The NPR Politics Podcast - Weekly Roundup: October 8th

Episode Date: October 8, 2021

Congress reached a deal to raise the debt ceiling enough to cover the government's spending for a few more months. Anemic job growth persists. Former president Trump is holding an Iowa rally this weekend and his continued flirtation with re-election has kept the Republican primary field on ice.This episode: White House correspondent Ayesha Rascoe, congressional correspondent Kelsey Snell, chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley, Iowa Public Radio reporter Clay Masters, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.Connect:Subscribe to the NPR Politics Podcast here.Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Listen to our playlist The NPR Politics Daily Workout.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Find and support your local public radio station.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Annalisa from Seattle, Washington. It's currently Friday night, and instead of going out with my friends, I was staying up writing an essay that I turned in five minutes before the deadline. Terry, if you're listening to this, please give me a passing grade. This podcast was recorded at... It is 109 p.m. on October 8th. It's a Friday, and it's 2021. Things may have changed by the time you hear this.

Enjoy the show. I appreciate the request for a passing grade and not an A. Look, if you got it in right before the buzzer, you're going to take what they give you. Good luck. I hope it worked out. You just don't want to fail. Yes. Hey there, it's the Imperial Politics Podcast. I'm Aisha Roscoe. I hope it worked out. You just don't want to fail. Yes. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Ayesha Roscoe. I cover the White House. I'm Kelsey Snell. I cover Congress. And Scott Horsley is with us once again. Hi, Scott. Good to be with you. Scott Horsley is a chief economics correspondent at NPR. This week, there was a little bit of good news because the federal government reached a deal

so that it will be able to keep paying on its debts. The federal government is not going to default for now. So Kelsey, what exactly happened in the Senate? So the Senate reached an agreement and actually voted on this agreement and passed a bill to increase the federal debt ceiling through early December. They set a dollar cap on it, $480 billion, and that's supposed to get them through into early December. This is a Band-Aid. This is like maybe not even a Band-Aid. This is like when you just hope you stop bleeding. They are doing their very best to kind of patch things

together and avoid default without actually addressing the underlying problem, which is they are having a fight about process and about who gets to decide who is, you know, dictating the rules of passing bills in the Senate. Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, say Democrats need to use the budget process if they want to get around the filibuster and pass a debt limit suspension without the help of any Republicans. Democrats say, no, you can't tell us how to do things, number one. Number two, it's bad precedent to use the budget reconciliation to address the debt limit because it is supposed to only be used once every fiscal year. And it sets up a situation where you tie the debt limit to the budget process. The other thing that they say is that Republicans helped create the debt that is being paid for right now and should have to be the ones

voting along with Democrats to make sure that those payments go out the door, that they can't just agree to spend money or in this case, cut taxes and reduce revenues for the federal government and then not actually do the other side of that, which is make sure that the federal government can pay the bills for borrowing to support those policies. When we're talking about this deal that they reach, it's only through December. So the country could end up right back in this spot, you know, right around, right before Christmas time, right? What would happen if the government did default? Well, we don't know exactly what would happen because it's never happened before, although Congress has flirted with this disaster in the past. What we do know is that the government doesn't bring in enough money in tax revenues to cover all the commitments it's made. And so it has

to borrow the balance. And that's fine because there are plenty of people willing to lend money to the government at very low interest rates. And the government fine because there are plenty of people willing to lend money to the government at very low interest rates, and the government sets its own credit limit. So they can easily borrow more money to pay off their bills if they need to. But in this case, if Congress were just to say, or if Republicans in Congress were to say, nope, you can't borrow another penny, then suddenly the government would have to live on whatever money is coming in the door in tax revenues. And that means it wouldn't be able to pay all the people it owes money to. Among those who might not get paid include social security recipients, Medicare, health care

providers, veterans, active duty service members. So there would be folks who are expecting to get paid by the government who would not be paid, at least not on time. So that's a sort of a first level problem for the economy. Secondly, you would have shockwaves through the financial system because the financial system has always regarded government debts as absolutely rock solid, the safest investment you can make. People are willing to lend money to the government for very low interest rates because they're guaranteed they're going to get that money back as long as there is a federal government of the United States of America. If they come to think, oh, maybe the federal government of the United States of America is a deadbeat, not because it can't pay, but because it's not willing to pay,

well, suddenly those interest rates are going to go higher. That means it's going to cost the government more to borrow money, but because all the other interest rates are also pe go higher That means it's going to cost the government more to borrow money But because all the other interest rates Are also pegged to the cost of government borrowing That means if you've got a mortgage If you've got an auto loan If you've got credit card debt Your cost of borrowing will go up as well

