The NPR Politics Podcast - Trump Visits Early States As Crowded Field Stymies Rivals

Episode Date: October 12, 2023

Donald Trump has visited Iowa and New Hampshire more frequently in recent months, though skipping the retail politicking that has historically defined the campaign culture of the early states. It hasn't seemed to impact his standing in the polls though — his rivals continue to stagnate with no clear way to resolve their collective action problem.This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, campaign correspondent Franco Ordoñez, and national political correspondent Domenico Montanaro.The podcast is produced by Casey Morell and Elena Moore. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, my name is Adrienne. I'm 20 weeks pregnant, and I'm taking my mostly everyday walk through the National Arboretum in Washington, D.C., which is right around the corner from where I live. I can't get enough of the blue skies on this beautiful, crisp morning. This podcast was recorded at 1.55 p.m. on Thursday, October 12th. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I will still be trying to get out here mostly every day through the rest of my pregnancy as much as I can. All right, here's the show. The Arboretum is lovely. I love the Arboretum. I think it's one of the best little secrets of D.C. I was just going to say one of the best kept secrets in D.C. is the fact that the Arboretum has some of the best cherry blossoms of the city. Yeah, so if you want to beat the crowds.

Yeah, as opposed to having to go to the Tidal Basin, go to the Arboretum. Yeah, it's gorgeous. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the presidential campaign. And I'm Domenico Montanor, senior political editor and correspondent. And former President Donald Trump, currently the Republican frontrunner, has begun to ramp up his appearances in the early primary states, though he's still there far less than many of his opponents, who he continues to dominate in the polls. Franco, you were just up in New Hampshire spending time with the Trump campaign. What was it like? Well, I mean, I think he's doing a few things. One thing you kind of alluded to is he's trying to kind of wrap up the Republican nomination. He's trying to put it to bed that his lead is

foremost and trying to really just kind of close the deal. So, I mean, he basically focused on two things. One was attacking Biden. He attacked Biden a lot, attacking his politics, blaming him for everything that people are feeling about the economy, any concerns they have, and also blaming him for the attack in Israel by Hamas, the surprise attack, calling it weak leadership on the Biden administration. So he has been very much going after Biden, kind of trying to paint this as a two-person race. At the same time, he did, you know, spend a little bit of time on his rivals in the Republican Party. He talked about DeSantis and basically said that his time is coming to an end. And has started to pay a little bit more attention to Nikki Haley as well, as she has kind of risen in the polls, particularly in New Hampshire. And, you know, has given her in recent weeks a new nickname, Birdbrain, which is,

you know, a clear sign that he's paying attention to her rise. What's the environment like at these? Are they similar to what we've seen on TV? Is it like a Trump rally? Are they big events? Are they intimate events? Is he shaking hands? Is he kissing babies? Like, what's the dynamic between him and the voters right now? I mean, they're big events. I mean, I was there. It was in Wolfboro, New Hampshire, about an hour away from the coast, an hour away from Portsmouth. And there I got there about an hour before the rally started. And the line was very, very long. And he was not, at least from what I could see and what was presented to me publicly, I mean, maybe things were happening behind closed doors, but he was not, you know, you know, having, you know, shaking a lot of hands with, you know, real people as, you know, folks sometimes expect in New Hampshire. Not too much glad handing.

But, you know, he definitely like in rallies of past, you know, he commanded the microphone. He would riff on things. He would make jokes. People were having those in the auditorium or having a good time. Domenico Franco said that Trump is trying to sort of lock up this nomination fight. How close is he to actually being able to do that? As you said, he's still dominating in the polls. But do you still see some oxygen in this primary race for maybe a surprise or a surgence? Yeah, I mean, Trump certainly has about half of the Republican Party, you know, very enthusiastic for his nomination. Clearly, we saw in our poll that came out earlier this month, that, you know, the Republican Party is certainly more enthusiastic for Trump to be the nominee than Democrats are even to be for Joe Biden to be the nominee. You know, of course, it's not a majority. Exactly. There is some, you know, there is a lane for an, you know, a principal alternative to Trump. The problem for that principal alternative is that they have a

very hard time standing out among the crowd of other alternatives to Trump. And I think that we're going to have to start seeing that field sort of weed itself out in the coming months and after those early primary states. I mean, the one person who's sort of on the tips of everyone's tongues at this point has been Nikki Haley. Trump is in a strong position in the primary, but we shouldn't overstate how strong that position is because there are some potential vulnerabilities. I mean, even if you look at our polling, you know, while Republicans said overwhelmingly that they would stick with Trump, even if he was convicted of a crime, you know, that wasn a lot of ifs, it's a lot of buts. But if that can happen, then there is a path, like I said, for somebody else. I also think on substance, you know, Trump, in his recent comments about Hezbollah being, quote, very smart in criticizing Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli government, he does open himself up to attacks from people within the party as well who don't like that kind of foreign policy and who also are then reminded of the chaos that he brings to the

office. A lot of times two candidates just benefit from timing. And in some ways, Haley had already seen sort of a polling bump in New Hampshire. And right now in the current debate that is focused more on foreign policy, especially with the attack on Israel, she seems very comfortable right now having this conversation. She's been doing a ton of television, relying on her experience as U.N. ambassador. Sometimes people benefit from having the right thing to say at the right time. I don't know if that'll fundamentally change the dynamics in this race, but she seems her campaign and herself seem to be comfortable with where they are at this moment. Yeah, I would I would agree with that. I think it's very interesting watching the foreign policy issues and her kind of showing her strengths there. I mean, I think it wasn't necessarily

