The NPR Politics Podcast - Trump Could Win Georgia As Biden Coalition Fractures

Episode Date: May 21, 2024

The diverse coalition of voters that delivered Georgia for President Biden in 2020 might not hold together in 2024. Many young and Black voters wanted to see more action from the administration on voting rights and criminal justice reform and some could stay home in November.This episode: national political correspondent Sarah McCammon, White House correspondent Asma Khalid, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.This podcast was produced by Jeongyoon Han, Casey Morell and Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

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1.36 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, May 21st, 2024. Things may have changed by the time you hear it. Enjoy the show. Congratulations to the new voter. Okay, there's more information. There are questions I have, like, what's Flynn's situation? Why did he not vote previously? Has he just turned 18?

I'm guessing he's a young adult. That could be. Could be. Tell us later, Flynn, if we're wrong about our speculation. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign. I'm As McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House.

And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. Today on the podcast, we are in the state of Georgia, or at least talking about the state of Georgia. It went for President Biden in 2020, but not by a whole lot. And the big question is whether Democrats can keep the state blue this cycle. Asma, you're just back from some reporting in the state. I want to go back to 2020. What went right for Biden? Well, Sarah, I would say a lot of things went right for Biden. This is a state that he won in 2020 by a very slim margin.

You're talking about less than 12,000 votes. And you know this as someone who used to live in Georgia. In order to have a Democrat win that state at the presidential level, a lot of things had to go right. And what I was fascinated and understanding was how this multiracial, multigenerational coalition all came together in Georgia because it wasn't just, you know, women in the suburbs. It wasn't just black voters. It wasn't just disaffected Republicans. It was all of those things collectively coming together in order for Biden to win the state. And what I found in some of my reporting is that there are fractures in many parts of that coalition now. Right. So it's a state that Democrats have had their eye on for a little bit. They were obviously very pleased with the result in 2020. But as you said, it took a coalition.

The facts on the ground have shifted a little bit, though. Trump is no longer president, so he's not in the spotlight in the same way. The racial justice protests of 2020 that drove a lot of energy among younger voters, Black voters, voters of color, those are no longer the big story. And Biden is facing a lot of anger from younger people. So you spoke to folks of all ages while you were in Georgia. What did you hear? That's right. And as you described, Biden is fundamentally fighting a different fight than he was four years ago. The big part of this is that Donald Trump is no longer in office.

And so I heard this from people, you know, you're not hearing Trump every day talk about COVID and what he would advise folks ought to do to treat themselves in this pandemic. But the other big part of this equation, especially in a really diverse state like Georgia, is that the protests after the murder of George Floyd really, really energized voters. And they showed up in the polls because they thought voting would solve some of the big concerns they had around policing, criminal justice reform, voting rights. And now here they are feeling like these things haven't been resolved. And I spoke to a range of voters when I was down in the Atlanta area. And one morning I got together with a number of what I would describe as kind of grassroots activists, many of them progressive, many of them people of color. And there was, I think, a bit of kind of generational debate about how effective voting is as a strategy, specifically voting for Democratic candidates.

And I just want you to take a listen. There was this gentleman, Gerald Durley, he's in his 80s, a reverend, who talked about getting out to support the right to vote with people like John Lewis and Martin Luther King Jr. And then this younger woman, Jamie Turner, she's 26 years old. I'm not here to wave a Biden flag.

I'm on record of saying ceasefire, humanitarian efforts, and release hostages. So I concur. But right now, the political process is that how do we put the pressure to change a Biden administration? But I mean, just to throw up our hands and say, hey, I'm going to give up. I know you say, oh, let's get them in office and like pressure them. But we got them in office and we pressured them and nothing happened. So, Asma, I heard a reference to the Israel-Hamas war there. What are the big issues on these? Yeah, I mean, a number of people did bring up the war in Gaza, which was really interesting to me because it is a factor in their broader dissatisfaction with Biden, particularly for young voters of color. Many of them say they see

images of routinely on social media and they're frustrated by the lack of action from this president to bring about a ceasefire. But I would hear from them, you know, frustration around voting rights, which is a big issue, of course, in the state of Georgia. They were upset around policing issues, criminal justice reform. I heard frustrations from some people about the economy, the fact that they felt like they couldn't afford certain things that they felt are just basic necessity, student loan forgiveness. There's a whole bunch of reasons why there is this general, I would say, dissatisfaction with how Joe Biden has governed for the last few years. Domenico, we heard lots of frustrations there that Asma was hearing from voters in Georgia.

