The NPR Politics Podcast - Polls Show Biden Riding High. Democrats Are Still Worried.

Episode Date: July 15, 2020

Joe Biden is doing well in the polls: in traditional Democratic strongholds, in swing states, and even in historically Republican bastions. But Democratic strategists and voters both feel worried that there is something the polls are missing.This episode: campaign correspondent Scott Detrow, campaign correspondent Asma Khalid, senior political editor Domenico Montanaro.Connect:Subscribe to the NPR Politics Podcast here.Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Listen to our playlist The NPR Politics Daily Workout.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Find and support your local public radio station.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Marley calling from Newberry, Vermont. I'm currently kayaking the Connecticut River with my husband Will, sister Charlesy, and her boyfriend Phil. This podcast was recorded at... We are in a streak of outdoor activities right now. It is 208 Eastern on Wednesday, July 15th. Things may have changed by the time you listen to it. Okay, here's the show.

I guess they didn't drop their phone in the water after recording that, so that's a good thing. This is a good time of year to get outside. I mean, especially coronavirus, if you can do something socially distanced, it's a lot of fun. It is. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Scott Detrow. I cover the presidential campaign. I'm Asma Khalid. I also cover the presidential campaign. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent, and apparently work for REI.

It has been a while, shifting to the news, it has been a while since we took a step back and talked about just the state of the race, what states look competitive right now, which states look like they may be more of a set thing. Since we last had this conversation with the three of us, Joe Biden has continued to expand his national leads. Basically, every single poll that's come out since our last conversation has looked good for Joe Biden, to the point where there was one of those wicka-what moments with the campaign. I don't know if that's a technical term, but I'm going to stick with it. With the campaign yesterday, where the Biden campaign announced they were spending money on an ad in Texas. Now, what do we think about that?

Do we think that was a stunt? Do we think that suddenly Texas is a competitive state? Let's just start with that. Well, I mean, I think Texas is competitive to an extent. I mean, we have Texas as a lean Republican state in our battleground map. But this poll had Biden up by five points, 46 to 41. And what I think people should keep in mind is that 46 does not win you an election. You've got to get to 50 percent. So when you see people at 50, above 50, close to 50, that's important. What happened in this poll is that independents who traditionally lean Republican, especially in Texas, were soft and falling away from President Trump because they don't approve

of how he's handled coronavirus and race relations over the last few months. And Domenico, you were talking about that Dallas Morning News poll, right, that showed him up by five points. Yeah, I mean, you're right. I mean, I think when you look overall at the polls, I think the real clear politics average has this race essentially tied, which I think to anyone who has covered, you know, Texas politics, it's surprising. I mean, I think there have long been questions of Texas trending more towards the Democratic Party, but still a sense that the Texas Republican Party is pretty strong and that there are just long

Republican roots in the state. And so, you know, I will say that when you look at the actual ad buy itself, it is fairly small in the grand scheme of things. Right. So this was an ad not just showing in Texas. It was part of a four state multi-state ad buy that's in the like mid six figures. So, you know, that's not going to take you that far in Texas, but he did get him a lot of media coverage. So the thing that people should keep in mind is that Texas is more like a leading indicator for some of these other states, especially Arizona and Florida, which are far more competitive, that the Biden campaign has far more of a chance of winning in. But if it's tight in Texas,

it means that Biden's probably doing pretty well in Arizona and Florida. And that's why, to me, what was more interesting about this ad was not its existence in Texas, but its tone and what the message was. It was basically just Joe Biden saying, hey, everybody, this coronavirus is tough. We've got to get through this. We can do this. Like really generic things about we are in a tough spot right now.

