The NPR Politics Podcast - What's the Trump administration's strategy in Iran?

Episode Date: March 20, 2026

The United States has entered the third week of its war with Iran, but the end game is no clearer today than it was at the start of the war. We talk about what may come next, why NATO allies are rebuffing President Trump's requests for help & what the political implications are.This episode: senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez, and senior political editor & correspondent Domenico Montanaro.This podcast was produced and edited by Casey Morell & Bria Suggs.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.To manage podcast ad preferences, review the links below:See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. I'm Frank O'Donias. I also cover the White House. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And we have made it to Friday. So let's take a look at some of the other political news this week. And I want to start with the war in Iran. This is the third week. And the in-game is no clearer than it was on day one. So Franco, there has been a lot of talk recently of Cincinnati. sending troops to Iran. What do we know about that? Yeah, yeah, yeah, a lot of commotion about that. What we know is that 2200 Marines have been dispatched to the region with all their equipment, including vehicles and support ships and stuff like that. What we don't know exactly is what their objective is, but clearly the administration is looking to put a lot more pressure on Iran and possibly even looking to seize one or more of the islands off the coast of Iran to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and, you know, counter the Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, oil and cargo ships. Now, the big island that Trump has been looking at

is Karg Island, which is the main location for Iran's oil infrastructure. And Trump's really been talking about it a lot over the last few days, saying he could knock it out, knock out their oil on the island at any moment, which, though, would be a very risky move to try and and seize that island because it would mean troops on the ground. And it's very uncertain how the American public would respond to that, especially if it drags the U.S. into a wider conflict. Yeah. And I think we just have to say here that the idea of boots on the ground in any form would be a major escalation. And something that President Trump very explicitly campaigned against. But at this moment, he is playing to. coy about what he might do or what might happen. Domenico, this is just a long way from a one and done, a few strikes, and we're out of here at this point. Yeah. And the president is trying to walk this line. Like he's not saying, oh, you know, we're going to put troops in the ground. In fact, he's saying

the opposite that, oh, no one's talking about doing that. And yet there's these movements of troops that are headed to the region, the Marines that are in the region. And, you know, and I think that they continue to do this between the president and defense secretary Pete Hegseth in particular, to sort of downplay the long-term potential for this war because they know that it's politically dangerous to try to sell the American people on a prolonged war with American, quote-unquote, boots on the ground. And Franco, you mentioned the Strait of Hormuz. This is this critical waterway where a whole lot, about 20 percent.

of the world's oil is transported. Is there any progress in getting that waterway open? Yeah, it's been a real tough road for the president on that front. I mean, he continues to put pressure on allies and anyone who would listen to help reopen that straight. You know, he actually claims that he doesn't need help, but he is putting tremendous amount of willpower and energy to push allies to do that. I was with him on Sunday when he kind of kicked.

this pressure campaign off, and it's just been day to day going after allies using every push and pull that he can. The reality, though, is he really needs help to reopen the straight. Clearly, he can't do it on his own. Clearly, the U.S. can't do it on its own. And he needs that straight to be open, basically, to end this war. Because if he doesn't, as you kind of point out, Iran is going to kind of continue to keep this stranglehold on oil markets. Everyone is seeing oil prices are surging and anyone who's been driving down the road can see that at their gas pump. You know, I would say, though, I think the U.S. could maybe do it on its own, but at what cost is really the issue, right? Like, Trump doesn't want to absorb all of the cost and casualties that could come from something as dangerous as trying to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

And you mentioned the word cost. Franco, this war is not cheap or even close to it. And there's word that the administration is going to be seeking a huge supplemental amount of funding from Congress to pay for it. Yeah. President Trump's acknowledged that yesterday, saying that he needs $200 billion to continue the war. Now, he says it's not just for the war. It's for other services. But, you know, the defense secretary Pete Hegseth, you know, said, hey, it takes a lot of money to kill bad guys. I mean, this is this is money for the war. It's very interesting because this is going to be put in front of Congress, which is really going to put them in a challenging, challenging position. Because President Trump, as we have reported many, many times before, did not seek consultation from Congress. He did not seek authorization from Congress to go to war with Iran. So this vote and the debate surrounding it of this $200 billion is really going to be kind of a de facto war authorization vote.

So we're going to be able to see if it, you know, if they get to the vote, who supports this. And you can imagine how this is going to play out later on in the midterms. And this is pretty predictable because this war is already costing billions of dollars. And I think it's kind of notable because during the campaign, a lot of the MAGA base and, you know, was sold by Trump, this idea that he wouldn't get into quote unquote forever wars, which the defense secretary continues to use that term to say this is not going to be that. But in other words, prolonged wars in the Middle East in particular. You wouldn't have boots on the ground of Americans going overseas to fight other people's wars were things that Trump used to say. And asking for more money. $200 billion is a lot of money, especially at a time when in the United States people are saying that high prices are their top priority.