And the long term value That the United States has derived From being the sort of gold standard Being the world's safest investment, all of that would be cast in doubt. And even though I think everybody believes that even if we go over this cliff that Congress would pretty quickly backtrack and raise the debt ceiling, that loss of trust could really do lasting damage. So this is not a game you really want to play. Another part of our economy that seems, it seems really complicated is how it's going to get back on track because we had the jobs numbers

that came out and August wasn't that great. And it was about 366,000 jobs created. That's not that great. And then this morning, there were some more numbers, and I've heard that they were not that great. No. August was a big slowdown in hiring compared to June and July, and September was slower still. And that's disappointing. U.S. employers added just 194,000 jobs last month, way less than forecasters had been expecting, and even less when you think of what was expected a few months ago. Back at the beginning of the summer, September was really expected to be a banner month for hiring for a number of reasons. Schools were going to reopen, and that was going to free up a lot of parents to go back to work. Those supplemental unemployment benefits that

some employers had blamed for keeping would-be workers on the sidelines, those ran out in early September. So it was expected that some of those folks would start hustling to go back to work. And of course, the expectation was vaccination rates would have put the pandemic in the rear view mirror by this time. Unfortunately, Delta happened. And so the job gains in September were much softer than expected. Now, there are some caveats here. There's probably some statistical noise here. The Labor Department makes some seasonal adjustments. So the number might not really be quite as bad as that headline shows. And there were some encouraging signs in things like bars and

restaurants, which added jobs in September after cutting jobs in August. That suggests people are, you know, starting to tiptoe back out into the world and spend money and eat out and travel again as the worst of the Delta wave recedes. But certainly this was a disappointing jobs report, not what the White House wanted to see, not what millions of unemployed workers wanted to see, and frankly, not what a lot of businesses wanted to see either, because there are a lot of businesses out there that say they're clamoring for workers. So we have this sort of weird situation where there's a lot of unfilled jobs, a lot of people who are not working, and it's just going to take a long time, apparently, to work out those kinks. So, Scott, one of the things that I have been seeing in the reaction,

particularly from Democrats, is they say, you know, this number is proof that people who are not showing up on the unemployment rolls, since we saw, you know, unemployment claims have dropped, that doesn't, this job proves that those people are not necessarily getting jobs. They're just not getting any benefits at all. And they're using that from a political argument to say that this is why they need to pass the Build Back Better plan and have more supports for people through the federal government. But the claim that they're making at the heart of it is that these numbers prove that people aren't going back to work. Are they right in all of this? Well, they're certainly right in that part of it. I mean, I think there can be an argument about how well-tailored the Build Back Better plan is to address this issue. But it is certainly true

that the safety net that was in place for much of the pandemic, which was expanded unemployment benefits and enhanced unemployment benefits, those ran out nationwide in the first week of September. About half the states had cut them off before that. But they're gone coast to coast now. And since the beginning of September, we've had about 7 million people drop off the unemployment rolls. Obviously, not very many of those people went back to work if we only added 194,000 jobs in the whole month of September. So there are a lot of people who are no longer collecting unemployment who have not yet started collecting a paycheck, and that's going to be a hardship for them. And Kelsey, when you talk about the congressional reaction and the Biden administration pushing their agenda, this legislative agenda

they're trying to get through. How does this, the slowing of the economy affect that? Because even though the White House will argue that their legislative plans for infrastructure and child care, et cetera, will help the economy. It doesn't necessarily help like with, you know, unemployment or people. It's not an immediate fix, right? So like, how does this affect the negotiations? You know, I'm not sure that it will make a huge difference long term in the negotiations. If anything, you know, Democrats want to use this as evidence to kind of pressure some of their own members into seeing the argument for federal assistance of other kinds, basically saying that people are going to need rental support and that people still need support for child care and still need support for education. And there is a political argument to be made that Democrats are trying to make to their own members that, you know, what the bill that they have in front of them would help alleviate other problems that are associated with the current economy. All right. Well,

