The NPR Politics Podcast - Weekly Roundup: September 18th

Episode Date: September 18, 2020

A steady presidential race remains steady: Joe Biden's lead is in the high single-digits nationally. But Trump's messaging tying Joe Biden to socialism is finding purchase with Latino voters in Florida, a state that is essential to the president's re-election effort.This episode: congressional correspondent Susan Davis, campaign reporter Juana Summers, White House reporter Franco Ordoñez, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.Connect:Subscribe to the NPR Politics Podcast here.Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Listen to our playlist The NPR Politics Daily Workout.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Find and support your local public radio station.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Sarah in Portland, Oregon, where it is finally raining, and I'm celebrating by taking the dog for a walk without a respirator for the first time in a week. This podcast was recorded at 12.05 p.m. on Friday, September 18th. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but we'll still be here waiting to see what 2020 throws next at Portland, Oregon. All right, here's the show. I bet they've never been happier to see rain out there. Right?

And I'm really thinking of those guys. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover Congress. I'm Juana Summers. I cover the campaign. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And guys, before we get started, a bit of a milestone for the podcast. Today is our 275th daily episode. So happy anniversary. Wow, we're about to hit you with some more numbers. Well, exactly right, because we've got a new poll out today from NPR, PBS NewsHour and Marist College. So Domenico, as our as our poll guru, what what are the top lines? Well, this thing runs the gamut of all the issues that you know, most people are caring about. In fact, we even asked about issues, which was interesting as well. But when you look at the

horse race, we're looking at the presidential election between President Trump and Joe Biden, the former vice president, the Democratic nominee. Biden leads Trump by nine points, 52 to 43 among likely voters. This is the first time that the survey has screened for likely voters this cycle. And got to tell you, our remarkably consistent presidential race continues to be remarkably consistent because registered voters, it was a 10 point lead for Biden, mostly unchanged from last month. Really, it's about the same number that we've seen for the last several months. Domenico, you talked about likely voters. Can you explain exactly what that is? And why is it different than registered voters in polling? Well, this is sort of the secret sauce of polling.

We try to figure out who actually is going to vote or most likely to vote. We ask it in a way that is has to do with some level of enthusiasm. That's what all pollsters kind of do. We ask the likelihood, how likely is it that you will go vote? And, you know, that's an important thing. Because if you're asking people in these polls, all these questions, and they don't actually intend to vote, well, then you're obviously your poll, you know, is getting something, but it's not measuring who's actually going to turn out. So let's talk about some of the demographic breakdown in here. First, I think about President Trump's base, mainly white voters. Where are they coming down?

Well, the surprising thing here is that Joe Biden is overperforming with white voters and underperforming with non-white voters. What we saw here in this poll, really surprising, second month in a row. I didn't know if it was an outlier last month, but Biden is getting 49% of white voters in our poll, which is just, if you follow politics closely, is mind-boggling, head-exploding stuff because no Democratic presidential nominee has gotten that high, even all the way back to Carter. Carter got 48% in that election of white voters. Democrats usually need to get around 40% in order to do well overall because they have such strong support with non-white voters. The difference here, though, Biden underperforming pretty dramatically with Latinos,

we didn't have enough Latinos and African Americans in our poll to break it out among likely voters. But when the pollsters looked inside the numbers, that underperformance is really mostly with Latinos. And he's doing about what other Democrats have done with black voters so far. Can we talk stick a little bit with white voters for a second? I'm just so curious, what types of white voters do we see Joe Biden performing strongly with compared to what we see with the president? White voters with a college degree are overwhelmingly flocking to the former vice president. This is a trend that we've seen continue. Suburban voters, especially suburban women, two thirds of them are in Joe Biden's camp.

And this has been pretty consistent. And that's a real problem for President Trump. Look at independents, for example. Biden is winning likely independent voters by 21 points. That is humongous because, you know, President Trump, when he was candidate, Trump won independent voters very narrowly over Hillary Clinton. And any Republican generally needs to win independence to be able to win in the election because so many Republicans have started to identify as independents over the last decade. Biden's also really been able to eat into the president's margin among older voters, senior voters, and that still holds, right?

