The NPR Politics Podcast - Unpopular, Biden Keeps Notching Wins. Here's His Reelection Plan.

Episode Date: June 1, 2023

The early days of the campaign will be easier for Biden this time around: he's got all the advantages of incumbency, including a relative risk-free primary process. Here's a primer on his campaign leadership and how he's using the Democratic National Committee in an effort to win new states.This episode: White House correspondent Asma Khalid, White House correspondent Tamara Keith, and White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez.The podcast is produced by Elena Moore and Casey Morell. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Mark. I'm standing on the beautiful Wainui Beach in New Zealand. The sun is just poking out, and it's gorgeous. This podcast was recorded at 1.09 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, June 1st. Things may have changed by the time you hear this. Okay, here's the show. I so want to go to New Zealand. Hi, I have lots of places to go. Have you been?

No, I want to. Good friends from there. Well, hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House. I'm Tamara Keith. I also cover the White House. And I'm Frank Ordonez, and I also cover the White House.

And, well, folks, we have got a whole White House trio here because today on the show, we're going to dive into President Biden's presidential reelection campaign. Joe Biden has been a historically unpopular president, but he seems to keep notching up these wins. He's passed a whole bunch of bipartisan legislation. And last year, during the midterms, he managed to hold off the red wave that some folks were predicting. Now at 80 years old he is running for re-election amid widespread concerns about his age and mental fitness for the job and he often uses this line to answer the skeptics. Look like I often say don't compare me to the almighty compare me to the alternative. So today we are

going to talk about Biden's re-election message and the team behind his campaign. And Tam, I want to start with you because it seems that Biden does not appear to be operating much of a traditional campaign, at least in terms of the infrastructure. What does his operation look like? Well, it's early yet. Right. And it's a reelection campaign, which means it's not like a campaign startup when they're just like building this huge infrastructure. He's the president of the United States. He has access to Air Force One and the Rose Garden. It's sometimes known as a Rose Garden strategy. So right now his campaign looks like half a dozen people camped out over at the Democratic National Committee office and then a presidency. And he is not out on the road campaigning in any sort of traditional

campaign sense. I mean, I think partially former President Trump, as he did with so many things, kind of broke our idea of what a reelect looks like because he was literally having campaign rallies from the minute he was elected. And so President Biden is just out there like doing events, promoting the Chips and Science Act or the infrastructure bill or, you know, just like doing president stuff. It's very strategic president stuff and strategic places. I totally, totally, I mean, echo all of that. I mean, I don't think we're going to see the campaign bunting until maybe even next year. I mean, it really is going to be, as Tam just said,

the Rose Garden kind of strategy where we're just going to see him being presidential. I mean, what is it that they often say is the best way to run for president is to be the president? The power of the incumbency. Yeah. I mean, how does this compare, though, Tam, to the old order? You mentioned that President Trump, the former president, he shook up the system in a lot of ways. But is what Biden doing, is it kind of a return to what, say, the former President Barack Obama did? Is this a return to how other past presidents ran for reelection? Yes. In some ways, yes. In some ways, no. It is very much like the Obama strategy in that former President Obama launched his reelection campaign in approximately April of 2011. And then

he basically didn't campaign until later in 2012. Of course, there was somewhat of an infrastructure going after Mitt Romney trying to define him early on, things like that. But in terms of like actually doing campaign events other than fundraisers, which Biden is doing fundraisers, Obama did a lot of fundraisers, there isn't the big splashy campaign stuff with the signs and the logos and all of the things. That's just not happening yet. But what is different about the Biden campaign from the Obama campaign is that President Biden is leading really heavily on the Democratic National Committee, the DNC. What they're doing is investing in state parties in key states, building infrastructure, campaign infrastructure that's part of the Democratic National Committee rather than they can help Democratic candidates, you know, from the newly elected mayor of Jacksonville, Florida, all the way up to House and Senate and state houses and obviously emphasizing key states. So, Franco, I want to pivot the conversation a bit and ask you about the campaign staff. You know, President Biden only recently announced that officially he was going to run for reelection. But I was struck by the fact that he announced his campaign manager as somebody who is not really from his inner orbit. And he is known to be someone who has the same advisors around him for decades. His new campaign manager, not from that inner circle. Yeah, Julie Chavez Rodriguez,

she's definitely not from that close-knit circle. She's actually kind of a behind-the-scenes player and has been a behind-the-scenes player in Democratic politics for years. You know, she's obviously going to take a more prominent role now. She's a veteran of the Obama era, first working in the Obama campaign after college, then moved into the White House where she actually worked with Valerie Jarrett, who many of our listeners will know was one of Obama's closest advisors. And her works, you know, largely been about connecting constituencies. But, you know, just as you know, really has usually it's a small knit circle of political advisors around Biden. She's kind of, you know, broken in there, at least in the outer orbit, you could say.