This virus is tough, but Texas is tougher. We can stop the spread. It's up to all of us to do it. We have to wear a mask. It sounded like a government health PSA to some degree. It was the type of thing that a governor or a president would say all the time, but President Trump just has not said it. Or if he said it, he's quickly emphasized other things like questioning the severity of the crisis to begin with. And I think that gets to the broader opening in the state of this race right now, where Joe Biden is just kind of like filling in acting presidential. And that seems more than anything else to be what a lot of voters and a lot of swing voters just want to see. Yeah, I think overall, Biden and Democrats are trying to put competence on the ballot when it comes to President Trump. And that's the biggest issue, I think, so far that we've seen. Competence

has been the thing that they've been able to attack him over because of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which majorities of the country now say that they disapprove of the way he's handled that. And the way President Trump talks about race is another piece of how Democrats are able to go after him morally and culturally. And that's a double whammy right now for President Trump that he's dug himself a little bit of a hole on. And the latest example of that is an interview that the president gave with CBS News yesterday when he was asked about the root cause, the root starting point of these national protests that have been, you know, pretty popular with most voters across the country. Let's talk about George Floyd. You said George Floyd's death was a terrible thing. Terrible.

Why are African Americans still dying at the hands of law enforcement in this country? And so are white people. So are white people. What a terrible question to ask. Why are African-Americans still dying at the hands of law enforcement in this country? And so are white people. So are white people. What a terrible question to ask. So are white people. More white people, by the way. More white people. And he said in that interview also that the Confederate flag, people love the Confederate flag, and that not everybody who loves it associates it with slavery. But a fact check on him here when it comes to him saying that more white people are killed by police. Overall, that's true.

But African-Americans die at the hands of police by a far, far higher rate than with their white counterparts. I mean, I think that when you hear him make comments like these, it leaves a lot of analysts really confused. I was speaking earlier today with Ari Flesher, right? Republican from the George W. Bush administration. And he specifically brought up this example of the Confederate flag. And he said, you know, I don't really know what the constituency is for making comments like that. And he says, clearly, the president believes that there is this constituency.

But in his view, the president needs to broaden his base. He questions the idea that you can really just win reelection by courting your base. And is your base big enough to do that? And I will say that on the other side, you look at what Joe Biden's been able to do. You know, his campaign will tell me that often what the most effective strategy is sometimes is Donald Trump himself. I mean, you don't really need to counter program what he does and says. You can just allow the president to do what he's doing. And that's what a lot of Democratic analysts find to be really effective. And that's why they think Joe Biden continues to do well in the polls, even though, you know,

he doesn't have necessarily as enthusiastic of a base of support, maybe as Donald Trump does. All right, we're going to take a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about a few more specific states. We'll also look at how Senate races stand right now. What does it mean to be the only person who looks like you at your place of work? I was the first Latina in the newsroom at NPR, ever, two step foot, who wasn't cleaning it. We discussed the reckoning over race taking place in newsrooms across the country. Listen and subscribe now to It's Been a Minute from NPR. Okay, we're back. Let's start with the big three that we thought this entire election would be all

about, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Asma, how does the Biden campaign navigate all of this, knowing that they really just need to flip three states to win this election, but also seeing the dynamic, feeling the pressure from Democrats who say for a few reasons, first of all, we have a chance to win a lot more states. But secondly, they feel like they need to send a message and beat Donald Trump by as wide of a margin as possible. Well, I mean, I think that the history of 2016 looms large over this cycle for Democrats. But I also think that, you know, a number of Democratic strategists have pointed out to me that this year is really different than 2016. That year, they feel like

Democrats didn't pay enough attention to their blue wall. Some folks felt like going in and talking about Arizona was a bit of an overreach. And they say that that's not what the Biden campaign is doing this year, that they are playing simultaneously in both, you could say, the South, the Sunbelt states, as well as those traditional blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But the other thing they point out is that this also just, you know, politically is not 2016 and that this is a very sort of unusual coalition that Joe Biden seems to have formed at this point, where you have, you know, college educated, disenfranchised Republicans, you have folks who really may not love Joe Biden, who are far more progressive

than him that are going to come out also and support him. And so it's this really unusual sort of demographic match of voters that they would argue you may not even have again after 2020. And so they really do think that some of the signs of polling that we're seeing are accurate, though I think also Democrats are still nervous. Let me ask you both this before we shift gears to Senate, because this is another one of those conversations where we keep coming back to 2016. I know that every Democratic voter I ever talk to comes back to 2016. Like, do you think as a whole, the ghost of 2016 helps Democrats or hurts Democrats more? I think it absolutely helps them.

