The NPR Politics Podcast - The races we’re watching in Arizona’s primary

Episode Date: July 20, 2026

Tuesday is Primary Day in Arizona. We discuss the Republicans hoping to unseat Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November and the competitive primaries for an open Phoenix-area House seat.This episode: senior political correspondent Tamara Keith, political correspondent Ashley Lopez, and KJZZ correspondent Wayne Schutsky.This podcast was produced by Bria Suggs and edited by Rachel Baye.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

Arizona was ground zero for election denial in the aftermath of the 2020 election. Now, six years later, it's still a theme in the state's politics. Voters head to the polls tomorrow. We've got everything you need to know to understand those primaries. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. I'm Ashley Lopez.

I also cover politics. And we also have KJZZ correspondent Wayne Shutsky joining us today from Phoenix. Hello there. Hi, happy to be here. So let's start with the governor's race. Democratic governor, Katie Hobbs, is running for re-election. A handful of Republicans are competing for the chance to unseat her in November. How is that race shaping up? Well, we've got four candidates in that race, but it's really a two-man election at this point. The names you need to know are Andy Biggs and David Schweikert. Those are our two Republican congressmen who both want to be the next governor. And at this point, Biggs is really kind of running away with it, both according to polling and just kind of the eye test. Schweiger was trying to present himself as the more electable candidate. Biggs is more MAGA, more far right.

Those candidates haven't done that well in our elections in recent years. But he never really found that path and just didn't really have that kind of traction. And it's really hard to tell how that's working with voters because people have really stopped campaigning in this election season. Which is a crazy thing to say the day before voting ends. It really is. And I don't know if you guys are seeing this in other states, but they're showing up at these really local, Republican Party meetings, you know, where the hardcore people are. And I guess that makes sense because those people vote disproportionately in these primary elections. But outside of like a get out the vote effort that Biggs just had this weekend, we really haven't seen a lot of these big public events where I could go out and talk to people and see how the message is resonating. But again, Biggs has the Trump endorsement. And until proven otherwise, that really is a golden ticket and a lot of these primaries. And it's looking to bore out that way for Biggs as well. All right. So the Cook political report, they rate races.

and they rate this race as Leans Democratic. But Republicans remain hopeful that they can knock out Governor Hobbs in November. What's at stake in that race in November? What's at stake is really the laws of the state of Arizona. You know, Hobbs has been called both by Republicans and Democrats, the veto queen. You know, they say it with a different tone of voice. But she's vetoed more than 500 bills in her four years here. And that's a record by far, even compared to other Democratic governors we've had.

Republicans have controlled the legislature for decades. Democrats just haven't really been able to eat into that. So she's really offered a way to temper that control. She's vetoed a lot of the most extreme bills. I'm thinking like culture war issues, stuff that have to do with trans students and bathrooms and the sports they're allowed to participate in. And then a lot of election-related bills trying to remake our election system out here. And so you could imagine with a governor Biggs, who used to be in the legislature,

has a close relationship with a lot of these Republican lawmakers. a lot of those bills that Hobbs vetoed would be getting signed if he were in office. Yeah, I mean, this is a good example of that. Governorships have been where Democrats have been effectively able to like kind of push back against Trumpism and MAGAism. And Katie Hobbs is a really good example of that. Like it's, you know, a lot of anti-D-EI stuff. And so, you know, I think this is an important race for Democrats because no matter what happens come November, a Republican will still be in the White House.

And governorships have been a place where they've been able to really sort of, you know, beat back a lot of stuff. We've mentioned the idea of 2020 election denial and election laws being a theme in Arizona. How is that playing out in this race in particular, Wayne? Well, what we're seeing is, again, a candidate in Andy Biggs, who was, you know, implicated by the January 6th committee and somehow being involved in efforts to undermine the 2020 election. He's denied a lot of those allegations. But again, he also voted not to certify Arizona and other states' results after that election. So we've got someone who is close ally of the president, has helped propagate those false claims of that widespread voter fraud affected that election in some way. Additionally, he has said he would sign a lot of this legislation that the governor has vetoed.