How much do those parallel the challenges that Biden is facing nationwide? Well, I mean, there are lots of warning signs for Biden in Georgia this time around. And if you think about it, comparing how he's doing nationally in polling and then factoring that out into Georgia versus how he did in 2020 really should tell you the story here. You know, we're talking about with black voters, independents and young voters. Independents, Biden won by nine. They were almost three in 10 voters in Georgia in 2020. And we know he's been really struggling in his approval ratings with independents and younger voters. Those under 45 were 44 percent of the electorate. Biden won those 18 to 29 by 13 points, those 30 to 44 by 10. And we know that he's struggling with those

voters this time around. I don't know if there's going to be enough vote with some of the older voters he's doing better with some of the older voters he's doing better with and college educated whites who he's been doing better with to really make up for what was really a multi-generational and a very diverse coalition that he had supporting him last time around. We've been talking a lot about the sort of the base of his coalition of Biden's coalition, younger voters, voters of color. But did you get a sense when you were in Georgia, what those middle of the road independent voters were thinking? I think it depends on who you're talking to, right? I mean, I definitely got a sense that there are fractures in the coalition

on certain issues that we see are weaknesses for Biden in the polls, whether that is, for example, perhaps the war in Gaza, inflation, immigration. And, you know, to me, one of the hard things for Biden is that he has to appeal to a wide swath of the electorate that doesn't necessarily agree on a whole lot. And I would argue in 2020, really only agreed often on one basic thing, which is they were united in their opposition to Donald Trump. So to your question, Sarah, there's a man I met, he voted for Barack Obama before. He's what you would describe as a Kemp-Warnock voter in the and their opposition to Donald Trump. So to your question, Sarah, there's a man I met. He voted for Barack Obama before. He's what you would describe as a Kemp-Warnock voter in the midterms,

meaning he voted for the Republican governor and then the Democratic candidate for Senate. He told me this time around he's leaning towards Donald Trump because he's really upset with the situation at the border. He does not think Joe Biden has handled the border and the migrant situation effectively. All right, let's take a quick break. We'll have more in just a moment. This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies. Send, spend, or receive money internationally and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the WISE app today or visit WISE.com. T's and C's apply. And we're back. Asma, a lot could change before Election Day, of course, but where we stand right

now, does it feel like we're talking about a bit of a reversal here? I mean, Georgia has two Democratic senators, one of whom won a heavily contested runoff. Georgia did vote for Biden, obviously, in 2020. What is the long-term outlook for Republicans in Georgia? That's a good question. I think it depends on whether or not you think the long-term outlook is, say, like a decade away or whether you're talking about two years from now. I would say across the board, many folks, Democrats as well as political scientists, would describe Georgia as still a state where Republicans have an inherent advantage. And the reason they say that is they look at the midterms in 2022 and they'll say, sure, you know, Democrats elected a senator.

But if you look at all the other races, Republicans did really, really well. Andra Gillespie, she's a political scientist at Emory. I asked her this very question of sort of what is the outlook politically for Georgia? And she said, I don't know that I would necessarily describe it as a purple state. I would describe it as a lavender state with shades of pink, being that she thinks, you know, Joe Biden and Democrats really need to run, in her words, a perfect mobilization campaign in order to win this state. And the Biden campaign, you know, look, they say that they'll have 10 offices open in the state by the end of this month. They understand they need to run an organizing and mobilization campaign in order to win the state of Georgia again.

And it's interesting you mentioned 2022. I mean, of course, we saw across the country a lot of energy for Democrats because of the abortion issue, because the Dobbs decision, of course, had just come out that year. Democrats are hitting that issue hard, but there's not a ballot measure in Georgia to drive turnout there. So, you know, it's hard to know how that might factor in. That's true. You know, I spoke with a woman who's really involved with Indivisible, which is this progressive group that often has mobilized women in the suburbs around reproductive rights. And this woman told me that at all of their meetings, they're seeing, say, like three to five more volunteers at every

