The NPR Politics Podcast - Republicans Have Momentum With Voters. It Might Be Enough for a Wave in November.

Episode Date: April 29, 2022

In a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, 47% of registered voters surveyed said they are more likely to vote for the Republican in their district, as opposed to 44% who said they preferred a Democrat. Because congressional districts across the U.S. are drawn in a way that broadly favors Republicans, Democrats need a national lead of at least a few points to break even. The last time Republicans were up in our poll, in 2014, the party won control of both the House and the Senate.Despite Democrats' projected losses, though, it could still be a good year for progressives — who have the upper hand in a number of party primary races.This episode: congressional correspondent Susan Davis, political correspondent Juana Summers, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.Support the show and unlock sponsor-free listening with a subscription to The NPR Politics Podcast Plus. Learn more at plus.npr.org/politics Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Find and support your local public radio station.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Amy. My fiancé and I have a small farm in Woodinville, Washington, where I'm currently taking care of some weeding. I like listening to your show while I do the farm chores. This podcast was recorded at 1210 p.m. on Friday, April 29th. Things may have changed by the time you hear it. Okay, enjoy the show. I too like listening to podcasts when I'm doing errands, but I don't live anywhere near a farm. Yeah, but I still should probably do some weeding. It's not looking great back there. Yeah, it's time. I gotta cut the grass later. It's time for some spring cleanup.

Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover Congress. I'm Juana Summers. I cover politics. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And all signs are pointing to a difficult election season really is finally beginning in earnest. Next month, which starts in just a couple of days, 12 states are having either runoff or primary elections. And there's a lot at stake here. Domenico, for Republicans, what are you watching? Yeah, in a lot of states, there are some pretty key Senate races where Republican primaries are taking place. And we're going to see former President Trump's endorsements really tested in a lot of those places.

And Juana, I know you've been watching is number of races in which progressive candidates who have been making big gains over the last few years may have an opportunity to increase their power, even as Democrats may be in for a rough time of it. lines out of here, Domenico, is that more Americans by a very narrow three point margin, say they're more likely to vote for Republicans than Democrats this year. Now that is within the margin of error. But it's also notable because the last time Republicans had that advantage, it was a pretty good year for them. Yeah, that was 2014. You know, it's eight years since in Marist poll, we've had Republicans leading on what's known as the congressional ballot test, which party people prefer to be in control of Congress. And that's a huge warning sign for Democrats, because even just as of last year, Democrats were up five or six points at different times. In 2014, Republicans took back the House and Senate. And Democrats, when they've had big advantages,

you know, they usually need like a three or four point advantage or so to kind of break even because of how districts are drawn to favor Republicans broadly in this country, because most Democratic voters are kind of compacted in urban areas. So, you know, when Democrats have like a five, six point advantage on that question, like they did in 2018, when they took over the House, they do well. But if they're losing in that ballot, it really can spell trouble for Democrats. What accounts for the shift? Who are the voters that are moving away from the Democratic Party right now? Well, I mean, we've been talking about this for a while since the end of last year, thereabouts, middle of the fall. We saw independence really start to track away from President Biden. You know, there's a whole host of issues that could be related to that. You know, the Afghanistan withdrawal was one thing that certainly dented his competence level, a lot of strategists will tell me, but inflation has really become the top concern for Americans, and that has obviously continued to rise.

We've seen prices continue to rise, and in this survey, when we asked people which party you trust more to handle various issues, inflation, huge advantage for Republicans. Wow. More than 20-point advantage advantage people saying that they prefer Republicans to handle inflation. Does the poll speak at all to voter motivation? I mean, how, I don't know, angry or enthused or likely people are to vote in a midterm, especially when turnout like historically tends to be a lot lower than in national years? Well, we didn't have a, you know, an enthusiasm sort of meter specifically for that. But there's one indicator in President Biden's approval rating, which is only 41%.

