The NPR Politics Podcast - These swing voters don’t like or understand the reason for the war in Iran

Episode Date: March 12, 2026

NPR reporters observed focus groups of 12 swing voters from Michigan. We discuss their thoughts on the war in Iran and what they wish President Trump would focus on.This episode: voting correspondent Miles Parks, political correspondent Ashley Lopez, and senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson.This podcast was produced by Casey Morell and Bria Suggs, and edited by Rachel Baye.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.To manage podcast ad preferences, review the links below:See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey there, it is the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Ashley Lopez at cover politics. And I'm Mara Liason, senior national political correspondent. And ahead of this year's midterm elections, we've been checking in monthly with swing voters, people who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and went for Donald Trump in 2024. Today on the show, we head to Michigan. And actually, before we get into what we heard from this group of voters, I do want to get into why we're doing this on a regular basis. what we're hoping to glean from it because this small group of voters, 12 voters this time around, not statistically significant, right? But what, I guess, what are you hoping to kind of glean from something like this?

Well, mostly just how folks are thinking about what's happening in the country. I mean, you can't draw any broad conclusions. But you can hear people sort of talk out how they're feeling, why they feel that way, what they're frustrated about, especially with open-ended questions. If you just ask someone, like, what are you most worried about? You can draw a lot from that question. And so that's part of the reason, you know, I particularly like hearing from voters and focus groups. What about you, Mara?

Yeah, I think that focus groups are often described as the why, not the what. We know from polls, national polls, that the majority of Americans are not supportive of the war in Iran. We know that. But here we get to find out why. They explain their feelings and it's so much richer than just the top lines of a telephone poll. Well, let's get into what they talked about because I have to imagine that Iran was top of mind for a lot of these voters. Tell me more. I mean, overwhelmingly when the moderator who was Rich Tao from Engages, that's a market research firm that we partner with as well as Sago on this project, he always asked people at the top, like, what is most concerning you right now? And overwhelmingly, for maybe the exception of one or two people out of the 12 that were in these two focus groups, they said the war, the fact that America is getting in another war.

People said different versions of it, but that came up pretty much every time. You know, again, this isn't statistically significant, but out of the 12 people, nine said that they disapprove. So just a picture of the voters who participated here. Out of the 12, most of them described themselves as independence. There were two that described themselves as Democratic or leaning Democratic and two that described themselves as Republicans. And by the way, the participants who agreed to be part of these focus groups participated on the condition that they would be identified by their first names and last initials only. So we'll mostly be using first names here. Gina was one of the Republican voters that we heard from.

And, you know, I think out of most of the voters that we heard from, she is a little more sympathetic to the president, but, you know, she has some very serious concerns about the war and around. I'm afraid that it's going to turn into something that's larger than what it is right now. So when, like, we went to Iraq and it just went on and on and on. And I'm afraid that it will turn into something like that. What really impressed me was how much these voters sounded like Trump in 2016. I kind of call this the Marjorie Taylor Green focus group because they believed him. And when he said he didn't want to get involved in foreign wars or forever wars, he wanted to spend all that money here at home to help Americans. He didn't want to fight other people's wars.

That's what you hear from these voters. This is Lindsay. And she's talking about why she's not for the war in Iran. the enormous cost of war in terms of what it does to our economy, what it does to the world economy, when we have enormous need within our own societies in Michigan, there are families, there are children, there are enormous levels of poverty, and that needs out. We need to help our own citizens first before we go to Iran, Iraq, I don't know, anywhere else to fight their wars for them. And that, to me, help our own citizens first. That's America first. That's Donald Trump. To her, Iran, Iraq, it's all melded together into one unnecessary, expensive foreign war that she thought Trump was against. Remember, every single one of these people voted for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024.

And those are like two buckets. I would say a third one of the complaints we heard from voters is that this is so much money that they feel like should have been spent specifically on addressing affordability. And rising gas prices became one big concern. We actually heard this from Brandon, who was an independent voter. I feel like we're stretched too thin, and the cost of gas has gone 20 cents in my neighborhood. So I feel like we always have money for bombs, but no money for infrastructure. Yeah, I remember in previous focus groups, there were voters who talked about the fact that they loved the fact that gas prices were down, right? And they were, and now they're up. And Donald Trump promised to bring them down.

He did bring them down. And now this is a complete reversal. Assuming it lasts. It could if the war ends tomorrow, I think the political cost will be much less to Republicans. But clearly voters pay attention to those big numbers on the pump when they drive by the gas station. Well, and how they perceive whether this is worth it comes back to this question of how President Trump has sold this to the American people. on why the U.S. is at war with Iran. These voters give you all a sense of whether they had a clear understanding of why this

war is going on. I mean, not really. And that is not their fault. The administration has given the American people, what is it like at least 10 different rationales for going into Iran? And voters say that they're confused, too. They really don't understand why exactly this is happening. It sort of depends on the voters.

