The NPR Politics Podcast - Who's In Charge Here?

Episode Date: February 12, 2024

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is at odds with his colleagues about what the party's priorities are. And confidence in Speaker Mike Johnson is dwindling within his own after bringing a bill to the floor without enough votes to pass it. Who is really leading congressional Republicans? This episode: national political correspondent Sarah McCammon, political correspondent Susan Davis, and senior editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.This podcast was produced by Jeongyoon Han, Casey Morell & Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Erica Morrison. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, I'm Isabel. This is my mom, Sherry. We're from Northeast Connecticut. Right now, we're in our sugar shack boiling sap from our maple trees to make maple syrup. This podcast was recorded at 12.35 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday, February 12, 2024. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but we'll be waiting for the sap to reach 219.5 degrees Fahrenheit, and then it'll be maple syrup. Enjoy the show. I want some of that. That sounds awesome. I love maple syrup. I like maple syrup more than honey. That's a potentially controversial statement in this podcast. No, I understand that. In fact, there was one time I went to Vermont and I stopped at a woman's house who was selling maple syrup. I asked her, which kind is the best?

She said, you heat them up. I can drink any of them. They're good on crepes, too. We've been experimenting with that. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover politics.

I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. Republican leaders on the Hill are getting squeezed right now, and the pressure is coming from within the party. We've talked a lot on this podcast about former President Donald Trump's hold on the Republican Party. And today, we're going to really pick apart what that looks like for Republican leadership and why it matters. Sue, you've been doing some reporting on this and especially on the pressure on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. What does that pressure look like for him? You know, this has been a pressure and

attention in the Republican Party going back years, but I think it's coming to sort of a critical moment in time because of the issues. You have to think of the political timing of all this. The Senate is now debating this foreign aid package after it had been under negotiation for months. But it comes at a time where Donald Trump is now considered the de facto nominee, at least by Republicans in Capitol Hill. And it's also on an underlying policy that splits the party. And the pressure on McConnell, which has been fascinating, is he has for months been making a very passionate, continued case for the United States to continue to support Ukraine in its fight

against Russia. And this has put him at odds with the likely nominee of their party, who has a much more isolationist foreign policy view, has been very skeptical of Ukraine aid. And of course, that Ukraine aid is part of a larger funding package that also includes aid to Israel and Taiwan. And we saw in votes in the Congress over the weekend, like this issue now splits the Republican Party, the fracturing of the Republican Party, especially on foreign policy, is probably one of the most notable breaks between what I would call sort of the declining establishment wing, best represented right now by Mitch McConnell, and the ascendant, you know, more isolationist Trump wing with Trump sort of transforming the way the Republican Party approaches these issues. It's really this Trump populism, right, that we've seen crop up over the last, you know, nine years. And I would say going back to the Tea Party, frankly, where really the Republican Party, when it comes to foreign policy and economics, have seen a bit of a division with the binding agent really being social policy and culture war stuff.

And look at it this way, like Trump and McConnell don't like each other. This is it's also a contrast between Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, who has a very warm relationship. They talk a lot. They talk frequently. Trump just a couple days ago said he has great confidence in him. That is not the same in the Senate. I don't believe there's any record of Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell speaking since the January 6th attack on the Capitol. Also recall that Donald Trump attacked his wife, Elaine Chao, in rather racist terms after that. I mean, there's been a huge personal falling out between these two men. So there's no love lost. And then you also look at it this way. It's not just a presidential year. The Senate is up for grabs this year. And a lot of Republican senators are running for reelection and primary election

season is upon us. And do you want to take a vote that goes against the nominee of your party who's hugely popular with your base voters and your base voters themselves who might have an alternative if there's another Republican running on the ballot against you? Now, when it comes to McConnell, I mean, I want to step back here a little bit because while he does represent the establishment of the Republican Party today, it's not as if he has always been unwilling to break with the establishment or break with tradition. He's had a complicated relationship with Trump, wouldn't you say? I think that's very true. And I think that, you know, look, Mitch McConnell's already said again, if Donald Trump is the nominee, he will support him for president in 2024. So he's not an anti-Trumper, right? He's just an

uncomfortable Trumper. And the issue, I think think for McConnell is, look, he is the longest serving Senate leader in history. He has a very long established foreign policy record. And I think that this is just sometimes in politics, what you believe is the right thing to do goes against what's good politics for you. And this is one of those moments for Mitch McConnell. He believes very strongly that support for Ukraine is integral to U.S. national security. He does not see these things as two separate things. And a lot of senators just don't agree

