The NPR Politics Podcast - Weekly Roundup: May 27th

Episode Date: May 27, 2022

The Senate is negotiating over limited legislation aimed at reducing gun violence, although those negotiations are narrow in scope and unlikely to produce results. And the number of competitive elections to serve in the House of Representatives has been declining rapidly over the last 20 years, thanks to gerrymandering and partisan sorting.This episode: congressional correspondent Susan Davis, congressional reporter Claudia Grisales, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.Support the show and unlock sponsor-free listening with a subscription to The NPR Politics Podcast Plus. Learn more at plus.npr.org/politics Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Find and support your local public radio station.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey y'all, this is Siva at the Hagerman National Wildlife Refuge in North Texas. I'm here to birdwatch and you're listening to the NPR Politics Podcast and the time now is 12.08 p.m. on Friday, May 27th. By the time you have listened to the show, I would have hopefully added a few more species to my life list. All right, on with the show. And I'm Domenica Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And senators are once again engaged in a new round of talks over whether they can reach any bipartisan agreement on gun-related legislation. This comes after the elementary school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, that left 21 dead, including 19 children. So, Claudia, what's the level of optimism like on the Hill that anything is going to come of this round of talks? Well, there is a little bit.

We have seen this play out before, but we see senators such as Chris Murphy of Connecticut, who, of course, saw a mass shooting in his state at Sandy Hook Elementary in 2012. He's been working since on gun reform legislation. And he says he's determined. He's meeting with all the key Republicans, including Texas Senator John Cornyn, who was just at the scene of that shooting in Texas. And they're expressing optimism. But again, we have seen this happen before. So it's not clear they could really reach a deal this time.

Are there any Republicans or new Republicans engaging in this? You mentioned John Cornyn, but he is someone who in the past has at least been open to some changes, at least to laws about how you can access guns. Right. There are some additional Republicans that are part of these talks. Susan Collins of Maine, perhaps, could be a wild card in here, and she could be a part of these negotiations. Another name that's come up is Roy Blunt of Missouri. Since he is in his last term, possibly it's something that could come up for him. There are other Republicans that could be in play. There is a lot of pressure. There was a very emotional press conference and rally protest at the Capitol yesterday. The pressure is high for these members to reach some sort of a deal. But that's going to be the key if the GOP engages and enough members do to where they can have a breakthrough in the Senate. It's interesting because Murphy has been pretty explicit. He's like, I'll do anything. He's like, I'll bend over backwards to get some kind of compromise.

Just tell me what you'll vote for. And Domenico, sometimes I think this is one of these disconnects between where the public is and where the Congress is. Because when you look at where the country feels about some of these gun measures, I mean, the support for some stuff can be pretty overwhelming. Well, yeah, I mean, in particular, background checks, expanded background checks, you know, generally, when you ask that question, almost nine in 10 or thereabouts of people say that they're in favor of stricter background checks, including a majority of Republicans in

many polls. You know, the details of that are where people get hung up on, you know, whether you can gift a gun to friends and things like that. Some members of Congress are a little more reluctant to go there and wind up where you don't have a majority in Congress, despite the nine and 10 people who say that they're in favor of that. And that's just background checks. That is not even talking about things like assault style weapons, things that can get off lots of shots in a short amount of time, like we saw in Uvalde. There's majority support generally for reinstating that kind of ban on those kinds of weapons and high capacity magazines,

not among Republicans, but among independents and Democrats. But, you know, it's not something, again, because of that, you're going to see probably much action on. And I think for a lot of Democrats and progressives, that that is the kind of thing that is very frustrating to them, because they feel like that is the kind of measure that can prevent, you know, these kinds of mass shootings. I mean, Claudia, we should be clear, reinvigorating something like the assault weapons ban that was enacted in 94 and expired 10 years later, that's not even close to where the conversation is on Capitol Hill. What are the legislative solutions that these senators are narrowing in on. Right, right. That's true. That's not even on the table. They're looking at very limited

