The NPR Politics Podcast - This Senate race may shape the Democrats' future

Episode Date: July 28, 2026

The Democratic Party's progressive and moderate wings are squaring off in Michigan as voters decide who the party's nominee for an open Senate seat will be. We look at the race and why it is reflective of broader debates in the party about policy, politics and more.This episode: voting correspondents Miles Parks & Ashley Lopez, and congressional reporter Sam Gringlas.This podcast was produced and edited by Casey Morell and Bria Suggs.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

Today we head to Michigan, where the Senate primary there is playing out like a mini war for the future of the Democratic Party. Arguments about electability, arguments about Israel, and arguments about what a successful campaign looks like in the Midwest after President Trump took the battlegrounds there two years ago. Let's get into it. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. I'm Sam Greenglass. I cover Congress. And Sam, you're coming to us from your heart. home state of Michigan. I'm curious, when you get off the plane there, is there like a red carpet?

Does Gretchen Whitmer like greet you at the airport? What's the deal? I wish. But, you know, Michigan in the summertime is like no place else. You've got the lakes. You've got beautiful weather. And there's really no place I'd rather be on the campaign trail in this particular season. From what I understand of Midwest summers, you were probably greeted by mosquitoes, right? Not as bad as Washington, D.C.S. Okay, fair enough. We did have some smoke here and that outbreak with the lettuce, but now we're doing okay. Okay. So we're coming to you to talk about the Senate race that is super interesting in Michigan for this open Senate seat because Senator Gary Peters is retiring. That is critical if Democrats want to retake the Senate. Republicans are eyeing it as well because

President Trump won there just two years ago. Tell us, Sam, about the two Democrats who are running for the Senate seat. Okay, so I've spent some time now with both of these two candidates. You've got Congresswoman Haley Stevens. She's a former Obama. administration staffer, and she flipped a suburban house seat back in 2018. And she's got, you know, the endorsements of more mainstream Democrats in the state of Michigan, Senator Gary Peters, who's retiring, as you mentioned, Governor Gretchen Whitmer. And this is a little bit about how she describes her campaign. You know, I'm just beating MAGA four times in my congressional races, and I'm passing laws, and I'm doing damn good work. We don't need wish lists or, you know,

infights. We need action now. And that's what I've always been about. That's the Michigan way. Then you've got Abdul Al-Said. He ran the health department in Detroit and Wayne County, and he's backed by progressive superstars like Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. The problem too often with the Democratic Party is that we have an instinct to say the right thing, but we're bought off by the people who are on the side of doing the wrong thing. And so we're constantly hedging and pulling punches. So we say not much of anything at all. I mean, it feels tempting to see this race as something we've talked about a lot this year, this feeling this sort of outsider candidate. We talk about a lot with the Democratic Socialist candidates, though I know

I'll say it has made it clear he is not a Democratic socialist. But I do feel like the dynamics feel similar when you've got this establishment Democrat like Haley Stevens, who's got the backing of the Chuck Schumers of the world. And then you've got somebody saying the things that I'll say it is saying. I mean, do you see it similarly, Ashley? Yeah, it's the insurgents versus the establishment. And I think this is not a typical of a Democratic primary. When a party loses a big election like Democrats did in 2024, a big question is like, okay, where do we go from here? And primaries are kind of letting voters sort of guide where the party is headed. Of course, there's sort of like inter-party drama, which is always very fun as a political reporter to cover.

But, you know, even though Abdul al-Said is not a member of the DSA of the Democratic Socialist of America, a lot of his platform reflects that. And so that's why this is coming up a lot, like Medicare for all, abolish ICE. which are, you know, pretty popular among the left flank of the Democratic Party, depending what issue I'm going to pick abolish ICE because that seems to be the least likely to be popular with more centrist members of the Democratic flank. Although, you know, these things are all sort of arbitrary, right? Like there's a unifying force among Democrats right now, which is that they're really upset at Republicans and their own party. And that's what's playing out here. I will say like Michigan's an interesting state to watch because so much of this DSA versus establishment fight you've seen in blue states like New York and in congressional seats mostly,

which are sort of tailor made to be a little more insulated from independent and centrist politics. You know, that's like why those fights were happening there. Right. As we get this more like ideologically, this like, America's very gerrymandered. We've got the extremes on both ends and so that can bring out extreme candidates in those races. Right. And it's, you know, it's a place where Democrats can, like, try new things and, like, sort of like different kinds of candidates and keep a seat, which is the important thing here for the party. So, you know, this is going to be an interesting one because it's a test case in a swing state and it's a statewide race. So it's just like a lot of things that there's a lot of unknowns. But it is like the dynamics of the infighting between the parties is similar to what we've been seeing, but this is a very different field. And I should say we might not know the outcome of this test until the general election this fall because Senator Bernie Sanders, he won the Michigan Democratic primary in 2016.

