The NPR Politics Podcast - Weekly Roundup: Wednesday, September 11

Episode Date: September 11, 2019

Republican Dan Bishop eked out a victory in a closely watched North Carolina special congressional election on Tuesday night. A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds Elizabeth Warren on the rise, but many voters think Trump is still likely to win re-election. Plus, Congress can't decide on gun legislation yet voters want reform of some kind. This episode: political reporter Danielle Kurtzleben, political reporter Jessica Taylor, political editor Domenico Montanaro and congressional correspondent Susan Davis. Email the show at [e-mail]. Find and support your local public radio station at npr.org/stations.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey NPR, this is Stacey calling from Charlotte, North Carolina, where I am out knocking doors for the last time in the North Carolina 9th District special election. What do we say after this? I forget sometimes too. Yeah. Yeah. What we say after this is that this podcast was recorded at 1.09 p.m. on September 11th, 2019.

Things may have changed by the time you hear this. All right, here's the show, and hopefully by the time it's on, I'll be all done canvassing for 2019. Bye. Well, there's Virginia. Wait, what? I mean, she could go to, like, another state. Oh, yeah, that's true.

There are other elections. I hope she got home. And Mississippi and Kentucky, Louisiana. There we go. It's always election cycle. Speaking of which, hello. It is the NPR Politics Podcast. I am Danielle Kurtzleben.

I cover politics. I'm Susan Davis. I cover Congress. I'm Jessica Taylor. I also cover politics. And I'm Domenica Montanaro, political editor. And we are coming to you with an early weekly roundup this week. A midweek roundup, as it were,

because tomorrow we have yet another Democratic debate, another late night where we will be putting out yet another podcast in your feed. So we thought we'd throw this out there early. So let's start with the news that Stacey there from North Carolina hinted at, which is the North Carolina special election last night. In the 9th Congressional District of North Carolina, we had this long-awaited race. And Jess, I know you have been covering this very closely. Tell us very quickly what happened last night. So this was actually the final race of 2018. So we are finally done with the midterms only 10 months later. This run-up has felt crazy long to this race. Yeah. So Stacey there didn't say who she was canvassing for, but

I'll tell you right now that Dan won. So it was a battle between the Dan's. Right. Yes, it was a Dan off. Yes. So Dan Bishop was the Republican candidate. He was a state senator. And then you had Democrat Dan McCready, a Marine Corps veteran. And he'd actually been running for over two years. In fact, he had a kid that wasn't even born yet. He started running and the kid is now two. So that shows how long this race has been happening. So this is this election was in the Charlotte suburbs, but taking in some rural areas. really strong evidence of election fraud, ballot fraud, where the Republican candidate back last November was Mark Harris. And one of his aides had been found to be tampering with absentee ballots. So the State Board of Elections actually threw out the result, ordered a new election. And so

we finally have this election. This is the last uncalled race of 2018. And we should say that Dan McCready, the Democrat who ran last night, also was the Democrat who ran in 2018. Yes, he lost by 905 votes last time. Right. And he actually lost by an even slightly larger margin. But Republicans did win this seat by about two points. So Dan Bishop beat Dan McCready by about two points. But, I mean, this is a district that Republicans have held for over half a century. And President Trump won this district by 12 points. So you can just see that this is the type of district that is trending Democrats way. But what I saw when I looked at these results was we could see a furthering urban-rural divide.

So what exactly did the election results tell you about that divide? So the story of 2018 was, of course, the suburbs. We saw this massive backlash to President Trump in the suburbs. And in the Charlotte suburbs there, which is where the bulk of this district is and where the voting bloc was, McCready actually did much better than he did in 2018 by about three points. But if he had held that, he actually would have won. But we saw an erosion in some other rural areas that he'd actually done pretty

well in, including one really rural, really sort of economically challenged county, Robeson County. And he'd actually won this by 15 points last time. And he actually only won it by one point. And this is a heavily African American district, heavily. There's a Lumbee tribe of Native Americans there. And so it tells me that that this rural divide is still still very pronounced that Republicans have problems in the suburbs, but that Democrats still have major problems in more rural blue collar areas. It doesn't, you know, ultimately Republican win, Republican wins, Republican district isn't as much of a surprise, but it does seem like there are signs of things going on in this district and what happened in this race that parties are

