The NPR Politics Podcast - These swing voters are sour on Trump, the economy and Iran war

Episode Date: June 18, 2026

NPR reporters observed focus groups of 13 Wisconsin voters who backed former President Biden in 2020 and President Trump in 2024. We discuss what they say about President Trump, the economy, and the potential deal to end the Iran war. This episode: voting correspondent Miles Parks, political correspondent Ashley Lopez, and senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson.This podcast was produced by Bria Suggs and edited by Rachel Baye.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

Hey there, it's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Miles Parks. And this is Corey, a swing voter from Wisconsin talking about Iran. We essentially got nothing out of it. It's hurt our economy and increased expenses for everyday American and it accomplished the square root of nothing. A new poll out today finds most voters are not happy with President Trump right now. We're going to hear from some of those voters as part of our monthly swing voter check-in. I'm here with political correspondence Ashley Lopez and Mara Lai. Eliasin. Hi, guys. Hey. Hi there. So, Ashley, the voters we're going to hear from today are voters who voted for Joe Biden in 2020, Donald Trump in 2024. What else can you tell us about these people? Yeah. Besides the fact that they are all from Wisconsin, it's 13 voters that we talked to. Two people identified as Democrats. There was one Republican and 10 independents. And these focus groups, by the way, were conducted by messaging and market research firms and Gage and Sago, they partner with us as part of the swing voter project. And compared to last month, let's say, like, this was a little less conservative of a group because it was like, you know, we had a couple of Democrats and mostly independent voters, which are really interesting group to hear from. Well, also, just to point out, Wisconsin is a bluer battleground state. But also just to set the stage, and we'd give this disclaimer every time, this is not a poll.

It's a focus group. So it's not statistically significant. But it does tell us the why. Would the polls tell us how people feel about certain issues, but focus groups, us delve a little deeper into the Y. Well, and today's so interesting, too, because we do have a new poll from MPR, PBS News, and Marist that adds a little bit color to all the things we're going to be talking about today. But the big headline number is that these are the worst approval numbers that we have seen for President Trump in either term at this point. And that is driven by a 33% approval rating

specifically on how he handles the economy, which feels really striking considering this is somebody who campaigned on the idea of bringing back economic prosperity. And that kind of implied that inflation and the economy were going to be huge priorities for him. How did these voters talk about those issues? I mean, it's the thing they're most upset about. And I think it's trickling down into their overall perception of how Trump is doing. Let's hear from a voter. By the way, we're only going to be referring to them by their first name.

That's like the condition in which they participated in these focus groups. So Josh Kay, I think, is a pretty good representation of how a lot of these. voters felt. It seems to me like pick your issue and it's and things are not going well for him. I mean, we got this stupid war in Iran and it turns out that we actually aren't getting anything out of it. I mean, all we got was $4 gas. I mean, what about real world impacts in terms of the economy on? I understand obviously gas impacts people. But one of the things that struck me also in the poll that was out today is that roughly half of Americans say they're not going to take a vacation. this summer and a lot of them cite cost for a reason. Did you guys hear about any of the like

specific impacts, I guess, of some of these economic concerns? Absolutely. And what's interesting about this is it's, yeah, it's not just gas prices. These are middle class people. These are people who are not poor. They're broke. And our moderator, Rich Tao, who you'll hear in this next bit, asked our focus group members what specifically they've had to give up. Josh, what have you had to give up? Streaming subscriptions. Corey? Eating out. for me and my family not as much for cooking at home a lot more often. Robin? I had to raise all my deductibles on everything, my car insurance, my health insurance,

to lower my premiums. Okay. And Jalen? Yeah, I've given up all my extracurricular hobbies. And then a lot of my subscriptions I've cut out along with my daily coffee. Maya, what have you had to give up? I have an addiction to getting my hair done. You have to give up getting your hair done? Yes.

Wendy, what about you and you're muted? vacations and other luxury purchases. Yeah. I mean, it's striking that. I mean, vacations probably came up the most, and that makes sense. It's a big ticket item. Like, that would be the first thing to cut if, like, things are really dire. But, yeah, I mean, having to cut recreational activities, like, that's the kind of thing that will really, like, frustrate people.