It's ticked up a couple points from a pretty bad 39% in March, which is really not statistically significant because it's within the margin of error. But when you look at the intensity in those numbers, President Biden's really lacking with his base. He doesn't have a huge number of people who strongly approve of the job he's doing. Only 16 percent strongly approve of the job he's doing. Former President Trump used to get double that. On the flip side of that, the strongly disapprove numbers mirror also what President Trump used to have, former President Trump used to have, because you have 37% saying they strongly disapprove of the job President Biden is doing.

That sort of loosely translates to Republicans having more enthusiasm than Democrats at this point. Wanda, does that bear out in your reporting? I know you spend a lot of time talking to progressive voters and progressive activist groups. I mean, do you feel that lower level of enthusiasm in this election climate? Yeah, so in my conversations recently with a lot of progressive strategists, one thing that has certainly been true is the fact that they feel like the party in Washington has not delivered the type of bold change that they had hoped for, that they had been counting on, and that they feel like Biden ran on as a candidate. And I talked to a couple strategists recently who told me

they believe that may be one thing that is a huge warning sign when we look at turnout in these midterm elections. If people don't feel like their lives have been meaningfully changed in these big, bold ways, they cite things like meaningful action on climate change, for example, any kind of big student debt relief. Those things haven't materialized. So people may not be as excited to turn out as Democrats would hope, which, when you're thinking about control of Congress, that could be they could be in big trouble. What are the issues you I mean, you mentioned inflation, that's no surprise, the economy right now is regularly coming up as every vote, I think almost every voters number one concern. What else is driving people to vote this year?

Well, we wanted to ask about a host of issues. And, you know, really, what we see is that on the economy, you know, with inflation, national security and crime, Republicans have huge advantages. And obviously, they've pushed those narratives quite a bit during, you know, leading up to these midterm elections. And that's because they know how they poll. Let's be honest, they see where, how people feel about that. On the other side, people really do tend to favor Democrats when it comes to the coronavirus, for example, they have a double digit lead on that number. And we've seen President Biden actually have his approval rating, you know, be something above 50% when it comes to his handling of the coronavirus. And we see people slightly more optimistic about the end of the pandemic nearing. Some three

quarters of people say they think the end of the pandemic is near. That has been the overarching issue, the overarching, I'd say, reason why President Biden won, aside from the antipathy toward former President Trump, obviously, you know, so having Democrats lead on that issue could be helpful, let's say, in President Biden's reelection, if he were to run again, it might be too soon for Democrats in this midterm for it to make much of a difference. The other issues where Democrats are overwhelmingly, you know, favored is on climate change, LGBTQ rights, and on voting rights. Domenico, what does the poll show about how Black and Latino voters are feeling right now? Two thirds of Black voters actually approve of the job that President Biden is doing,

which is better than any other group except for self-declared Democrats and people who say that they supported President Biden in the 2020 election, which is pretty big for him. We know that that's a huge part of his base. However, there's a big divide when it comes to African Americans and Latinos. Latinos, a majority of Latinos disapprove of the job that President Biden is doing. And we saw from 2016 to 2020, pretty sizable shifts in certain places in counties with fairly large Latino populations in South Texas, South Florida, for example, where President Biden did worse than Hillary Clinton. There's something going on there with Latinos that the Democratic Party, you know, is sort of talking about, but it's really been undercovered.

All right, let's take a quick break. And when we get back, we'll talk about some of the primaries coming up. And we're back. And Juana, you've been reporting on progressive candidates and how they might fare in Democratic primaries this midterm cycle. Just recently, progressive Congressman Ro Khanna and Jamie Raskin were on the podcast, and they sort of acknowledged that Biden hadn't really delivered on a lot of the transformational change that he and other Democrats promised. You mentioned it earlier, but this has got to be a big point of frustration for progressive voters. They see it as a huge point of frustration. They believe that the president campaigned on

things that he and the party did not do, and that that will have a trickle-down effect of Democratic voters being unhappy with what Democratic majorities have done, and therefore being less motivated in some places to come out and support Democratic candidates. I talked to one strategist recently who told me that he believes this is going to be directly responsible for many working class people not coming out and turning out at the level that Democrats need in order to win. But he also told me that despite that, he believes progressives may actually be well positioned to come out of the midterms with some big victories, even if the Democratic Party is in a position to see some losses, possibly even lose control of the House. Because primary candidates or primary voters are the ones