And a lot of that legislation is predicated on the idea that there is something wrong with our elections, which Hobbs and other election officials in our states obviously deny. you know, there might be hiccups here and there, but they argue that by and large, our elections are fair. They're safe. People can vote and their votes are going to get counted. And a lot of it is also predicated on that idea that our votes aren't counted quick enough. And again, that has to do more with like network calls and things like. So Biggs has said, no, we can get it done faster. We can do Florida-style election laws designed to speed up election results. So that would do things like change the deadline for when voters can drop off those mail-in ballots that are really popular in Arizona that sometimes take a long- time to count if voters wait to drop them off until election day. And he said, if you elect me, I'll sign all those bills. So he's campaigning on this. Yeah. Oh, definitely. Not just him. Other Republicans campaigning kind of tangentially to that, Secretary of State, things like that, where they're saying that essentially Hobbs is the only thing stopping us from making these changes. Now, a little wrinkle in this is Republican lawmakers also sent a voter type of approval to the ballot on this that would circumvent the governor's office. And that's what they've been doing.

a lot since Hobbs took office. And so it turns out that voters could potentially approve something before Biggs takes office if he is elected. It does say something that Biggs is a frontrunner for the governorship considering if you just think 10 years ago, what he did would be disqualifying in the eyes of voters as well as, I mean, just in general, like a sitting member of Congress, not voting a certifying election based purely on conspiracy theories. Like this is just, you know, where we are in time. Like what happened in January 6th has. now gotten sort of waived off because of Trump's pardons for the rioters on January 6th. So I think it's really interesting that not only has Andy Biggs, like, been able to stay in politics, but he, you know,

he could be the party's nominee heading into a big governor's race. And he might win the primary on that argument. It has yet to be seen whether that is disqualifying in a general election. Think about Carrie Lake, the last Republican nominee for governor. And then she tried to run for Senate as well. And it essentially was disqualifying. She lost those races. Yeah, and if you look at the 2022 elections, so those were the elections that were held right after the, you know, what happened during the 2020 election, it was a liability for a lot of candidates. There were a lot of election deniers running for for statewide office and they performed slightly less well than their counterparts who didn't carry that message. And I mean, what we know about election denialism is that it has a lot of roots and tends to sway mostly Republican voters and primaries, which is what we're talking. about here. But yeah, when you move into a general election, I have never heard a swing voter say this was

their number one issue, and I hear from a lot of them every month. So it is unlikely that this is enough, you know, to persuade a lot of moderate to centrist voters who care about the economy and the war in Iran. Like, it is very unlikely that this is going to be a big issue for them. Let's move down ballot to an office that really does have direct influence over election administration, the Secretary of State. There's an incumbent Democrat, but a primary on the Republican side. Wayne, tell us about that race. Yeah, so our Secretary of State's race, that's, you know, obviously our top election official in the state. It's a race between Gina Swaboda, who is a former election official. She actually worked under Hobbs and another Republican Secretary of State in her professional career and later went on to become the Arizona Republican Party chairperson.

She is running against Alexander Colleton. He is a state lawmaker who has been the one who sponsored a lot of these bills we're talking about to change the way we vote. And previously, as an election attorney, he actually brought a lot of those lawsuits challenging the 2020 election results in Arizona. So this is, again, it's kind of an argument between who's electable and who is more aligned with the president. Swaboda has been endorsed by the president in the past to run for that chair position in our state party. But she's kind of moved away from that as she's running for Secretary of State. She said she disagrees with some of the things the federal government is doing, talking about trying to get the state's voter rolls, that kind of thing. And she thinks that violates the idea that states have control of elections, whereas Colliden is firmly aligned with the president, with the MAGA wing. He's in the local freedom caucus that we have here, you know, very much believes that the past elections were stolen and that we need fundamental changes to the way we vote and how we run elections to stop that.

