The NPR Politics Podcast - The Battle For The Base

Episode Date: February 23, 2024

The South Carolina Republican primary is tomorrow. Former President Donald Trump is favored to win, but the contest will test how much appetite remains for a different Republican nominee. And how Republicans are reacting to last week's Alabama Supreme Court ruling that embryos created through IVF, are children under a state law. This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, presidential campaign correspondent Sarah McCammon, presidential campaign reporter Stephen Fowler, and White House correspondent Asma Khalid. This podcast was produced by Casey Morell. Our editor is Erica Morrison. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Autograph Collection Hotels, with over 300 independent hotels around the world, each exactly like nothing else. Autograph Collection is part of the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio of hotel brands. Find the unforgettable at AutographCollection.com. This is Ryan in Los Angeles, and I'm doing the very boring thing of eating a sandwich in between Zoom calls. This podcast was recorded at 12.08 p.m. on Friday, February 23rd. Things may have changed by the time you hear this. Okay, here's the show.

Okay, but that's so relatable, right? Now I need to know what kind of sandwich. If I was going to have a sandwich, it would probably be a BLT. I think that's a good sandwich. I don't know. That was a pretty crunchy bite at the end, so it was probably something good like that. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast.

I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign. I'm Stephen Fowler. I also cover the presidential campaign. And the South Carolina Republican presidential primary is tomorrow. Sarah and Stephen, you're both on the ground there and you've been talking to voters all week. Former President Donald Trump, of course, is favored to win. But this contest will test how much appetite remains

for a different nominee for the Republican Party and just how popular former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is in her home state. So, Stephen, let's start with you. This isn't your first trip to South Carolina. You spent a lot of time there this year. What have you heard from voters in the lead up to the primary? Well, you know, I've heard a lot more about Donald Trump than about Nikki Haley, even at Nikki Haley events, even asking people specifically about Nikki Haley, because you have to remember, he's a former president. He's very popular among the Republican primary base and the electorate that's showing up. And he's basically running as an incumbent, even though obviously it's an open primary.

And so this is the Donald Trump show still just the latest edition is in South Carolina. I mean, in fact, I'm sitting outside of the Winthrop Coliseum in Rock Hill, South Carolina, where there are already hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of people lining up waiting to see Trump for this election eve rally. And, you know, most of the voters that I've talked to are all in for Trump and not just all in for Trump, but they paint his election and him being the nominee and him winning again in their minds as this sort of dire situation where it's, you know, he's got to win or else. That's something I hear, too. You know, Stephen, I've mostly been covering the Haley campaign. But one man I met this week who supports Donald Trump told me he thinks Trump is the only person who can save the republic, as he put it.

Of course, a smaller percentage of the Republican Party, there is that lane for Haley, people who support her. And they see a lot of threats to the country that they think she could solve. They want someone who they think would bring more stability. But I hear that kind of rhetoric about Trump as well. Stephen, did the voters give you any sort of sense of what makes them feel this sort of level of fear or desperation or focus on Trump as sort of the only answer to the problems? I've heard a lot of things talking to a lot of voters, mainly things like immigration and the border between U.S. and Mexico, also the economy, you know, the laundry list of things that gets people to the polls. But the specifics aren't really there in the way that you might think. I mean, a lot of the people that I've talked to are very well-off, often retired voters,

people that have moved to South Carolina from other places who objectively are doing OK. Yet the vibes are very doom and gloom because what they see happening elsewhere or what they think is happening elsewhere is just this kind of doom and gloom scenario. And Donald Trump is the only person that can kind of fix it. And, you know, that point about retirees moving to South Carolina is one of many reasons why Nikki Haley, you know, her time as governor isn't necessarily resonating as much with the primary electorate. But the other thing, too, is that with Donald Trump, you know, some of the voters that I talked to said that Nikki Haley is perfectly fine and good for the party, but now is not her time. I mean, it's a reverse kind of age discourse going on where because she's younger, you know, there's the 2028 election or 2032 or sometime down the road. That's interesting that she's got her whole future ahead of her. It's not her time.