something that we were anticipating was going to be kind of a, for lack of better words, kind of a winning issue for Republicans. Republicans at this moment are so focused on domestic issues and want to talk more about domestic issues. You know, when she would speak about Ukraine, you know, that didn't necessarily like, you know, catch fire among Republicans. But now, you know, this is a real issue in Israel that's caught a lot of people's attention. So it is, you know, proven to be an advantage to her. And, you know, just as Dominica was saying, you know, Israel, the doing well in the debates, and also, you know, just old school retail politicking, you know, spending a lot, a lot of time in these early states, particularly like New Hampshire, you know, she's catching some attention. And this episode with Israel really also reflects Trump's pettiness, too. I mean, going after Netanyahu certainly seems like a personal attack, because Trump didn't really like that Netanyahu praised President Biden for having won the 2020 election and was hoping that someone like Netanyahu would stand by his side, considering the strong pro-Israel stance that

Trump had taken as president. But then again, look at that. I mean, it's about Trump. It's about himself. It's about whether or not he can have allies who can help him rise to power, not necessarily thinking about the gravity of this moment that we're in. All right, let's take a quick break, and we'll talk more about the campaign when we get back. And we're back.

And we should note that one Republican candidate has dropped out of the race, Will Hurd, the former Texas congressman who never really gained any traction in the race, although we do thank him for coming on and doing a candidate interview for the NPR Politics podcast. But in getting out of the race, he endorsed Nikki Haley. Will Hurd clearly was running in the Trump should not be president again lane that's still occupied by people like former Governor Chris Christie, former Governor Asa Hutchinson, even former Vice President Mike Pence. But Domenico, the question I have to you is, if there is this force within the primary field that doesn't want Trump to be the nominee, do these folks need to make a decision before Iowa to either get in or get out or consolidate

behind an alternative? Yeah, I don't know if it has to be before Iowa. I mean, I do think that a lot of them will get out after Iowa if they don't have the type of showing that they want. And things will move pretty rapidly in that month or two before Super Tuesday for things to really change the shape and dynamic of this race. You know, I think we used to have like a soundtrack or something for when these candidates dropped out or whatever. I think we used to do Bye Bye Bye. That's right. I forgot. I could attempt to sing it, but I'll sing it. No, I think we need a new song this time.

But, you know, I mean, Heard is somebody who, you know, again, ran as an anti-Trump candidate, and he really was in this race for a very short period of time. You know, the energy is not really with that type of candidate in the Republican Party, and certainly it's difficult for any of them to pierce Trump's, you know, ability to win over his own base to be able to get in with any of his voters. So they are going to have to consolidate if they are going to want to have a chance or a hope to be able to defeat him. I mean, Trump is leading in the polls. But if you add up the percentages of everyone who's choosing not Trump, it's pretty significant. If it was a two-person race, it might be more competitive. Trump has always benefited by a wide-open primary contest

because the anti-Trump vote is being divvied up among five, six, seven candidates. it might be more competitive. Trump has always benefited by a wide open primary contest because the anti-Trump vote is being divvied up among five, six, seven candidates. I mean, yes. I mean, I think that's what it's going to take in order to defeat Trump in the primaries. I mean, all the Republican strategists that I speak with, they're like, yes, Haley has a shot. Yes, DeSantis may have had a shot, but it was all contingent on everybody dropping out. Chris Sununu, for example, a very, very popular governor of New Hampshire, he has talked over and over about Trump is vulnerable, pointing to the polls in New Hampshire that show Trump like a little bit lead even in New Hampshire. And the only way that is going to change is if all the other candidates or most of the other candidates drop out and kind of come under one candidate so that that whole group can kind of be the anti-Trump vote. And that just doesn't seem likely to happen. Another potentially significant development this week is Robert F. Kennedy officially left the Democratic presidential primary and said he will run as an independent candidate. Obviously, independent candidates have a very uphill battle to win the White House, but Domenico, they can have an effect in the outcome

of these elections. Yeah, they really can. I mean, I've talked about this before, but, you know, it's very unlikely, it seems, if you look at the data, that Trump would get above 47% in this next election if he is the nominee. He didn't get 47% really previously, didn't really top that. So when you look at Trump's ability to win, the path for him really does rely on a third party. A lot of people want another choice, but it's very unlikely that a third party candidate would win because of the entrenched two party system. It's pretty clear to me that the third party candidates who are all cropping up, whether it's RFK Jr., and appealing to sort of this, you know, disaffected Joe Rogan sort of crowd, or if it's, you know, Cornel West trying to appeal to more progressive candidates, or this threat from no

labels to the Democratic Party, which they clearly view as a threat. You know, all of those votes, most likely would be pulling mostly from Biden. At least that's how Democrats feel. And there's a lot of data to back that up. All right, we're gonna leave it there for today. We should note that we are following closely the election for the next Speaker of the House. And when we have news to report, we'll be back in your feeds as soon as we can. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the presidential campaign. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.