Yeah, Secretary of States, those are interesting positions because they're not lawmakers. They are bound by statute. There's only so much they can really do and change and how elections are run. But we do know that President Trump has absolutely no qualms about calling in to pressure governors and secretaries of state to make changes. So the question is like if you put someone who is maybe more open to conspiratorial thinking or pressure from the White House, how they would behave. And so these are going to be interesting positions to watch. You know, like I mentioned, they don't always win their races. They tend to underperform, especially in general elections. But it is an open question. And if you have a mix of a few folks in these battleground states where there are a lot of close elections where all elections tend to be pretty close there.

And there's pressure from the White House, how they will behave. A lot of that depends who's in that seat. And Wayne, there is also a race for Attorney General. Again, a Democratic incumbent. But tell us about the Republicans running in that primary. Again, we have 20-20 connections. The Senate president, Warren Peterson, seems to be the frontrunner in that race. And he was actually the one who oversaw that kind of mess of an audit we had post the 2020 election here in Arizona that everyone probably remembers.

And he most recently actually turned over records from that in response to a DOJ subpoena that has been kind of part of the president's attempts to rehash his 2020 loss. He's running against Rodney Glassman, who's another Republican, who's actually a former Democrat, has run for a lot of offices out here. But he also told me that he believes that election was stolen and that, you know, he claims that, you know, our former attorney general and others didn't do it. enough to investigate those claims, even though we have records showing that they kind of looked in to the various conspiracies and found that there really wasn't any there there. Yeah. And this all comes as President Trump is continuing to put pressure on Congress to pass the Save America Act, which would require voter ID and proof of citizenship to register to vote. I mean, this is a moment where, you know, Ashley, you and I talking to voters, they're like,

uh, why are we talking about this still? Yeah. Like really? Why? And yet this is such a big focus of the White House and clearly some of these candidates in Arizona. I mean, just because Democrats haven't messaged this a lot, mostly because they're not hearing this is as important as, let's say, affordability for voters, doesn't mean it's not important, right? There's a reason that the administration is also, you know, in some cases that sending letters to election officials outright threatening election officials with legal action. And this is not something that is going to go away just because it's not a campaign issue. This is something that if you are moving into these positions where you have some say over how elections are run, it is going to be important. And it's only going to get more important if you're in a state with a close election.

So it does matter even though, yes, it's like not as front of mind for voters right now as, you know, Iran or the economy, gas prices, stuff like that. All right. Well, we need to take a quick break. And we have more on Arizona's primaries after that. And we're back, and I want to talk about Congress now. There are only 18 House races nationwide that the Cook Political Report has rated as toss-ups this year. And Arizona has two of them. So, Wayne, let's start with the open seat, Arizona's first congressional district. Yeah, we got lucky. We have two of them. But yeah, in CD1, we've got David Schweikert, who we mentioned is running for governor. He has successfully fended off Democratic challengers for years now, cycle after cycle, where, Democrats feel like this is a pickup opportunity. It is likely the most competitive seat in the state. And now we have two Democrats who are fighting for the chance to fill in that seat. In Ami Shah, he's a former state lawmaker. And then former broadcaster Marlene Galan Woods,

who was actually a Republican. She was married to Grant Woods, one of our former attorneys general, who was actually one of the most prominent anti-Trump Republicans out here back in the 2016 era. And so they're both kind of running in this district that is largely moderate, slightly Republican, but a lot of Democrats, a lot of independents, both arguing that they're the most electable candidate, the one who can finally take the seat away from Republicans. So I have to ask, you say that they're both campaigning as the most electable. We've covered a lot on this podcast, the sort of battle between progressive Democrats and more establishment or mainstream or whatever you want to call it, more moderate Democrats. This is not one of those