with him. And to that point, we've seen even in the past couple days, senators who have been longtime critics of McConnell calling for him to step aside again or calling for new leadership in the party. So this is an ugly fight that senators are going to have to figure out. And look, there's still no guarantee at the end of the day that this Ukraine aid is going to be signed into law. It still has many mountains to climb before it can get there. Yeah, it really is emblematic of this big change within the Republican Party. I mean, I've seen McConnell even try to argue about the economics of Ukraine aid and the fact that, you know, in factories in the United States that munitions would be made, and it would be helpful to blue-collar manufacturing. But it isn't an argument

that's become mainstream. And there was a time when Mitch McConnell really would have been the messenger for the Republican Party, and it's just not the case now. His influence has certainly waned. And I wonder who would even take his place, you know, when that fight eventually happens. I mean, this is a guy who is in his 80s as well. Yeah. To Sue's point, one of the senators who's called for his departure is Utah Senator Mike Lee. Here he is on Fox News Sunday Morning Futures. Occasion after occasion, bill after bill, we've seen Senate Republican leadership joining ranks with all or most Democrats, sharply dividing Republicans, actively alienating most Republican voters,

and taking a different position than most Republican senators. Sue, is this really about a difference, a policy difference with McConnell, or is this about Donald Trump? It's about a lot of things. And with McConnell, or is this about Donald Trump? It's about a lot of things. And look, Mike Lee is recall when I say this pressure has been on McConnell for a while. If you recall, after the 2022 midterms, Rick Scott, a Republican senator from Florida, ran against him for leader and 10 Republicans voted against Mitch McConnell. Now, he certainly had a comfortable margin to still be leader. But we started to see the cracks in this unity happening at the beginning of this Congress.

And I don't think that those numbers have necessarily swelled, at least not publicly. But those critical voices are getting louder and louder. And his age is a factor. He's in his early 80s. And again, remember, guys, he's also had health problems. He was missing from the Senate for several weeks after a fall. He's had several these sort of public freezing episodes that raise all kinds of questions about his health and could

he continue in this job. So I mean, it might not be fair, but frankly, I think that's contributed to this perception of him being weaker. And I think there is a fair amount of doubt on Capitol Hill that regardless of what happens in this election, that he will either continue to serve or continue to serve in leadership. Sue, you mentioned earlier that House Speaker Mike Johnson has been closer with former President Trump than McConnell has been. I want to talk about him briefly. What is Johnson's relationship like with members of his conference? I mean, how are things going so far? Not great. I think that Mike Johnson has the benefit of some goodwill and some exhausted political minds in the House who just can't fathom going through another speaker election in the middle of a Congress.

There's a lot of, among some of them, buyer's remorse for throwing out former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Thomas Massey, who's a Republican from Kentucky last week, called it a, quote, unmitigated disaster, getting rid of the former speaker. He's frustrated some conservatives by allowing Democratic votes to move things like stopgap spending measures, although I note the alternative is a government shutdown. So just keeping the government open is the kind of thing you have to choose to do when you're speaker. But so far, he still has Trump behind him. Donald Trump says he has confidence in him. And that carries a lot of weight with members of the House, even more so than members of the Senate. But the moment of tension is going to play out here in the coming days and weeks, because the Senate does seem likely that they're going to pass this Ukraine package. And then it's what does Mike Johnson do? And look, Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican from Georgia,

said that she would consider bringing forward a motion to vacate to remove Speaker Johnson, which is the same maneuver Republicans use to remove former Speaker Kevin McCarthy from office. So neither Republican leader is in sort of a comfortable internal political management position right now. They're both getting squeezed. And, you know, the ability of either to continue serving in this Congress or the next, I think, is in doubt right now. And you've got a special election tomorrow in New York on Long Island to replace none other than George Santos, a Republican. And that would, if the Democrat there were to win, Tom Suozzi, who's a former congressman, that would shrink this already historic, historically razor thin margin for Mike Johnson to try to get anything done in a presidential election year. Good luck with that.

We're going to talk about that more in just a moment. But first, let's take a quick break. Hey there, it's Tamara Keith here to plug our latest bonus episode. We hear what it was like covering the presidential campaign trail in Nevada. The voters we've talked to have been very confused. And we would get asked, OK, well, where do I go? I wanted to vote for Donald Trump. He wasn't on the ballot. I don't know what I'm supposed to do now.

