The NPR Politics Podcast - Why Does Biden Stay Quiet On Trump's Legal Woes?

Episode Date: August 2, 2023

Donald Trump continues to raise money and consolidate support on the back of his mounting criminal indictments — obstacles that would probably sink any other campaign. Meanwhile, President Biden has stayed nearly silent on the charges against Trump, despite Biden's 2020 campaign push branding Trump as an existential threat to American democracy. Why is he reticent now? This episode: political correspondent Ashley Lopez, White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.The podcast is produced by Elena Moore and Casey Morell. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for this podcast and the following message come from the NPR Wine Club, which has generated over $1.75 million to support NPR programming. Whether buying a few bottles or joining the club, you can learn more at nprwineclub.org slash podcast. Must be 21 or older to purchase. This is Sarah in Queens, Citi Field to be exact, thinking of Domenico Montanaro, fellow Queens native and long-suffering Mets fan. This podcast was recorded at 1241 p.m. on Wednesday, August 2nd, 2023. Things may have changed by the time players the Mets traded away between the time she recorded that and the time that we're recording this. Because it has been a fire sale. It is sad. But it is what it is. When you're a Mets fan, you expect the worst and we're getting it. Yeah, you're resilient. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. I'm Franco Ordonez. I cover the White House. And I'm senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro, who also

is a suffering Mets fan. So this time next year, former President Donald Trump could be on trial in as many as four separate criminal cases. He is also, though, who knows what the future holds, on track to be the Republican presidential nominee. So, Domenico, I want to play a game of imagination here. So, like, let's pretend Donald Trump is not the candidate. We know him to be, you know, someone who has been defying political odds amidst of like a barrage of scandal. Instead, he's a generic Republican politician. He's like, you know, any other lawmaker. And in this scenario, I mean, how would being in the midst of a number at this point of serious legal dramas impact your chances of actually taking office?

I'm going to quote John Boehner, the former speaker of the House, who would say, if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a wonderful Christmas. So it's a ridiculous hypothetical because Trump is what he is. And he's been able to amass the kind of groundswell of support because of the very nature of his ability to get people to believe the stuff he says, even though, you know, especially when it comes to the election, a lot of it were lies. And to the point of what you're saying, that like if this were any other politician facing these kinds of serious charges, yes, it would do him no good. He'd probably be written off entirely. But those are only people who have no leverage, no support and who likely won't win. And the opposite is true of Trump.

Yeah. And I mean, obviously, Trump is not like any other candidate. And even something as big as the charges that came down yesterday, we can imagine that will even help him consolidate support as he has done up until now. He's been at least successfully convinced Republican voters at this point that everything that's come down is political prosecution. I mean, I wonder where we go from here. Well, he's very well insulated himself with a lot of the things that you're talking about. We did see a little bit of slippage in the latest NPR-PBS News-Hour Marist poll in the percentage of Republicans who think that he's done nothing wrong that dropped about nine points from 50 percent to 41 percent. But still, overwhelmingly, the majority of Republicans, even in that survey, said that they want him to be their standard

bearer. They believe a lot of the things that he said about this being a quote unquote witch hunt, that there are deep state conspiracies and people out to get him. Mostly it's that people have put the T-shirt on and it's really hard when people put the T-shirt on to take it off and say, we've got to abandon this guy. Yeah. I mean, it's just, I find it just so fascinating in how he has been able to essentially condition his supporters to write off basically anything, any allegation against him. And he's done it over and over and over again. And everything that happens, he's been able to kind of fold into each indictment, each investigation, each new finding, video finding, audio finding. He's able to fold into this narrative that he has, at least for his Republican base, successfully used to kind of make this case that he is a victim here of a political persecution.

Yeah. And I mean, to drive home this point, Franco, like this is not just helpful. It's also a fundraising bonanza for him. I mean, the days he's been indicted, he's raised a lot of money for his campaign. It has been a big bonanza. I mean, he had one of his biggest weeks after he was indicted in early March on the hush money payments. The campaign at the time said it raised more than $4 million in the first 24 hours, then another million dollars in the second 24 hours. He raised more money $4 million in the first 24 hours, then another million dollars in the second 24 hours. He raised more money after the indictment related to the handling of his classified documents. I will note that these peaks, these ebbs and flows, they were definitely peaks when these indictments came down. The second one was a little bit lower. So it's going to be very

interesting to watch after this one. Where are those numbers going? But there is no question that he has gotten financial bumps from these indictments. And it's also, as Domenico was saying earlier, reflected in the polls. He has gotten bumps in the polls after each one, you know, and just one of the real clear politics averages back in March was 43%. After that first indictment, it jumped past 50. And it's been in 50 and rising after each one. You know, the thing is, you can't beat someone with no one. And while there might be some degree

of a pile on effect and seeing hints of that, and it could be something that, you know, does hamper him a little bit. And he seems that this could be a ceiling and only gets a little bit lower and lower from here. But at the same time, he has a very high floor. And if there isn't someone else who the base is in love with and they don't take on Trump directly, it's going to be very difficult for anybody other than Trump to be the nominee. And they're definitely not taking him on directly. Yeah. Which I mean, brings the question brings up the question, which is like, what would be the most effective way that would make Trump vulnerable? Well, I think the very difficult thing is that they have a