races, this is not one of those fights? No, this is not the place where a progressive would be seen to have a good shot. And I'm saying that because if anyone's heard of Scottsdale, Arizona, that makes up a large portion of this district. This is a very affluent district. A lot of, we're thinking like C-suite people live here, executives, things like that. So they're very worried about the economy, economic issues. I'm thinking about when I was growing up and my friend's dads would say they're fiscal conservatives and social moderates. That's this district. And so, yeah, both candidates are running kind of right down the middle. I will say Shaw supports

like Medicare for All, so they do have some policies that might veer into the progressive arena. But he was also known during his time in the legislature as someone who would cross the aisle, who would work with Republicans. And then obviously Marlene Golan Woods is a former Republican herself. So she's really running as someone who was left behind by the party versus someone who's this progressive Democrat. I mean, this isn't terribly surprising, right? There's a reason why you're seeing a lot of this intra-party fighting, like, you know, the Democratic Socialist of America versus your sort of regular liberal Democrats in blue states. It's because those are non-competitive seats. And there are so few competitive seats this round, even compared to the last cycle, mostly because of redistricting, that Democrats are not going to risk putting someone who may not be well positioned for a general election when there is such a tough fight ahead

of them and they only have so few seats where they have a fighting chance. So it is not terribly surprising that even if like one candidate has like some pretty progressive policies like universal health care, they're not going to present themselves as way. Like they don't want to stylize themselves for a general election audience in a way that could potentially put that seat at risk. So it's not terribly surprising, but it is sort of interesting. And interesting is a way to describe what's happening on the Republican side too. So Wayne, fill us in. Yeah, we've got former NFL kicker Jay Feeley. Some folks out here in Arizona might remember him from his time kicking for the Cardinals. He also went on to have a television career in football. So pretty decent name ID, even though, you know, he was a

kicker, not the most high profile position on the field. And he also has the Trump endorsement, which we've talked about multiple times, is kind of that golden ticket in these races. Something interesting about Feeley, though, is he doesn't actually live in the district. He hopped over from a safe Republican district in the East Valley where he lives with his family at the behest of Donald Trump and Turning Point USA, who had a different candidate they prefer in that district. Much to the chagrin of his opponent, Joseph Chaplick. And Chaplick is a former state lawmaker who is very aligned kind of with the MAGA, far right wing of the party, very close Trump ally, but does not have that name ID, did not win that endorsement from the president. And so he's now trying to run by saying

Phileys, this carpetbagger who's jumping into the race. Is it working? It's hard to say because, again, all these people are not campaigning. They are just going to these local Republican Party meetings. And surprise, surprise, the meetings I've gone to when Chaplick shows up, the people like Chaplick and when Feely shows up the people who show up for him like Feely. So it's really difficult to gauge whether that kind of grassroots campaign Chaplick is running is having any inroads on that Trump endorsement. Let's turn to congressional district six, where Democrats are hoping to unseat Republican Congressman Juan Siscomani in November. What should we know about that district? So that district, that's down in southern Arizona, parts of Tucson, and a lot of rural communities. communities as well. And I would say the biggest difference there besides the fact that there's no competitive primary, you know, both sides have already chosen their candidates, is that unlike CD1 where we talked about, it's affluent, it's going to be those economic issues, you know, tariffs. How is my retirement doing? How is my stock portfolio doing? Down in CD6, I think the big, beautiful bill is going to be a big issue for incumbent Republican Juan Siscomani to defend because we actually have rural hospitals in that district who might have to shut down or cut services because of those Medicaid cuts.

has seen some of the steepest, if not the steepest food assistant snap cuts since that went into effect. And so you got a lot of people in that district who rely on those programs. And so, you know, you see your local hospital shut down. That might infect how you vote. I guess that's a question that I have. Are there issues that are really driving these campaigns? Or is it just like, are you endorsed by Trump? Like, are there issues in these primaries? I'd say in the primaries, it really is this more political question of, are you endorsed by Trump? Because they've seen so much evidence that the Trump endorsement is the golden ticket, as I mentioned. And so they're really just parroting the president's policy positions. You know, I think one thing Chaplick has pointed out is that in the past, Feeley has presented himself as much more of a moderate. There's some like social media posts and things like that. But now that he's seeking the president's support, he's backing the president 100%. And so once we hit the general, I think then we're going to have those policies. discussions that you want to see. But right now, it's really just about on one side, who has the president's support and on the other side, who thinks they can beat the president's chosen candidate.