Yeah, it's a reversal from 2016. You have Biden winning a majority of those voters 65 and older. And last time around, it was President Trump who won a majority of those voters 65 and over. Domenico, do you have any thoughts on why we've seen President Trump's support among seniors slide? Well, there are all kinds of theories on this. You know, I mean, Coronavirus is one thing that a lot of people have talked about, given the fact that older, the older population is more vulnerable. The other thing is, Biden's a pretty well known name, and he's campaigned for a long time. for these kinds of voters. The way he talks about

issues is pretty traditional, and something that appeals to apparently is appealing to them more so than President Trump's message. Domenico, one thing I've been really curious about as we are now months into the grappling with the coronavirus pandemic is how that's showing up in polling and what people are actually thinking about how we might recover from this pandemic, whether or not they'll take a vaccine. Are we getting any hints of that here? Yeah, we are seeing that in this poll. When we asked about the coronavirus pandemic, and when people think things are going to get back to normal, more than two thirds said that they think it's going to take six months or more.

Now, what's interesting about that, the last time we asked this question was back in May, and that was four months ago when people also said they thought it would take six months or more. So people's timelines are really sliding here. When you look at who's better to handle some of these issues, comparing President Trump to Joe Biden on coronavirus and race relations. Pretty strong majorities are saying that they would prefer to see Biden handle those things. Even on crime, Biden edges out Trump 49 to 45. And the one place where President Trump continues to be strongest

is on the economy. Among likely voters, 50% said that they would rather President Trump handle the economy than Joe Biden, who got 46%. What are the public attitudes towards the vaccine? Well, this is what's pretty stunning, because last time we asked this question, 60% said that they would get vaccinated. 35% said they would not. And I thought the 35% was pretty high of people saying that they wouldn't. Guess what? The 60% has dropped to 49% now. Less than half of Americans now say that they're going to get vaccinated when one is

made available. 44% say that they won't. And this largely comes from a 13-point decline in the number of independents saying that they'll get vaccinated. They've gone from 61 to 48%. And Republicans have gone up 10 points and saying that they won't from 44 to 54%. We're also seeing a decline in trust in public health experts, even though 69% of Americans say they trust public health experts, the highest for any of the groups, including President Trump, only about a third of people say that they trust what's coming from the President of the United States, which is stunning. Mostly, we've seen Republicans moving away from trusting public health experts, and they've gone down 15 points since March. What's the latest on views towards Black Lives Matter and sort of the ongoing

racial justice protests in the country? Well, we've really seen a change in support. You know, you had overwhelming support, 62% support for the protests, saying that they were mostly legitimate as opposed to people mostly acting unlawfully. But that dropped in August to 53%, and now it's at 48%. So a real split with Americans on that. And you're seeing the unfavorable ratings of Black Lives Matter continue to go up, even though you have a majority of Americans overall saying they have a favorable impression of Black Lives Matter, 54%. You're now seeing 40% say that they have an unfavorable one. And almost all of that movement

is due to Republicans. OK, well, let's take a quick break. Juana, we're going to let you go, but I'm going to bring you back in in a little bit for Can't Let It Go. Because when we come back, Franco, he's down in Florida and he's going to tell us what he's hearing on the ground from voters. Support for NPR and the following message come from You Studio. You Studio securely hosts, manages and distributes company content to employees, partners, and customers through audio and video podcasts. Train remotely, broadcast town halls, share product updates, and more. Plus, you can control user access and monitor engagement.

See why companies like Nike, IBM, and AT&T trust U-Studio. Go to theletterustudio.com today for your free 30-day trial. On Facebook, there are these three brothers who love guns, say guns are overregulated, say the NRA is too quick to compromise. And they're gaining more followers every day. They're very in-your-face and offensive, and by God, I love them for it. Listen now to the No Compromise podcast from NPR. And we're back and we're joined by White House correspondent Franco Ordonez, who's down in Florida. And we're also joined by my neighbor's lawnmower who decided to start mowing their lawn during the podcast. I apologize for that. But Franco, it's good to have you on the pod. How's

that Florida weather? It's nice and humid. It's kind of cool to be hanging with the palm trees. So you're down in Florida talking to voters. What are they telling you? Well, you know, I'm here talking with Latinos specifically about how they're feeling about the election. You know, Domenico touched on some of this about how Trump is making inroads with Latino voters. And I've been talking to Cuban, Venezuelan, Colombian voters about all those kind of things and how, including some people who earlier voted for Obama and now support President Trump. It just kind of speaks to how