most animated in these primary contests? One of the right ways that it was explained to me is because if you look at the calendar in some of these primaries, particularly some of the ones that are coming up in the next month, there are some immediate opportunities, they believe, for progressive to make gains to win in open Democratic seats where longtime incumbents are retiring. And that means those people, if they make it through their primary, they're very likely to win the general election because these are open Democratic seats, very likely then to head to Congress next year in 2023. And then they can have an immediate impact on the types of policies that the Democratic caucus pursues, the types of leaders that the

party puts forward. And they believe that that is still incredibly meaningful, even if it's not a great midterm season for the party writ large. I mean, one of the places that I found interesting is this race in Oregon, the fifth congressional district where Kurt Schrader has been a longtime Democrat, moderate, blue dog Democrat who got President Biden's endorsement. But there are a lot of progressives who are hoping that they can actually push him out after being there for so long. So I'm going to be really interested, for example, to look at that one in a state that in place it doesn't get as much attention. That race is on my list too. And notably, because Congressman Schrader is someone who has opposed

some of the president's key legislative priorities. And I actually have been asking some progressive strategists about that race specifically. And I talked with the head of Our Revolution, the group that spun out of the Bernie Sanders campaign. His name is Joseph Giefergeis. And he told me that he believes that President Biden's decision to endorse Kurt Schrader, and I should point out, that's the president's first endorsement of the 2022 campaign cycle. He called it a strategic mistake by Biden to weigh in in support of Schrader as opposed to supporting Jamie McLeod Skinner, who is the school board member who is challenging Schrader. When you look at the issues, a true progressive in that race, I think has a better shot than the current incumbent who was an obstructionist to the president's own agenda.

Wana, are there other races that you're following or other races you'd highlight that people should be watching as these primaries unfold to see if progressive candidates are sort of winning out? Yeah, things are starting to get really busy in the midterm calendar. I think the most immediate thing that comes to mind to me is what's going to happen on Tuesday. There's a big rematch happening in Ohio between Congresswoman Chantel Brown and Nita Turner, who's a former state senator in that state, as well as a top ally of Bernie Sanders. If you think back about a year ago, Brown won the seat. It's a Cleveland area district in a special election, and Turner is taking her on again. So I'm definitely watching that one next week. And then May 17th is also a really big day for some of the races that I'm interested in. It is that Oregon primary that Domenico and I were just talking about is happening that day. It is also primary day in Pennsylvania, where Summer Lee, who is a state representative, is running for the Pittsburgh area seat in which Congressman Mike Doyle is retiring. Polls suggest she's way out front, and she's had support from Sanders, the Congressional Progressive Caucus. So that's one

that folks have been telling me to watch. And there are also a couple really interesting primary contests in North Carolina that day. I'm keeping an eye on so safe to say there's a lot to look forward to even in just the next couple weeks. You know, it's interesting, Domenico, because like on the left, we've had this conversation about our progressives winning out. Is it the Bernie wing, the Biden wing? But similar dynamics are happening in the Republican Party. It's like the Trump wing versus the not so Trump wing, I should say. But the former president has been way more involved in primary races than any former president of certainly a modern times has chosen to be. And I think we're sort of watching to see if what kind of kingmaker Trump might still be in the

Republican Party. Yeah, I think you could probably not even argue, I think it's probably true that he's been more involved even than President Biden in these midterms. At this point, I mean, the endorsement list is massive and growing. And it's from everything from, you know, governors and senators on down to like borough presidents, you know, he really dives in and a lot of it's personal, obviously, you know, he really looks at these people, you know, figures out which of them are loyal. And frankly, one of his litmus tests is, are they an election denier? You know, do they buy his election lie and promulgate it throughout the country? I mean, personally, I'm really interested to see what happens in the Ohio and Pennsylvania

Senate races. Trump's picked favorite candidates there. And those seats are also very critical to the makeup of the Senate. So, I mean, you know, one thing I think broadly, it's like, what's the impact here? You know, as Juana talks about, there could be progressive candidates coming into Congress that move the party further to the left. And a lot of these Republican primaries, if a lot of these Trump candidates win, they could be sending more election deniers to Capitol Hill. And it seems like the sum total is depending on how they shake out, you know, Congress could be getting even more polarized if people can even believe that.