That's in our latest bonus episode, just for NPR Politics Plus supporters. If that's you, thank you. And now we have made it possible to give NPR Plus as a gift. Family, friends, fellow fans of the politics pod, you can give them the perks of NPR Plus, like bonus episodes and sponsor-free listening. Just go to plus.npr.org. And we're back. Over the weekend, Trump held a rally in Conway, South Carolina, ahead of that state's Republican primary later this month. And he commented on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, which is the joint security agreement that the U.S. and its allies in Europe have. One of the presidents of a big country stood up, said, well, sir, if we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us? I said, you didn't pay? You're delinquent? He said, yes,

let's say that happened. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills. Okay. Trump has suggested before that he tried to squeeze NATO members for more contributions to the alliance. It's important to say that NATO members don't owe the U.S. any money for their contributions to that alliance. But that said, Trump leaned into this theme a little harder this weekend. He has not said something like this before, this idea that he would encourage an attack from Russia on one of our allies. Sue, how have Republicans been reacting to this? The Senate happened to be in session this weekend. So, of course, senators were asked about it. And a lot of, you know, they just sort of shrug at this point. How many times

did Donald Trump say something provocative, offensive, changing U.S. policy that required us to go to other Republicans on the Hill and say, what do you think about this? But now I think he should be judged a little bit differently. Trump is running a much more serious presidential campaign operation. He's got, you know, policy think tank people building up a second term agenda, like this sort of fly by the seat of the pants element of his first campaign is very different now. And I think he's talking about policies in a serious way. He wants to fill an administration full of people who share his worldview. He's campaigning to take very aggressive steps to do that. I think it's more likely that his comments should be taken literally and seriously in the 2024 context than maybe the

2016 context. Not to mention that the whole world hears that when he says things like this, and he has been president of the United States and could be again. Yeah, this idea that, oh, he doesn't mean that, or, you know, he won't really do that when he's president, this idea that, you know, he'll be surrounded by adults. No, I think that the serious thing here is that he's actually realized, as we've talked about in this podcast previously, that he doesn't want the people who have been traditionalists who were in his first term. A lot of people who he's now saying, you know what? I don't want those folks around me.

I want people who are loyal to me who believe what I believe. So if Trump's saying that he's going to allow Russia to go into another country or give up a piece of Ukraine or whatever other provocative thing he might say. I think people should probably believe him. The other thing I think is important, like in the real world consequence of this, like Trump may well win this election. And if he does, he very likely takes a Republican Congress with him. And a Republican controlled Congress and a Trump, the trifecta in Washington is not going to approve any more money for Ukraine. I mean, the party is very clear that that the majority of Republicans don't support that direction anymore. So in terms of like the contrast between the two candidates and the path forward, I think this is one of those areas where, you know, support for NATO and sort of the U.S.-European alliance is one really stark contrast.

Before we go, I do want to talk a little bit more about Congress and the makeup of Congress. Let's talk about upcoming elections, which might just change what the House and Senate look like. Starting with news that former Republican governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan, has announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate. And this is for a seat currently held by a Democrat. Domenico, what's pretty significant because he was a very popular governor in Maryland, which is considered a fairly liberal state. But this was a trend. There were Republicans, we talked about this in prior podcasts, that there were Republicans in quote unquote liberal states who had among the highest approval ratings in the country and were always dismissed as potential presidential candidates because they could never get through a primary, which is absolutely true. But Larry Hogan then coming back and potentially running statewide for a Senate seat, it takes away the ability, number one, for a Democrat to walk into that seat. It also means that the Democrats are going to have to spend a lot of money because Hogan has a lot of resources. He's got a well-established infrastructure of

donors within the state, and he has a reservoir of goodwill and positive support. So he's certainly going to make it a race, if not potentially win the race, and we know how close the Senate is. And Sue, tomorrow is the special election to fill the vacancy in New York's Nassau County, left by Republican George Santos, who, of course, was ousted from Congress last year. Why is this race important? And what are the consequences, the larger consequences for the House? Well, I think special elections are always interesting because it allows both parties to sort of do a trial run for their messages for the general election. And I think whoever wins this election, this is a race where immigration and border messages have been featured significantly.

This is a congressional district that voted narrowly for Joe Biden. If they lose there, I think the Democrats are going to hit a little bit of a panic mode that the border and immigration fight is working against them. And the reverse is true. If Democrats win there, I think they might feel a little bit more emboldened on the issue that that might not be as much of a weak spot as they perceive it to be. I do always add this caution with special elections that we can't draw grand conclusions from relatively minor events. But these are the kind of elections that I think are going to give us at least a little bit of a temperature check on which way a tight swing district is going to be leaning this November. That's the show for today. I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign.

I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. Thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.