The NPR Politics Podcast - What to Watch For In Tuesday's Elections

Episode Date: August 6, 2018

Tuesday's primaries in Washington, Michigan, Kansas and Missouri will shape several high-profile general election contests. Plus, a look inside the special election in Ohio's 12th district that's causing a ton of buzz. This episode: political reporter Danielle Kurtzleben, reporter Sarah McCammon, and political editor Domenico Montanaro. Email the show at [e-mail]. Find and support your local public radio station at npr.org/stations.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, everyone. This is Joan from Philadelphia. It's midnight on my 30th birthday, and I'm hoping for the best present in the world. Happy birthday wish from the NPR politics team. This podcast was recorded at 149 p.m. on August 6. Things may have changed by the time you hear it. Keep up with all of NPR's political coverage at NPR.org, the NPR One app, and on your local public radio station. Okay, here's the show. Happy birthday. Happy birthday. She wants a wish from us, though.

The best wish ever. Oh, that's so nice. You give us too much credit. Your 30s is the best decade. It will be great. You don't even need to wish that. It's just going to be good. Hey, everyone.

It is the NPR Politics Podcast, here with a quick take to tell you everything you need to know going into tomorrow's primary elections in Michigan, Kansas, Missouri, and Washington. I'm Danielle Kurtzleben, political reporter. I'm Sarah McCammon. I'm covering the White House. I'm Domenico Montanaro, political editor. All of us are in our 30s. We are. Yes, indeed.

I mean, not much longer for some of us. Details. So guys, we have a big week. We have a whole bunch of primaries going on this week. Like I said, Michigan, Kansas, Missouri, Washington. But before we jump into what's going on in those four states, we have a special election going on on Tuesday in Ohio's 12th district. It's getting a lot of buzz. It seems to be a lot of really freaking out about this, a lot of tea leaf reading around this election. To recap, it's between Democrat Danny O'Connor and Republican Troy Balderson.

So I want to get into this with you guys. Normally, this might not seem like a big deal, but people are saying this is a major test for Republicans and even for Trump. So I want to get into, first of all, why is such a big deal being made out of this race? It's all I'm reading about in my political newsletter emails, all of that. I mean, this is a district that Trump won by 11 points in 2016. It's a district that Democrats have won just once since 1940. So that gives you a little bit of a sense of just how Republican leaning this district is. It's in the suburbs of Columbus, Ohio, in the northern central part of the state. And this is a place that should be pretty much an easy win for any Republican because there's just more Republicans than Democrats here.

But what we've been seeing through the polls, through the energy on the ground, is that it's actually kind of a toss-up race at this point. And so if the Democrat wins, or even if it's really tight, I think, I mean, that gives Democrats some ammunition to say, look, the blue wave is real. It's coming. Here it is. It would look very bad for Republicans. So both sides see this as an opportunity. Republicans don't want to lose this seat. They don't want to lose face. Democrats want to have this sort of to run on as they, you know, to build momentum into November. Well, and a quick question there. How much does that matter? I mean, it's one district, right?

Like if let's say it is even somewhat close and Democrats take that as some sort of a victory. OK, does that affect them in any other district, any other race? Is that just a confidence boost? Well, earlier this year, what we would have said is that it helps recruiting before a lot of these candidates were on the ballot. It certainly helps in fundraising. And if you think about given the fact that they're going to basically rerun this race in a general election in the fall, it would certainly help with fundraising and energy as Democrats feel like they got pretty close. But it is a warning sign if Democrats are able to get that close in another suburban district where a lot of these house races,

the key ones that are going to be up for election, 23 seats that Democrats need to net to be able to take over the House. It's another sign that there is some kind of a wave building. election in the fall is that Republican Congressman Pat T. Berry, who was in that seat before, left, was one of the many Republicans who's stepping down, and he left out of what appeared to be frustration with the political climate in Washington. That's why the seat is up for grabs in the first place. What does this tell us about whether, you know, in a district like this, do you want a far left or a moderate Democrat? Do you want someone far right or relatively moderate among Republicans? Well, that's one of the questions that's actually going to be on the ballot here is the strategy of whether or not, you know, you're a Republican and you tie yourself to President Trump or you need to distance yourself somewhat to be able to win in some of these suburban districts. What's been fascinating here is that Balderson has not exactly been running on the tax cut agenda of Republicans.