learning lessons from. And one of the things that I've heard Democrats up on the Hill talking about today is one of the factors in their loss, even though it was clearly an uphill battle in that district, was that black turnout wasn't very high. And there is a you know, that's one of the big questions of 2020. If you can't motivate and turn out black voters, they are really make or break in so many close races. The fact that Dan Bishop, the Republican, went into this election essentially hugging Trump, being the Trump candidate, and was able to win in a place that had a lot of suburban vote, I think surprised a lot of people. And also I think tells you that the president certainly has a lot of juice still with that section of the vote. And I wonder if we're seeing a real reshaping here. It may be something that the Trump campaign feels like could help him squeeze out another win.

But it's certainly going to be really difficult if that's the case for Republicans to take back the House if they can't win in the suburbs. Right. Well, and this gets at a really broad question, which is that after every single special election since Trump was elected as president, you know, there was the one in Georgia between John Ossoff and Karen Handel comes to mind. There have been a few of these. Every single one next day is like hot take fest where every pundit goes out and says, here's what this means for Trump's reelection. And I'm opening this up to you guys like I'm not convinced that this how about how much this says about 2020. Are there tea leaves here? And there's a consistency with those hot takes. The fact was Democrats overperformed in all of those special elections. And then they wound up winning the back the House with getting a net of 40 seats. So they did have some indication

of what would happen in 2018. The difference with 2020 is that this is a different choice that voters face. It's not just voting for a generic Republican or a generic Democrat in your House district or your incumbent congressional representative. It's President Trump's name on the ballot. And remember, President Obama faced that same issue where he won election twice and lost a thousand state legislative seats and lost dozens of House seats. I think it's always good to be really skeptical about drawing grand conclusions from one special election, especially one with so many weird twists and turns.

This was like a special, special election. But I think Jess hits on a really good point, too, is it is a lesson and a reminder just in terms of the president's popularity and his ability to still enthuse and turn out a vote is not something that can be taken for granted, not just in this election. But I also think one thing we're all looking at in 2020 is North Carolina writ large. This is a state that is probably going to be a swing state. It's going to be a battleground state in 2020. And it's got a competitive Senate race.

And it's one of these states that has a huge shifting demographic alliance. So there's just a lot going on in that state that I think it's being watched as sort of an incubator for these bigger national trends. Speaking of 2020, let's broaden this out from one district in North Carolina to nationally because we have some new data today. We have a new poll out this morning with PBS NewsHour and Marist about the state of the 2020 presidential race. And Domenico, you have been spending a lot of time in the top lines of the crosstabs of this poll. So let's just start with a really broad question. What do you think are the biggest takeaways from this new poll? Well, I think the biggest thing is Elizabeth Warren being on the rise. I mean,

the fact of the matter is we didn't ask the sort of horse race toss up question of who do you prefer to be the nominee? What we decided to ask about was favorability ratings. So we said, do you like this person? Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of them? And pollsters will call this the feeling thermometer because it tells you how warm or cold people are toward that individual. And that may be an indicator of how soft their support is or how strong their support is. Well, so Warren is on the rise. We've known that we have seen in other polls as well that she has been on a sort of slow and steady climb. What about Biden and Sanders? How are they doing?

So Warren is well liked among the party. Three quarters of people say they have a favorable opinion. Biden also holds up pretty well. 71% say they like Biden. It's down a little bit from last January. But remember, he's been the front runner in the polls and taken most of the slings and arrows in this campaign. And his campaign will say that shows he's holding up pretty well considering. Bernie Sanders has also seen a big increase among Democratic voters who maybe early on there was some holdover from Clinton voters. They didn't really kind of want to say they had a favorable opinion of him. He's jumped and he's up to 66 percent favorable.

