The NPR Politics Podcast - Weekly Roundup: Jail Time For Trump Over Gag Order Violations?

Episode Date: May 10, 2024

Donald Trump remains on trial in New York state court over alleged hush money payments. This week, Trump was warned by the judge to stop violating his gag order or he could find himself in jail. And thousands of people are still casting ballots for Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary, even though she suspended her campaign months ago. Will those protest voters come home to Trump's candidacy, vote for President Biden or just stay home?This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, political reporter Ximena Bustillo, senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro, and White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez.This podcast was produced by Jeongyoon Han, Casey Morell and Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Autograph Collection Hotels, with over 300 independent hotels around the world, each exactly like nothing else. Autograph Collection is part of the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio of hotel brands. Find the unforgettable at AutographCollection.com. This is Becky in Easton, Pennsylvania, and I am busy feeding the seven six-week-old kittens I'm fostering for the local animal shelter. This podcast was recorded at 12.11 p.m. on Friday, May 10th. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but these kittens will still be growing like weeds. Okay, here's the show.

Oh, what cute little kitties. That's a nice way to spend a Friday. Nicer than how Jimena's spending it, I think. It's a little chilly out there in New York. A little chilly. Definitely not a cuddly kitten around me. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis.

I cover politics. I'm Jimena Bustillo, and I also cover politics. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And former President Trump's trial in New York continues. This week, the jury heard testimony from former adult film actress Stormy Daniels, a central figure in this case that involves an alleged 2006 sexual encounter and payments made during his 2016 presidential campaign to keep it quiet. Ximena, you've been in court all week. We should know you're outside the courthouse right now. In her testimony this week, Daniels offered a lot of sexually explicit testimony, the details of which we're not going to get into in this episode.

But it raises the question as to why this type of testimony was necessary for a jury to hear in a case where the actual crime alleged involves business fraud. Right. So you have to think about the prosecution's case as a chain reaction. And so Stormy Daniels' testimony and the details were one of the first links in that chain reaction. What was it that former president, then candidate Trump, wanted to conceal, wanted to hide so badly that he would pay $130,000 to keep quiet and have her sign nondisclosure agreements. Now that $130,000 was paid for by Michael Cohen, Trump's then fixer and former lawyer, and Trump reimbursed Michael Cohen for that money. And so those are the business records at the end of the day that we are looking at. Those are some of the checks and invoices that we are spending a lot of time

also looking at. But the prosecution really wanted to explain to the jury why that money was even paid out to begin with. Do you have a sense of how that testimony went over with the jury? So Stormy Daniels testified over the course of two days. She started on Tuesday and Thursday. Tuesday was definitely more of a rough day. It was a day where we did hear a lot of the salacious details and that yet to be determined how that landed with the jury. The second day was definitely a little bit more of a concise day for Daniels as a witness. On the first day, she was definitely a little bit more of a concise day for Daniels as a witness. On the first day,

she was definitely a little bit more anxious and frantic. The judge, the different lawyers, as well as the court recorder, continuously asking her to slow down to just answer the question being asked. None of that happened on Thursday. And so it was a lot more of a straightforward day, which I think will probably impact the way the jury at least considers her testimony on either day because they were very different. Domenico, you have to think that weeks like this in a courtroom are exactly why Donald Trump should be thankful that there are not television cameras broadcasting this across the country. A hundred percent. I mean, this is the salacious, you know, sort of stuff that Trump was trying to avoid when he instigated the payoff in the first place. And here we are staring down another presidential election where he's trying to avoid these dozens of charges in lots of different cases now, when this one looks like it might

be the only trial that takes place. We saw a delay likely in Florida, too, in the classified documents case that's likely to be postponed indefinitely now. So this could be the only case we wind up getting. I was looking at Georgia as a potential one that could influence the election, possibly politically, because cameras are allowed in the courtroom there. But even that one is up in the air at this point. I mean, Trump had a really bad week in court. He continues to test the gag order put on him by the judge to restrict how he can talk about this case. And the judge this week even went so far to suggest he could send Donald Trump to jail if he continues to violate it. Right. That's how this week completely kicked off was with a threat of jail time for the former president. And that is because Judge Juan Mershon says that he believes that the maximum $1,000 penalty per violation just isn't enough to deter the former president, who is known

for being a wealthy businessman, from violating the gag order if he wants to. And so he warned that if this continues, he will consider jail time as a penalty, which he is able to do. And so a lot of time was spent with Judge Mershon telling Trump that, you know, he doesn't want to do this. Putting him in jail is the last thing he wants to do. But I believe he also said, quote, I have a job to do. And, you know, that kind of opens the door for how serious Judge Juan Mershon is taking that threat. Domenico, you have to, I have to admit, color me skeptical that a former United States president and current presumptive Republican nominee for president is going to be put behind bars.