I was going to say that. It's not like these are basically all the things that bring people joy are the things that we're talking about cutting here. Of course people are feeling frustrated. I mean, vacations, too. These are the things that take the edge off. And if you're frustrated with the economy, if you're frustrated with a war that you thought, you know, the country wasn't going to get into, you know, it makes a ton of sense that a lot of these independent voters. And I think that's important to say here, I mean, what the poll is reflecting is what we've been seeing for a while now, which is that for the most part, Trump's base is holding steady with him. But it's these independent voters that have been wildly swinging away from him. Yeah. And also, it shows you that it's not just gas prices. This is inflation that is probably going to take a lot longer to come down than just the prices. the pump. And the election is right around the corner. Well, and it kind of gets at this bigger thing.

Vacations are a great example of that. They're a big ticket item, but I do feel like they fit into the broader kind of idea of middle class life or feeling like you are living the life that you hoped you would live. What else other than the economy, I guess, do these people have to say about President Trump's job performance? What struck me is just how bitter they were about him and how much populism is really what our politics is right now. They're cynical about politics. They're resentful against the establishment and politicians and rich people and they now see Trump as a rich person. So I think voters are in a very sour mood and populism is on the left and the right. Trump used to be a beneficiary of that, but now he's seen as part of the problem.

Yeah, I mean, these are voters who are not squarely left or right. I mean, a lot of them kind of switch between the two. I mean, some of them, yes, identify as Democrats, others as Republicans, but like the one Republican in this group, Jalen, I mean, she had a lot of populist sentiments. Like she does not sound like straight up like an old-timey conservative would. Well, so this focus group this week was being convened right as news was coming out about a big news item that could impact the economy that's going to impact the economy, whether the Iran war is coming to a close. In previous focus groups, we've heard a lot of frustration from these type of swing voters about the Iran war. I have to imagine that these voters were probably feeling pretty good about the fact that Iran War was coming to a close because of that or what was what was the vibe? Well, it was interesting to me that there wasn't a huge sigh of relief and some kind of gratitude toward President Trump for ending it. These are people who don't think it was worth it. They were asked that question. Now that the ceasefire seems to be being extended, was it worth it? No. They said all we got was $4 gas. They seemed to connect the war in Iran with higher prices. At one point, Tammy said that the war to her was just the American people having to suffer through the tantrums of two countries playing tug of war.

She said, I just don't think it was fair to the American people. So the war is very unpopular. And for many reasons, but the most basic reason is that President Trump campaigned against foreign wars. And our voters brought that up several times. This is why they voted for him because they thought he wasn't going to do this. Yeah, that comes up pretty much in every panel, which is like I thought we weren't getting into any more foreign wars. You know, and Mara has actually brought this up before. Like, you have to remember, Trump didn't do anything to pitch this war to voters. And I talked to Rich Tao. He's the president. president engages and he moderated these focus groups. He said, you know, I've been talking to voters for months about this. They didn't like it at the beginning. They didn't like it in the middle. And that, yeah, at the end, they don't like it either, even when it looks like things are going to wrap up. And a part of that is because people don't think like this is ending well. One of these voters, Sam, he said that he actually thinks like the deal that Obama had years ago was much better. The straighter removes was open before and now during the war it was closed for a short time.

And then also in the deal, it's speculated that there won't be any type of regulation of the nuclear facilities or any kind of inspection, which with the previous deal with President Obama, there had to be inspections routinely to receive the money that was guaranteed. So what Sam is talking about is the lack of detail in the memorandum of understanding about exactly what is going to happen in those 60 days or after those 60 days. days. Will there be inspections required? The memorandum of understanding doesn't say anything about them. That's what Sam is talking about. But these voters clearly think the deal does not make the war in Iran worth it. That's a pretty informed voter. I'll say that. Pretty informed voter, but also it shows you how hard it's going to be for Trump to sell this deal as a great deal. There's been a chorus of foreign policy experts, and now ordinary voters seem to understand the same thing. And it seems to, it's not just, oh, if gas prices go down by 50 cents or 60 cents that everyone's just going to be happy, go lucky, it seems like.

