The NPR Politics Podcast - Roundup: Manchin's Moves, Election News, Panda Blues

Episode Date: November 10, 2023

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) announced he wouldn't seek another term, fueling speculation he's gearing up for a presidential run. Meanwhile, new speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) is facing a major challenge to avoid a government shutdown next week, and statewide elections throughout the country this week led to good results for Democrats.Plus, a farewell to Mei Xiang, Tian Tian and Xiao Qi Ji. This episode: senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, congressional correspondent Claudia Grisales, voting correspondent Ashley Lopez, and senior political editor & correspondent Domenico Montanaro.The podcast is edited by Casey Morell. It is produced by Jeongyoon Han. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for NPR and the following message come from the Kauffman Foundation, providing access to opportunities that help people achieve financial stability, upward mobility, and economic prosperity, regardless of race, gender, or geography. Kauffman.org Hello, this is Burdell. I'm currently sitting in my car in the parking lot after turning in my security badge, which starts my transition

into civilian life after 20 years of active duty. Wow. This podcast was recorded at... 12.08 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday, November 10th. Some things may have changed since the recording, including me, which now I'll have to figure out where to work in whatever my next job is. All right? Enjoy the show.

Oh, my gosh. That's so cool. Thank you for your service. Yes. And enjoy receiving retirement while also having another job. Exactly. Civilian life rocks now. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. I'm Claudia Grisales. I cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

And we're going to start the roundup today on Capitol Hill, where one senator made some big news yesterday. I've made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for reelection to the United States Senate. But what I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together. That's Joe Manchin, the Democratic senator from West Virginia, someone who has been both a savior to Democrats and a thorn in their sides.

Claudia, there were a lot of eyes on what he would do next. Is this a surprise? You know, in some ways, it is not even as shocking and surprising as it did feel yesterday, just in terms of the timing. But I've always had just one word in my mind that runs through it that a Republican once told me, they called him a black box. So basically, expect the unexpected when it comes to Manchin. He's a bit of a lone wolf. He could make any kind of decision on any kind of topic. It's really going to be tied to a complex series of issues that he has going on in terms of kind of his unique position as being a Democratic senator from West Virginia who's been able to hold on to office this long and be as

successful as he has been in his role for that state. And so there's been a lot of rumors about him taking on a potential presidential bid as an outsider. And you have to wonder if that's the direction he's going to be heading in, if that potential is going to be even bigger now. Yeah, and there's a lot of progressives who are thrilled with this, you know, this, the idea that they no longer have to shape legislation around someone like Joe Manchin, who has continuously sort of played like this legislative Hamlet over and over again, where he sort of was on one side of it, then not, then not, then on another side of it, wanting to tamp this down or change this piece or whatever. The only thing I would say to that is, you know, I can understand that point of view,

provided that Democrats keep the Senate. And he just really imperiled Democrats' chances of keeping the Senate because they're facing such a difficult landscape and state of play in 2024 when it comes to the Senate. I mean if you look at the Cook Political Report, there are seven seats that are either toss-up or lean right now that are Democratic seats. There are zero Republican seats in that. So a lot of defense, all defense right now for Democrats in 2024. And don't you think that if Manchin felt confident that he could win in deep red, super Trumpy West Virginia, that he would run again? Not necessarily. This is somebody I've interviewed him for many years. I met him first, I think in 2010 or so. And he just would say over and over again how much he disliked being a senator, how he really liked being a governor, how he just really didn't enjoy the Senate at all. And so it's not totally surprising. And if somebody's gotten in his ear to convince him that he somehow would be able to win the presidency, then I think that that's something that is a carrot for him to be able to lure him out of a place where he doesn't want to be and into more of an executive position. tight for this magic middle, which we've talked about over and over again. There just isn't this kind of agreement in the middle that's going to make someone like a Manchin president in 2024.