Latinos are not a monolithic group. Like what is the issue with Latino voters and Joe Biden, where they seem to trust him less than they trusted Hillary Clinton in 2016? On the issues, consistently, Biden is underperforming with Latinos. Latinos, you know, just as I said, you know, they're not a monolithic group. And here in Florida, South Florida, particularly, you know, so much of the community, more than half are immigrants. And so many of them are of Cuban descent, of Venezuelan descent, of Colombian descent. And particularly the Cuban and the Venezuelans, they came from countries that were socialist countries, from communist countries. So President Trump's message to them, you know, this repeated talk about socialism and communism, you know, resonates with them here.

They are very concerned about those things. They're so dialed in to what's happening back home, say in Venezuela and the problems there. And, you know, there's a big feeling that they just don't want to take any chances that that could happen here. You know, I've been spending time outside, you know, Colombian and Venezuelan restaurants, and I've been talking with people. You know, I've been spending time outside, you know, Colombian and Venezuelan restaurants, and I've been talking with people. I mean, I spoke with a woman, Katy Chiquito. She was on her way to get some coffee at a, you know, buy a Colombian bakery in Doral. You know, she's telling me very bluntly that, you know, this is all part of a political game and that people, you know, frankly, are just not paying close enough attention.

They're not doing their research. And that, you know, activists are taking advantage of that. And people just end up forwarding that information over and over again. But I have seen, and unfortunately, the people doesn't make it their own search. They just believe the lie that they saw in Fable, like, is it true? And just to clarify, she said there at the end that they believe the lies that they're seeing on Facebook and they're passing it on. And she goes on to say, you know, in the comment sections, you can see it, that, you know, some people are saying it's true. Other people are saying it's a lie. But by then, it's already been forwarded so many times. So she says the damage is already done.

So do you get the sense that the disinformation is being, is effective, that it's working? Well, you know, there has been a lot of misinformation going on down here on, you know, Facebook, on social media outlets, as well as on, you know, some Spanish language media. And it's a lot of messages from groups promoting QAnon and also delivering racist and anti-Semitic messages kind of tied to the Black Lives Matter movement. And I've spoken with a few people here about that. I spoke to Ricardo Dagger. He's originally from Colombia. We spoke in Doral. And he basically told me that he was really surprised that friends were believing these kind of posts and they were forwarding them along.

There is this whole campaign of misinformation, and I'm very surprised to see how it has actually taken hold on people that I know very well and that are very rational people to an extent. He continued on telling me that people actually believe that if Biden is elected, that the United States will soon look more like Cuba or Venezuela. And, you know, I wouldn't say that a lot of people believe this, but some do. And it may only need to be a few. There's at least it sows enough doubt that I think it's raising questions about whether some of these longtime residents will vote for Biden.

And as we've talked about, Florida is so important. It's all about the margins. And a few, you know, few thousand could make a difference. Yeah, Florida is like a 1% state. You know, it's always decided by really, really small margins in presidential. So every vote literally does count in a state like that. Does immigration come up as an issue at all among Latino voters? It just surprises me that President Trump would have more support than he did in 2016,

considering so many of his immigration policies have been really harsh towards Latino communities. No, it's no doubt a big issue. But, you know, voters here in South Florida are different from, you know, Latino voters, say, in Arizona and Texas. In Arizona and Texas, you know, a lot of the immigrant families there are from Guatemala. They're from Mexico. They're from central other countries in Central America. Many of those households, the voters are mixed voter families where you have some undocumented immigrants living with people who came generations before. So those issues are very top of mind for them. Here in South Florida, yes, it's an issue of concern. Obviously,