So it wouldn't be unexpected if Al-Said wins this primary. What I will be watching for is if that happens, can he win the state this fall? Yeah, it wouldn't be exactly the biggest upset for, you know, the more, as you were saying, the more ideological left-leaning candidate to win a primary because in primaries, it's the more ideological candidate that usually wins, although Michigan does have open primaries, so independent voters can't wait in if they like to. It's just they don't in big numbers. Like primaries tend to be party faithfuls. Well, Sam, you've been talking to a lot of voters since you've been there. What are you hearing specifically about these two candidates? Yeah, so I've been talking to voters literally from the Detroit River all the way across. to the west end of the state and Lake Michigan. And I asked this question that you raised to Alyssa Diebold. She's chair of the McComb County Democrats, of course, this critical county in Metro Detroit. And she said something that Ashley has nodded at there, that this mood is not necessarily about where a Democrat sits on the ideological spectrum, but it's much more about maybe hunger

for something new or that the existing approach to fighting Trump or addressing affordability just isn't working. People are pissed. People are fed up. This is not working for the majority of people. Gas is expensive. Groceries are expensive. Health care is insane. But you know, for a lot of voters, this decision has actually not been very easy. I talked to two voters at a beach at a state park on the coast of Lake Michigan, Madison Miles, and then Elizabeth Schaefer. And they kind of ended up falling on different sides of this dynamic when it comes to their vote. Who has the best chance of beating the Republican? That's going to be my biggest priority.

I just kind of decided that I don't want to think that way anymore. And I just want to vote for who I think will be the best representative for me and my beliefs. And then my decision became pretty easy from there. Oh, and in the Democratic Party, there are two wolves. People voting with their head and people voting with their heart. I mean, it's a tension that's been in the party as well, which is like, do we pick a candidate? that we think would stand up better to a Republican in a general election, the electability argument, although I think the left makes the point that having fighters, no matter their policy, people

who look like they're fighting the system as opposed to protecting it, like the left would argue that that's what voters are talking about here? I feel like we hear via your reporting, actually, from swing voters on this podcast all the time. And specifically, when I think about a candidate who has that abolish ICE message, I guess I'm just really curious. that hasn't really been battle tested yet in a general election because we really haven't seen it. We haven't seen a general election since President Trump's really increased immigration enforcement efforts. Is that a message that those voters who you will need to get some of them to win a general election in a place like Michigan, is that a message that those people are going to be receptive to? No, but you have to remember, one, this is a primary, so they probably plays less of an importance right now.

But, yeah, you know, independent and more centrist voters would prefer reform to, complete abolishment of ICE. Polling has shown that, you know, you and I have heard that from swing voters and battleground states across the country. And then the other thing is like, how salient is abolish ice right now heading into this Michigan primary? Who knows if this will crop up again earlier in the year? This was a bigger issue. But there are, I mean, I'm curious to hear from Sam, like, what actually are people most motivated to vote for right now? Because I would be surprised if it was abolish ice. Yeah, you know, I've heard this come up from a couple of voters, but Michigan has not had the same kind of pronounced response from ICE like we've seen in places like Minneapolis.

And so it might be a bit less salient than some of these other issues. Cost of living came up all the time, the cost of health care, the cost of groceries and gas. I'd say that was the issue that I heard time and time again from people. And then just this concept of being able to push back against President Trump more broadly. I feel like I always like to hear Sam about the demographic groups that we're watching. in a primary like this and then looking ahead to the general election. Do you have any thoughts on that in a place like Michigan? Yeah, I mean, you've got Congresswoman Haley Stevens really trying to boost turnout among black voters who have been a key part of her constituency. And then you also have Abdul Al-Said working to turn out young voters in college towns like Lansing and Ann Arbor. And then some of the swing voters in this race in the suburbs, especially in West Michigan, where these two candidates are less known. They're both from Metro Detroit. Those are folks who could really. make the difference in turning this election.

Okay, let's take a quick break, and then we're going to talk about Israel in just a moment. And we're back. So another theme that has been really big this year in Democratic primaries is Israel. And I gather, Sam, that this is coming up again in this race. Can you explain? Yeah. And one reason this debate has really been so fierce in Michigan, in particular, is because there are sizable Jewish and Arab communities here, especially in Metro, Detroit.

And also that the pro-Israel lobbying group APEC has been spending millions to boost Stevens and oppose Al-Said because he supports ending aid to Israel and has also made calling out special interest money a really key part of his campaign message. So it's both about Israel and Gaza, but also about this broader concept of special interest money in politics. I mean, there are a few issues that in Democratic primaries right now seem to be the biggest. divider between establishment versus some of these insurgent candidates than aid to Israel. And this is an issue, unlike Abolish ICE, where the broader electorate seems to be moving more towards the positions that people like Abdul Al-Sayed have, which is having more skepticism, negative feelings about Israel, and sort of dislike of the United States spending so much money on giving aid to Israel, especially at a time that people are feeling economic pinches in other directions. So it is an interesting test case,

the leadership of the party seems to think that this is a position they can't really move on. But their voters, their voters have a different idea about this. Well, it's interesting. I feel like my impulse is to think that any sort of fall in policy issue is going to be pretty low down on a list of priorities or things that voters are thinking about when they go to the ballot box. But in Michigan specifically, I mean, we talked a lot about the uncommitted movement there and the role that that played in Kamala Harris losing in 2024 to President. Trump, the Uncommitted Movement, you know, really wanting to focus on the atrocities in Gaza. I guess I'm wondering, could this actually play a bigger role in Michigan specifically? Do you think, Sam?