There's a flip side to all this, though, because in a general election, it's a very different story. Right. Because what we've been talking about here are how Democrats feel about rights. So broadening this out, one of the bigger takeaways that I had from this poll is when we polled all people, Democrats, Republicans, and dependents on favorable, unfavorable on some of these top Democratic candidates, they were all either even, like roughly evenly favorable, unfavorable, or underwater, more unfavorable than not. I mean, to open this up to all three of you, how scary is that or is that not for Democrats? Is that just partisanship? I wonder, that's my question is more is that, is the poll numbers we see just a reflection

of political polarization, that increasingly voters, it doesn't matter about the person or the story or the policies, they see an R and a D after their name and there is just a built-in level of dislike, no matter no matter any other information you can tell them about that person. I think that's true for Biden and for Warren, because there's such an even split. Biden is 45 favorable, 46 unfavorable. Warren is 41, 42. So that's pretty generic partisanship for a generic Democrat having the floor and ceiling kind of where it's always going to be. But there's something else going on, given those control factors for Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris in particular. Sanders is the most unliked of those four. When they threw when we threw that out to the general

populace, 55 percent of people said they had an unfavorable opinion of Bernie Sanders, despite his popularity with Democrats and Kamala Harris. interestingly, she's still not very well known, but only 31 percent of people say they have a favorable opinion of her. Forty two percent say they have an unfavorable opinion of her. Well, so let's move on to the flip side here. We've talked about all of these Democratic presidential candidates. Let's talk about Donald Trump, because we also polled about him. I mean, his approval rating has been so steady throughout his presidency, at least relatively so. Is anything changing for him? I mean, he does enjoy the most stable poll ratings of any president since polling existed.

Now, they're not reliably great ratings. Right. But in so many ways, I just think the country has their mind made up about Donald Trump. There's not much information an average American could hear about him that if you love him, there's nothing you can hear that's going to change it. And if you hate it, there's nothing you're going to hear that's going to change it. So there's so much in his polling, I think is constant. But you're right, if there is some big dramatic economic upheaval, that might maybe is the one thing that would get his baked in support to chip away. But I have always just been more amazed at

how constant and consistent his numbers are compared to essentially every other president in the modern era. Totally. I mean, as Sue said, it's been very consistent. 40-41. I mean, we saw some polling came out this week that had him at 38-39. Those are not numbers any incumbent wants to be at, be it president, House, Senate, anywhere. Those are like the danger zone. And but then, as we talked about earlier, some of these other numbers for the Democratic candidates are not great either in a way. So it almost sort of feels like just with this polarization we have, we're headed for another election where it's OK, people don't like Trump. They may not like the Democrat. It's sort of the lesser of two evils in a way. One of the most fascinating pieces of information in this poll, Domenico, how people feel about Trump's reelection. Do you want to reveal it? Well, if you found the nugget, you can say.

In that, despite his negative approval ratings and despite all of that attitudes of voters, the country still believes he'll probably win reelection. Yep. Despite the fact that you have 52 percent of people in this poll saying they definitely will not vote for him. Forty six percent say that he will definitely win higher than the 37 percent that say they think the Democrat will win. I find myself struggling with what to read into this. Like on the one hand, a Democrat isn't picked yet. Like and also, I think a good number of voters didn't expect him to win in 2016, saw him win. And now we're just saying, well, he'll probably win again, because I don't know, it feels it's either a throw your hands up response from some of these people, especially Democrats, or it really means he's strong. He's kind of strong. I don't know. And it's just an interesting sort of snapshot in this very moment in time,

a plurality of voters think he's going to win again. And that's just an it's just an interesting sort of pulse check on the mood of the country right now. We clearly can't tell the future. So we're just going to leave it there. Jess, we're going to let you go. Thank you so much for joining us and explaining North Carolina and this poll to us. Thank you. Crystal ball says cloudy. Support for this podcast and explaining North Carolina and this poll to us. Thank you. Crystal ball says cloudy. by providing free digital skills workshops and one-on-one coaching in all 50 states, helping businesses get online,

connect with new customers, and work more productively. Learn more at google.com slash grow. Support also comes from BetterHelp. BetterHelp offers licensed professional counselors who specialize in issues such as depression, stress, anxiety, and more. Connect with your professional counselor in a safe and private online environment

