The NPR Politics Podcast - Will A Government Shutdown Be Avoided?

Episode Date: January 8, 2024

With only 11 days to go until a possible government shutdown, congressional leaders have agreed to a topline budget. But, it resembles one that didn't pass last spring. Will Congress make its deadline? This episode: senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, congressional correspondent Deirdre Walsh, and senior political editor & correspondent Domenico Montanaro.This episode was edited by Erica Morrison. It was produced by Jeongyoon Han and Casey Morell. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Eva in Indiana. I just closed on my first house at 21 years old. This podcast was recorded at 1.21 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday, January 8th. Things may have changed by the time you hear it, but I'll still be very busy pulling up carpet on my lunch breaks. Okay, here's the show. Oh, all that optimism and all that excitement about home improvement. Sounds like it's a fixer-upper. Good luck. Yeah, but congratulations. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. Congress is back this week, and they've got a deal on government funding. House and Senate leaders announced it last night with some fanfare, but alas, it is less than meets the eye. You've heard this before, but the clock is ticking, and without a lot more agreement, a partial government shutdown looms just 11 days away. Deirdre, what did they actually announce and how excited should anyone be? Well, they announced a framework, which is significant, but there's still a lot of details and a lot of legislating to go. And as you noted, the first deadline to avoid a partial government shutdown is January 19th. The framework that Senate Majority

Leader Chuck Schumer and House Speaker Mike Johnson announced is overall spending levels for federal agencies, $886 billion for defense programs, $773 billion for non-defense programs. That is largely sort of the framework that President Biden and former Speaker, then House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, agreed to when they hammered out a debt deal last spring. So this sort of just sticks to that deal. It does add a couple of provisions to it. It accelerates cuts to the IRS that were supposed to go over two years into one year, and it rescinds about $6 billion in unspent COVID funds. So wait, three months after the original deadline, they have just now agreed on the basic beginning part that will then allow them to craft the legislation that still has to be

passed? You got it. Top line spending numbers are the agreement, but the details will be in the dozen appropriations bills that fund all the different federal agencies. And the way they set up the deadlines, the first January 19th is four major spending bills. If they don't pass those, and these are sort of, quote unquote, the easier ones to get done, things for like military construction projects, energy projects, those need to get passed and signed by the president by January 19th. And then the rest of the spending bills need to get done and signed by the president by February 2nd. If none of that happens, we're looking at a full government shutdown in early February. I mean, are they optimistic that they'll be

able to meet that deadline given that we're so at a full government shutdown in early February. I mean, are they optimistic that they'll be able to meet that deadline, given that we're so close to it? I think the real issue is what happens in the House of Representatives. Both the Senate and the House are operating on razor-thin margins. But we've all seen the political dynamics in the House of Representatives, where the House Republican majority has a very slim margin, about three seats right now. And it only takes one House Republican to decide they're unhappy with the way the Speaker's operating and potentially, you know, move to get rid of

the Speaker. That's, I mean, the deal that was announced yesterday is modeled on a deal that was essentially Kevin McCarthy's undoing. So we'll have to see what the mood is like. I mean, in Washington, these kinds of spending bills are always opposed by those on the far right and a lot of times those on the far left. People are unhappy with funding levels being too much or too little. And they have to be passed with bipartisan majorities. I mean, that's the way we avoid shutdowns. I expect that will happen again with this deal. The issue is, is there any fallout for House Speaker Mike Johnson? Right. Because if you pass something with a majority, but that majority has a lot of Democrats in it, that's not what Republicans signed up for. Right. Or at least

some of them. Right. And I think there's an issue that's really driving unrest on the far right right now. And that is the situation at the southwest border. In the last couple of months, we've seen record numbers of people crossing the border and even folks inside the Biden administration acknowledging that there need to be some kind of reforms to border policies to get a handle on the number of migrants coming in and how they're being processed. There are a range of Republicans who want either a deal on some kind of changes or won't accept anything other than the partisan House bill that passed last year with zero Democrats. That is a total nonstarter in the Senate.

So I think the issue of the border will be a big issue in terms of how this spending deal shakes out and whether or not it can pass. We're going to talk more about the immigration talks. But Domenico, I do want to ask you, you know, we've talked a lot on this podcast about countdowns to government shutdown, because it seems like there is a new countdown to shutdown every few months or every few weeks, depending on the season. What are the potential political consequences of that? I assume many people in the public aren't even paying attention anymore. Are there consequences? As far as political consequences go writ large, I know certainly moderate members of the Republican conference are concerned about how they're going to appear. And this is what they've continued to be over and over again,

especially in the Trump era and since the rise of the Tea Party, of being concerned that during those congressional elections that they're going to be in a difficult spot, especially when it comes thing to add to the list that President Biden is going to use against, even if it's not Donald Trump, the Republican Party writ large as being MAGA extremists. Dominica, before we get to the break, I do want to ask you, Congress seems to be careening from one manmade crisis to another. And it's an election year now. How are voters likely to react to this? Well, I mean, there's the potential that people are kind of building calluses when it comes to shutdowns because, you know, it just it seems to be happening more frequently than it has in previous years, or the sort of level of dysfunction given the margins being as close as they are. So, you know, I think that the views of both parties are mostly locked in. And I know that people in the middle,

not thrilled about the potential for, you know, there being another headline of Congress not getting anything done, because that only hurts them back in their districts. And in a presidential election year, it's a pretty big deal when you've got one side, the Democrats trying to say that the other side really doesn't want to negotiate, doesn't want to get anything done. And that's a thing that we've heard repeatedly over and over again, when really Republicans should be focusing on, as they continue to say, Republican strategists behind the scenes, the economy and how people feel about it, even though the economy, we've seen some stronger signs of late. Yeah. All right. Well, we're going to take a quick break and we'll be right back.