Gas prices are going up because of this. Other prices have gone up because of tariffs. And now people, again, that argument that was made by Trump himself to say, why should we be sending money over there when we need to. fix what's happening over here. And I have spoken to swing voters, people who voted for President Trump, who have just used that sort of phrasing. The, I think that our money should be here at home for Americans. That's what President Trump campaigned on. And now, you know, we don't know how long this is going to last, but at the moment, it certainly looks like the president is involved in something. he calls it an excursion but involved in something that is a pretty dramatic departure from what voters were promised when he was elected.

Yeah, I mean, I'll just add, you know, every time I talk with Republican strategists and I ask, what are the real political implications to this down the road? And they say, look, President Trump has runway to continue this thing, but it does end at certain point. Now, they say, like, a lot will depend on the economy if gas prices continue to surge for months into the summer. but also the boots on the ground thing. That is going to resonate differently with Americans if there are American lives at greater risk and also, you know, if more die. And this week, President Trump attended another dignified transfer for six more U.S. service members who were killed as a result of this war. So the costs are real. Also, gas prices on average, according to gas buddy, for a gallon of regular.

are up 98 cents over last month's average. That is, that is not insignificant when people have to fill up their tanks on a regular basis. Again, it's something that you see on huge signs. It's hard to say to people, you know, don't listen to the mainstream media. They're just lying to you. You can do that with a lot of different things that are arguable, but it's not arguable how much more money you pay when you fill up your gas tank or go to the grocery store. I mean, 98 cents a gallon, a gallon up. That means that if you've got a 12 to 16 gallon car, you're paying, you know, 12, let's say conservatively, $12 more. If you fill up once a week, it's an extra $12 a week, $24 every couple weeks, almost $50 a month. And if you do it twice a week, $100 a month, there's a lot of people pinching pennies right now wondering, why are they paying more?

Yeah. And as you say, that is something that absolutely breaks through and it hits people right where it hurts. I do want to ask about one more development this week. Joe Kent, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned this week. And he did so in a very public way with a letter. And he's gone on Tucker Carlson's show. He's gone on Megan Kelly's show. He's out there being very loud and very bold about his view that President Trump made a mistake in going into this war. that there wasn't an imminent nuclear threat from Iran. Here he was on Tucker Carlson. This is why 77 million people voted for him. It's probably not the only reason. But the no new wars put America first. Don't let us bleed out in the Middle East. That's what people voted for. And we should say that Kent is a complicated figure. He did have this very big title. He has a long service to the country. But he also traffics in

anti-Semitism and conspiracy theories and did so in that interview with Tucker Carlson. But is this a problem for the White House, for the president, that the head of the National Counterterrorism Center is saying there wasn't an imminent threat? I mean, I think you can tell that the White House sees this as a significant threat to get this from Kent by how much Trump and his top aides have immediately gone on the attack in a very swift and fierce attack against him, you know, calling him a leaker, Trump saying he's weak. I mean, he is the first senior Trump official to resign over the war. And as you point out, he wrote this really stinging rebuke of the administration, telling Trump directly that there was no imminent

threat and basically said Trump was kind of hoodwinked by Israel in a misinformation campaign. I do want to say one thing, though, I mean, while Kent is against this, while Tucker Carlson is against this, while Megan Kelly is against this, you know, polls do show that most Republicans, particularly MAGA Republicans, continue to support Trump in this war. All right. We are going to take a quick break, and we will have more in a moment. And we're back. And Domenico, I want to talk about the persuasion campaign. We talked earlier about how foreign allies are looking skeptically at this war.

There's also the matter of trying to get the American public to support it, too. This runs counter to what the president and the administration said they would focus on ahead of the midterms, the cost of living. You know, now we have a war in the Middle East driving up gas prices, which makes everything more expensive, which makes people angry. it's not exactly a way to ingratiate people when Republicans have a narrow hold on control of Congress. No, I mean, when you think about Iran, you know, it turns out that talking badly about your allies and not having tariffs as leverage and not making a moral case ahead of time might not push people to do what you want. And I think that there's a lot of things right now that Trump is facing that are out of his control. You know, psychologists talk about you can only control what you can control. and that's yourself and how you respond to things. And it has to really, really, really be grating on Trump that there are these things that are out of his control right now that are hurting him politically. Though I have to say today, he said he has never been more powerful that he is so much more powerful in his second term.