at your convenience. Get help at your own time and your own pace. Schedule secure video or phone sessions, plus chat and text with your therapist. Visit betterhelp.com slash politics to learn more and get 10% off your first month. When you think of country music, you probably have a particular image in mind. But as you can imagine, the history is way more complicated. This week on ThruLine, we sit down with filmmaker Ken Burns to talk about his new documentary about the origins of country music. ThruLine from NPR, the podcast where we go back in time to understand the present. And we're back. And Domenico, we have another poll out this week. This one is focusing on guns. And so before we get to what legislation on gun control looks like on

the Hill, let's start with this poll. So, Domenico, what did we find about the specific types of legislation that people want? What do people want done about guns? Well, given the fact that Congress was coming back this week, we thought it might be a good idea to ask people, given the mass shootings that happened over the summer, we saw Dayton, El Paso, Odessa, Texas, and we wanted to give a little bit of time for those events to recede. But there's been a remarkable consistency here. So we asked, do you think Congress should pass legislation to do the following things? And there were mass, mass, broad support, bipartisan support for four areas. One, increasing funding for mental health screenings and treatment. Two, requiring background checks for gun purchases.

Three, creating red flag laws. And these are those laws that allow police or family members to request that a judge temporarily remove guns from people who might be a danger to themselves or others. And four, to require individuals to obtain a license before being able to purchase a gun. And Democrats, Republicans, independents, gun owners, even, all in favor of those four items. And that's kind of in keeping with after every mass shooting in our country, which is in and of itself a very sad sentence to say. But we see these polls that do say that, yes, Americans really like the idea of certain gun policies being passed. So, Sue, people like some of these ideas. Is congressional leadership listening? Well, it depends on which party you're talking to, right?

I mean, you know, the Congress came back this week and the House Judiciary Committee immediately took up three more pieces of gun legislation reflecting some of those concerns. They passed three bills along party lines that would do things like enact red flag laws, which we've talked a lot about on the podcast, which would make it easier to take guns away from people that could be a danger to themselves or others, a ban on high capacity ammunition magazines and legislation that would prevent people who have been convicted of certain hate crime misdemeanors from possessing firearms. They've already passed background check legislation. This is something that especially as Democrats look over the House in the 2018 midterms, they have made gun legislation a priority. The divide here is really just along partisan lines, almost strictly along partisan

lines. I mean, there is overwhelming support in the Democratic Party for all of those things you just outlined, including the legislation I just talked about. I believe there's also something like 200 co-sponsors on legislation to renew the assault weapons ban. I think all of them are Democrats. So the reflection of those poll numbers is true within the Democratic Party. The question here is that there still hasn't been much movement on the Republican side of the aisle. Of course, the president continues to suggest that he is open to some kind of new gun legislation, to some kind of stronger background check system. But the White House has continually been unable to articulate what exactly that is. And without

that precision, Republicans like Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, reiterated this week that they're not going to take up a bill that they're not sure the president will sign. My members know the very simple fact that to make a law, you have to have a presidential signature. And so we are, we had a briefing at lunch from Eric Gulen from down at the White House. They are working on coming up with a proposal that the president will sign. Until that happens, all of this is theatrics. McConnell has a point, right? His point is that these can be politically tough votes for a lot of Republicans. So they're going to need some cover. The power that Donald Trump has right now, if he chooses to use it, is he is uniquely situated among presidents in enacting gun legislation.

Because the very nature of him coming out in favor of something will be able to bring so many Republicans who might secretly or privately want to take a vote on this to give them some cover to do it. So I think it's possible, but so much of the power in this really does rest in Donald Trump and how seriously he takes this issue. Help square this for me, because if it's true, as Domenico was just saying, that in our poll and in some other polls, you have Republicans, a majority of Republicans and a majority of gun owners saying they like certain gun legislation. How is it not bad for congressional Republicans or for Donald Trump to not pass that gun legislation? You know, I think that this is the most undercovered story potentially within politics of guns, because generally it's been seen as, well, it's risky to come out in favor of some gun restriction because, ooh, the NRA is going to, you know, potentially take somebody out from a primary or something like that. And it has a lot of members, too. Let's be clear.