I think we'll leave it there. Scott, thank you for stopping by. You know, you are just the bearer of the news, even if it's not that great, but you are great. I hope next time I'm here, the news will be a little brighter. Yes. Kelsey, you can go take a little break, take a little breather, and we're going to bring you back for Can't Let It Go. I am ready. I'm excited. I'll see you back in just a little bit. Okay. So time for a quick break. When we get back, we're going to talk about what's happening in the state of Iowa. You probably have some ideas what that means. We'll be back.

And we're back. Domenico Montanaro is here. Hey, Aisha. And so is Clay Masters of Iowa Public Radio. Hey, Aisha. So the former president, Donald Trump, is holding a rally in Iowa. And that's why we have you here, Clay. The rally is going to be at the state fairgrounds. Domenico, I know people listening may go, well, why are we talking about, you know, Trump? But the fact is, there are a lot of

people in this country that follow Trump, follow what he's doing, and they are listening to what he has to say. And by being in Iowa, we know what that is a signal of or a signal of the potential of, right? Totally. And, you know, he is the front runner for the 2024 Republican nomination if he decides to run. And going to a state like Iowa certainly signals that he at least wants to tease it. And, you know, a lot of people might say, well, don't report on something if it's not actually happening. Well, again, this is politics. He's the frontrunner for that nomination if he wants it. And he continues to dictate the message on Capitol Hill with his endorsements around the country as well.

That's the thing. He is not the president anymore, but he is still, in many ways, the head of the Republican Party. And Clay, I wanted to talk to you about who is going to be at this rally, because it is a who's who of the Republicans in Iowa, right? Yeah, that's right. I mean, Governor Kim Reynolds, she has not officially announced she's running for reelection next year, but she's going to be there. Two members of the House of Representatives, Ashley Hinson and Marianette Miller Meeks, are both going to be speaking ahead of the former president. And also U.S. Senator Chuck, when, you know, the kind of gold standard poll in Iowa, the Iowa poll out this month, says that the former president is actually more popular in the state now after leaving office than any other poll that they've done on him. Yeah, well, you know, two things about this. First of all, you know, I think Grassley running at 88, certainly laying the groundwork for Biden to run, makes him look like a spring chicken in comparison. And they both – I love that they both like to show how active they still are. Yeah, do some push-ups.

Biden with the biking, Grassley with the push-ups and the actual running. The other thing to consider though about Trump in Iowa, he won the state. It's really moved more Republican. It had been a swing state. Obama had won it twice, but Trump won it by a It's really moved more Republican. It had been a swing state. Obama had won it twice, but Trump won it by a significant margin, you know, by nine points in 2020. So, you know, this is a place where he has a lot of potential support. One thing about, you know, obviously everyone looks to Iowa and, you know, Lord help us,

we're talking about 2024. the the thing about Trump being there and Trump playing around with this idea of running is that it basically freezes the Republican field right like it makes everything very um difficult for anyone else to try to get breathing room. Like, I would think that would be the case, Clay, like that it's hard for people to get breathing room if you have the former president running around. People are still going to be coming here and they are. I mean, y'all left Iowa a long time ago and the potential presidential candidates didn't wait too long before they started coming here again. I mean, we've already seen former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. I mean, they come to

these fundraisers, they speak. That's nothing new. People are still going to be testing the waters. But, you know, it does really freeze how much infrastructure do they lay in the state if the former president is't do it if Trump is in the way because he is that colossal figure within the Republican Party. And you had somebody like Haley recently say that she's going to talk to Trump about what her plans are and what he doesn't. They're going to make a decision together. It's really striking to me that even after all this time that these folks don't realize that Trump is out for Trump. He's not loyal to any of the other Republicans and he's going to run if he thinks he can win, most likely. If he doesn't, then he probably won't run. That's the sense I get from a lot of people I speak to in Trump world and other Republicans that he – that's to run, right? Even though that's been walked back now, because they thought that Biden was going to be permanently damaged from the exit in Afghanistan. But instead, his numbers have started to bounce back as that has receded from the headlines. So I still think it's probably 50-50 for what Trump is going to do. And he's gonna look to tease it because he knows it's