legislation to try to block access to guns in some cases. For example, there are a couple of bills that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has teed up to take up to background checks, bills, and this would try to close the loops in some cases. Some other conversations are looking at maybe limiting access to individuals who may be considered a danger. There is a menu of options, but it's very limited in terms of where members might go if they reach a deal. And it won't be as far reaching as Domenico was mentioning, it won't be as far reaching as a lot of folks would hope it would be. And that is frustrating for a lot of activists in favor of gun restrictions, because, you know, when you get further away from these kinds of incidents, we have seen a decline in the

percentage of people who are in favor of those kinds of restrictions and makes it that much harder to leverage any kind of pressure on lawmakers to do something. Claudia, how long should we wait before we know whether this is actually going to be a sincere legislative push or like we've said so many times in the past, nothing could get the super majority of votes it needed to pass the Senate? Right. They do have a clock on it this time. It's not going to just fade away and then it'll come back up for the next mass shooting. Murphy has asked Schumer to give him about a couple of weeks. He said time is counting down. Yesterday he said he was down to about a week and a half to try and reach a deal with Republicans. But at that point, if they don't reach a deal by that deadline, then the plan is, is they will have one of these show votes, if you will, to show where all the senators stand, those who are against an attempt at some sort of reform and those who are for it.

And we should also note, I mean, members of Congress are also starting to raise some questions about what happened in the Uvalde shooting. Some lawmakers want to know more about the timeline and why it took law enforcement so long to enter the building. Right. Those are great questions that they're asking. For example, Texas Representative Joaquin Castro has sent a letter to the FBI questioning how this timeline played out in Texas at this elementary school, how this shooter was able to be in the school for up to an hour. So all of these questions, it's a reminder of how little Congress can do in terms of legislation. But also when we look at the case of Castro and other members who want to get involved here and get the feds involved of the oversight that has to be considered here in the investigation and how this was able to play out the way it did.

All right, let's take a quick break and we'll be back in a second. And we're back. And now that the 2022 redistricting cycle is almost over, There's still a couple of states with some outstanding maps. The picture is starting to become a little clearer of what the house landscape is going to look like in 2022, and frankly, for the next decade. And I'm here to tell you all, there isn't going to be many competitive races, at least for the US House. Certainly doesn't look like for at least the next decade. Well, it's really interesting because, you know, I've been wondering about just how many

of these kinds of districts would be competitive. We're talking about the kinds of places that, you know, were close between President Biden and former President Trump in the 2020 election. You know, are there just fewer of these places because of how these districts are drawn? Or is it more than that? Yeah, I mean, it's complicated. I would say in this in the 2022 redistricting, more states than before used sort of nonpartisan commissions or nonpartisan arbiters to draw what watchdogs would say were probably fair maps in many cases. But what I was looking at specifically is the term you hear a lot, swing seats, seats that could be reasonably won by either party.

And this is a very specific metric. We look at the number of districts that were won or lost by five percentage points, a margin that's pretty narrow. So either party could in a certain type of year win that seat. At the end of this redistricting, it looks like there's only going to be about 30 of those seats for the entirety of the 435-seat house. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean other seats can't be competitive. It just means it's a lot harder for the party that doesn't hold them to win them because they're that much further out of reach. And for comparison, if you look back, I wanted to do sort of an apples to apples comparison. I looked at the 2012 redistricting and the 2002

redistricting, those first elections after the lines are redrawn. Back in 2002, there was 124 of these seats, according to the Cook Political Report. And after 2012, there was still 99. So that line has just been a straight shot in a decline. And frankly, I don't even know if it could get much lower than it is going to be for this election. It's certainly the lowest it's been in the modern political era. And it's interesting, all the changes that have happened since the last few redistrictings. And one thing I wanted to talk to you about, Sue, that I thought was so interesting is how much this tells a story about how people are living now and where they live. Yeah, I mean, it just it's easier to draw districts in some ways,