That is very interesting. You know, she said this week in her speech on Tuesday when she said she's staying in the race, no matter what, even after South Carolina, she said she doesn't have her eye on a future presidential run or a vice presidential run. But, you know, it's hard to think that isn't somewhere in the back of her mind. That's often why people continue campaigns, whether they're likely to succeed or not. Stephen, you get a sense from these voters that even the diehard Trump supporters, like, what is their feelings towards Nikki Haley? I just think of, you know, Trump really attacked and turned on Ron DeSantis, a former opponent in this primary. And you could

hear that trickle down with voters, that Trump's view of him sort of trickled down to voters, say, I don't really like him, Ron DeSanctimonious, all of those things. Trump has also started to attack Nikki Haley. Like, have they embraced his personal attack of her on the same level? I think yes and no. I mean, I think you could insert Republican name here that is not Donald Trump and that has ever said anything other than glowing praise for Donald Trump and they would have the same reaction. So it's not necessarily about Nikki Haley. Some of the people that I talk to that are South Carolina natives, you know, say that they like Nikki Haley and liked her time as governor and that it's more just a Trump thing. So it's kind of like, you know, it doesn't matter what Nikki Haley did or didn't do or how she's held herself in the years since she was governor. They're like, it's still all in on Trump, which is interesting because a lot of the same voters that are the key constituency of Donald Trump and driving his dominant force in the GOP are the types of voters

that more than a decade ago propelled Nikki Haley to the national stage. And Sari, obviously, you spent a lot more time with Haley voters. I'm curious about these voters and how they view Donald Trump. I think one of the big questions is, if they're not for Trump in the primary, are they going to come home and vote for him if he is ultimately the nominee? Or is the distaste so great that they might sit it out or vote third party or even consider voting for Joe Biden? The short answer is that most Republican voters I talk to, even those who support Nikki Haley, are at least thinking about voting for Trump if he's the nominee. But, you know, a lot of them express a lot of reluctance about that and kind of seem like they're not ready to face that possibility. You know, these are Republican voters. Many of them are very skeptical of Joe Biden. I've heard several say to me this week that they think he's just too old. They are concerned about his age and disagree with him on

some policy issues. You know, one woman I met in Beaufort, South Carolina this week at a Haley rally, Laura A. Church, told me, you know, she's a Republican, but she's kind of over Trump. I have supported Trump in the past, but I'm tired of the banner, the childish banner. We need someone that's a true leader that, yeah, doesn't always talk about himself. Her voters, are they clear-eyed about her chances? Do they understand that she's not likely to be the nominee? And sort of how do you get the sense that they still want her to stay in and fight for something, even if it's maybe not ultimately the nomination? Absolutely. I heard that so much from voters, both in her hometown, which I visited yesterday and in Beaufort the other day. This idea, you know, they've heard

her say this week she's staying in. She's going at least through Super Tuesday. She's also said she's going to stay in until the last person votes. But it certainly looks like the campaign has a strategy through Super Tuesday and a little bit beyond. And, you know, I've heard several people say, look, I think it's important that she not quit now. They're tired of Trump. They want to hear that alternative voice. I don't think they're all totally clear on what happens after that, though, right? Like, for one thing, this delegate math stuff is complicated. It's hard for even people who spend their whole jobs thinking about it to fully understand it.

And so I think a lot of people hear her say, only a few states have voted. Donald Trump is chaos. And there is that land of the Republican Party where people agree with that and they are just ready for something new. And they're saying, hey, yeah, she should keep at it. All right. We need to take a quick break. And Stephen, I'm going to let you go. But we're going to talk to you again later in the show for Can't Let It Go. Be back soon. And of course, with the primary happening tomorrow, we will be back in your feeds with the results when we have them.

All right. We'll be right back. This message comes from NPR sponsor, the NPR Wine Club, a place to explore the exciting world of wine, including wines inspired by popular NPR shows like Weekend Edition Cabernet. Whether buying a few bottles or joining the club, all purchases help support NPR programming and fund quality reporting developed to connect people to their communities and the world they live in. More at nprwineclub.org slash podcast. Must be 21 or older to purchase. And we're back, and White House correspondent Asma Khalid joins us now.

Hey, Asma. Hey there. Good to be with you. And an Alabama Supreme Court ruled last week that embryos created through the fertility treatment of in vitro fertilization, or IVF, are children under a state law. This ruling has forced some providers in the state to pause IVF treatments to sort through the legal implications. Sarah, before we get into the politics of it, I'm going to ask you to put on your policy reporter hat because you've covered the issue of abortion and reproductive rights for a long time for NPR. Can you explain why this is such a controversial ruling and how the IVF process often results in many embryos? So the IVF procedure,

brings together sperm and egg, and some of those embryos get implanted in a uterus and turn into babies, but some of them are left over and people have to decide what to do with them. That creates ethical and moral concerns for people who believe that life begins at conception, that an embryo has moral significance. And so that's how this kind of comes into the larger abortion debate. And Sarah, the IVF ruling is once again forcing Republicans to talk about reproductive rights on the campaign trail. Yeah, the challenge here is that on the one hand, there is, you know, a longstanding narrative among abortion opponents that, quote, unquote, life begins at conception.