good ratings. And it seems like regardless of how any of these other Republican hopefuls may feel about Trump or feel about his loyalty, there is a loyalty of the Republican base to Trump that they cannot ignore or get away from, right? Like they have to, their base believes in Trump, they believe in the things he says about the elections, and they believe about the last election, you know, not being legitimate, even though that's not true. So that forces Republicans to have to dance with Trump like that if they want to keep their base happy. Right. Like this is this is something that they have to different town halls. I mean, I was at Chuck Grassley's last stop of his 99-county tour that he does every year. And there were two questions that came up about just asking him, you know, what are we going to do about this last election? And, you know, I don't feel like in my heart that this was a fair election. And Grassley has to kind of walk this walk, as you're saying, where he can't just shoot

down what they're saying because so much of the base has bought into these false claims. You know, the thing is with this dance that Trump is doing, you know, he's pushing out this message that the election was stolen from him because it gives him this easy exit ramp to not say that he lost the election, even though it wasn't stolen, even though this is a lie that he continues to tell. But what he winds up doing is sticking that to every other Republican who winds up running for office. So, you know, there's a lot of time between now and when somebody would have to announce for 2024. But remember, there's an election between now and then, and that's next year in 2022. And this is really becoming a litmus test for a lot of the other Republican

candidates and whether they believe the election was stolen. And the more that they get asked about that, the more polarizing of an answer that becomes, because that just doesn't play well in the suburbs where there's a lot of swing districts. And that speaks to the point that Aisha was asking at the outset of this conversation. I mean, we're seeing a lot of the Republican Party leaders in the state, politicians in the state, they're going to be sharing that stage with the former president here in Des Moines. All right. Well, let's leave it there. Clay Masters of Iowa Public Radio, thank you for stopping by. And I guess we'll be seeing more of you as we get closer to 2024.

We'll see, right? Time will tell. We'll see how the Iowa caucuses hold up, right? Yes. And it's not, I'm not, if I sound sad, it's not about you. It's about how quickly this campaign season is coming along. Yeah, try being here. Try being here.

We'll see if it winds up being the Iowa primaries. Okay, we're going to take a quick break. And when we get back, it's time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back. And Kelsey Snell has come back to join us for Can't Let It Go. I can't let go of the fun, so I am back. She is back. You can't get rid of me. And Domenico Montanaro is still here. And so we are going to end the show like we do every week with Can't Let It Go. The part of the

show where we talk about the things from the week that we just can't stop talking about politics or otherwise the things that we just can't let go of. Okay. And this week we're going to start with Domenico. What can't you let go of? Well, I'm going to start with the Treasury Department's new question as they stand on a street corner in Washington, D.C. Can you spare some change? Okay. Okay. Apparently, the Treasury Department, there's the potential idea of minting a trillion dollar coin as a way, as an end run around the debt ceiling, which makes zero sense to me. I don't understand it.

I don't understand it either. They would basically just take an already created design. They would make it a platinum eagle and they would just slap a trillion dollars on it and basically have enough money to raise the debt ceiling. But a trillion dollars doesn't get you too far in the amount of money that is being spent.

Actually, Scott Horsley and I had a conversation about this just the other day. You did, because maybe you can explain it to me, and maybe you can also explain to me. Did you ask Scott what happens if you drop the coin? It falls in like a subway grate or something? I should clarify, we had a conversation, but I did not walk away having any greater understanding of how this would work. The one thing he did tell me, though, is that a trillion dollar coin wouldn't cut it. It has to be closer to like five trillion dollars.

So maybe you need five one trillion dollar coins or one. Domenico, what would you buy with a trillion dollar coin? Oh, let me tell you something. First, the biggest problem I would have with a trillion dollar coin is how to break it. Well, I want to be like what Scrooge McDuck with the trillion dollar coins in the vault. That would be like, oh my goodness. Then we could just ask you to throw us 20 of them and we could pay off our debt. Exactly.