And it's not just that Trump's endorsement is an asset. It's Trump's ire is a liability. I mean, just ask those lawmakers in Indiana, right? So Republicans are in a bind. They have to really, during a primary, strap themselves to someone who is very unpopular. The president overall is approval is very low. But they can't seemingly move away from him. him because he is the leader of the party and he sets the tone for the party and what he cares about is what the party cares about, especially in primaries, which these are the ideologues, these are the Trumpies. This is like a really weird position to be in because you're in a purple state. You know, you are going to have to either do a really deaf job at pivoting or you're going to have to eat it or you're just going to have to be like, look, I hope I can convince some of the centrist in the state or some of the less politically ideological folks in the state to vote for me. take the cost. It's a really tough position to be in. But as long as Trump is in the party, I think like we're going to have this circular conversation all the time, which is like, yeah, things are not looking good for the party because, you know, as you mentioned, the big, beautiful bill is a liability for Republicans. It has been unpopular. And yeah, it's going to be a tough one to shift out of. But it sounds like Republicans in some parts of the country don't have a choice even when they probably should be running more like moderates. Well, this is a singular president. Yeah.

This is a president who is always at the center of attention, whether you want him to be or not. And yeah, I was just talking to a former congressman, a Republican who said, like, his advice to any Republicans running right now is put as much space between yourself and Donald Trump as possible because midterm elections are notoriously rough on the president's party. Wayne, before we go, I do want to ask you, you mentioned Turning Point USA was a factor in one of these races. That is Charlie Kirk's group that has been very high profile nationally in elections, particularly in 2024, but in other years as well. Now with Kirk not there, what role are they playing in Arizona, which is where the headquarters is for Turning Point USA? Yeah, their headquarters is actually just about 15 minutes away from here where I'm right now. Their role is kind of like a Trump-a-Light, you know, like we talked about the president's endorsement being super important.

Well, Turning Point is also playing that role out here. These candidates were talking about Andy Biggs, Jay Feely, Alexander Collidan in the Secretary of State's race. All were Turning Point hand-picked candidates. So they've shown a deft ability to get the president on board with the candidates that they like, even in races like I'm talking about CD1, where Chaplick has been. close ally of the president. And so they are playing kind of that mini kingmaker role. Now, the question is, does that translate to the general? They continually have shown that they can win primary elections out here in Arizona, but they have struggled in the general. I mean,

they have not won a statewide race with any of their chosen candidates. The most high profile race they won was a county recorder position. And so this is kind of a referendum on where they're at, because they are very powerful here, but locally we are seeing some splits. We're seeing some state lawmakers now kind of who traditionally just beg for that endorsement, these Republicans, now kind of shying away from turning point. And I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that Charlie Kirk is not there anymore and there hasn't been anyone to kind of fill that void and bring together all these differing personalities behind the president, behind the president's agenda, and have them all kind of move towards the same goal. Yeah. He really did play that role of bringing together disparate

wings of the MAGA coalition, and that role has not been filled by anyone since. Turning Point also was growing the MAGA base. One of the big projects that Charlie Cook undertook was bringing in younger people into the Republican base. And we've seen in polling that that hasn't stuck. A lot of those young people are no longer in support of the president or are souring on the Republican Party writ large. So, you know, the lasting effect of what Turning Point USA has done is an open question. All right. Well, we're going to leave it there for today. Thank you for joining us with your reporting, Wayne. Yeah, happy to be here. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. And I'm Ashley Lopez. I also cover politics.

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.