Yeah. And, you know, Trump is almost sort of baiting the judge to do that. He was, he's kind of been talking about that almost as if he wants to be able to use that to flex a little bit on this. Because remember, Trump raised a ton of money off of that mugshot in Fulton County, Georgia, when that finally came out. So this is somewhat him sort of baiting the judge in this case because he wants to build some more energy and enthusiasm with his base. But, you know, the judge doesn't have a lot of leverage in this case because here's a guy who's a billionaire. He can game the system. He's got the best lawyers. He's got an entity that's helping with his campaign that's helping pay his legal bills.

You know, these fines of $1,000 for, you know, violations of a gag order aren't really hurting somebody like Donald Trump. So there isn't a lot that Mershon can do, the judge in this case, and he would rather not kind of poison the well to give Trump a reason or grounds for appeal. Jimena, this trial is not over yet. Who is next up? Who is the jury going to hear from next? Well, we know that the jury is not going to hear from Karen McDougal, who is the other woman. She's a former Playboy model that received another payment. We thought she might be one of the next big witnesses, but yesterday they said that she is not. So really, that leaves Michael Cohen, Trump's former lawyer and fixer, as the last major witness that we will see in this trial. That being said, there are still plenty of other

expert witnesses that are being called up from the prosecution to continue to tie up some loose ends about processes, how Trump got these checks, who made phone calls to who and when, what did text messages say. And that is all aimed, as the prosecution said in their opening statements, to help corroborate whatever it is that Cohen will tell the jury. All right, Jimena, thank you so much for reporting. Get back in that courthouse. Thank you. Will do. All right, let's take a quick break. And when we get back, we'll talk about more from the campaign trail. And we're back and campaign reporter Franco Ordonez is here. Hello, friend. Hey there. So Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee, but the primary elections are still

rolling along. And in Indiana this week, Trump obviously won handily. But former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is still pulling in a significant chunk of the Republican vote. She received nearly 22 percent in Indiana's primary. Domenico, who are these people that are not voting for Donald Trump at this point? Well, some of this depends on, you know, where you're voting and in which state, you know, what their process is, because if it's semi-open or semi-closed, you can have some

independents who might lean Republican, maybe some of them voted for Biden previously. You know, Haley's numbers are a little bit lower in states that are closed, which are places where only Republicans can vote. Aside from all that, the fact that you have 17 to 22 percent of voters who are still saying, even in a Republican primary, even with these Republican-leaning independents, that they don't want to vote for Donald Trump, it does send a bit of a message. A lot of them, obviously, Haley's done much better with college educated voters, wealthier voters, who have a problem with

how Donald Trump has been talking lately on the campaign trail. Maybe they voted for him previously, but they don't want to be associated with him. And it is a little bit of a problem that Trump is just not addressing right now. You know, it's interesting if you look at the maps of states and where her vote's coming from, it's maybe not surprising that a lot of it is centered around urban and suburban areas. But it does underscore the point that Donald Trump has a suburban problem. Yeah, I think that's true to an extent for sure. I think that there's another part of this, though, that we have to think about, which is how many of them are lodging a protest vote saying that they want Trump to kind of try to

win over Haley or moderate his tone a little bit, which, yeah, we're all still waiting for that. But you have in polling, for example, in our latest NPR-PBS News-Hour Marist poll, 95% of the Republicans surveyed said that they're going to be voting for Donald Trump. So the truth is probably somewhere in between, or are these folks coming around or not going? This is a big question. While we have all of this sort of movement and volatility underneath, because we've continued to see college educated white voters move toward Joe Biden, even as Biden has struggled with younger voters and non-white voters, especially Latino men, who Biden had done much better with in 2020, and his margins seem smaller right now with them. Franco, what does the Trump campaign say about this?