Problem solved. Problem solved. Problem solved. Start making the coins. We're solving problems over here at the NPR Politics. It's over. Done. So we got it. We got it together. Okay.

So we solved that. Now, Kelsey, what can't you let go of? Well, it is the spooky season here. Okay. And so I have decided that I cannot let go of the idea that some random people decided that they found the Zodiac Killer, but presented some really kind of, I don't know, not that amazing evidence. It's like, I was in a meeting and I come out of the meeting, I look on Twitter and the

Zodiac Killer is trending. I'm like, why is, what the? And you thought it was about Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz thought it was about Ted Cruz, apparently. He tweeted about it. One more was about Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz thought it was about Ted Cruz, apparently. He tweeted about it. One more troll of Ted Cruz. So it's this group of 40 former law enforcement investigators. Did they find him in Cancun?

They think it's this guy who died, but they name the man. And they present all of these photos of him. And they're like, look, this guy has forehead wrinkles, just like the drawing has forehead wrinkles. I'm like, I have forehead wrinkles? Like, was it me? Are you confessing to something here, Kelsey? I'm a little concerned. But I just love the idea that there was, like, all this breaking news for an entire day.

Actually, for, like, most of a week about the idea that they had like figured out who the zodiac killer is and then if you dig deeper it's just like some 40 dudes who are hanging out being like well i did some googles and i'm pretty sure that this is our man i thought it was like dna evidence it wasn't like dna evidence that connected him or anything they say that they have new physical and forensic evidence but like when they when people have reached out to the San Francisco Police Department, who actually has an open case file on this, they're like, we don't have new information here. All right, Aisha, what about you? What is on your mind? This is the thing that everyone has been talking about, and it is who is the bad art friend, a.k.a. the kidney story. Yep, yep, yep.

Okay. What? I don't know this thing. Who is the bad art friend? This is in the New York Times Magazine. Okay, so if you don't want spoilers, don't listen to this. Turn your radio off.

Turn off. You've reached the end of the podcast. Yes, but still give us a good rating. I love spoilers because I don you've reached the end of the podcast yes but still but still give us a good rating i love spoilers because i don't have to do any of the work so basically there's this writer's circle this is my synopsis there's this writer's circle right and there's this lady don dorland she gives her kidney but she doesn't know who it goes to she's just like i'm a giving person. Right.

She's like advertising. She's like, look at how great I am. And she's put it on Facebook and stuff. And there's this other woman who she think is her friend. And emphasis on think. Sonya did not make no comments on the Facebook post about the kidney. About her giving away a kidney. And so she ended up reaching out to Sonia like,

I think you know that I gave a kidney away, right? And I haven't heard from you. And Sonia like, really? Sonia was pretending like she didn't know nothing about it. But it turned out that Sonia had written a short story that was remarkably similar to what Don Dorland the person who gave her kidney had written on Facebook wasn't the upshot that she was like I don't want you stealing my story because I might want to tell my story like I just not you she didn't want her to profit off of that? The context for it seems that Don wants to be a writer

and Sonia is a successful writer or is getting success in her writing and Don is not. And then Sonia, not only does she do that, she turns around, acts like she doesn't even know Don, and writes something. And she was going to get awards for this short story. Like, she was, like, winning stuff for this short story. Some jealousy.

I'm just going to put it out there that, like, anytime I tell you guys a good story or, like, slack you something funny, it's mine, and I'm taking credit for it. You're taking, no. But see, then, but the, and I think the problem is, too, that Sonya acted like she didn't know Don. She acted like, we not friends. And I think that's what really hurt, you know, Don. But it's just, it's too much.

The important takeaway from today's podcast is nobody's your friend. Nobody's your friend. And even if they give you a kidney, they not your friend. All right. That's a wrap for today. Our executive producer is Shirley Henry. Our editors are Mathani Matori and Eric McDaniel. Our producers are Barton Girdwood and Elena Moore. Thanks to Lexi Shapiro and Brandon Carter. I'm Aisha Roscoe. I cover the White House. I'm Kelsey Snell. I cover Congress.

And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.