Absolutely. And look, gun owners vote and it's an important issue for them. But for the first time in 2018, we saw the NRA outspent by groups that are pro-gun restrictions. And, you know, overall, when you look at this question of whether or not you want to protect, you think it's more important to protect gun rights or to control gun violence consistently since April of 2013. We've had we've had more people saying that it's more important to control gun violence than it is to protect gun rights. And there's been a real movement since universal background checks failed after the Sandy Hook shootings, where 20 children were killed in Newtown, Connecticut, after President Obama came out in the White House and said, this is a shameful day for

Washington. That's when you really saw gun groups, people who want gun restrictions put in place, start to put real money into it. And also really important, and we see this in our polling too, look at the voters who this really resonates with. This is places like in the suburbs. Obviously, the suburbs are places where people raise their kids. And people who are raising kids, I think, have their shifting views on gun laws because so many of these mass shootings have happened in schools and have affected children. And that's also why I think you're seeing a big, not a big, but a notable gender gap, right? Women overwhelmingly want to see stronger gun laws. And women have been increasingly difficult voters for the Republican Party, not just to recruit as their own for their own candidates and to put up in the party,

but to appeal to as voters. And between the suburbs and female voters, losing them by dramatic numbers in 2020 could be a big problem for the Republican Party. The reality is right now, especially in the House, most Republicans don't represent the suburbs, right? They are still representing very conservative, often rural places that feel quite differently about these gun laws. Well, we're going to leave it there. We will likely hear more about gun policy tomorrow at the third Democratic presidential debate. Guns are sure to come up along with a host of other issues. And by the way, you can get familiar with where the

candidates stand by following a new online series we launched. We're tracking candidates' stances on various issues. We have already this week put up health care and climate change. Immigration will be out tomorrow, so take a look at that. And all right, we're going to take a quick break. When we get back, it's time for Can't Let It Go. Support for this podcast and the following message come from the Annie E. Casey Foundation, developing solutions to support strong families and communities to help ensure a brighter future for America's children. More information is available at aecf.org. There is no way of getting around it. College is really expensive.

She was like, I have to go here. I'm just going to die if I don't go. And then we looked at the cost. I said, well, you're just going to have to die. But there are strategies to help ease the burden. Check out LifeKit's new episode from NPR on saving for college by subscribing to LifeKit All Guides. And we're back and we're going to end the show like we do every week with Can't Let It Go. This is the part of the show where we talk about things we can't stop thinking about, politics or otherwise. Sue, you are leading us off this week.

What can't you let go? So the thing I can't let go today is it is, of course, obviously 9-11 and the anniversary of 9-11 on social media where a lot of people are tweeting about it and remembrances. And the one that I have found just absolutely gripping is a Twitter thread by Garrett Graff. He's a journalist and an author, and he's got a book coming out that's called The Only Plane in the Sky, where he did a complete oral history interviewing hundreds of people involved in 9-11, from everyone from Vice President Dick Cheney

to first responders to people in the towers that day. He is spending the day with a Twitter thread of all of the most provocative quotes that he got from his oral history interviews, obviously in part to promote his book. But it is just an absolutely fascinating, gripping read, even done on Twitter, right? And it is pulling quotes from everyone like Condoleezza Rice and the way that they were experiencing the day. And he's kind of using the thread to catalog the day in real time as it kind of happened with this 360 view of it. And I would highly recommend it to anyone just to scroll through it when you've got some time, because it is just so evocative of that

day and that time. And I just thought he did such a good job with it. And it makes me now want to read his book, which our colleague Scott Detrow did, and he reviewed it for NPR. It was a very good review. Yeah, he wrote a really glowing review of it. And he said, I can see it now because I feel it even when I'm reading the tweets where you get like sort of like physically uncomfortable or tense just reading about it. And Scott in his review says that there were times where he was reading the book that he like literally could only read like 10 pages and have to put it down and like come back to it because it's just so visceral and intense. But highly recommended, especially on a day like today. And it's fascinating to me.