Right. We're really seeing a deterioration of that. When we look at Mitt Romney, who's also exiting the Senate, that middle is really disappearing quickly from the Senate. And it's clear that's what's made this really appetizing in terms of Manchin considering other options now. In the abstract, voters will say, oh, we want people to work together. We value moderates. And then they vote. And it's super polarized. And it's red team versus blue team. And like, there is no purple team jersey. So there you have it. Let's talk about the house. And the new a few days ago, I would have said it's gone just in terms of just weighing all the infighting that we continue to see from a wing of the Republican Party. caucus, if you will. But when I look at how House Republicans at this very moment are trying to get behind Johnson, in terms of a bit of a wild idea in terms of how to fund the government, he's looking at something that's being termed a ladder CR, it's kind of a two step, temporary funding

plan, it had multiple stops along the way. We're used to just one solid date, as in November 17th is a government shutdown deadline approaching next. But this would put in multiple dates for potential shutdowns of pieces of the government. It's very complicated. And an idea like that previously would have been shot down super fast. And there were grumblings about it in terms of how confusing and how it could lose leverage for Republicans. And just seeing that idea still being kept alive, Johnson keeping his plans for what this temporary funding measure

could look like under wraps still to this day, just a few days to go before this deadline on the 17th, is telling me that Republicans are still trying to stay in this honeymoon period as of this moment. But we'll see. Next week could break it up really quick. Yeah, I mean, there's a week left until the government runs out of funding. And you know, when you've got a week left on your honeymoon, you know, there's really only like a few days here left before he's got to start thinking about the flight home. And, you know, there's really only like a few days here left before he's got to start thinking about the flight home. Right. And, you know, we're talking middle of this. And who's going to empty the dishwasher later?

Did you, you know, clean the litter box before you left? You know, what's waiting for you in the sink if you didn't tidy up? I don't know how long we're going to take this metaphor out. But the fact is he's facing some real problems if they don't get something passed on the 17th. And there's going to be a lot of stories that start to be written about how this quote unquote, you know, consensus candidate from Republicans who moderates like to conservatives like couldn't figure out how to govern with Democrats who also run the Senate and have the White House. Well, and let's just say that this laddered continuing resolution idea is very much untested. And the reaction from the Senate and the White

House, both Republicans and Democrats in the Senate, mind you, is, no, that's not going to work. So even if it could pass the House, that's probably not going to be where things end up. You never know. There could be negotiations. But House Republicans have said that what they really want is regular order. They want to pass these government funding bills that fund various agencies, these big bills. This week, two of them were supposed to come up for a vote, and they had to pull both of them because they didn't have the votes among Republicans. Right. These are the warning signs. These are the cracks in the veneer. These are the worrisome setbacks that Republicans have seen this week. This is one of their first full weeks working together like this. Their hours, by the way, I don't know if you've noticed, but they are going from early in the morning to late at night. So they're trying to push really hard. This was one of the complaints

from House Republicans with under former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. They were not at the House enough. So they are doing that piece. But in terms of figuring out a pathway to close the deal on these appropriations bills, it's unclear if they can get there. And that is the theme when I was talking to some of these folks who have been engaged in fights within the conference and those who have not outside of it who have been concerned about members attacking each other still as Johnson is speaker, is that they're worried that this has taken the oxygen out of those efforts. And they say the way to get back on the same page to continue to unify is to do work together and pass bills together on the floor.

And the less they do that, the more that threatens the conference in terms of progress they'll make moving forward and Johnson's speakership. All right, we're going to take a quick break. Claudia, grab some water or a snack and we'll bring you back for Can't Let It Go. More in a second. And we're back. And let's bring in Ashley Lopez, who covers voting. Hey, Ashley. Hey there. There were elections this week. Ohio voters decided to enshrine access to abortion in the state constitution. Kentucky reelected its Democratic governor, even though it's a red state. Virginia's legislature went Democratic. And in all of those places, abortion was either directly or indirectly on the ballot. So, Domenico, what were your lessons from this? It certainly seems that in the aftermath of, really, really use the issue of abortion across

the country. You know, even in Virginia, where the state legislature was up for grabs, every single ad that you saw really on the Democratic side had to do mostly with abortion rights. In fact, across the country, according to Ad Impact, who we have a partnership with, which tracks ads. More than 350,000 abortion-related ads were run on television or online, three-quarters of those by Democrats, more than $90 million on the issue. Republicans tried to counteract that with crime and really to not much avail. They're really sort of trying to win over, in particular, women in the suburbs who care about the abortion rights issue. And they thought that crime would be a thing that could maybe offset some of that. And once again, really, they were wrong and failed on that. And

