The NPR Politics Podcast - What We're Hearing On The Ground In Iowa

Episode Date: January 9, 2024

Iowa Republicans caucus in less than a week. Republican presidential candidates are making their final rounds across the state, and our reporters are following their campaigns. We talk to two about what they've learned on the ground. This episode: senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, political correspondent Danielle Kurtzleben, and Minnesota Public Radio senior politics reporter Clay Masters.This episode was edited by Erica Morrison. It was produced by Jeongyoon Han and Casey Morell. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Allie from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and I just got home from the dress rehearsal for my first show with the Milwaukee Symphony Orchestra. Oh, cool. This podcast was recorded at 12.08 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, January 9th. Things may have changed by the time you've heard this, but I will have accomplished my dream of singing on that amazing stage with the Milwaukee Symphony Orchestra. Enjoy the show. I want to know everything. What piece are you singing? Who composed it? What part do you sing? This is delightful. What the listeners can't see is

that Danielle's face just absolutely lit up. I know. I love going to the symphony. Oh, this delights me. That's great. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And I'm Danielle Kurtzleben.

I cover the presidential campaign. And we are joined by friend of the pod, Clay Masters. Welcome back, Clay. Hey, glad to be here. And so you are a longtime Iowa public radio reporter, but this week you started as the senior politics reporter at Minnesota Public Radio. So congratulations. Thank you. Just moving up north. But don't worry, I am still covering the Iowa caucuses. Very happy to be with you.

Good, because that's why you're on the pod. That's right. This is an exciting moment. After months and months of talking about the campaign, voting, actual voting, is about to begin. Next Monday, Iowa Republicans will go to caucus and the first delegates of 2024 will be awarded. So we wanted you, our audience, to be able to hear directly from the reporters who have been on the ground in Iowa covering the candidates. And Danielle, you are both an Iowan and just back from Iowa on a reporting trip. You've covered so many of these campaign events. What stands out to you about the mood at the various events?

So let's start with Trump. I went to a couple of Trump rallies last fall and I just came back from Iowa where I went to a Trump event where Eric Trump was headlining it, not Donald Trump himself. But the mood at those events is very, I mean, it is a Trump rally. It is high energy and also very confident. I mean, understandably so given polls, but just the focus is largely on Joe Biden. It is about Donald Trump can defeat Joe Biden. Joe Biden is the worst. He's crooked. And not a lot of time to even think about fellow Republicans except for the odd insult or two. Now, at the other events, let's talk about Rhonda Santus and Nikki Haley. At Nikki Haley events, this is sort of the other end of the spectrum. It feels the most to me like a Mitt Romney event from 2012, which is to say it's a sort of older Republican. This is very much a candidate who, of these three candidates, she's the one who has not made herself in the mold of Donald Trump. Let's say establishment.

Establishment vibes? Well, yes, although that is a pejorative among so many Republicans. But yes, I mean, at her events, her stump speech is very much not just my qualifications as Nikki Haley, U.N. ambassador, et cetera, but also there are facts and figures. There is a lot of policy in it. And she keeps it moving. It's not dry. It's very much about, I am not a chaotic Republican. I am going to bring order back to this party and to this country and unity. And then Ron DeSantis?

Ron DeSantis, you really have the feeling of Donald Trump looming over DeSantis' events. Now, DeSantis, in his stump speech, has a lot of insults for Haley, a lot of making fun of Summer for her recent gaffes, but also he's very much walking a careful line of, I'm a lot like Trump, but I'm different and better. Like, I could do the of these events, and Clay can probably speak to this even better than I can, what is always very striking about Iowa caucuses is you can go to an event and think, wow, this candidate has so much enthusiasm. They're going to do great. But you can say that at any event, no matter how well the candidate is polling, because these events are often quite full and full of enthusiastic people, because that's who turns out to Iowa caucus campaign events. Clay, this is your third caucus cycle. Former President Trump is running like an incumbent and by all accounts does have a prohibitive lead. So how does covering it compare? Does it even feel like there's a competitive race? I mean, it does in the sense that there are competitors coming to the state and people showing up to see them.

I mean, you got to remember, for the better part of 20, I mean, the best thing we have to do is to compare where things were eight years ago. And for the better part of 2015, you know, in the lead up to the 2016 Iowa caucuses, it was all about who is going to be the candidate that can like overtake Donald Trump. People weren't taking him seriously. I remember when he was at the Iowa State Fair, there were still like entertainment outlets covering him. Now he's served a term in the White House. Now there's just more infrastructure for Donald Trump in the state of Iowa. We often say that Trump is not in Iowa as much as his rivals, but when he is here, the campaign is being pretty darn savvy. I mean, Danielle, I'm sure you saw him when you were at these events, these videos that play ahead of time. Before Trump's remarks, there's like a cartoon of Marlon, this Iowan who learns how to go to the caucuses. They spell it out. You know,

you have to be there at 7 p.m. People give speeches on behalf of the different candidates in the running. So this cartoon kind of- It's like schoolhouse rock, but for the Iowa caucuses. It's totally like schoolhouse, but for MAGA Republicans, right? So Trump is getting people to turn out and he's having to educate them. And he's hoping, his campaign is hoping that that really pays off because it's setting up to be a very, very cold and snow covered January 15th, which of course is when they're wanting people to turn out in the evening to caucus. All right. We're going to take a quick break. And when we get back, closing arguments and what Iowa voters are telling our reporters.