I mean, there's not a whole lot in common between an AOC-style Democrat and an election-denying Trump-style congressman. Yeah, I think no doubt about it that we're going to see some of that dynamic play out, especially in solid districts, you know, for one party or another. But there is the potential that if you get too extreme, that somebody winds up winning from the other party that maybe wouldn't have won if you had a less extreme candidate from the other party. Ohio is a good example in the Senate where Democrats feel like they might have a long shot chance if somebody who's more extreme winds up winning there and Republicans kind of bloody each other's noses for a while and have a lot of hard feelings. But, you know, this is one of those years for Republicans where they feel like there's going to be a high enough red

wave to push over some people who might not have won in other years. All right, let's take a quick break. And when we get back, it'll be time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back, and it's time to end the show like we do every week with Can't Let It Go, the part of the show where we talk about the things from the week we can't stop thinking about, politics or otherwise. Domenico, what can't you let go of this week? I can't let go of a really heartwarming story of American soldiers finally repaying an Italian quote girl back for a birthday cake they stole during World War II. What? Normally when it comes to things that are Italian, I can pronounce almost anything correctly, I think. But I'm going to mess up, I think, her name because it's Mary Mion, I think. I think it's got a French influence because it's from Northern Italy. But she was 13 years old.

American soldiers were in her village fighting Germans. And apparently, they had a pretty warm relationship with the American soldiers. They would feed them bread and wine. And I guess her mom baked her a cake for her 13th birthday, left it out on the windowsill to cool 77 years ago. And she went out to look for it and it was gone. And what happened? American soldiers had actually stolen it. And I guess they figured if you've got bread and wine, you've got, get the torta too, get the cake as well, I guess. What kind of cake was it? It was a cream and strawberry cake, which sounds a lot better in Italian if you were to call it crema e fragola.

Much nicer. Oh, that does sound nice. I want to order that off the menu. And since we're talking about birthdays, I have to wish my mom a happy birthday. It's her 70th birthday. So happy birthday, mom. I'm sure she's not listening because she doesn't listen to podcasts,

but maybe I'll make her listen to this one. Happy birthday, Mrs. Montanaro. Happy birthday. What can you let go of this week? Okay, so there is a story from Refinery29 that has been blowing up all of my group texts recently. And it is about the way that the culture is changing when it comes to booking appointments with Black hairstylists for Black women. And I love the story because

this is something I've been watching kind of happen for a long time. I know when I was growing up, going to the hair salon, my mom would let me go. It was like this big cultural experience. I felt very grown up being surrounded by all of these Black ladies getting my hair done so that I would look correct for church and not embarrass my family. But the culture is changing a lot. There's all these different platforms where you can book hair appointments online now. Not everybody necessarily has like a cosmetology degree. And some of the requirements that stylists are putting up right now, y'all, they've gotten a little crazy. I just want to read part of one of the things that's in this article. It's for Refinery29 again. They kind of collected a bunch of these different policies. And here's one of them. And I'm reading directly from someone's, I guess,

booking site. Please do not book if you have plans the same day of your appointment. There are days where I am behind and may need to push your appointment down due to late appointments or personal issues. I am human. If I do decide to push your appointment down due to late appointments or personal issues. I am human. If I do decide to push your appointment down and you have plans, you will simply just be rescheduled or canceled. Like how, if I'm getting my hair done, chances are you have plans. I've probably got somewhere. I'm busy. I've got somewhere to be.