Why is that? I spent some time in Wisconsin and Michigan, two states that Democrats lost in 2016. And people there are so nervous, you know, when you talk to them about the polling, but they will say that there's just such an energy and there were like lessons learned. And they said, and you saw this in 2018, right? You saw governors win in Michigan, Wisconsin. You saw a number of local legislative leaders who were Democrats pick up seats there. And I think part of this was a backlash to what happened in 2016. But I would say, I mean, Democrats very much feel like they cannot repeat what happened there,

especially in those states, because they usually tend to be blue. What do you think, Domenico? Yeah, I agree totally. I think that Democrats are living with this weight of 2016, nervous, fearful that they're going to wind up losing again, despite what the polls say. I think a lot of people in 2016 felt a false sense of security because they saw the trend lines and they saw what the polls were saying. And people were hitting F5 to refresh their screens on 538 and the New York Times needle that was showing Hillary Clinton with a 67 percent chance or whatever it was to win the election. Right. That I find from liberals this time, they are completely dismissive of.

I mean, everywhere I go to do any kind of event or talk to anyone, any one of them, there's always a question or two about, you know, how wrong polls were and why we continue to report on them. I mean, it's almost the opposite, right, where I feel like as good as the poll numbers are for Joe Biden right now, I keep hearing from Democrats who tell me they're convinced that it's actually not that big of a lead. Like there's such a fear of good poll numbers that they can't believe that they're real. Which is why it's funny, like every time these new polls come out that we point out, you'll see like Joe Biden's account or a high level Joe Biden staffer retweeted and say, don't believe the polls, ignore the polls. And it's like, well, at a certain point, there's been like 100 polls that say this. Last thing, Domenico, how has this trickled down to

the state of play in the Senate? Because, you know, again, this is a week where Joe Biden rolled out another really big policy proposal, a $2 trillion climate change plan. That plan doesn't amount to anything if Republicans are still in control of the Senate. Well, I think the thing that's really been eye-popping is twofold for me, has been number one, the money. A lot of these Democratic candidates have been holding their own or beating out some of these incumbent Republicans. I think of someone like Sarah Gideon in Maine, who's raised $23 million. You know, not someone who a lot of people are familiar with, statehouse speaker, out fundraising Susan Collins, who's been there for a very long time. She's raised $16 million. They both have about the same amount of cash on hand. So you have a lot of that going on with

fundraising that Democrats are actually doing quite well across the board in a lot of places. The other thing is just how much President Trump's numbers in the suburbs have cratered, and Republican operatives are so nervous about that. And that's why when we talk about the Senate, you know, a lot of these places have significant populations in the suburbs, Colorado, other places like that, where they need suburban women to come out and vote Republican, not necessarily even stay home. And they're voting overwhelmingly right now in the polls, you know, indicating their support for Democrats, you know, right now, and that is can be completely devastating. And it's why you're seeing the House, no one even talking about

Republicans making inroads in the House when the seats that Democrats picked up in 2018 were suburban right leaning seats. That is a massive, you know, warning sign for not just the Trump campaign and whether he can win in key states, but also these Senate candidates in swing states and House candidates in right-leaning places. All right. That's it for today. We'll be back tomorrow. Until then, you can head to npr.org slash politics newsletter to subscribe to a weekly roundup of our best online analysis. Shows up in your inbox every Saturday. I'm Scott Detrow. I cover the campaign. Thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.