This was while signing an executive order to mandate that television networks not air other football games that might compete with the Army Navy game. Right, at that same time. But, I mean, there's some truth probably to the fact that he's more. powerful in his second term in some ways, right, because he understands the levers of power a little bit more. He understands, you know, how to get leverage over some domestic, you know, policy fronts without even needing legislation to do it, right? So there's some degree to which he is more powerful. And then there's other ways that there are things that are major things that are really out of his control. In particular, those prices that, you know, Americans say that he, because of his tariffs have made things in particular worse because of this war with Iran that they've made

gas prices worse. You know, and those headwinds add up to quite a bit in an election year. I will say, though, I mean, I think it is, you know, somewhat early, you know, we're still many months away from the midterm elections. You know, I still kind of feel like Trump does have some time here to kind of turn this around. Look, it is definitely, I think, going in a direction that he doesn't want it to be going in. I think he expected probably this would be over-sum. sooner than this. That said, when I speak with, you know, advisors and administration officials, you know, they feel like this is okay and that they still have the political backing of the American people, at least, who they need for the time being. And also feel if they can kind of

meet these objectives, you know, kind of ending the nuclear capability of Iran, knocking out some, the ballistic missiles, and essentially making Iran less of a threat than And this could be seen as a political win as well. I mean, there's a lot of uncertainty about ground troops and all those things. But just, you know, there is in that narrow view, I think there is still potential for Trump, you know, to kind of make a difference before, you know, politics really, really focus on the midterms. And the White House is very focused on the idea that MAGA is not breaking with Trump, that yes, there are loud people on the internet, but that MAGA voters are still with Trump. Trump. And the White House has said MAGA is Trump. Trump is MAGA. There is no separation. It is what he says it is. I think he has enough time to get his base on board and keep them aligned. But I think that he's committed a lot of unforced errors in putting bricks on top of each other that maybe didn't need to be put there in the first place politically when you talk to Republicans and Republican strategists who just would, especially those

on front lines in those 40 or so congressional districts. And that's why you're seeing so many Republicans, you know, go to the exits at this point because they feel what the political wins are and may be. I mean, you're certainly right. There's eight months still to go until the election, but the direction that he has pushed the Republican Party in has made it where independence, those Latinos that he had won over have slid far away from him in the polls. I want to talk about the president's leadership style and perhaps what we're seeing this week are the limits to that. He has, for the last year, plus, used force or threats of force to allies and adversaries alike. And this is also the case with Congress where he has threatened to primary Republicans who don't do what he wants. But at this moment, both with trying to. build this coalition of the willing that turns out to be unwilling to open up the Strait of Hormuz. And also with Congress, for instance, with the Save America Act, it just doesn't seem to be working in the way it has in the past.

I definitely think that it's revealed some of the weaknesses of his style, certainly on the foreign policy arena. You know, like you say, he likes to do unilateral things, bilateral things. And it's because it's where he has. has the most leverage, where the U.S. has the most leverage over other powers, smaller powers, smaller countries. And obviously, we've reported so many times about how he doesn't like alliances and multilateral organizations. Well, the problem is, you know, it's easier to bully someone who's smaller one-on-one, but it's tougher to basically bully leaders into joining a coalition. And that's really what he wants, especially when we go back to Iran and trying to get some help on clearing up the Strait of Hormuz. So it's just another example of how this style doesn't always work.

And here's a way that's, you know, really caused problems for him. Yeah, I mean, on the domestic front, it's reflected, you know, as well with the Save America Act because, again, Trump doesn't believe in collaboration. He believes in domination. And when he goes in there and says that the Senate majority leader, John Thune of South Dakota, he's got to be a leader, he said, and just get me the votes. That's not how it works, right? That's not how legislation works. You can't just, you know, make people vote the way that you want them to. Well, especially when some of those people are from the other party.

Well, yeah, I mean, there's the filibuster, which is an issue. And you have a lot of Republicans who don't want to get rid of the filibuster to do something like the Save America Act. because they see in the long run the potential for Democrats to, you know, push through legislation that they want. And you could have this real rapid back and forth swing. It's something that outgoing Senator Tom Tillis warned about from North Carolina in a statement why he would be opposing the Save America Act, even though he's in favor of a lot of the voter ID restrictions, even the proof of citizenship clause in it, you know, because he said that he had helped pass a voter ID law when he was Speaker of the House in North Carolina. All right, well, we are going to take one more quick break, and then it's time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back. And it's time for Can't Let It Go, the part of the pod where we talk about the things from the week that we just can't stop thinking about politics or otherwise. The thing I can't let go of is Cesar Chavez. This week, the New York Times came out with an absolutely stunning and devastating investigation that they worked on for five years, revealing that the,