the rhetoric against immigrants and of Latinos certainly kind of hurts people here, but their focus more is on the economy and also, again, the socialism issues and the communism issues. And they see in President Trump someone who has taken a very hard line on the governments of Cuba and the Castro government, as well as the Venezuelan government, the government of Nicolas Maduro. What is the message that activists on the ground on the Democratic side feel like Biden could be making that they feel like he's not? I've spoken with some members of the campaign campaign as well as Democrats who are here. And one, the big concern is that they haven't invested the amount of time

and money here. It's, you know, I was speaking with a state senator here who just talked about presence, is that the Republicans have made a presence here in South Florida and that the Democrats have not been on the ground as much. They point to kind of Obama and what he did back in 2008 and 2012, made a very strong effort to be here and to remain here over the years, to kind of always have that campaign machine going. They say basically that Trump has kind of taken that roadmap and used it for his campaign while the Democrats, some of the, you know, activists argue, is now kind of like trying to parachute in, you know, just a couple months from the election. And they say that doesn't necessarily work. Now I will say that, you know, the Democrats and the campaigns are happy to now see, you know, Biden as well as Kamala Harris coming down and showing themselves and making a strong effort.

But they would have liked it more sooner. But there's no question they are trying to spend a lot more money and a lot more resources here in South Florida and Florida overall, as you point and as you pointed out, because it's so important. But that's my question. I mean, Florida has a very complicated electoral history in the in the path to 270. And I wonder, in 2020, how critical is the outcome in Florida to the outcome overall? Well, I think number one, you know, Florida is critical, you know, to the pathway, especially for President Trump. I mean, without Florida, you know, President Trump could win, but it is a very, very narrow path to be able to do so. Almost every strategist you talk to will say that Florida, Florida, Florida

is still the case for President Trump. Being able to put Arizona on the map for Democrats, being able to kind of win back the former blue wall states would be able to put Arizona on the map for Democrats, being able to kind of win back the former blue wall states would be enough to put some combination of those would be enough to put Biden over the top of 270 without having to win Florida. At the same time, Democrats know that with Florida, as much as the state is sort of like five different states and very expensive to advertise in, It's one of the big six states that Democrats are focused in on. And they know that if they can pull it off and win in Florida, then it's almost a checkmate. All right, Franco, we're gonna let you get back

to your reporting. I hope you at least get a chance to stick your feet in the ocean before you come back. Thank you. Let's take a quick break. And when we get back time for can't let it go. Support for NPR and the following message come from Rothy break. And when we get back, time for Can't Let It Go. edition is their first adjustable sneaker, the Lace Up. Seamlessly knit for no break-in period, Rothy's come with free shipping, free returns, and free exchanges. Check out all the shoes and bags available now at rothys.com slash weekly. The way things are going right now, even if you can keep track of what's happening in the news, it's hard to know why it's happening, what it really means. That's why we have created a daily podcast that answers your questions about the news in about 10 minutes every weekday.

It's called Consider This, new episodes every weekday afternoon from NPR. And we're back and it's time for Can't Let It Go, where we talk about the thing we just can't stop thinking about this week, politics or otherwise. Juana, what can't you let go this week? Oh my gosh. So this has nothing to do with politics at all. Thank God. I am thinking a lot about American Girl dolls. Yes.

A little bit of a throwback. They announced a new doll this week, and I'm pretty much obsessed with it, even though I'm too old to be playing with toys. Maybe. I don't know. Her name's Courtney. She's from the 80s. So she's got her little kit and caboodle, acid wash jeans skirt. And the thing that I'm really excited about is that she's a gamer girl. So if you've seen any of the promo pictures, guys, she actually they are selling a working arcade cabinet of Pac-Man. Apparently in her story, she is one of the top scoring Pac-Man players in her local arcade. And another really cool thing about this is they're doing a partnership with Girls Who Code. So they're actually doing some financial contributions to them. And that's a group if you haven't heard of them, that works at getting more women into technology and closing

that huge gender gap. So I'm super pumped about this. And I'm also gonna admit, I'm probably gonna buy the working Pac Man game, because it'll go really well with the working American Girl pinball machine that I bought earlier this year at the beginning of COVID. I was gonna say this seems right up your alley, because aren't you like a pinball wizard? That is true. If our listeners do not know, I'm a competitive pinball player. So I, like Courtney, spend far too much time in arcades normally. And that's the thing I miss most with being trapped in our houses right now. Now, do you want to get this American Girl doll? I don't think I'm going to get the doll because I think I might be too old for the doll. But I don't think I'm too old for the working arcade cabinet. I think that I think that fits well in my game room at home. I think that works for me.