And what, if anything, are they doing to sort of reach out to these voters? I mean, in many ways, they're largely dismissing it. They're downplaying it on the campaign trail. Trump has said it's not a big deal. And he points to what Domenico just said about over 90% of Republicans in polling say that they support Trump. I mean, they kind of argue that these are voters who would have voted for Biden anyways. And I mean, to your latter question, I mean, they're not really making much of an effort to kind of pull them over. I've talked with a lot of Republican strategists who just kind of point out that generally around this time after the primaries, most of the candidates will kind of

shift to the center. Biden certainly has shifted to the center on issues like the border, for example. But Trump really has not yet in many fashions. I mean, I guess you can make an argument that he has a little bit on Israel in the situation with Gaza, but they do not appear to be making much of an effort. And, you know, again, when pressed, you know, there have been times where reporters have caught Trump on the trail one-on-one. And he has also said that he anticipates that these Republicans in the end will eventually come home when it is essentially Trump versus Biden. And when we're on the campaign talking to voters, a lot of those Republicans say they will vote for Trump. If Trump loses, I think, though, we will look back on this

as a canary in the coal mine as to, you know, one of Trump's real Trump loses, I think, though, we will look back on this as a canary in the coal mine, as to, you know, one of Trump's real personality flaws, which is that you have to have 100% fealty to him. And it's a one way street. And if you're not loyal to him, you don't show that kind of fealty. And he's not going to make an effort to win you over. Well, if he loses, and we've seen, you know, majorities continue to say that they have an unfavorable opinion of Trump. And this has been the case for nine years. If he loses, then, you know, in that primary happened to vote a month after Haley dropped out. Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia. I mean, protesting the way Biden has handled the war between Israel and Hamas and are saying that they don't want to vote for Biden. And that's another potential problem for one of these candidates. Although I do think there is a distinction here because the opposition vote to Biden seems really centered around policy disagreements. And the opposition vote in the Republican primary seems focused on the candidate himself. And that seems like a

brighter red flag warning, especially as you see Biden sort of pivot to the concerns of these voters in the primary, clearly in the decisions he's made in tactical changes this week towards Israel. Like this is an acknowledgement that he has a political problem in some respect, and Donald Trump's not going to stop being Donald Trump. Well, like everything else in our politics over the last decade, and however exhausting it's been, it's been about Donald Trump. I do agree that it is more about Trump as a candidate, but I also think it is part of the issues. I mean, many of the issues that these Haley voters are concerned about are issues that, you know, kind of just

speak to the old Republican guard. And on certain issues like foreign policy, some of those views are more aligned with Biden, particularly Ukraine. Ukraine is something that often comes up in opposition to Russia. And that is something that I hear quite a bit. So while it is, you know, certainly Trump, the candidate and the protest vote focus against Biden is a lot more focused. I do think those issues are, you know, very consequential on Trump. But Trump does not seem to be trying to move to the center while Biden, frankly, is. Franco, I'm glad you referenced the border earlier because there was also some interesting immigration politics this week in that the White House is signaling that the president is set to propose new rules that could fast track certain deportations for some migrants. Clearly, the White House feels that immigration on the border is an issue that they have some weaknesses on. Oh, no, no doubt. Yeah. And this is another example of the Biden

administration trying to kind of message that it is willing and trying to be tougher on the border. And as you say, it's because this is going to be such a big issue in the election up and down the ballot. But don't forget, you know, Joe Biden was ready to sign a very conservative border measure, and it was derailed by Republicans and President Trump, who did not want to deliver an immigration victory to this president ahead of the election. You know, Democrats have a very strong argument that in recent American politics, they have not had a good faith negotiating partner on immigration and a whole host of a lot of other issues. All right, let's take another break. And when we get back, time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back and it's time for Can't Let It Go, the part of the show where we talk about the things that we just cannot stop thinking about, politics or otherwise.