She's still I'm not sure, you know, she's going to be at the same level as, say, Steve Reschetti or Anita Dunn. But, you know, she's obviously gotten the trust of the president. And that's going to be something that he's going to be leaning on, you know, going forward, obviously. And importantly, I think the trust of those people like Anita Dunn and Steve Reschetti and Jen O'Malley Dillon, who was the campaign manager in the last cycle, that that very tight circle of longtime aides. Franco, tell me a little bit more about her background and the assessments you have and how she'll run a different campaign than what we saw from Joe Biden last time around in 2020. I mean, one of the key things other than the Obama background that really just makes people grab attention is she's actually the granddaughter of Cesar Chavez, the iconic labor leader, who actually his bronze bust is also in the Oval Office. That background

obviously had a big impact on her upbringing. She was always listening and around her grandfather. But it is also critical now as the president, when he starts his reelection campaign, labor is going to be a big, big part of his effort. You know, obviously, unions have been a part of his strategy. Also, she's very tied closely to the Latino community. That is another area where President Biden is going to be looking to kind of energize people. And I think in terms of doing something different, I don't know that, you know, kind of policy or kind of messaging is going to be that much different from what it has been in trying to paint Republicans as out of touch with Americans. But I do think it is going to be different in that, you know, it's not a COVID era. He is going to be out and about.

He is going to be out and about. He is going to be out shaking hands. And Julie Chavez Rodriguez is going to be very closely involved in making sure that he's going to the right places, going to those strategic states and talking to the right people in order to ask for money. All right. Well, let's take a quick break and we'll be back in a moment. And we're back. And Tam, you recently reported on Biden's hopes to win the state of North Carolina. Why focus on that particular state? At this point in a campaign, it's pretty standard for the campaign leadership to put out memos or otherwise talk about expanding the map. That's the term for it. And what I mean by that is trying to win states that they didn't win last time so that they have more routes to get to the 270 electoral votes that they need to become president of the United States or to get reelected. You know, Arizona and Georgia

were incredibly close and having some backup plans or some other options, some other ways to get to that number is important for any campaign. And so the Biden campaign is talking very seriously about competing in North Carolina. They're also talking about Florida, but I focused on North Carolina because that just seems like a more realistic state. The last time a Democrat won that state was 2008 when President Obama won. He lost in 2012. Trump won both times. So it's the state that is so close and yet so far away for Democrats. It is the state that President Biden lost by the narrowest margin. But one reason that Democrats in the state think it could be competitive, and I spoke to the state's governor, who is a Democrat, Roy Cooper, the reason that they

believe it could be competitive is because the Republican majority legislature just passed a strict abortion ban, a 12-week ban, and people in the state are upset about it. And they think that this is going to continue to be a live issue right into the 2024 election. A strong majority of North Carolinians do not like abortion bans, particularly like the one this legislature passed. But on top of that, they've said they're coming back for more the next time around. So it's clear that North Carolinians will be motivated to try and protect women's reproductive freedom. Tim, I hear what you're saying about the political climate being different this year in North Carolina, perhaps. But I also am somewhat skeptical because

it feels like North Carolina has been a Democratic hope for a long time. I mean, I remember being out there ahead of the 2016 election when Hillary Clinton's campaign talked about needing to win. I believe it was about like half of their votes being black voters because they talked about this state having such a large percentage of African-American voters. That, of course, did not materialize. As you said, the former President Donald Trump won that state. It feels like Democrats have talked about North Carolina in the past, and they haven't been able to ensure that their voters do show up, that they're able to come up with the right math. That's the challenge for Democrats in that state, is that if they could actually get Black voters and young voters to turn out at the same rate as other voters in the state, then they could win.

But they haven't been able to get those voters to turn out. And that happened again just in the most recent midterms where there was a candidate, Sherry Beasley, a Democratic candidate who lost to Congressman Ted Budd, now Senator Ted Budd. Democrats just couldn't get their voters, their key voters to turn out in a way that made it possible for them to win that race. Now with the president at the top of the ticket, and the party really investing in the state, they could do this, they could make this happen. There will also be a competitive governor's race in 2024. But you're right. There's very good reason to be skeptical that Democrats are going to be able to suddenly win North Carolina. And I talked to a consultant named Jonathan Feltz, who ran the campaign for Ted Budd, who was like, come on down, Joe Biden, we'd love to see you.

So Franco, this is all part and parcel of Biden's broader campaign this time around. It seems that with no serious primary challenge, that he has a sort of less bruising path, right, to getting both re-nominated, but also to the presidency. And he has the advantages of the incumbency. But does that pose any challenges to him? I mean, do you see that the Republicans are out there campa having to campaign every day, that maybe he won't be as ready as some of the others come general election time. But the president, while it's not officially campaigning, he is going to be out there. He is going to be traveling, as Tam just saying, to North Carolina. He's going to be traveling to Nevada. I mean, he's going to be campaigning, even if it is not officially campaigning.

Yes, the campaign bunting won't be out there as much or until later. But, you know, there's no question that he is heavily involved in this process and he's going to be very active in kind of the Rose Garden strategy. All right. Well, that is a wrap for today's show. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House. I'm Tamara Keith. I also cover the White House. And I'm Frank Ordonez. I also cover the White House. And from your White House crew, thank you all for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.