And we're back and we are less than a week away from the Iowa caucuses. And I want to know what these candidates' closing arguments are like. So, Danielle, let's start with former President Trump. Yeah, I mean, Trump's closing argument is really the simplest here. I'm a winner. I'm going to win. I am confident. And his voters are very confident, too. Here he was in Sioux City, Iowa, recently. By delivering a massive victory in Iowa, you'll send a thundering message

to Crooked Joe Biden. He's a crooked man, an incompetent crooked man. Yeah, and he wants to wrap this up in part because he's got a court calendar that awaits him in the spring. Absolutely, yes. Although that court calendar, to be absolutely clear, of course, it would interfere a lot with campaigning, but it also really emboldens, invigorates his voters. I remember a couple of rallies I went to, it was in September, it was not long after the Trump mugshot. And that arena was filled with people with mugshot t-shirts, buttons. It was everywhere. Like Like that is something that makes his voters more excited, not less. And I should just note here that Trump was in Washington, D.C. today, not Iowa. He was in a federal appeals court where his lawyers were arguing that he should have blanket immunity for actions he took as president related to the January 6th insurrection. And we will certainly talk more about that aspect of Trump's unorthodox campaign later this week. But Clay, what is Nikki Haley's closing argument? Well, Nikki Haley, while she has not been in Iowa as much as,

say, Ron DeSantis, and they're really kind of seem to be battling it out for second place. Because remember, Ron DeSantis was seen as Trump's main rival when he got into the race this spring. Now he's facing some stagnant poll numbers and a lot of the polls that you look at show Nikki Haley within the margin of error tied with him in second place and very far down in second place. But your question about Nikki Haley's closing arguments, I see that she's more directly going after Donald Trump than than Ron DeSantis. You know, she's said to me in an interview on Iowa Public Radio a couple of weeks ago, you know, she doesn't agree with Donald Trump praising different dictators with Hezbollah congratulating the Chinese Communist Party on their 70th anniversary. And I pressed her a couple of times asking, you know, well, do you see Trump as being a negative thing for American democracy? And she didn't explicitly say that, but this is kind of

how she answered that question. You can't have someone who's so focused on the past that they can't see the future. And that's why I think Donald Trump shouldn't be president, is not only does chaos follow him, but he's not in the right state of mind to really look forward. He's too busy wanting to fix the grievances of the past. We can't have that. We won't survive it. Ron DeSantis' closing argument, Danielle, I've seen a line. It's in his latest campaign ad, and he's been saying it out on the trail, but it's something to the effect of Donald Trump is running on his issues. Nikki Haley is running on her donors' issues, and I'm running on your issues. I mean, I think that they're trying to make that his closing argument. Absolutely, yeah. And he's really hammering home to Iowans that he is the Iowa candidate,

that he's been to all the 99 counties. He has Governor Kim Reynolds' endorsement, which is a big deal. He has the endorsement of Bob Vander Plaats, who is the head of the Iowa Family Leader, which is a prominent evangelical organization in Iowa. That is a big deal. But also, Clay mentioned how Nikki Haley is going after Trump. Well, Ron DeSantis is trying to hit Nikki Haley hard with her various gaffes in recent days. But also, he's trying to hit Trump but not hit Trump. And here is one example from a speech he gave over the weekend. He said he was going to do an executive order that was going to challenge

this issue of illegal alien birthright citizenship. It would get litigated, but he would do it. So he had four years. All he had to do was sign his name to this order and he never did it. So clearly Ron DeSantis approves of ending birthright citizenship. He approves of the various promises Trump has made over the years. But Ron DeSantis is saying Trump didn't do it. I can do it. He's really saying I'm Trump, but better. And Ron DeSantis's voters totally believe that. them, which is kind of hilarious, is that she was in New Hampshire and she essentially said, you know, Iowa, they do their thing, but then New Hampshire corrects it. And of course, now that's being played on repeat in Iowa. Yeah. You bet that I could repeat that along with you because I heard it about, I don't know, six or seven times over the weekend. Yeah. And DeSantis also, I should say, has Chip Roy of Texas and Thomas Massey of Kentucky, both Republican House members, two very conservative House members,