meeting. Women are energized around this issue. And I do think that there is a bit of an unknown over how much this will be a factor because it's the first presidential election that we're all going to see after the Dobbs decision. But that has consistently been one of the primary motivating issues for Democrats, reproductive rights and abortion. I think when you look at a state like Georgia and you wonder, OK, well, where else are Democrats going to pick up votes if they potentially are going to lose some of those younger voters, voters of color? One thing you hear again and again from folks in Biden's orbit is this optimism that somehow they are going to be able to persuade a chunk of Nikki Haley supporters in the primary over to their side in the general election. And, you know, they'll look at someone like the Republican lieutenant governor in Georgia who recently came out and publicly endorsed Joe Biden. They think that they have some votes to

pick up there. We're going to have a different electorate for sure. But I think that's a little bit of a stretch compared to how big the black vote, for example, in Georgia is, that there just isn't that same level, the same just overall numbers of people who they can really turn out, especially voters who don't have the reflex of voting Democrat to really win them over is going to take millions upon millions of dollars. And at some point, they may feel like that's just not going to be something that's worth their time and effort. Because, you know, even in our polling, 95% of Republicans are saying that they're going to vote for Trump anyway. So what is the percentage that they really feel that they can get to make up for a loss with young voters of color? And I think the question is how many young voters of color, right? And can they convert back to being supporters of Biden by November? I mean, there does seem to be this assessment among Democrats that once there is a clear contrast, maybe once the debates come around, voters will finally have this recognition that this is really

a contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. And what I will say is voters know that they are aware of that. And there's this young woman I met, Marissa Pyle, who told me that she basically worked full time in recent elections to help get Joe Biden elected. But she's not really yet with him. I do think that Biden is pretty much expecting us all around September to go like, oh, it's Joe Biden or fascism. Which is like, to be frank, like it's not untrue. But also that's not democracy. That's a hostage situation. That's not a sustainable electoral path. Well, I mean, this is it's a binary choice, unfortunately. And that's young voters don't love that. Yeah. Well, and that's the reality of our elections. I mean, I hate to say, you know.

It always is. That's what it is. I mean, like, you know, there's a primary process. You get to fight for the person that you want through that primary process. You don't get the person you like, then you can either not vote or you're voting for one of the two candidates who are there. And that's, you know, a lot of people have complained about that for a long time, obviously. One area or glimmer of hope for the Biden campaign in a state like Georgia and in other places as well, is what we've seen in polling is

them doing much better with college educated white voters. In part, that has to do with the abortion issue. In part, it has to do with this idea that democracy is on the ballot. And in Georgia, last time around, white voters with college degrees were about a quarter of the electorate, and they broke pretty heavily for Trump by 11 points. This time around, that's unlikely to be the case, or at least strategists think that Trump's not going to do quite as well with that group. So that is one place where the Biden campaign hopes to be able to try to juice a different part of the electorate. Dominic, I've got a question for you. If there appear to be some weaknesses

in Joe Biden's path to the White House that would take him, let's say, through the state of Georgia, which I will say after a week of reporting, I definitely feel like there seem to be some potential weaknesses. And the question I have is like, are those weaknesses similar to things you're seeing in other states? Do you think this is unique to the state of Georgia? Well, I mean, every state has its own unique makeup for the coalitions that can help a Democrat or a Republican over the finish line. I think Georgia was unique in the fact that it hadn't had a long history of voting Democrat. So to be able to put together this multiracial, multigener. It's a very complicated way to be able to run, especially in a very populated place. So I expect they'll probably focus on a

place like Atlanta and the Atlanta metro area because about half the vote comes from that area for the entirety of the election. But when you look at other states, you know, I think that they may be looking at their resources and, you know, how to do well with these multiracial coalitions. But in places, for example, like Arizona and Nevada, you know, they're smaller populations. They have had a little bit longer history in a place like Nevada voting Democrat and having the unions to help support. And you have Latino voters who Democrats have a long history of trying to get to the polls. All right. We're going to leave it there for today. Before we go, a huge thank you to everyone who supports the show by signing up for NPR Politics Plus.

If you haven't yet, you get things like sponsor-free listening and bonus episodes. It's also a chance for our reporters to tell you about stories they've worked on and want to share with you. Our latest bonus episode is from Stephen Fowler on Donald Trump's campaign speeches. To sign up for PLUS, just go to plus.npr.org slash politics. I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast. Support for NPR and the following message come from the Kauffman Foundation, providing access to opportunities

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