The NPR Politics Podcast - US Added Jobs In June⁠—But Now The Pandemic Is Getting Worse

Episode Date: July 2, 2020

The unemployment rate fell to 11.1%. But there are indications that the job growth has slowed recently amid a surge of new coronavirus infections. Follow our playlist, The NPR Politics Daily Workout.This episode: campaign correspondent Asma Khalid, political reporter Danielle Kurtzleben, and White House reporter Ayesha Rascoe. Connect:Subscribe to the NPR Politics Podcast here.Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Find and support your local public radio station.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Eric, his husband Kevin, and our dog Max. We are drying off on the beach at Muskegon State Park in West Michigan after a swim in the warm waters of Lake Michigan, home to some of the best and least visited beaches in the country. A great place to maintain social distances. This podcast was recorded at 2.06 p.m. on Thursday, July 2nd. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but one thing that hasn't are the spectacular sunsets over the Great Lakes.

That sounds amazing. I totally agree. I am a little biased growing up right around Lake Michigan, but they are beautiful sunsets. Well, hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the presidential campaign. I'm Danielle Kurtzleben. I cover politics. And I'm Ayesha Roscoe. I cover the White House. Last month, the country added nearly 5 million jobs, and that's on top of the nearly 3 million jobs that were added in May. And we're getting these optimistic job numbers at the same time that a number of states are reporting an uptick in coronavirus cases. So, Danielle, I feel like

this is a confusing, multiple-layered storyline to follow. Yes. I mean, look, first things first, coronavirus has broken the scale on the jobs report. I mean, nearly 5 million jobs would have been entirely unthinkable during a quote-unquote normal month, before the pandemic at least. A monthly payrolls number of, say, 200,000 to 50,000, that would have been pretty good, kind of great even. So these numbers, as a person who used to cover this every month, I got to say, my brain is still broken by every monthly jobs report we get. Because it's like everything is just on steroids. And everything's a record.

Yes. And also, by the way, another way it's broken, 5 million jobs isn't even enough to get us halfway out of the hole we're in. Like we're in a huge hole right now. But Danielle, I guess the question, though, that I ask is, as big as those numbers look, it feels like we've begun to hear some states talking about shutting down bars, right, or shutting down things. So is, I guess I'm curious that, you know, is this a real accurate indicator of where we are economically with jobs in this moment? The answer is no, it's not. Because, I mean, it's accurate in the sense that it, or it's somewhat accurate in the sense that it was measuring at the time it was measuring. But the problem is it is not accurate today, July 2nd, as we are talking. Because this survey that

was done to get this unemployment number, it was done in roughly the middle of June. So that was two and a half-ish weeks ago. So if you think of the chart of where coronavirus has gone in this country, coronavirus cases, there was a big spike, a dip, and then another. We're at the top of another spike right now. This jobs report, this job survey was done during that dip. So we've had this big spike since then. That is why there is reason to, yeah, be happy that we got millions of jobs, but also to not exactly quite, you know, put on your party hats just yet. Because there is so much unknown. There is so much more bad stuff that could happen, quite frankly. So it sounds like, Danielle, it's unclear whether these jobs will permanently be here or whether this is sort of a temporary moment of reprieve that we have. But either way, do we

have a sense of where these job gains are coming from? Sure. A lot of them, 40 percent, were in a sector that the jobs report calls leisure and hospitality. So hotels and restaurants is a lot of that. We also had quite a few in retail, in stores. So that's where a lot of it is coming. But you're absolutely right that since this job support was taken, we have had governors in Florida and Texas, they have ordered bars to close again for a second time because those states, which by the way, have a lot of workers in them. So a lot of more people who could once again add to unemployment rolls. We have all those people that who are now out of work to again to slow the spread of the virus. California has closed down indoor restaurant dining. I mean, we could

go on and on about all sorts of states. So, yeah, you have a lot of states, very populous states that have paused their reopening plans. So it sounds like I'm hearing a lot of caution in the way you're describing these numbers, Danielle. And I guess, Ayesha, that is not at all the tone or the tenor that we heard from the president when he spoke about these numbers this morning. I mean, he addressed them as being historic numbers and seemed to adopt the sense that the mission is sort of accomplished. What he seemed to say, I mean, he definitely came out and he talked about these numbers, these record-setting numbers, and said that this is incredible news and it's the result of work that he, his administration has done, and the governor's working together. But no no there was not a sense or the context that we are in a really big hole so even having these numbers we still have a long way to go and there was also when he did

talk about um that there were these you know that there are cases on the rise he basically talked about them he said we're to put out the flames. Yeah, there's some flames here and there. You know, I guess if you were in your house and like, oh, there's some flames in that corner over there. We're going to put them out and, you know, we'll just, you know, everything's going to be fine. He also was bragging about and saying that he thinks the third quarter is going

to be amazing when those numbers come in. So he's really staking a lot on this. And, you know, as Danielle has said, it's not really clear that that is what is actually going to happen and be borne out. And Asma, I know obviously you cover Joe Biden. What is what's he saying about all of this? Joe Biden said today that he feels like there's no victory to be celebrated, that we as a country are still down nearly some 15 million jobs. And in his view, the pandemic is getting worse, not better.