Some voters understand, I mean, especially voters of sort of like in their 40s, like people who are definitely around for the Iraq war and the sort of the war on terror and all that. They're like, you know, this is an old time sort of adversary of ours. I can sort of understand why we would be concerned about Iran getting a nuclear weapon. But, you know, a lot of, there were also some voters who were like, I think our relationship with Israel has something to do with this. as well, and that makes me uncomfortable. But it really runs the gammon, and I don't think that is their fault. I think there's just a lot of reasons that have been given. And so having one discrete rationale is hard to find, you know, among these voters. Let's listen to two voters who are trying to describe what was the reason for going to war. They're pretty confused, but here's Jasmine. I feel like he has an underlining motive. So that's pretty much why I don't

agree with it. I know his son brought like a lot of oil stock. So I just feel like there was a hidden agenda. A hidden agenda. Trump is enriching himself. They don't trust him. Here's another voter, Susan, about why she thinks we're at war in Iran. I just, I don't think it's necessary for them to be fighting somebody else's war, to be fighting the war for Israel. It's just not necessary for America to intervene always and fight Israel's wars for them. That's really interesting to hear because I do feel like Israel is starting to bubble up as a real topic ahead of this year's midterm elections. Did these voters have anything else to say about this relationship?

Yeah, so opinions on Israel are pretty mixed. I would say they kind of go into three buckets. There are like a third of the voters here were kind of indifferent or neutral on this. I don't feel like they know enough either way to have a firm opinion on America. America's relationship with Israel. There were some voters who are in support of this relationship. They say this is a long-term ally. We are not in a position right now to be not supporting our allies, especially what they see as a safe harbor for the Jewish people post-World War II. And then there are these other voters who are particularly angry. And these are the folks who are not

happy with the relationship with Israel. Susan was one of them. Another thing she said is, I just don't understand how this is in America's interest. And she leans Democratic. She sees herself as more as a Democratic voter. And this has become like a sentiment in the Democratic base for a little while now, which is that we have like real material problems in this country and we need to be spending that money here. And this administration and the Biden administration to a large degree, too, spent a lot of money on supporting Israel. But yeah, I really ran the gamut. You know, one of the interesting comments was I feel like we always have money for bombs but no money for infrastructure. That really echoes. a Trump complaint. The other thing that was interesting to me about people, because they weren't given a clear reason for going, they kind of figured out their own reasons. Like Jasmine, who thought maybe it's because Trump's son has oil stock, or Susan, who thinks maybe we're doing this for Israel. And there was someone else, Stephanie, who was an independent, who said, how much do we have to

do to hide these Epstein files? I feel like the president is doing everything he can to not admit the fact that his name is in there, and this is what he did. So they feel that it's a deflection from Epstein. I mean, when you don't get a clear idea from the government, you make up your own reasons or you hear them on social media. Yeah, it feels like it goes back to this broader sense that these are voters who don't feel like they trust President Trump when he tells them something. Or they're not even clear what he's telling them because he's given them so many reasons. The president has not tried to build public support for a war before starting it. Most presidents at least try. They give a lot of speeches. They have events. They lobby Congress. They try to develop. public support. And he is also the only president who has started a war and not gotten the rally around the flag effect. In other words, usually at the beginning of a military operation,

American voters give the president the benefit of the doubt and support him. They might sour on the war later, but that didn't happen this time. Okay, well, we've got to take a quick break and more on all of this in just a moment. And we're back. And I want to stick with how the president has messaged about this war because he's made a number of comments in recent days suggesting that this war would be over very soon and also that gas prices would go down very quickly. Did these voters in these focus groups? Did you get a sense on whether they believe him? I think that overall there was a big level of cynicism towards the president, and it's not just the president. I think people have been cynical about government officials for a very long time.

Trump ran on that cynicism. He benefited by it. And in some ways now it is being turned back on him, especially because, what he's doing is so 180 degrees different than what he promised. It's not just a kind of a vague flip-flop. It's just a complete reversal. You know, no foreign wars. We don't go and fight other people's wars, i.e. Israel's. He has said gas prices would go down. Now they're going up. So I think there is a lot of cynicism. Yeah, I heard one voter, her name of Stephanie Jay. There were two Stephanies of this group, which can be confusing. But she said, I feel like he always inflates his

victories and makes it seem like everything we're doing is the best and the greatest. And he doesn't really mention any negatives or downfalls. She says, I cannot trust fully what he says. And I think this came around the conversation around gas prices. And also, she says she can't believe what the president says about how long this war is going to take, what the United States commitment is going to be, what the progress of it is. I mean, all around, a lot of these voters said that they just cannot fully trust what the president is saying about any of this. Well, and so you mentioned earlier that a lot of these voters kind of want the president to be focused more on domestic issues. Did they get into that anymore on not just what they're frustrated with, but what they're actually