Yeah, and also, that's not easy to achieve. I mean, some experts have said it'll take a while to get back to $3 gas. And if that's the metric that people are using of whether the economy's working for them, that's one thing. But also from my perception of like what I've been hearing from voters is that economic anxieties are deeper than $3 gas. I mean, we just heard all the things that people have been having a cut. Like digging yourself out of a financial whole takes a lot of time and gas will help. But I wonder how optimistic people will feel about an economy if just one small thing changes. All right.

Let's take a quick break and more on this focus group in just a moment. And we're back. So this summer is the summer of America 250, the nation's 250th birthday. We just had this big spectacle of a UFC fight on the White House lawn to celebrate that as well as President Trump's birthday. I know that these swing voters were asked about all of this. Mara, what did they say? Well, they were asked specifically if they had a birthday message for the president. And here's what some of them said.

Happy birthday, Mr. President. What are you doing to ensure that when we get to the age that you are, that we're going to have, the America that we grew up learning about? I would have said I would have bought you a cake, but I can't afford one. But happy birthday. It must have really feel good to be able to do whatever you want on your birthday. America doesn't have that luxury, but he does. Yeah, I mean, there's some pretty frustrated populist sentiment there. I think this was a pretty striking part of this conversation because we had been hearing people talking.

about, you know, how frustrated they are with the economy. By the way, I think compared to a lot of other focus groups that we've had, this is like 12 blame President Trump for higher prices right now, which hasn't been consistent throughout. A lot of people still blamed President Biden and his administration. But we're at at least these Wisconsin voters, which, by the way, not scientific, but this group of people largely blames, almost except for one, blames Trump for the situation that they're in now. So to see the UFC fight and all the money being spent to celebrate. the country, but also Trump himself personally because he has conflated the two. This was a very striking part of the conversation. It does seem a little odd to me that these are people who voted for President Trump and they seem, I don't know if it's surprised. But I mean, this is somebody, everyone knew he was very wealthy. He likes big spectacles. I don't know. There are sometimes in these focus groups, we hear things and I'm kind of like, is this, I don't know if I fully understand the frustration or the surprise considering it doesn't seem that surprising to me. Well, you do this day in and day half. And these are swing voters. That means that they voted for Biden. They were open minded and they thought that maybe Trump would do better on the economy. I don't think that they think about every little aspect of Donald Trump's personality when they do this. These are not hardcore Trump supporters. These are swing voters. And also I feel like things would be different if they felt more economically secure. You're not so worried about what someone else is up to, which by the way, Trump has enripped. himself a lot while in office that, you know, even if you're a sort of moderate consumer of news,

you will see how much richer Trump has gotten since he's been in office, or at least his family has. And so, you know, if you are economically less anxious, you're not as concerned with the monetary situation of the people around you. But the reason we're hearing a lot of populism is because people are stressed. People are really pessimistic about the economy, their financial future. And so this is like a like a powder keg for this kind of situation. Well, in previous focus groups, that economic anxiety, has really come up when it comes to artificial intelligence. Did that come up again here with these voters in Wisconsin? Yes, it did. And we've been focusing on artificial intelligence. It's a big issue. It's a bipartisan issue.

Data centers are very unpopular. And we did ask voters about this. And we had a very interesting personal story from Robin. Guess what? I worked for a data center. Four years. Lead director, recruiter. And recruiting came in. AI came home and took my job. So yeah, absolutely. I'm worried. I've seen it. My entire team got laid off. They felt that AI could do the job for, you know, a lot quicker for a lot less money. That brings it home pretty much. She worked for a data center and AI replaced her and took her job. I mean, people are very, very worried about the job-killing aspects of AI. Yeah, and then the cost of data centers has come up. Pretty much every single time we've talked about this with voters. They're concerned that their energy bills are going to go up.