Democrats feel pretty good about this issue set, again, being on their side. Yeah, it's like they re-ran the 2022 midterms election strategy and the results were similar. Yeah, because, you know, usually these kinds of electorates in an off year with a Democrat in the White House, Republicans, you would think, would be the ones who would be fired up. And we've said that now repeatedly during the Biden presidency that it's been the opposite. Yeah. So, Ashley, given that this abortion issue is still really driving voters, and maybe we shouldn't be surprised by that, but given that it is still really driving voters across party lines at times, we're hearing now that Democrats and pro-abortion rights groups are planning to focus on the issue even more, trying to get more ballot measures on the ballot for 2024. Yeah, so for sure we know there are going to be ballot measures in Maryland

and New York on this issue, but there are some potential measures in the works in, I think, some pretty interesting states. Advocates are in key states like Florida and Arizona collecting signatures right now for measures on their ballots that would enshrine abortion rights in their state constitution. Actually, when I was in South Florida earlier this week and went to Trump's rally, as I was leaving, I saw a volunteer with Planned Parenthood who was holding a clipboard and asking for signatures, which I thought that was a pretty interesting venue. And so I was just curious. I asked her, I'm like, you know, has anyone actually signed these signatures and given you their signature? And she said that, yes, actually, some folks who DeSantis signed a six-week ban. So I think if the court upholds that 15-week ban, they get a six-week ban right after. So I think this is a place where,

like, obviously this issue is front and center. And in Arizona, advocates there are collecting signatures as well for a measure that would ensure people have access to abortions up to 24 weeks, which is kind of what it was before, obviously, the Dobbs decision. And I mean, there are also states like Colorado, Nevada, Nebraska, also gathering signatures. And, you know, also, I will say on the other side, there are folks wanting to put ballot measures for 2024 that would clarify that there is no right to the procedure in their state. Iowa is definitely one of the states that's going to have that question in front of voters. Yeah. I mean, you know, considering all of the vulnerabilities of President Biden right now,

and certainly a lot of the discussion that's taken place around his age, which continues to be a thing that a lot of people talk about, you know, these polls that came out showing him losing to former President Trump in several swing states. You know, this is one avenue. At least a couple of Democratic strategists I talked to this week said that this showing the salience of abortion rights and these ballot initiatives, there's going to be a real push and a real effort to put abortion on the ballot in key swing states to really be able to help boost some of Biden's turnout to keep that coalition together. Right. And the list of states that Ashley just mentioned includes Nevada, Arizona, Florida. These are all states that Democrats want to win. And certainly with Arizona and Nevada states that Democrats need to win in order for President Biden to be reelected. Well, I mean, it makes a lot of sense, right? Like if you have two candidates

right now, the leading candidates for each party are people that voters largely don't like. If you put the focus on an issue, it tends to be very helpful for, you know, especially Democrats in this case, because this is an issue where the majority of the public is mostly on their side. So, I mean, I'm not surprised at all that this is like a, you know, a strategy at the very least from at least advocates on this side to put the measure to voters next year in an election where they know they're going to be candidates that a lot of people don't like on the ballot. Yeah. And Ashley, we we talked about Governor Andy Beshear winning reelection in Kentucky. He's a Democrat in a red state. But you were saying that you saw something even more interesting that happened down ballot. primary he went through with two Republican state lawmakers who were election deniers. I mean, I think there is what I've been seeing is like a larger trend of election deniers overall not doing too well in races across the country. Now, I think secretary of state elections are particularly important because usually these are the folks, the folks in those roles are like the

chief elections officer in their state. So how they view what happened in 2020 is very relevant. Adams had been publicly saying that the election was not stolen? Yeah, he had been saying this throughout his entire primary, that he did not agree with his opponents who believed the election was stolen. You know, he didn't like beat around the bush at all about it. He said he did not agree with his party at all on this issue. And he won. He won his primary. And he has continued to, you know, discuss this issue. He's not shy about saying that the 2020 election was not stolen, which is interesting for a Republican. I'm going to keep an eye on this because right now what we're seeing, like after the 2022 election, is that on average, Republicans who are not election

deniers are doing better when matched up against election deniers. But, you know, it hasn't been enough time to fully get a data set on that. But so far, that's what we're seeing, which I think is interesting. Let's turn to another topic, which is candidates that are neither Democrats nor Republicans. Jill Stein announced that she is trying to be the Green Party's presidential candidate for a third cycle. She was at the top of their ticket in 2012 and 2016 and got a lot of blame from Democrats for Hillary Clinton losing the election in 2016. She joins academic Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as third party challenges to both Biden and the eventual GOP nominee, which at the moment looks like Trump. And then there's Joe Manchin, who we were talking about earlier, who does not