I mean, on a day like today where it's kind of, it's weird having lived through 9-11 and being a reporter at that time, you know, not even seeing or hearing it kind of be the dominant thing anymore, which I feel like for several years, they just kept like replaying coverage and footage and we don't see that anymore. And I think it's a reminder now we're 18 years later. This is the first time that kids who were born on September 11, 2001 will be able to vote. Man. Yeah. There's a whole book to be done, I think, on probably the 9-11 generation. And how that shaped how they will vote and how they think. Well, Sue, thank you for that. Domenico, what can't you let go of? What I can't let go of this week is this campaign launch video

for a candidate in New Mexico for the 3rd Congressional District, Democrat Valerie Plame. She's back. She's back. If you recognize that name, let me explain who she was to remind you. She was an undercover CIA officer whose cover was blown in the Bush administration. That led to this big investigation and the conviction eventually of Scooter Libby,

Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff. President Trump wound up pardoning Libby last year. And she is running this ad that looks more like a movie trailer, frankly, than a campaign ad. I was an undercover CIA operative. Oh, this is absurd. This looks like a Ford car commercial for race cars or something. I come from Ukrainian Jewish immigrants. The entire ad is her in this like Chevy Camaro in the desert.

And she's driving backwards really fast, right? And you're sort of like, where's this going? And she says that the country is in reverse. It's going backwards. And then she pulls off this maneuver. She's really driving the car and like spins it around. We need to turn our country around. And then she gets out the dust flowing and she like walks through the dust.

In slow motion? Well, she walks in slow, maybe it is in slow motion. I don't know. Just curious. She takes the glasses off and she says that she has unfinished business. Mr. President, I've got a few scores to settle. Can we say badass on the podcast? Because it seems like the badass campaign ad is definitely a thing now. Especially for women. Especially for women. Right? Like, I am tough. I am strong.

I'm going to take it to the men in Washington. Danielle, I think I might know what you can't let go this week. I think you do. You were a participant in it. Is it the yield curve? It is the yield curve. Everybody strap in. This is going to be great. No. What I can't let go of is something that a lot of our listeners probably saw on the internet several weeks ago. It was a cooking video where it was one of those fast paced, like tasty or whatever the branding is, videos where they show you very quickly how to cook something. Like on Instagram? Yes. Yes, exactly. And so this was the thickest quesadilla you've ever seen filled with barbecued chicken and bacon.

You cut it into pieces. You bread each piece. You deep fry each piece. Then you put them back together and you put pizza sauce on it and mozzarella cheese and pepperoni and you put it under a broiler and then you dip it in ranch dressing why just why that's what i wondered and so last night at my home sue davis and sam sanders came over and come on and we made this thing we we did it devil pie devil pie into the fire don't maybe. Should we? Oh, there we go. Ooh, listen to that baby. Yeah, baby.

Good. All right. Sam Sanders knows how to fry some food. He really does. A couple of things that I learned last night. First of all, Sam Sanders really knows how to deep fry. Second of all, Sue Davis went above and beyond and went to a wine store and got a wine pairing for this thing. Oh, I think you have to have wine to watch this process.

No, but I mean, she got good wine, like specifically matched to the recipe. Oh, yeah? Yeah. It must be a blend. I went to a very nice wine store and I explained to the very serious wine man the assignment before me. And he was very appalled at the disgusting gastronomy we were going to put in our bodies but he was definitely game to suggest some wine and if you make this at home he recommended a grenache there's your answer if you want to know what to serve with

your barbecue chicken pizzadilla it's a grenache what did this thing taste like a heart attack danielle's clutching her chest right now i I can say I do not feel amazing today. I did have breakfast, but I have not touched lunch yet. It tastes a little like regret, if we're being honest. I will say... It sounded like regret to start with. Maybe this is the

eye I wanted to leave, but the ranch dressing made it so much better. Yeah, I'm sure it did. But anyway, I can't lick a little bit. My body won't lick a little bit for a while. That's probably good, I think. Oh, yeah. Yeah, I'm sure it did. But anyway, I can't lick a little bit. My body won't lick a little bit for a while. That's probably good, I think. Oh, yeah. We're going to be a bigger thing. Oh, yeah.

Let's call that a wrap for today. We will be back. Let's call that a quesadilla for today. Bam. Nice. We will be back super late tomorrow night or super early Friday morning, depending on how you look at it, after the third presidential debate with another podcast. You can follow along with us during the debates by heading to NPR.org. We'll have a live blog breaking down all the issues that come up.

I am Danielle Kurtzleben. I cover politics. I'm Susan Davis. I cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Mazzanaro, political editor. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.