare me to the alternative, not to the almighty. And that's what he's hoping here. It's going to be a choice. And hopefully, according to the Biden campaign, enough people will not want Donald Trump to be president to allow Biden to win. I don't know if that will actually happen, but that's the only way Biden will be reelected. That's certainly the theory of the case and a good case to be made because Trump didn't get above 47 percent or didn't reach 47 percent in any of the previous two elections.

Right. But when you think about the fact that this election may not be completely binary and that there are so many third party choices that are cropping up. That's the real danger for Biden. Right. And that is how the path widens further and further for somebody like Donald Trump, you know, because his hardcore base is going to stick with him. And if you have people like Joe Manchin, the senator from West Virginia, who's not running for reelection, but is toying with this idea of running for president and talking about how Joe Biden has changed and how he's not a centrist anymore and he's being pulled too far to the left, which is what he said in an interview with NBC News this week. That would be a news to the left.

Yeah, I mean, exactly. But if that case is continuously made when Biden is trying to make the case that he's more moderate and that independents should pick him over somebody who's more extreme in Donald Trump, it undercuts that message. So I think you're going to see a lot more ads as we come up on If It's Trump Who becomes the nominee of just replaying over and over and over and over all of the things Trump has said that sound extreme and that are extreme since he left office to remind this anti-Trump coalition that Biden has of why they need to stick with Biden because of how odious they find Trump's behavior. There is a lot of bleak in this poll. So I wanted to make a point to highlight something of a bright spot, at least what I would consider a bright spot. And I was reading through the tabs in which it breaks down these questions among demographics and majorities in every single demographic, men, women, college educated, blue collar,

white, non-white, everyone, majorities, in some cases, super majorities, say they believe the political system works fine, that it's the politicians that are the problem. But the way I read that is through the positive lens is most Americans have faith in the political system. And maybe can we can we take some brightness out of that piece of data? We've got silver lining Sue and dark Domenico here. Yeah, I need you to be a little silver today. Well, I mean, I do think that if you want to look at it that way, that people do have faith in the political system. It's just the people who are the problems who are being elected.

I think it's interesting because we've continued to see over and over again. People say that they like their own member of Congress, that they have elected to go there, but they don't like the other members of Congress. And this is interesting because we've seen repeatedly over and over again people sort of declining in confidence with lots of key pillars of government and key pieces of the democratic institutions in this country. And this is one bright spot of people saying at least that they do think that there's not much wrong with this political system, right? So if we get better people, then the system can be better. But I do think that it's leading... The foundation is strong. Maybe, right? I do think that it's leading to a lot of disaffection overall, a lot of cynicism, and why you're seeing some of these flirtations with third parties.

Not me. Not today. I'm trying to be positive. You are really trying to be positive. I'm really trying here, guys. You got your thumb on the scale of positiveness. Of positivity today. I will say that that's going to be an interesting sentiment to see how well it holds up against Donald Trump's message, which is the system is rigged and any outcome of an election that doesn't favor him is by definition false or fake. that over and over again. Well, we can talk about like antipathy, people not liking politicians. It doesn't mean people aren't going to go vote because we've seen repeatedly in the last few years, more people actually turning out to vote. And a lot of that is directly pegged to anger,

whether it's over politicians, whether it's over abortion rights or a handful of any other issues, people are engaged for the most part in the political system. All right. I'm just going to stop it there. We're going to leave it there for today on a somewhat positive note. We'll be back in your feeds tomorrow with the Weekly Roundup. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Mara Liason, national political correspondent. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.