They ran like one ad on that. It didn't really resonate very much. And you can't really distance yourself too much from the Trump supporters here. Well, and likewise, on the other side, Danny O'Connor, he hasn't exactly been running as a as the progressive that you've seen in some other districts. He's not running on abolish ICE or Medicare for all. Yeah, he's not in the Bernie Sanders school of the Democratic Party. And arguably, if the reason that T. Barrie held on to his seat was because he appealed to sort of moderate suburban swing voters, somebody like O'Connor could have a better shot with some of those people,

especially running up against, you know, a Trump-esque Republican like Balderson. So this will be really a test, I think, in some ways of that theory. Does running a moderate Democrat against a Trump-like Republican, where does that get you? We'll see. Right. Well, and you mentioned Balderson as a Trump-like Republican. And lo and behold, Donald Trump has gone to Ohio to stump for him. Here is Trump at a rally last Saturday. Let me tell you, right from the beginning, Troy Balderson, he is the guy.

He is the guy that's going to do things. And you're going to be very surprised. You know, they're talking about this blue wave. I don't think so. So Trump is really putting all of his confidence behind Balderson. But John Kasich, Republican governor of Ohio, and also you may remember him as having run against Trump for the Republican presidential nomination. He has cast some doubt and he's really raised some concerns about the fact that this race is so close. It's really kind of shocking because this should be just a slam dunk and it's not.

Well, and this is a big question that I have for the both of you here. How does this kind of a swing in a district even happen if people get so dug into their positions in American politics? I think the Midwest is a different place. I mean, I think when you look at the kinds of voters who could be swing voters, they certainly live there in the Ohio suburbs, in Michigan, in Wisconsin, Western Pennsylvania, if you want to sort of consider that culturally Midwestern. Those are the kinds of places. And in Iowa, obviously, Danielle, you would know. But there are a lot of people in those places who are not firebrands. They're not flamethrowers. They don't want necessarily that kind of politics. They want someone to solve problems and fix things. And they may be more conservative culturally,

but they're not necessarily people who approve of Trump's decorum. What do you think of that, Sarah, having some Midwestern cred yourself? Yeah, I mean, I think that's not a bad theory. We obviously saw the swing the other direction in a lot of Midwestern states in 2016 that was unexpected, especially in some of those heavily labor and manufacturing states, which is to say, arguably, it could swing back the other way. And also, I think we're just in a political moment where some of the conventional wisdom doesn't seem to apply as much, which is why both parties are spending so much on this race and paying so much attention to it, because they're trying to build a narrative. All right. So that's one race, one race of many we're covering here. So we're going to leave that there. Let's move on to the four states that we are looking at primaries in on Tuesday. So Michigan was one of the more shocking wins for President

Trump in 2016. It was considered part of the so-called blue wall that Hillary Clinton was hoping to win and did not. But the president's approval numbers in the state, they've been dropping and Democrats are looking in relatively good shape to keep a Senate seat and even maybe retake the governor's mansion. The governor's race in that state is a toss up right now. Sarah, let's start with the governor's race. What's going on there? So the current governor's Republican, Rick Snyder, he's term limited out. So the seat's open. There are three candidates for the Republican nomination that'll be on the ballot. Among them are his lieutenant governor, Brian Calley,

who has a couple of marks against him, arguably. First of all, the Flint water crisis, which is still going on in many ways, has tarnished the Snyder administration. And it's possible that Calley is tainted by that as well. Also, one of his rivals in the primary, Attorney General Bill Schuette, he has a solid lead and is expected to win right now. He has gone after Calley for basically for renouncing Trump right after that Access Hollywood tape came out. Calley was among a lot of Republicans who said, you know, this is it. We've had enough. He did ultimately come around, his spokesman said, and voted for Trump. But Schuette is endorsed by President Trump, by Mike Pence, by Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.

So he has a lot of heavyweights on his side, and he's going after Kelly for that. There is one other candidate, State Senator Patrick Kohlbeck, who has the endorsement of Sean Hannity and Texas Senator Ted Cruz. But right now, Schuette appears to be at the top of that pack. We have a somewhat familiar dynamic there then, right? We have the person who is endorsed by Trump, the person who is seen as not Trumpian enough. What about the Democratic side? What are we seeing playing out there? Again, one of these sort of intra-party battles, you have a handful of candidates, and one of them, Abdul El-Sayed, is backed by Bernie Sanders. And then there's sort of the

establishment candidate, Gretchen Whitmer, who appears to be in the lead. But again, it's early, so you never know. We once again have this progressive, further left candidate running against a sort of Hillary Clinton-ish establishment candidate. And then you have a largely self-funded businessman in this as well, right. So it's one of those similar different types playing against each other races. Right. Which which Democratic Party do they want to be? All right. We're going to leave that there. Let's move on to another Midwestern state, Kansas, the sunflower state, as my script is telling me. You learn something new every day, guys. Sarah, let's talk about some of the races in Kansas. What Democratic races should we even be watching for? I mean, I think of Kansas as a pretty red state. So is there stuff that is worth paying attention to here on the Democrat side? It is a pretty red state, but it's an interesting one. I remember when I so I worked in Kansas in high school at a pharmacy and the pharmacist was very liberal, self-described, but he was a registered Republican because he said everyone in Kansas is a Republican.