the leader of the United Farm Workers Union, who has streets and schools and holidays named after him, that he was very credibly accused of sexual assault in multiple cases and including allegedly assaulting one of the co-leaders of that farmworker movement. Yeah, I mean, it really is kind of devastating. I mean, you're mentioning Dolores, where it, you know, essentially saying she kind of lived this with this secret. for 60 years that she was assaulted by Cessor Chavez. She told a reporter, I mean, just unbelievable, difficult stuff. You know, I thought it was interesting because I saw an L.A. Times columnist talking about and writing about this. And, you know, what he noted, I thought was interesting. He said that instead of trying to whitewash Caesar Chavez's legacy, he said that

he hopes that within the community that there's going to be a recasting, a thinking about in a complex and nuanced way. And he was drawing a parallel to the national push by Trump and others to sort of whitewash American history and cover up the warts of American history. And he was saying, I think that there can be an example set here on why it's important not to do that. Someone can have done great things in American history that help a lot of people and also done absolutely terrible things at the same time. that that complexity does exist. It's also a lesson not to deify people.

Right. Franco, what can't you let go of? I'm going to take a much lighter note, and I want to talk about shoes. Yes, please. President Trump has this strong affinity to this one brand of dress shoes. There are these black toe oxfords. They're made by Floorheim. The specific brand, Domenico, is large.

Lexington, if you want to get one. Tam, obviously, you can actually get someone as well. Our friend and colleague over at the Wall Street Journal, Alex Deary, had this, you know, kind of very inside look at how Trump likes these shoes so much that he's actually gifting them to cabinet members. He, you know, according to Alex, you know, he, you know, guesses their shoe sizes in front of them, then asks an A to put an order out. a box comes back to the White House and Trump will sometimes even sign the box with a note of, you know, gratitude before handing it over. And if you've been in the Oval Office recently, you've seen leaders wearing them, you know, J.D. Vance has been seen with them. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Defense Secretary Pete Hegsteth. It is a thing. And Rubio's shoes clearly do not fit. And yet he has to wear them because Trump expects to see them. Yeah, I was just going to say, can we talk about Rubio's shoes?

Because clearly people have been doing some photo examinations. And, you know, you can see kind of half inch gaps with the heel of Rubio's shoe to his Achilles. And it just, and you kind of wonder what the backstory is there, right? Honestly, they're like $150. That's expensive, but not that expensive where Rubio couldn't go buy his own shoes and get the right size. Yeah, but then the president would notice. How would he know? The same black shoes.

He wouldn't know. Oh, no. I think President Trump notices these things. No, he's not. How can you know? They're just shiny floor shines. Because they don't have a half inch gap at the back. Do you think he did that on purpose?

Maybe it's payback for the 2016 campaign. I mean, they talked about hands size. He made, he made RFK Jr. Eat a McDonald. Right. It's true. You're right. Domenico, what can't you let go of?

What I can't let go of is Chuck Norris. Norris, who appeared in many TV shows, uh, movies, martial artist. And he died yesterday. It was announced today. He was 86 years old. You know, thinking back on his life, the thing that I can't let go of is not Walker, Texas Ranger or all those Chuck Norris facts, but one day on the campaign trail in 2008 when I

was covering the Republican primaries in South Carolina. And guess who was staying at my hotel, but the Huckabee campaign? And that meant Chuck Norris. Because Chuck Norris was a crime. feature on the Huckabee campaign trail. What I really can't let go of, and I hear it in my head every day when somebody mentions Chuck Norris ever is him yelling across the lobby at staff on the campaign team saying, my wife needs her mucinex. Oh, gosh. Oh, she must have had some congestion. Not kidding. There was a CVS right across the street, and I just kept thinking,

this is Chuck Norris. All the facts about Chuck Norris, how he can do all these things. things. You can't go across the street and get your wife her mucinex. You got to yell at the campaign. Come on. I mean, Domenico, if I'm ever as big a deal as Chuck Norris, I would appreciate it if somebody would get me some mucinex. Go get your own, Tam. You don't want a pharmacist asking too many questions. Come on, come on. Maybe the pharmacist will want Chuck Norris to sign the mucinix box, along with some floor shines. That is all for today. Our executive producer is Mithani Maturi.

Our producers are Casey Morel and Brea Suggs. Our editor is Rachel Bay. Special thanks to Krishnadev, Kalimer, and Kelsey Snell. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. I'm Frank Ordonez. I also cover the White House. And I'm Domenico Montanaro,

senior political editor and correspondent. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.