out making the case for him. And by the way, they are taking shots at Trump. Thomas Massey even does his Trump impression ahead of Ron DeSantis' speeches. It's golden. It gets the crowd laughing at Donald Trump. But importantly, DeSantis isn't the one making that point. It's Massey. So I want to ask what voters are thinking, because they're the ultimate decider here. What are you hearing? And I guess, Clay, go first. What are you hearing from Iowa voters? What is going into their decision-making process? Or did they decide months ago? The Trump fans are already locked in. It's a question, though, you know, we joke about how we always talk about it's a question

over turnout, right? But I mean, the only poll that matters is the one on election day. Yeah, exactly. But I mean, like, so we were talking about the weather, right? A lot of snow, very cold. I mean, it's a question of whether or not people are going to be motivated enough to show up on caucus night. And the people that are showing up to these events for Donald Trump, you know, there's a same kind of feeling that you saw in past cycles where people are there to see him. They're really big fans. And they're trying to motivate them to show up because, again, this is not an election where you show up when you want to. It's at 7 p.m. You have to stand and wait to get in, and then you've got to be there for a while. And so the very passionate Trump supporters are going to show up in the cold, and the people that are seeing Ron DeSantis. Some of those folks are still trying to make up their mind between that Trump alternative.

And so Iowa voters that are showing up to see Nikki Haley or we didn't even talk about Vivek Ramaswamy. He's here a lot, but he's polling still very low in the single digits, basically tied with former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has never spent any time in Iowa during this 2024 caucus campaign cycle. Clay is absolutely right that the Trump voters are the Trump voters and never have they strayed. They are loyal. But I've talked to quite a few people just this last weekend who are coming out for the first time. They've sat it out and now they're saying, all right, I'll finally go see the candidates and now I'll decide. And a thing that you do find is you find a lot of people trying to decide between DeSantis and Haley. You find a lot of people trying to decide between DeSantis and Trump. You do not find a lot of people trying

to decide between Trump and Haley. Those two just seem like a bridge too far. Those planets are pretty far apart. Yeah. But I mean, you do have a lot of voters who say, I just can't stand Trump. I just can't. Actually, this is a woman who I met at a Nikki Haley rally in Waukee last month. Her name is Cindy Porter. I'm just tired of, well, I guess I'll have to say his name. I'm just tired of Donald Trump telling us he's only talking about himself. He's not doing anything for our country. We have to be together and take care of each other. That is how a lot of Nikki Haley people have landed on her.

They're tired of Trump. They see DeSantis as objectionable in one way or another, too pugilistic, too this or that, too extreme on this issue or that issue. And so they like Haley. Ron DeSantis voters are the most interesting in their logic. Here is Sarah Harbaugh. I met her ahead of one of his rallies in Cedar Falls. My lean towards DeSantis is more just, I'm not sure that the media and the country would allow Trump to do what he wants to do, where DeSantis, I think Trump's policies, but I don't like his demeanor. He's too mean, the tweets, all that. So I like Ron DeSantis. Or they'll say what Sarah Harbaugh said there, that I like Donald Trump, but he has too many enemies. People hate him so much he just can't get anything done. I want something who can get Trump's stuff done. Ron DeSantis is my guy.

That is pretty common. All right. So aside from who wins and who loses, what are you two watching on Monday night? I'll go first. So I will be at the Trump watch party in Des Moines on Monday night. I think one thing I'm going to be watching is particularly the northwestern part of Iowa, where there are a lot of very, very committed and enthusiastic white evangelical voters who really, really tie their vote to their faith. And I'm going to be very curious how they vote, whether they vote for Trump. A lot of them do like Ron DeSantis. And I've talked to more than a few who think that Trump is morally objectionable for one reason or another, whether it's things

he's done in his past, that he's mean, et cetera. And so I'm going to be very curious how those voters end up lining up. Clay? Yeah, I'm going to be at the Ron DeSantis campaign on caucus night. So I'll be watching to see kind of early signs of what the crowd is thinking as results start coming in. Remember, this is run by the Republican Party of Iowa, not by the state of Iowa. So just a note for those paying attention at home. And I'm going to be interested to see, especially the suburbs around Des Moines, which is the largest city in the state of Iowa. I'll be interested to see if there is a groundswell of support for maybe Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. I don't know that it's really going to counter the strength that Donald Trump has been showing throughout the year in Iowa. But a second place finish in Iowa, we always talk about the three tickets out of Iowa.

That's first class coach and standby. I think there is a ticket out of Iowa and maybe there is a second ticket. But it's just like the momentum is going to be hard to claim if it is like 20 or 30 points behind the former president. And that is it for today. Thank you so much, Clay, for joining us. Yeah, thank you. Make sure to check out our Friday Roundup, which will include everything you need to know about what to expect on Monday, caucus night, and how to follow the caucus results. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. I'm Danielle Kurtzleben. I cover the presidential campaign. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.