because people live closer and closer together than they ever did before. Like Democrats in particular are really clustered together in urban areas and suburban areas. So, you know, you hear so much about gerrymandering and how bad it is. But frankly, when people are living so close together, it's easier to draw lines in some way. So you have this sort of natural effect of more Republican leaning voters leaning towards more rural areas of the country, more Democratic voters leaning towards the urban areas of the country. And then you sprinkle on top the partisans in the mix trying to draw these districts who are trying to maximize their gains. So you have more safe Democratic seats and more safe Republican seats, which, you know,

frankly, a lot of times the people that draw the lines, that's exactly what they want to do. They want to make their own seats safer. I think one state, which is really good to consider how this happened, is Texas, right? Republicans controlled the redistricting process there, and they made a choice instead of making more swing seats to just shore up the Republican incumbents. So there's really no swing seats in Texas this year. There's a couple open seats that could be competitive, but they really dramatically reduced the number of seats that could reasonably be won by either party to make it a whole lot easier for Republicans to hold the state. And that's

going to make it a lot harder for Democrats to make any inroads in a state like Texas, even though the demographics of that state are changing pretty rapidly. Yeah, so big picture, I mean, this decline in the swing seats, does it mean that the fight for control of the House is less competitive or more competitive? Because we've seen some pretty big swings in the last decade or two. studied this issue of marginal districts for a long time. And he made a really good point. I mean, I think sometimes we look at this all through like sort of a negative lens, but he made a point that I thought was maybe not as negative to consider. It's like, if you looked at control of the House from roughly after World War II, there was a couple of years where Republicans had it, but roughly after World War II until 1994, Democrats controlled the House that entire time. And he made the point that like, you know, maybe that's not good for democracy either to have like one party have such a commanding majority

that the House is sort of inoculated from the national mood. But now the reverse is true. We're now living in a point where the majorities are so narrow that they're won and lost. You have a 15 seat majority, a 10 seat majority that control of the House can swing much more wildly back and forth, which isn't particularly stable. But it also means the House is actually more responsive to where the country is. And yeah, like the Congress is more polarized, but so is the country. And in some ways, the House is, I always say, it's like, it's kind of like the mirror, we're holding back up to the country of what we look like. And I think in that respect, the house is probably still pretty fair. You know, it's also interesting in terms of the impact on the vibe in the house chamber.

If you just look at it now, it's like a preview of what's to come for the next couple of years. Structurally, it just seems to make things way more partisan. I mean, Domenico, you know this even better than I do. It's like, if you take away the incentive to run in a general election and compete for voters that aren't just your own voters, you're going to be more partisan. I mean, most members of the House now, all they have to do is win a primary, and they're good in November. Well, those closed primaries are really a big piece of what a lot of people talk about when it comes to polarization and partisanship and why we sort of end up in a situation like this. being more pure toward one position or the other because there just isn't an incentive with their voters to negotiate, to be more middle of the road.

When you have brighter blue and brighter red districts, well, then you're catering to your base and your base doesn't particularly want you to compromise with the other side. All right. Well, let's take another quick break. And when we get back, it's time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back and it's time to end the show like we do every week with Can't Let It Go, the part of the show where we talk about the things from the week we can't stop thinking about politics or otherwise. Domenico, what can't you let go of this week?

Well, you know, we're all looking for ways to escape, you know, and a lot of that has come during the pandemic with Netflix because we're all stuck inside or had been. And I'm looking through Netflix and I see, you know, one of those like nature series. I'm like, this is great, right? Well, I turn it on and apparently someone else has been looking to escape and not engage in the national debates and conversations and maybe try out to be the new David Attenborough. And that's our former president, Barack Obama. Surfing hippos want to catch the waves.

Species found nowhere else on Earth. He is narrating this new series called Our National Parks, where he's not just talking about this country, but other places around the world. There's multiple portions of this. And it was just stunning to me to watch because it's the same executive producer from Blue Planet 2. Oh, wow, yeah. Which David Attenborough, the naturalist, had been the voice of, you know. And Barack Obama is basically needing a new job, I guess, because he can't be president anymore. Did you watch it? Is it any good?