And there's this idea that many conservative Republicans hold to that life should be protected from the very beginning. And that often means absolute opposition to abortion. At least that's what people say. But then when you press them on it, there is a whole lot of nuance in how people feel about a whole variety of questions around pregnancy and fertility. There's some polling from Kellyanne Conway, the former advisor to former President Trump, that suggests that there's overwhelming support for treatments like in vitro fertilization, even among evangelical Christians and people who identify as pro-life, even though at the same time they might oppose abortion, you know, as early as six weeks or so. So that creates a challenge in terms of messaging. And this is all happening at

the same time, of course, that we've seen abortion bans take effect in many states in the wake of the DOPS decision a couple of years ago. We've seen, you know, backlash to that at the polls the last two years. And so I think Republicans are struggling with what to say about it. I think that's such a good point, though, because we've talked so much about abortion politics and how stark the divide is on this issue, especially between the two parties, how complicated American views are on this. And IVF isn't that complicated. This is actually something that is a process that is very popular, that has overwhelming support among the public. And as you noted, this is a way that even evangelical Christians have used to have babies, even liberals, atheists used to have babies. IVF is more of a connective issue than a divisive one. And I think being seen as a party that might

oppose access to this is going to be a wildly unpopular thing with the general public. Well, so much of the marketing from the anti-abortion movement, you know, surrounds the idea of having babies, you know, loving babies. And this is a technique that literally creates babies, right? And so, and as you said, it's overwhelmingly popular. I think the best example of the struggle with this messaging comes from Nikki Haley this week. You know, she was asked in an interview with NBC News for her thoughts on the Alabama ruling, and she said that she did see embryos as children. She quickly had to walk that back.

And in a follow-up interview with Newsmax and other outlets, she said essentially that while she personally feels that an embryo is a child, she would never want to prevent another woman from having, you from having the blessing of a baby, as she put it. So we're seeing Haley walk those remarks back. We saw Alabama Governor Kay Ivey told our member station in Alabama, WBHM, that she would support legislation to address this and try to create protections for in vitro fertilization. I think this is something that Republicans are quickly realizing is really bad messaging for them. And Asma, this is something that Democrats, even if you go back to the 2022 Dobbs decision,

Democrats and liberals would argue, hey, this isn't going to stop at abortion. It's going to expand as IVF is going to be next. And people are like, oh, that's extreme. That's crazy. And I think this has given Democrats an opportunity to say, look, we told you so. That's right. And they are putting the blame squarely at the feet of Donald Trump. I was out with the vice president yesterday in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and she was doing this reproductive rights roundtable. She's been kind of the administration's lead spokesperson on issues around abortion. And one thing she said when folks asked her about this IVF ruling is this very point. I talked about it from the beginning when the Dobbs decision came down, that we were looking

at what potentially would be the beginning of the erosion of so many fundamental rights, in particular around reproductive freedom. And so we have seen that states around our country have taken everything from an individual's ability to make decisions about their own body to access to reproductive health care, limiting how people can get access to reproductive health care in very substantial ways. And so you are going to see the Biden-Harris campaign try to make this into a major political issue ahead of the 2024 election. It is interesting to me, too, because we go through these sort of ebbs and flows in the news cycle where it feels like issues of abortion and reproductive rights sort of get quieter. And then they ride these waves where these state decisions and court decisions are still happening in real time. And I think we keep learning that they really do have a way of not only forcing politicians

to respond. I was kind of amazed this week watching how many people felt they needed to weigh in on this. But also that these are issues that really do resonate and connect with Americans in their everyday lives. This is not some unheard of esoteric government policy. IVF is a really common thing in America. I mean, Sue, to that point, you saw just a bit ago, Carrie Lake, who is very close with the former president, Donald Trump. She's running for a Senate seat in the state of Arizona. And she was out with a tweet saying one in six Americans struggle with fertility issues, and that if she's elected to the Senate, she will advocate for increased access to fertility treatment. Yeah, I also thought there was a notable response from

the Hill where there was lawmakers like Michelle Steele. She's a Republican woman from California in the House, and she spoke out opposing this ruling. She noted she had IVF to have her own child. It's also really common. Tammy Duckworth, who's a Democratic senator from Illinois, she also used IVF to have her child. She introduced legislation a while back to protect IVF access on a federal level. And I think this ruling might re-elevate that debate on Capitol Hill, as I think Democrats see it as an opportunity to sort of force more people to think about these issues and potentially force Republicans to go on record about how they feel about it. To be clear, the IVF argument is

separate from the abortion debate, but it's all tied together in a reproductive rights argument that Democrats think overwhelmingly serves them politically. That's right. And if you look at how the vice president is actually touring the country campaigning on this issue, the name of her tour is called reproductive rights. So they believe that all of this is part of the same deal. They think that IVF and the reason this Alabama court decision even came down is because they say Donald Trump appointed three conservative justices to the Supreme Court, who ultimately overturned that landmark decision of Roe versus Wade. All right, we need to take a quick break. Asma,