Domenico, what can't you let go this week? Well, what I can't let go of this week was just a small piece of Jared Kushner's interview with the Today Show. You know, he was asked not only about this Mideast Peace deal that he was supposed to be shepherding, but also about the Bob Woodward tapes. And he said this. And again, he's got tapes of everything. I have tapes of everything. He's got tapes of everything. I've got tapes of everything. And I went, wait, what? What? You have tapes of everything? I mean, I'm just imagining that somewhere, Jared Kushner's got like an archive of every

conversation he's had with President Trump. You know, all of a sudden, your head goes back to Nixon recording everything. And you're like, is this a thing that exists? Or was he just sort of blowing some smoke? I don't know. Did anybody follow up with that? No, they thought Twitter followed up quite significantly. Yeah, but I am curious to see if he's writing like a book or something. And maybe he's gonna use some of those tapes. And if they'll ever become public, maybe one day we'll have the Kushner tapes like we have the Nixon tapes. Yeah, I wonder if you can actually FOIA that.

I assume that they should be allowed to, they should go to archives given he has an official role. It sounds like you just gave yourself an assignment. Let's see, in 10, 15 years, maybe we'll have a clue. Sue, what can't you let go this week? So the thing I can't let go is two lines in Sarah Huckabee Sanders new memoir out this week have you guys heard about this she's got in her in her book which I guess if you have that job she was the White House spokeswoman I think if you do that

job you have to write a book these days she recalls her time in the White House and there's this scene in it in which she says just two lines in the book that she's in the Oval Office with Hope Hicks, who was also in the communication shop at the time. And the president tells them that he wants to add to his music rally playlist Guns N' Roses, November Rain. You guys know the song? Do. So then he tells them he wants this added to his rally list. And then he tells them it is, quote, the greatest music video of all time. And then the president then proceeds to make Hope Hicks and Sarah Huckabee Sanders watch the entirety of the November Rain music video in the Oval Office. Can you help me out here for a second?

I have actually never seen this music video before. I know the song, not familiar with the video. Part of what makes it so epic at the time is it's like so long. Like that's what makes it so awkward to have your boss sit there and make you watch an entire music video. It's like 10 minutes long. It's like a mini movie. And it's this like whole saga of a wedding gone wrong and a life gone awry. I highly recommend watching it because it is like a weird piece of perfect 90s music video art. But the reason I can't let it go is I really related to this because earlier this year, during the pandemic, I fell down a Guns N' Roses rabbit hole on one of these like boring stuck at home days. And I have the receipts to prove it because I went back when

I saw this anecdote in the book, I went back and searched my text messages. And an April 7th text chain that I have with three of my brothers, I just texted them. Related to nothing, I fell down a Guns N' Roses music video rabbit hole yesterday and highly recommend it if you need a random time suck. The Patience video and the November Rain in particular are pretty amazing and hilarious 25 years later. And the thing I realized is I would probably be the boss that makes their employees sit in the office and watch the November rain video with them. Sue, I don't know that I'm working for you anytime soon. I got to be honest here.

That's what I mean. But it honestly might be the thing that I most related to President Donald Trump with. I'm like, yeah, you know, it was a pretty epic music video. And it just cracks me up that the president actually made his staff sit there and watch it. All right. Well, that is a wrap for today. Our executive producer is Shirley Henry. Our editors are Mathoni Matori and Eric McDaniel. Our producers are Barton Girdwood and Chloe Weiner.

Thanks to Lexi Schapittle, Elena Moore, Dana Farrington and Brandon Carter. Our intern is Kalyani Saxena. I'm Susan Davis. I cover Congress. I'm Juana Summers. I cover the campaign. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast. And a special thanks to our funder, The Little Market, for helping to support this podcast.