Water consumption from these data centers is going to be an issue for them personally. It's one of the things we hear the most often. And then, of course, there's the layoffs. That is an economic pressure down the road. So a lot of people are feeling pressure right now. And they feel like there's this existential pressure coming from the other direction. So, I mean, yeah, I mean, AI is one of those issues where people have pretty strong feelings about it. And I just, I don't think it's like going to go away.

Yeah. And then you layer on top of that, the sort of populist anger of like seeing Elon Musk become the world's first trillionaire, right, at the same week. Yeah. We had one voter say like he is observing how. much political power there is behind this push to get AI out there. One other trend that we've been talking about on the pod a lot the last couple weeks is political scandal with everything that the Democratic candidate for Senate in Maine, Grand Platner, that has come out, it feels like every week the last couple weeks. And also Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee in Texas, who has dealt with his own personal scandals for the last few years. How are these voters talking about political scandal?

I mean, because there's pessimism writ large about America would say, like I wasn't surprised to hear that there's still pessimism about candidates and about politicians. I mean, across the board when asked, like, do you think like most politicians have skeletons in their closet? Everyone raised their hand pretty much. I think there were maybe a few people who didn't. But across the board, this is a shared sentiment. So a lot of the sentiment was like, we're not totally shocked when scandal comes out. And then one person that we heard from, his name is Kenny, he said that he's actually less interested in the sort of the personal lives and personal scandals of politicians. And he says like he's primarily focused on policy. It's important that we understand what they're trying to do and not just their personality or, you know, opinions. You know what I mean? Like our opinion shouldn't matter so much of them more as focusing on what they're really trying to do, you know, and what they can get done. Yeah, and when it comes to Graham Platner, one of the focus group members had an interesting take on that situation in particular because he feels like there's a lot of younger people running now. And I think Grant Platner is considered one of the some of the younger people running.

And he said, look, I think like a lot of people are going to have some baggage, particularly digital scandals. It isn't necessarily true for me, but I think it's true for a lot of people my age that everybody has done and said. things online or just done and said things in general that they grew out of or regret or didn't mean or whatever the case may be. And in Graham Platner's case, he took responsibility for the things that he's done. And there's absolutely no indication that he continues to hold those beliefs. So if voters are hearing a message that they like and from a person they like, I think we're learning that there's actually quite a bit of wiggle room that Canada. have to, you know, say they're sorry, say they're changed, you know, give a redemption arc of

some kind, and voters are going to stick with them for the most part. And I see this really is that partisanship is so strong that people are willing to forgive scandals with the candidate of their own party and they'll hold the other guy to a higher standard. And that's where we're at now. Are there any other takeaways, I guess, from this focus group? I know early in the year, as we've been doing these, it's been like, we don't really know how this is going to impact midterms. yet it's too soon to say it's June. So I'm going to start asking in terms of how you guys think about what you heard and how that could play on the midterms. This feels like a very anti-incumbent electorate. And I think the question for me is how strong that sentiment will be and will it be

enough to overcome all the structural advantages that in this case, the incumbent party Republicans, have erected like tremendous fundraising advantage, partisan, gerrymandering. But I do think this is a very, very anti-incumbent electorate. Yeah. And I mean, we've heard this time and time again just because there's an anti-incumbent sentiment, it hasn't directly like relayed into support for Democrats. Like there is still a lot of ambivalence about the party among these kinds of voters. I mean, these are swing voters, independent voters mostly. The brand isn't particularly strong. And a lot of these voters say they are going to make sort of a game time decision.

We're not hearing like I'm definitely voting for Democrats or I'm definitely voting against Republicans yet. I think like even though it's June and it feels very close to us who observe elections, like a midterm election is upon us, a lot of these voters are still sort of waiting and seeing and hoping to be convinced. All right. Well, we can leave it there for today.

I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. And I'm Mara Liason, senior national political correspondent. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast. Oh, and happy birthday miles. Ha, thank you. Oh, happy birthday miles.