And I mean, he talked a lot about this caution, Danielle, that you've been expressing. And I do think that there are legitimate questions when we look at the economy of, you know, the jobs that are being added, even if these are like gangbuster numbers, right? Five million jobs, roughly. Are these just people who were furloughed who are now getting back to work? And sure, that is definitely a positive sign. But do we have an indication that people, when we talk about 15 million people who don't have jobs, that they're all going to get back to work? Or some people may face permanent job losses. Yeah. I mean, if not permanent, long term, most definitely. I mean, we're in a recession. It's really hard for an economy that is in the doldrums like we are right now, for there to be a lot of sectors that are really able to create a lot more jobs all at once. The

longer this goes on, the harder it will be to bring people back to work, right? Because think of it on a granular level. Let's say I am furloughed from my job as a waitress at the restaurant down the street. Well, if I'm temporarily furloughed and it doesn't go on that long, then when the restaurant comes back, then they call me back and I go back to work. If this goes on long enough, maybe the restaurant closes. Then whenever the economy comes back, I have to go out and find a new job. Or maybe if it just goes on long enough, the restaurant says, listen, we don't know if we can hire Danielle back. We're going to fire her.

Then I have to once again go out and find a new job at some point. I might not get that restaurant waitressing job back. We're going to fire her. Then I have to once again go out and find a new job at some point. I might not get that restaurant waitressing job back. So multiply that out across the whole economy. And that is what we're dealing with here. The longer this goes on, the tougher it's going to be. All right. Well, let's take a quick break and we'll talk more about this when we get back. Support for NPR and the following message come from DuckDuckGo. Do you want the same internet but more privacy? DuckDuckGo can help. They help millions of people like you get privacy online without any tradeoffs.

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And we're back. And Danielle, you recently did some reporting that I think is important and related to this conversation about the economic effects of the pandemic. You looked at how the coronavirus could widen the gender wage gap, particularly actually for working mothers, which I will say as a young working mother was a slightly alarming storyline to read, but important. Yes, absolutely. I mean, this pandemic, this recession caused by the pandemic, could widen all sorts of existing economic inequalities that we have. So let's look at gender, for example.

Typically, in recent recessions, the last couple of decades, when a recession happens, usually men's unemployment goes up higher than women's. Well, in this recession, women's unemployment is higher than men's and has been for a few months. That's unusual. And a big reason here, according to economists I've talked to, is child care, that that is driven by, at least in substantial part, by moms because women, first of all, are more likely than men to be single parents. In two-parent households, women are more likely than the men to take on more of the child care, to take on help more with some of that schoolwork that the kids are doing.

The big issue here is this, is that when people are unemployed, when they have a gap in their resume, that tends to diminish their future earnings. That is how this could have lasting, years-long implications for women versus men. And I also want to highlight went down. But the gap, for example, between Black and white Americans grew. The Black unemployment rate is around 15 percent. For white people, it's around 10 percent. And, you know, President Trump did talk. He did mention specifically about growth in jobs for Black workers. The issue is that even though they did go up, I think by a few hundred thousand, but they had lost so many jobs or black workers like everyone else had lost so many jobs so that even though yes, these jobs were created, they're still, as you said, at like 15% unemployment. So it's kind of this disconnect

when you're hearing President Trump going, oh, yeah, all of these jobs were created for for black workers, but there's 15 percent unemployment for African-Americans. Ayesha, that is a really important point. And one question I have about these jobs numbers is that, you know, for the second month in a row, we're seeing these increases in part that look so big because the job losses were so large. But it is a positive sign, right? I mean, I think whenever we're looking at these numbers, we should acknowledge that like seeing certainly job gains instead of job losses is a good sign. Does it mean for you all that the recovery once the virus gets under control could actually be a little bit easier to manage than folks had initially imagined? It does seem like that the economy was picking up faster than people had expected, right?

Yeah, I mean, look, anything that keeps people connected to the labor force as connected as they can be is great. You know, that's that's wonderful. And that, you know that bodes well to some degree. I think the way to look at these latest numbers is this, is that it looked as if when the virus was diminishing, maybe we had the potential to bounce back with some degree of strength. And you can hear me already being really soft on this because the other thing is this. We have so much reason right now to look at these numbers and be somewhat excited, but also to say the virus is not gone, the virus is coming back. These numbers are just too shaky right now to quite celebrate as much as we might otherwise. And we have not seen a successful reopening in the U.S. yet and what that looks like.

So we don't know exactly at this point, like, what would it look like to have a quote unquote reopened economy and the virus under control? Because we thought it was under control in California. It's not. And, you know, in most states you have the virus going up and it's not just testing. So we really don't know what that economy looks like. And is that an economy that doesn't have indoor dining, doesn't have a lot of tourism, you know, doesn't have bars or, you know, all theme parks and in areas where that was a big part of your economy, that might make a big difference.

And I actually have one more thing to add on to here that we haven't brought up yet, and that is what Congress might do further, right? How much they might continue current... You're saying economic assistance for folks. Yes, absolutely. Do they decide to continue that, for example, $600 per week unemployment assistance? Would they, if this resurgence in the virus continued, decide to send out another stimulus check to people, for example, $600 per week unemployment assistance? Would they, if this resurgence in the virus continued, decide to send out another stimulus check to people, for example? I mean, because these numbers are such a Rorschach test, it is possible for people to look at these numbers and

say, oh, hey, things are great, or to look at them and say, my God, we need to do more stimulus. And depending on how Congress reacts to all of this and how Trump reacts to all of this, that could determine how much better the recovery goes or does not go, depending on what kind of stimulus they decided to do or not do. All right. Well, that is a wrap for today. And if you haven't heard, we have a new way for you all to listen to this podcast in your daily routine. We launched a workout playlist on Spotify featuring our favorite workout songs that will be updated daily with the latest episode of this podcast.

We'll add new songs regularly to keep you fresh and motivated. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the presidential campaign. I'm Danielle Kurtzleben. I cover politics. And I'm Aisha Roscoe. I cover the White House. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.