hoping for? Yeah. I mean, they want, it's the sort of things that really drove the conversation during the election. They want to see housing costs come down. They said they want to see child care costs come down. Grocery prices came up a lot. And they mentioned that the president has only made that worse and they blame tariffs for that. there are a lot of places where they say they would be really happy if this were addressed. I mean, gas prices

are part of that too. Folks when asked, like, what are you really happy about? Two things come up with these swing voters. And again, these are people who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and then Trump in 2024. So these are pretty politically movable or persuadable people. They said gas prices. This is the thing that matters to me, as well as closing the border as another one. So I think they want to be happy with the president. But to them, being happy with the president would entail him to to be very focused on the economy, which is what they thought they were getting. Right, which has been a problem for him all along. But politically, remember, it's very early.

If this war ends, gas prices come down. The political peril to the Republicans gets diminished. But if it continues, I think it's a real problem. And I think that's also why you've heard Trump give these declaring victory speeches, as if he's looking for an off-ramp. Everything's great. We've solved our problem. Now we're going to pull out.

We'll see if he actually does that because in the same breath he often says, but we have more work to do and we want a complete total victory. But I think the underlying message is it's coming to an end. It cannot be over-emphasized how important these voters are, these kinds of voters are, I should say, to Republicans if they hope to keep control of Congress. Right. They all voted for Trump. Yeah. So do these voters give a clear message on over the next few months what he can do to keep them happy? Yeah, get out of Iran. Stop focusing on stuff that's not happening in the United States is pretty much the big one.

And actually, this was a part of the conversation. So the moderator, Rich Tao, he asked them, hey, imagine you have Trump's ear right now. What do you want him to say? And we're going to be hearing from Brandon, Gina, Jasmine, Mark, and Lindsay here. You should consult Congress first. I feel like there's been a lot that's been going on lately. And it just seems like there's a lot of military. And I feel like it's going to be spread really thin very soon.

It seems like he makes decisions, like very quickly without thinking a lot about it. So maybe just take time to think about it first. I would just say lay out a strategic vision. Like, what are we doing? It just seems very random. Actual prosperity and peace comes through negotiations. And since he's the dealmaker, I think talking and negotiating and letting everyone else choose how they would like to live in their own nation,

as opposed to us putting our agenda on everyone else. So I think the dealmaker that he says he is, he might be better off working that way, perhaps. I would suggest he does that instead of sending our young men to die abroad. Yeah. And another piece of important context for these voters is, yes, these are people who voted for the president in the last presidential election, but this is not the MAGA base.

These are very changeable, very persuadable voters. A lot of them are into. And polling shows that independents are largely siding with Democrats on a lot of issues, including these issues that we've been talking about. And so they have a little less patience and are less willing to justify some of what the president's doing, especially when it comes to these foreign military actions that have been a big part of Trump's second term in office now. And what we're seeing, I think, throughout all these focus groups, and we see this in national polls too, are a lot of people agree with the what. What Trump wants to accomplish. Everyone would like to see the murderous regime in Iran change to something that would be better for the Iranian people and the world. But at what cost? In other words, if it's at the cost of higher gas prices, people are not interested in that. Same thing with NATO. He got them to spend 5% of their GDP on defense. Great. But at the cost

of potentially breaking up the Western Alliance, maybe that's too high a cost. And we're watching voters figure out what goals are worth what and what kind of sacrifices are they willing to make. And Trump has actually started talking about that, a fair price for people to pay short-term higher prices at the gas to get total victory. People have to decide if they really agree with that. I think this also being coupled with quite a bit of austerity in the past year is also not helpful. There have been some pretty deep spending cuts on things like food stamps, health care, and student loan forgiveness came up a couple times in these focus groups. It is hard to sell that we're spending all this money on military. Billions.

we're spending all this money and we're making cuts to things that make people's lives easier. I feel like this has been like most podcasts are these days, a very President Trump focused podcast. But we're talking about midterm election this November where President Trump isn't going to be on the ballot. Do these voters give any sense on how the president, I guess, plays into their decision making or thinking this year? Well, several of them said if President Trump endorsed a candidate, they would not vote for that candidate. These are voters who voted for President Trump and they said that? Yes, but they're swing voters.

They're swing voters. They, that's why we're doing the focus groups with them. We have a long way to go. We have not really drilled down on how these issues affect their vote in November because in many cases we don't even know who the candidates are yet. So there's a long way to go. But as these focus groups go on, we will be drilling down much more into how their feelings about these issues affect their actual votes for House and Senate.

All right. Well, we can leave it there for now. So, man, I'm so excited for the next focus group, guys. Thank you. Make sure to listen tomorrow. We're going to wrap up all the political news that we did not get to already this week. Make sure to hit the follow button on whatever podcast app you use so you don't miss it. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. And I'm Mara Liason, senior national political correspondent.

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.