So they're just canceling these appointments. I have so many friends who have been in situations like that. Or I know I had this experience where I just went to get my hair cut and comb coiled. And something that takes my normal stylist, used to take my normal stylist like two hours, and it took almost 12. Were you like, how much longer is this going to take? I was and I have to tell you, this actually ended up being a two day appointment. Because I again, one gets one's hair done ostensibly when you have somewhere to go and I had somewhere to be. And she had only finished about three quarters of my head. So I had to put on a head wrap and go do what I had to do, pretty frustrated, and then come back the next day for the owner of the salon to finish my hair because the woman had overbooked and overbooked and overbooked these stacks of appointments on top of each other. And she didn't have time to do my hair.

But, like, did you have to pay full price for that? Full price and a tip. And a tip for the owner who came back the next day. I feel like at a certain point of the hour mark, like they should start paying you. At some point, it's like costing you money to sit there for that long. Some of these disclaimers I was reading on here, I mean, saying like, my time is my own. Essentially, I'll show up when I want. I was like, wow. It is sadly common. And I think it's a big shift from like what I remember growing up experiencing as a kid. But I will say I have a great hairstylist. She shows up on time. She takes me at 8am before work. And I never have to worry about not making

my plans. And I will also not give anybody her phone number. She is sacred. And she's my secret. Never let that go. You can't let her go. Can't let her go. Don't let her go. Sue, what about you? The thing I should say, the person I can't let go this week is Hawaii Democratic Congressman Kai Kahele, or I should say soon to be former Hawaii Democratic Congressman. Really? Well, we'll get to that. The congressman was featured, and I want to properly credit the news organization because local journalism matters. There is a website called Honolulu Civil Beat that broke this story, although it has been

widely covered since. But they initially broke the story that their new congressman, he was elected to the seat that was held by former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, who left to run for president. So he won that seat. And they did a little investigative piece on him that ran earlier this month in which they showed that he had not actually shown up on Capitol Hill since January. He had been taking advantage of the vote by proxy rules that the House had enacted back in May of 2020 because of the pandemic. And he's been using COVID as a reason not to show up in Washington. Hawaii is far. Hawaii is far. I mean, that is a valid point. But when you compare that the senators and other congressmen have been regularly showing up in Washington, it's a little bit harder to make that argument.

So what's he been up to? So apparently, a couple of things that are funny about this. One, just not showing up, which I think a lot of people in the pandemic probably had fantasies of doing, but he's actually doing it. He has also apparently never given up his other job as being a pilot for Hawaiian Airlines. So he's still been working. But I think politically, he's also used a lot of that time to begin plotting a run for governor. So he did show back up on Capitol Hill this week, and he was getting a lot of attention because of this story about how he had never been there. But he basically showed up back in Washington to give notice. Multiple news outlets have reported that he told Democratic leaders he is going to not be running for reelection because he's going to run for governor

of Hawaii. I would just say simply, he's proven that he would much rather be in Hawaii than be in Washington. So maybe that's a better job for him. I mean, wouldn't you? I mean, say simply he's proven that he would much rather be in Hawaii than be in Washington. So maybe that's a better job for him. I mean, wouldn't you? I mean, isn't he ethically not supposed to have another job while he's in Congress? Yeah, it's a little weird. I mean, some lawmakers still do some things, but they're really not supposed to take like a salary from other positions? It's a complicated question, but it certainly has put him under a spotlight where I have to tell you, I'm not sure a lot of people exactly knew who Kai Kahele was for long because he's never on Capitol Hill. I just want to go to Hawaii. This makes me think about how much I need

a vacation. You can get a lot of work done on a 12-hour flight. I could. You know, you go on a 12-hour flight and then you don't come back. Exactly. Like Kai Kahaly. All right. That is a wrap for us today. Our executive producer is Mathoni Mottori. Our editors are Eric McDaniel and Christian of Calamore. Our producers are Lexi Schapittle, Elena Moore, and Casey Morrell. Thanks to Brandon Carter. I'm Susan Davis. I cover Congress.

I'm Juana Summers. I cover politics. And I'm Domenica Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.