I've watched like six episodes. Wow. Good work. Is he getting to go to the national parks or is he just narrating it? Because those are two different jobs. The stand-ups that this man is doing are epic. The background, the backdrops are just unbelievable. He's in Kenya.

He was in Yellowstone. I mean, any TV producer drool. Honestly, it sounds like a much better gig for a former president than what Donald Trump is doing. Still just in Twitter, trying to get on Twitter, fighting political wars. Bush and Obama. Bush is painting. Pain Bush is painting, Obama's traveling, like they're finding their zen. If I'm ever elected president, I'm going the zen route.

Exactly. Oh, yeah. It's a much healthier way to be. Claudia, what can't you let go of this week? So I'm bringing up a very old can't let it go. I did this two years ago, and I still can't let it go. It's Harry Styles. He had a tiny desk two years ago, and I still can't let it go. It's Harry Styles. He had a tiny desk two years ago, so I couldn't let him go then. I haven't been able to let him go over the pandemic,

and now he has a new album out. And I'm utterly obsessed following all the concert dates, plotting how I can get into a concert. I'm even looking at dates in Colombia near Thanksgiving. I'm going to go to the European leg. I'm even looking at dates in Colombia near Thanksgiving. I'm going to go to the European leg. I'm so obsessed. Wow. Are your girls as obsessed with him? Or are you just like the mom that's trying to drag them to the Harry Styles concert? No, I think it's equal. I think it's equal because one of my daughters said, oh, well, one said that her friend is in depression because she couldn't get Harry Styles tickets. And I said, I relate to this. I understand this. And the other one said, how about we try and go overseas?

That'll raise our odds to get into one of his concerts. So it's a- Plan a whole vacation around it. Exactly. Plan a whole vacation. Can I see you, Harry Styles? Where's Olivia Wilde? I'll hang out with her.

I don't care. And so, yeah, that's my can't let it go. I'll probably bring with her. I don't care. And so yeah, that's my Can't Let It Go. I'll probably bring it up in this segment again later. Claudia, I feel like you have really eclectic music taste because I also am vaguely recalling you had another Can't Let It Go about Rage Against the Machine and that you were a really big Rage fan. Oh, right. Oh my gosh. I do. Sometimes I think I have like my iTunes looks like Harry Reads, the late senator,

majority leader, Harry Reads, the late senator, majority leader, Harry Reads, like all these random people. I love them all. So yes, I'm down with that. I want you to make me a Spotify playlist. I want the Claudia Grisales Spotify playlist for summertime. Yes, let's do it. All right, Sue, what can you not let go of?

The thing I can't let go of this week is Barrett Golden. He is a two-year-old toddler. I'm thick in the toddler life right now. And there was a story this week that he, I want to say accidentally, but maybe it wasn't an accident, used his mom's cell phone and had 31 cheeseburgers door dashed to their house. Oh, my God. Right, I saw that. Smart kid.

His mom said she was like at home playing with him and somebody rings the doorbell and is like, here's your 31 cheeseburgers. And she's like, what? And she thought it was to the wrong house. But I just thought that was so funny because, you know, I think as a lot of parents of toddlers out there, sometimes my kid plays with my phone. And I have thought it is only a matter of time before this happens to me. I have not told my daughter this story. I do not want to give her any ideas.

But I think it's very funny. And the picture, there's a picture of the little boy, like in next to a pile of cheeseburgers eating one with like the happiest look on his face, like nailed it. So it just made me laugh. And laugh. And it was a week where I think we all needed a laugh. Yeah. I think we call that a happy meal. A happy meal. Oh, but I'm bummed. All right.

That is a wrap for today. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muttori. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our producers are Lexi Schapittle, Elena Moore, and Casey Morrell. Thanks to Brandon Carter. I'm Susan Davis. I cover Congress. I'm Claudia Grisales. I also cover Congress.

And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.