I'm going to go first because I know you two in particular did not think I was going to let this week go by and not talk about brain worms. Nice. Independent presidential candidate, potential election spoiler, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. It was reported in The New York Times this week, citing a 2012 deposition he had to give in a divorce case that he acknowledged that he once had a parasitic worm that got into his brain and died in there. And at the time caused significant cognitive issues that he says he has since recovered from. Many things not to let go about this, but I do think one of them is that a big point of his campaign is that he is the healthier, more robust, more cognitively strong person to lead this country. And this is not the kind of story you like to see when that's

your message. Yeah. And he's, by the way, 70 years old. He's the more healthy 70 year old. Yeah. I mean, this is actually, though, a problem that is apparently very widespread worldwide. I learned that on NPR this morning. Exactly. It's not really a Western hemisphere issue as much as it is elsewhere in the world, which is why we probably don't hear that much about it and why this was such a shocking headline. You don't see every day a presidential candidate says worm got into his brain and died and ate part of it. I mean, this is very strange. I do have to say, RFK did a post about this on social media, clearly trying to make light of it. I mean, this is very strange. I do have to say, RFK did a post about this on social media, clearly trying to make light of it. And he posted, I offer to eat five more brain worms and still beat President Trump and President Biden in a debate. Okay. Feels like he jumped the worm there.

I just think it's just, I mean, I just think it's just great adding to this election cycle. It's just another example of the election cycle that we have ahead. The weirdest election we have all covered. Domenico, what about you? What can't you let go of? I can't let go of the rat beef between Kendrick Lamar and Drake. Neither can they. I think it's ended now.

And I think that one of them has waved the white flag and it's not Kendrick Lamar. It's going to be Drake. Come on. and it's not Kendrick Lamar. It's going to be Drake. You know, and the thing I really can't let go in all of this is the timeline of all of it and how Kendrick Lamar sort of suckered Drake into dropping really what was his biggest bomb with this track Family Matters. And then Kendrick Lamar, less than 30 minutes later,

released maybe the darkest rap diss track of all time in Meet the Grams, which just made a lot of people go, oh, wow, that was heavy. There's a lot of accusations being thrown around. He essentially ended Meet the Grams saying, this isn't a rap battle. This is a battle for your own soul. And, you know, I mean, just really taking apart a lot of what Drake is and what he stands for, who he is. And people were really kind of like, is this, this got really personal. It felt like the moment in the party when everyone's like, I think it's time to go home because someone might get hurt, you know? And then, and then when you just, when you thought

it was over or that this has gotten really bad, Kendrick then dropped another track called Not Like Us. And Not Like Us was sort of the TKO. And he essentially is mocking Drake after having built this foundation. And it's going to be, if it isn't yet, it's going to be the A track of the summer. I don't like these rap diss battles because I am a child of the 90s and they ended poorly. There's like an undercurrent of like violence and like I have like PTSD from it. Like I see it happening and like the 90s are repeating themselves and these things happen

and you're like, guys, stop. Like it doesn't, it doesn't always end well. It doesn't always end well, but it often boosts sales. No. Franco, what about you, it doesn't always end well. It doesn't always end well, but it often boosts sales. No. Franco, what about you? What can't you let go of? On that note, I am going to go really controversial today. And I am going to talk about baby names.

Ooh. So the Social Security Administration just put out the list of top baby names. And it came out today. So it's a little, maybe it's a little early, but this is something I've been curious about for a while because the top baby names this year have been the same for five years in a row with top names like Liam for boy, Olivia for girl. I was going to say Sophia's got to be in there. Sophia's number five among girls. Noah's a big one. Oliver, James on girls.

Emma, Charlotte, Amelia, Sophia. And I know I'm going to get in trouble with some friends of mine, but where is the uniqueness, the creativity? How can we have the same names five years in in a row you know it's not a top baby name susan we peaked in like the 1940s and it's been i don't know if we've cracked the 100 since then domenico's not there either or franco i'm a big advocate of domenico as a name it's pretty popular in italy but we should evangelize this when people hear it they seem to like it so you know let's get diverse people let's put they seem to like it. So, you know, let's get diverse people. Let's put this more out there. It's different, right?

You know what I got to say? I'm about to read off some credits for this podcast, and I think we all have to give ourselves credit as we're all pretty uniquely named folks. There's some good ideas in there, people listening. All right. That is it for us this week. Our executive producer is Mathone Mottori. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our producers are Jung Yoon Han, Casey Morrell, and Kelly Wessinger. Special thanks to Roberta Rampton. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics.

I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the campaign. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.