seem to be ruling out a third party run of his own. And he spent a lot of time with a group called No Labels. Domenico, that's like a lot of third party action. You know, I've been saying for a little bit now that I would, it's hard. It's very hard for me to see how Donald Trump gets more than 47% of the vote. I mean, he didn't in 2016. He did not in 2020. So what he would need is really a third party, some third party help to sort of widen the pathway for him. And it looks like he might be getting it. You know, in 2016, it was about 7% of the vote that went third party. And with disaffection being as high as it is now, certainly there are a lot of Democrats worried it could get that high

again, because in 2020, it was less than 2% of the vote as the Democratic base kind of coalesced and realized that in order to take Trump out of office, they needed to get behind Biden. And right now, again, with disaffection being as high as it is, Biden's base looks like it could fray with some of these third party candidates. I mean, if you think about where they fit in, Manchin really gets a lot of these, could threaten to get a lot of these anti-Trump moderates. Cornel West certainly has some appeal with black voters. And you think about a state like Georgia where that could be hugely important. Young voters.

I mean, think about Jill Stein and how she decided to announce her run, saying that there needed to be a ceasefire in Gaza, something that young voters in the Democratic Party are in favor of, but older voters in the Democratic Party less so. So really, sort of all of these groups that need to be behind Biden for Biden to be able to win, really threatened by a lot of these potential third party candidacies. Well, and then to counterbalance it, you have RFK Jr., who has become something of a darling of right wing podcasts. A lot of his bases come from there.

Yeah, I don't know if it's a counterbalance, though, to those. I think that RFK Jr. draws from both Biden and from Trump. I mean, he is a Kennedy. He's got that very famous last name, you know, and he obviously does have some of the younger right wing folks because of a lot of his stances on vaccinations. He's really been against vaccinating children in a lot of cases. So, you know, how he draws is going to be interesting to watch. The data really isn't clear right now on how much he pulls from either party. And the other question that I have is ballot access. The Green Party has done a decent job of maintaining ballot access. RFK Jr. has a lot of money. Cornel West, it's not clear that he has the ability to get on a lot of ballots.

It's actually not that easy to get on the ballot. And No Labels is saying that they're going to try to get ballot access all over the country. So I guess, well, it's early. And we'll see how much of a factor they ultimately end up being versus how they're showing up in the polls now. We're going to leave it there for now.

Ashley, we are cutting you loose. Thank you so much. Yeah, thanks for having me. And we're going to take one more break. And when we get back, it is time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back. And so is Claudia Casales. Hello again.

Hey there. It is time for Can't Let It Go, the part of the pod where we talk about the things from the week that we just cannot stop thinking about, politics or otherwise. Claudia, you first. Well, what I cannot let go of is I got to do something that you're a little familiar with, Tam. And so my day job is covering the Hill, of course, but sometimes we get to take a detour like yesterday, the White House team needed someone to do radio pool for the White House for Air Force One travel with the president. And so I had done it once before last year, I was very rusty.

But it was a great experience. I was so excited to do it again. And we are grateful that you were able to step in and help us out. Super grateful. I loved it because one in part, this happened last year and again this year, is I got to do a lift, which is on an Osprey. Yeah. And an Osprey is not a helicopter. It is a tilt rotor aircraft that's sort of like part plane, part helicopter. It feels super weird. Basically, there should be Osprey parks. That's all I'm saying. Everyone needs to ride an Osprey. But I'm glad you enjoyed your ride.

I loved it. I could scream on the Osprey yesterday like a roller coaster ride, and no one could hear me because it's that loud. Yeah. And I don't even put on my seatbelts now. I don't know if I'm asking for trouble, but I'm just like so... I think so. I think you need to put the seatbelt on. You know, I've never been on an Osprey, but I have been on a helicopter a couple of times. And, you know, the perspective and the agility is really interesting. I took one over the Grand Canyon and it was definitely the way to see it. That's for sure. It's beautiful.