So, you know, if you want to have any influence, you just have to be a Republican, which is to say there are a lot of moderate Republicans. So it's not always easy to peg it as a conservative red state, even though that is the way it tends to trend. Right now, all four House seats are held by Republicans, but there are a couple that Democrats have their eye on. They would like to try to flip. And so, you know, could be in November part of this larger effort by Democrats to flip the House could be important. Probably the most interesting one to watch is District three of those four, because Hillary Clinton won that just barely in 2016 by one point. So that makes the incumbent there, Republican

Congressman Kevin Yoder, vulnerable. And so the Democratic primary, which of course is what's coming up this week, is pretty interesting there. There are several people vying for that chance to run against Yoder. The one to probably really watch is Brent Welder, a union organizer who's endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Okay, so we've talked about some House races, especially on the Democratic side, but I want to shift gears here and talk about the governor's race and specifically the Republican side of the governor's race. Domenico is chuckling already, so this should be good. In this governor's race, we have an endorsement from Trump that just came out this morning.

He endorsed Chris Kobach saying, quote, Chris Kobach, a strong and early supporter of mine, is running for governor of the great state of Kansas. He is a fantastic guy who loves his state and our country. He will be a great, all caps, governor and has my full and total endorsement. Strong on crime, border and military. All caps. Vote Tuesday. So that was a Trump tweet. And we also have an ad from Kobach. Here is how Kobach is running. 17 years of marriage and five wonderful girls.

I want my girls to grow up in a Kansas that's safe from crime and terrorism, that doesn't tax its citizens to death, and that has a culture of life, faith, and family. Daddy, let's go to the swing. Great idea. A consistent conservative standing strong for every Kansan. Chris Kobach for governor. Well, and even listening to that, he sounds pretty conservative talking about life, faith and family, which are sort of buzzwords on the on the right. Here's the elephant in the room, though. Yeah. You know this name, Chris Kobach, because he ran President Trump's voter fraud commission, which really never got off the ground, really irritated a lot of attorneys general across the country, including Republican attorneys general, by the way, who had said that they don't see the kind of level of voter fraud that President Trump was claiming. So they're going to set up a commission basically to prove

this. And it went nowhere. This is an issue that Trump keeps returning to just in the last few days. We've heard him talk about voter ID as pushing that, you know, as something that he wants to see. So he hasn't given up on that, even though his commission really didn't find much. I want to back up and I want to get to one more important point about this race before we move on, which is it's not like Chris Kobach is the only person running in this primary. He's running against the Republican incumbent, Jeff Collier. The president came out and endorsed a guy who, yes, worked on his voting commission, but who's running to unseat the Republican incumbent.

I mean, my sentence, and tell me if I'm running to unseat the Republican incumbent. I mean, my sentence, and tell me if I'm wrong, is that that's pretty unusual, right? For a president to say, I want someone else, not the guy that's there. Well, yeah, unless the guy that's there, he doesn't think is as strongly in favor of him. I mean, a lot of what President Trump does is unusual as compared to past presidents. But for Trump, it's pretty consistent where he goes with the guy who he thinks has got his back the most. And certainly Kobach fits that bill. And the reason Kobach here actually has a very strong chance of winning is because there are seven candidates on the Republican side. And that would mean that he could sneak through with a third or less of the vote. And the thing is, if Kobach were to get through, even if it was with that small percentage of the vote, Democrats are lighting up thinking, wow, here comes a

governor's race that they could possibly put on the map because they're thinking that their gubernatorial nominee, Laura Kelly, would be someone who could take a more centrist tact. So I'm picking up on a theme for 2018, or maybe we all did a while ago, which is Democrats feeling hopeful about places that would otherwise seem to have pretty long odds for them. We're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, more on what to expect from Tuesday's primaries. for this podcast and the following message come from ACT, a flexible CRM trusted by millions worldwide. Manage customer contacts, track sales opportunities, and create professional marketing campaigns, all from your laptop or mobile device. Call 888-643-6400. Mention promo code NPR for a free Amazon dot with your purchase of ACT. Or visit act.com slash NPR to sign up for a free Amazon dot with your purchase of ACT. Or visit ACT.com slash NPR to sign up for a free 14-day trial. ACT. Growth made easy. All right. So in Missouri, we have...