there are a lot of people in this primary, and half of it is basically dominated by Trump. And that's enough to win a primary, especially a crowded one, where these debates are going to be really, really important coming up in just a few weeks here and seeing how or if any of these candidates are going to be able to make the case against Trump. Are they going to say that they think that his actions were the right actions on January 6th? Do they believe that or do they just pivot back as they have been to the Department of Justice having a quote unquote double standard as they see it. And when they say that, they are specifically echoing Trump's own message that this is a political persecution, that this is the Biden administration, in Trump's words, not only going after him, but going after Republican voters.

And these other candidates, these rivals have basically echoed that script. Now, you are seeing inklings inching of going against Trump, trying to distinguish themselves, most notably last night and today with former Vice President Pence, you know, kind of taking on Trump after this January 6 indictment. But you did hear from Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis. He talked about what Domenico just said, this this two tiered government, this weaponization of government. And also you heard that from, interestingly, Senator Tim Scott, who also talked about the weaponization of government, both of them echoing kind of Trump's line. And as Republican strategists tell me, you cannot beat Trump without going after Trump, but without taking him on directly. And they're not doing that. Yeah, they're not going through Trump, right? To beat Trump is to go. You have to go through Trump. And like you've said, Franco, and I've heard you talk about the fact that nobody's really talking about the substance here when it comes to the Trump defense. They're not saying he didn't necessarily do each of the things that are outlined that are pretty steep allegations in these in this indictment.

And that's going to be sort of the way that they pitch this messaging to the base to say that there that the government is coming after Trump. There's a double standard, et cetera, et cetera. But they're not taking on the idea of what the government is actually saying, that Trump tried to defraud the United States and Americans out of their votes. Instead, they're just trying to deflect. Yeah. And not only that, Trump continues to kind of make do some of the same allegations that he is accused of doing in the indictment. All right. Well, this is a great place for a quick break. More in a second. And we're back. Well, let's pivot and talk about President Biden. So far, he has not been talking about these cases at all and instead, you know, focusing on his own administration and his record. I mean, why is that? Domenico, we'll start with you.

Well, you know, I think the main thing is that the president doesn't want to appear to be influencing what the Justice Department does. I mean, I think the number one thing here is that they want to show independence for the Justice Department, that this is really Merrick Garland, the attorney general's call to be able to then give space to the prosecutor in this case, Jack Smith, and that there's no interference from the White House. Unlike, as Democrats will point back to, President Trump, you know, has laid out in the indictment that came out yesterday, as the government alleges that he tried to actually replace the attorney general at the time, Bill Barr, with somebody who was friendlier to him and who would say that there was widespread election fraud when there wasn't. And that's what President Biden says every time he's asked about these questions of a partisan investigation. He repeatedly says that he has never had any

conversation about this case, these cases with the Attorney General Merrick Garland. And look, Merrick Garland, you know, he picked Jack Smith as a special counsel purposely to insulate his office, the administration from these kind of partisan attacks. Obviously, though, it doesn't necessarily matter when it comes to Trump and his surrogates and many House Republicans, because they have repeatedly attacked Jack Smith. They've repeatedly attacked the Biden administration and essentially calling them, you know, partisan warriors. Yeah, which makes me think, I mean, could there be drawbacks to letting President Trump be the only person sort of painting a picture of what this investigation is? Or do you think this is actually a smart move and like, you know, Biden should probably continue doing this for the, I guess, duration? I mean, I think what Biden is

trying to do simply is trying to take a kind of a big picture look at this. He knows that there is a segment of the population, the Republican base, that no matter what happens, no matter what is done, they are going to see this as a partisan investigation. But he is also, I would argue, thinking about in the campaign, his campaign is thinking about these independent swing voters who are concerned about the ongoing drama that surrounds former President Donald Trump. And I think he is taking a bit of a long game, a long approach here, recognizing that he cannot convince the far right, but he's thinking about the, you know, the wider swath of Americans who are continue to be concerned about this. And even, you know, the recent NPR poll showed that, you know, a majority of Americans, including 52% of independents,

do feel that former President Trump did something illegal. Illegal, which is amazing that you've got that many people. And yet we've got this divergence, as we've talked about before, between the fact that Trump's base is so strongly loyal to him versus, you know, the difficulty that he's having in being able to expand that brand. In fact, the independents and Democrats in particular, you know, looking at Trump's brand like it's toxic and that they're repelled from it. And I'll just add, I mean, there's one thing that this has clearly benefited Trump among the Republican base.

It's definitely benefiting as he reaches for the nomination in the Republican primary. It's going to be a whole new ballgame, though, once if he wins and if we get to the general election. And these tactics are not necessarily going to work in the same way. That said, anything can happen in a general election. OK, let's leave it there for today. And a brief note, we will be late in your feed tomorrow as we wait for the former president to appear in court. We'll bring you more on that as it happens. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the White House. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.