So, Domenico, what can't you let go of? You know, what I can't let go of is back to sort of politics a little bit, but it's John Fetterman and his sort of the way he's and, you know, his struggles, as he talked about, with mental health and depression and kind of trying to get better with his speech patterns. You know, we saw the highly publicized debate that he had against Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, which Fetterman won. But what he's been doing lately has been a very provocative support of Israel. He was seen waving an Israeli flag at Palestinian protesters. He has posters in his office now that are lining the walls of people who'd been kidnapped by Hamas. He's obviously in a very provocative way trying to show what he believes the Democratic Party

should stand for. And we've seen this fracture happening on some portions of the Democratic base that are really sort of threatening Biden's, you know, re-election chances in 2024, because it's a tough spot to be in. But he's just been a fascinating person to watch. And I just wonder, Claudia, you seeing him on Capitol Hill, what you've seen of him in these months since he's won re-election? Yeah, it's really interesting watching his evolution as a politician on the Hill. You know, he just brings that, you know, Pennsylvania energy. And in terms of just even like the dress code, you know, that was, you know, he drew a lot

of attention in terms of casual dress, became this big conversation. And also his ability to maneuver, you know, through these kind of just medical challenges he's had, but come back again and again. And every time he comes back to the Hill, it just seems like he's coming more into his own in terms of just talking to reporters, for example. We weren't able to access him before as much. And now it's a different case. He's very much willing to talk to us, keep us posted.

He's so outspoken about so many different issues, including this one recently. So it's just really interesting to see where he is. And also kind of this split screen. We also saw that yesterday traveling with the president in terms of all of these protests all over the country and Chicago included where people are yelling, Biden, Biden, you can't hide, just calling for this ceasefire. So it is this piece of split in this portion of the Democratic wing is developing. And Fetterman's like one of those symbols there in terms of where we can see that happen. Also fascinating is that he has been so vocal in calling for his fellow Senator Bob Menendez, who has been indicted, calling for him to resign. Not only that, but he also was out there speaking about the presidential election and saying

that he's supporting Biden and he wishes that these other candidates would be honest about the fact that they're actually running. He said at least Dean Phillips is and then called out Gavin Newsom, the California governor, even though Newsom says that he's not running and that he's fully endorsing Biden. Wow. So, Tam, what can't you let go of? I can't let go of the pandas. Well, you need to because they're gone.

Yeah. Or more accurately, I can't let go of the coverage of the departure of the pandas. So just a little background. Well, here in Washington, D.C., we have been letting go. We have been saying our goodbyes, a very extended goodbye to the pandas who have lived for many years at the National Zoo. However, all pandas actually belong to China and are just on loan from China. And China has recalled their ambassadors. Panda diplomacy at this moment has ceased at the National Zoo. And so yesterday the pandas left and the pandas left in these FedEx trucks with pandas emblazoned on the side. And there was play by play at every stop from NBC for Washington. That is just remarkable. Starting at the gates of the zoo. Wow, there they go.

We know that at least the order they went into the trucks and into the crates, we had Mei Zhang first, then TNTN, and the baby cub, Chao Qiji, bringing up the rear. So maybe that's the order they're in right now. Yeah. Maybe. Who knows? But let's speculate. Oh my gosh.

And then they follow them. They've got helicopters. They've got people at the airport. Sounds like it was pandemonium. I'm trying to catch a glimpse. Oh, there's his face. Oh, man. Oh, my gosh.

Can you see it, you guys? Look, it's saying goodbye. Oh, my gosh. It's peering out. That's precious. Oh. Let me tell you, I love the zoo. But the number of times I've seen the pandas actually come out or do anything, I could count on one hand.

I agree. And what do they do? They just sit there, roll around maybe, chew on some bamboo. I don't know. I know. I agree. The crowds, I don't know. I've looked out.

We've seen them every time when we've gone, but it's huge crowds. And then you get there, it's a little anticlimactic, like, okay, I'm just watching this. They are very fuzzy and cute. They're still bears. They are. I prefer the tigers, honestly, the lions. crowds and then you get there it's a little anticlimactic like okay i'm just they are they are very fuzzy and cute they're still bears i prefer the tigers honestly the lions the if you've heard the roar of the lion at the zoo that's a shocking thing yeah maybe china will put up a panda cam yeah there you go all right that's all for this week our executive producer is mithani maturi casey morerell edits the podcast. Jung Yoon Han produces it. Thanks to Krishna Dev Kalimer and Lexi Schipittel. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the

White House. I'm Claudia Grisales. I cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.