Is it Missouri or Missouri? It is Missouri. Although this is another thing where, you know, when people are running for office, they get real folksy and they say, hello, I'm from Missouri. It's Missouri. I feel like our listeners are going to tell us and tell us in force. The emails are coming now. And I'm from Missouri. It's Missouri. I feel like our listeners are going to tell us and tell us in force. The emails are coming now. And I'm excited to hear them. I mean, guys, it ends with an I.

So let's just put that out there. Here we go. But now I'm angering on my rural Missouri. Missouri. Missouri. Brothers and sisters. I'm going to abstain. But OK, looking at Missouri, we have some really interesting races to look at,

as well as a referendum. So let's start with House races. Domenico, what should I be looking for in the House races tomorrow night? I'm really looking at the congressional district in St. Louis, where William Lacey Clay is a longtime Democratic incumbent, is running in this primary. And Cori Bush, who's running against him, she's a pastor. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has backed her. And she's running on Medicare for all, tuition-free public college, and a $15 minimum wage. If that sounds familiar, it's because that's what all of these candidates pretty much have been running on across the country. You know what they are, you know what the issues are,

and it makes a lot of sense to be able to run on those kinds of things. Whether or not she can take out someone like Clay, that would be a huge story if she does. Also, can I just add here how stunning it is, not only that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had that upset in New York. But now she's a queen maker. Well, yes, now she is the stand-in, the symbol you put next to yourself to say, by the way, I am that progressive, everybody. Amazing. Sarah, moving on to the Senate, what is going on there? Well, the Senate primary, to be totally honest, is not that interesting. But what is interesting is what it sets up going forward. There are a bunch of people running on the Republican side. On the Democratic side, the incumbent is Claire McCaskill, one of the least popular senators

running this year for reelection, seen as very vulnerable, less popular than President Trump. And let's remember, last time she had to run for reelection, she kind of got lucky because she was running against Todd Akin, was the Republican nominee, who you may recall, made that comment about legitimate rape and saying that, you know, if it's a legitimate rape, a woman's body just kind of has a way of shutting that whole thing down so she doesn't get pregnant, which obviously is scientifically deeply inaccurate and wasn't helpful to his campaign either, but was helpful to McCaskill's. So this year she's got to run against probably Josh Hawley, who is the front

runner in the Republican primary. That's going to be a very contested, very heavily invested in race that gets a lot of attention this fall. Well, speaking of this center versus further left divide that we're seeing among Democrats, Claire McCaskill is generally considered a bit more moderate than, you know, a lot of the other Democrats in the Senate. So does that help her here? What do you guys think? Or is she not going to have as enthusiastic of voters? She's a known quantity in Missouri. People have voted her in before statewide against the grain of how the state has changed. Republicans, though, have been itching to get McCaskill out of office. You know,

they feel like she's gotten lucky the last couple of times that she's run and they really are trying to hammer her over her personal wealth. But the thing with her is that she's a ferocious fundraiser. She's a ferocious campaigner. You know, Republicans love Josh Hawley. They think that he looks the part. But as a candidate on gravitas, he's somebody with a much lighter record than McCaskill. I really want to watch those debates. Gotcha. One more thing I want to add here is that it's not just candidates on the ballot on Tuesday in Missouri. There is a referendum on the ballot. It is the right to work law that Republican Governor Eric Greitens signed into law early last year.

And so unions almost immediately after he signed it into law said, you know, we want to challenge this. So they got it onto the ballot and voters will be going out tomorrow to see if they can overturn that before it takes effect. The fourth state having primaries on Tuesday is Washington. We will be keeping our eye on that. If there are any big surprises, anything you should know, we will be back on Wednesday to tell you all about it. That is a wrap for today. Thank you for listening, everybody. We'll be back in your feed with the results from these primaries and the special election on Wednesday. Until then, you can listen to our coverage on the radio. Find us at NPR.org. Read all of our stories there and follow us on Twitter at NPR Politics.

I am Danielle Kurtzleben, political reporter. I'm Sarah McCammon, covering the White House. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, political editor. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.