You know, I think this could matter on the margins, and the margins do matter in a state that could be really narrowly decided like Michigan. And I think this could especially matter in some communities. I've met a handful of voters who do say that they are making their choice because of this issue and will sit out the fall election or at least consider sitting out if their preferred pick loses because they just cannot get behind the other because of this particular issue. But I got to say that most of the voters I have talked to over the last week or so, especially folks who are still undecided, there are other topics that are the driving force behind their decision, namely, you know, how the candidate can push back against

President Trump and how they plan to address the cost of living. fight over whether the Democratic Party is going to change its position on Israel, is part of a larger battle over whether the Democratic Party is willing to change its positions to meet their base or to meet Americans sort of where they're at. You know, because the right has shifted rightward, we have some pendulum politics in this country. The left has also moved leftward. And, you know, the Democratic Party sort of sitting in this position where its voters are sort of moving away from, a candidate that's saying, like, I'm willing to meet our voters where they're at versus a candidate who's like, I'm going to stick by a position that the Democratic Party has held for a long time,

is emblematic of how the Democratic Party is going to function on a lot of fronts. And there's a lot of frustration right now that the Democratic Party is not meeting the moment, that they're not adequately changing the way they fight to fight against a party that, you know, has thrown out a bunch of norms and is acting in a way that we haven't seen political parties acting a long time. So, I mean, this is one of the bigger fights, I think, to see in a swing state because its ramifications are about like, little more than Israel, honestly. Well, Sam, the other thing I was thinking about as we were getting ready to tape this podcast is Alyssa Slotkin, the senator who won in 2024, a Democrat.

She is one of the few Democrats who came out of 2024 unscathed. I feel like she won a state that Kamala Harris lost to President Trump. She beat Republican Mike Rogers, who is the likely Republican candidate for Senate again this year. I'm wondering how the candidates that you're talking to and the voters are thinking about Slotkin's campaign considering coming out of 2024, she was considered something of a North Star and that people were talking about things that the Democratic Party could maybe take away from what she did well then. Yeah, I think Slotkin is actually a really good example that points to this dynamic maybe being a bit more complicated than where a Democrat specifically falls on the ideological

spectrum. I was talking about this with Debbie Rosenman. She chairs the Birmingham Bloomfield Democrats in Oakland County. And she brought up Slotkin, who is a moderate Democrat, but frames things more as fight versus flight. It's not moderate versus progressive. She believes it's people who are going to buck the system and fight or people who are going to stay and do the same old, same old. That kind of fits in, I feel like to what exactly what we were just discussing, Ashley. That is so interesting.

What else are you guys going to be watching before we close in this race? Sam, I want to start with you. You know, I think there's going to be a lot of conversation about whether the country can draw some bigger inferences about the future direction of the party from whatever happens in Michigan in this primary. I've talked to some voters who are not convinced that that will be the case, that Michigan is unique in some ways, that might not necessarily extrapolate to other places. But many are going to be trying to make these connections, especially now that Michigan is set to host one of the really early presidential primaries in 2008.

And I was talking about this with McComb County Democrat Joel Rutherford. And he says, you know, in the mix of that conversation, there is one thing that he knows for sure and that he'll be watching. If the Democrats, hopefully, take the Senate and take the House, they better do something. Okay? People better see some real change. Because if they don't, and it's just the same-o-same-o, 28, it's almost not going to matter then who the candidates are. And you know, the other thing that Rutherford told me, he says if Democrats don't come

together after this very messy and tense primary, then there is no way that they can win. I mean, it will be interesting if Abdul al-Said wins. For the most part, he was not as, he was not the front runner coming into this race. And the fact that he has been able to build so much support over the past, you know, several months up to a year is pretty interesting. It does, it is at least a signal that there is a very loud growing part of the party that doesn't like what Democratic leaders are sort of picking for them. Again, not super surprising. Sometimes, you know, when when parties go through. Big losses, the sort of looking in the mirror, who are we? Where do we go from here? It can be sort of a messy, a messy fight. But I think in a state like Michigan, which, you know, this is why we're talking about this so much. It is an important state. It's a battleground state. And it's a swing state. You know, the voters there are like elections are just really close there. And the voters there represent a whole mix of demographics. You know, it is going to be something to watch. But again, as Sam also said, like the real fight will be come November.

All right. Well, polls close on Tuesday next week, so I'm sure we'll be talking about this race again very soon. Sam, have a great rest of your trip and thanks so much for talking with us. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. I'm Sam Greenblast. I cover Congress. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.