we're gonna let you go. Thanks for your reporting. Thank you. When we get back, it's time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back, and so is Stephen, and it is time for Can't Let It Go, the part of the show where we talk about the things from the week we can't stop thinking about, politics or otherwise. Stephen, what about you? Well, Sue, this is something that happened today, so I've had a limited sample size to think about it. But remember the robocall in New Hampshire that was AI Joe Biden telling people not to vote until November? Well, it turns out, according to NBC News, they talked to the person who created it, who's a roaming magician who was paid by a consultant who previously did ballot access work for Democratic candidate Dean Phillips. This magician, who was interviewed in New Orleans, holds world records in fork bending and straight jacket escapes, but has no fixed address, according to this NBC News article. And he was able to make this in about 30 seconds worth of audio.

And though the backstory of this magician, this is one problem he probably won't be able to make disappear. That's my camp. How did they find a magician? You'd think that he'd be better at disappearing. That's a good one. Also, is this a crime? Like, is this magician, is he about to have some criminal troubles or is it just like, oh, we found the guy who did it? Well, he says, I created the audio. I did not distribute it. I was in a situation where someone offered me some money to do something and I did it. You know, that's how most bad things usually start. The AI stuff, I gotta say, we've talked about a bunch of the podcast and I'm still terrified. None of these stories ever make me feel better about AI. Every single AI can't let it go is usually something creepy and dystopian and something we should be worried about. You also have to wonder what other tricks

he has up his sleeve. Oh, there's so many, too many puns. We got to move on. Sarah, what can't you let go of this week? Well, you know, everybody needs a little time away, right? And during the hectic campaign cycle, we all would like it sometimes. So NASA is looking for applicants to take one year, year away in a bubble, basically in Houston, simulating a Mars surface mission. And they're looking for, they say, healthy people, 30 to 55 years old. I think you have to have an advanced degree in certain smart things. But the whole appeal of this for me is this idea of just sort of checking out from the world. Yes, you're in, you know, you're still in the world,

but you're like in a bubble doing your thing for a whole year. And I would probably not pay any attention to politics, to be totally honest, if I were selected for this mission. This mission feels well-timed for this election because it feels like a time in America where a lot of Americans would like to take the next year out of the news equation and spend it somewhere peaceful and quiet. Even if it's a bubble in Texas. But would you – if you're in the bubble, do you have any access to communication or are you just like all by yourself? Are you in a bubble with – do you at least have like a bubble roommate? It's four people that they want. So like who are those other three? That's a huge question.

Is there like, is there like a solo room where you can just hang out and not talk to anyone? This is like a terrible recreation of the show, The Real World, where you just put people in a Mars bubble, four strangers in a Mars bubble for a year, see what happens. They could fund it that way. You know, I- NASA reality show. It writes itself. What about you, Sue? What can't you let go? The thing I couldn't let go of this week was a report,

I think it was in CNN, that obtained Secret Service records that showed that the Biden family's former dog commander, or at least former resident at the White House, bit Secret Service agents at least 24 times in his short-lived time at the White House. And the thing I was thinking about at this report and why I can't let it go is I realized that maybe this was exactly the wrong kind of dog to have at the White House. Because I don't know if either of you have ever had a German Shepherd or knew anyone that did, but they're really smart dogs. But they're really trained to be the protector for like a single person. So they're really good guard dogs is what they're often used for.

And then you realize that's a terrible dog for a president who is constantly being approached by men and women, usually in dark suits, moving quickly all around him. I'm kind of sympathetic for Commander. I feel like this is not necessarily maybe a mean dog, but a dog that thought it was really crushing his job, like protecting his person. Because I think he saw the president as the person he was trying to protect. And Secret Service agents seem like threats. So I just think the lesson here is that if you want to be president and you want to have a dog, that it shouldn't be a German Shepherd, that it should be like, I don't know, what's a kinder, nicer breed of dog? A terrier? Portuguese water dogs.

Like a presidential poodle. A poodle. A golden retriever. No one has ever heard of. A golden doodle. A golden doodle. There's never been a violent golden doodle attack as far as I know. But my question, too, is like, okay, 24 times,

like one, two, three, but like 24, that's a lot of bites. It's aggressive. It is aggressive. That's why it's kind of amazing that he was able to stick around as long as he could. But all right, that is it for us this week. Our executive producer is Mathoni Matori. Our editor is Erica Morrison. Our producers are Jung Yoon Han, Casey Morrell, and Kelly Wessinger. Special thanks to Christian of Calamer. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign. I'm Stephen Fowler. I also cover the presidential campaign. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.