And we're back. And Deirdre, I want to ask you, Speaker Mike Johnson has not been the speaker for very long, but he's now agreed to budget numbers that look very similar to the numbers that his predecessor agreed to that, as you said, kicked off his downfall. Right. So what does that mean for Mike Johnson? Are there people looking to oust him? Is he at risk? Should he be worried?

Is he behaving like he's worried? Right now, there's no one calling to, you know, get rid of Speaker Johnson. There's no one talking about going to the floor and filing a motion to vacate the chair, which is what Matt Gaetz did, which caused the downfall of Kevin McCarthy. I think a lot of conservatives really like Johnson. They think he is more conservative than Kevin McCarthy is on a lot of issues. But on spending, a lot of them are saying that this is the same thing that McCarthy negotiated. And there's a lot of criticism. And there's a lot of disappointment. And you see some on social media saying, this is a failure for the speaker. This is a terrible deal. Texas Republican Chip Roy warned. And there were a handful of House Republicans who accompanied the speaker on

a visit to the southwest border last week, who did a press conference even before he spoke to the media, and were already saying, you know, no border shutdown, let's shut down the government. So I think there is an element of the right that is very upset with the speaker. There's no evidence that there is going to be the same kind of consequence for the speaker, but it's still early. And I think the one thing that the speaker is suggesting to his conference is they still have time to fight for policy writers in each of these spending bills. You know, those are, you know, conservative policy provisions they want to attach to the must pass spending bills. Those are going nowhere in the Senate. But that is one place where he can at least address some of the anger in the right and say, I'm fighting for this policy to defund, you know, this program or that program. Even though most folks on the Hill recognize in divided government, those things are not going to be feeding his conference, you know, is certainly something that Republicans

are prone to consuming, especially in things like, you know, conferences like CPAC and the Conservative Political Action Conference, where they get up there and make these speeches and, you know, have this kind of rhetoric. But the problem with a speakership position is it's not just about rhetoric. It's also about actually making policy and doing the kinds of things that the right thinks is what is right. And, you know, it's not just the same as being able to get up there and say, we have to fight for X. When you say I have to fight for X, and you're the speaker, that means putting forward legislation that the right can get behind. And that's a much more difficult proposition than just, you know, say, running for office. I imagine there might be, I don't know, an impeachment vote of some kind or contempt

charges for the president's son, Hunter. I think that's a good point, Tam. Those are two things that are on the calendar when the House gets back this week. The House Republicans are moving forward to bring up articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas. That's something the base and the far right in the House have wanted for months. And after Hunter Biden declined to attend a closed door deposition by the committees investigating the president, he offered to testify in public, not at a closed door deposition, which House Republicans wanted to do first, there will be a vote on holding Hunter Biden in contempt. Those votes come around the same time that Congress needs to pass these spending bills that are making many on the far right unhappy. I mean, Johnson may have a little bit of a buffer because, you know, I mean,

I think that Republicans were a little bit singed given the last speakership problems that we saw, you know, the 15 rounds. More than a little bit. Right. And, you know, to get McCarthy then ousted as the first speaker, to go on that sort of merry-go-round and do it again, I think that that is something that in a presidential election year would not be the best look, certainly for independents. And I think that Johnson's

probably going to have a little bit of space to be able to try to pass something that keeps the government open while then, you know, maybe trying to Hunter Biden his way through the election. I don't know. Deirdre, I want to just dig in on something that you mentioned before, which is that there are these ongoing talks on the Senate side about some sort of a deal that would include providing support to Ukraine and Israel, which President Biden wants really badly. And also some sort of border security, border policy, immigration policy changes that Republicans really want. How are those negotiations going and what's on the table? I mean, they've been slow but steady. And we got a hint over the weekend, the top Republican

negotiator, Jim Lankford from Oklahoma, signaled they could release text of a deal as early as this week. This is not a big immigration deal. We're not talking about comprehensive immigration. We're not talking about legalization. What this group of bipartisan negotiators who are talking to the White House and to Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas specifically, he's been in these talks, is addressing asylum rules, addressing who can enter the U.S., who can be eligible to claim asylum and remain in the U.S. as those claims of asylum are processed. What they're trying to do is to lower the record numbers of those migrants who have been entering the border over the last couple of months and try to lower those and get a better handle

on how the system is working and enforcing the existing asylum rules. there isn't a lot of money to pay to process those who've waited for asylum hearings. That's a big problem. So this is a pretty narrow deal, but they are talking about potentially reinstating Trump era policies that a lot of Republicans support. Yet, there's already a lot of criticism of this deal from conservatives in the House specifically, saying even before they've seen it, they don't think it's going to be good enough. So we'll see. I think if the Senate can pass something with a fairly big bipartisan majority, there could be pressure on the House to act. But I've covered immigration, and I know you all have covered immigration reform attempts over many years, and it's been decades since anything significant's happened.

So I think we'll have to see what the details are before we sort of see what the path is. Well, and this is already being criticized on the left too, right? Yeah. I mean, immigration is a huge issue for President Biden. I mean, it's a big problem for him, not just because from a policy standpoint with the record number of migrants that have come into the country being bused by some governors to other a really key constituency in Latinos. And we've seen a lot of Latino members of Congress who are not happy with the potential compromises that the president could make. And also, though, how to balance his handling of immigration, which is among one of the lowest rated issues for his job approval on his handling of this issue. So, you know, it's a really tricky spot for the

president. He's going to want to look tough and say that he's doing everything he can to keep the border secure. But then you have to also balance your base. And that's a really important thing in a presidential election year. The other thing that makes this thing so tricky, as Tim noted earlier, is that this issue is being tied to the billions of dollars in aid for Ukraine and Israel that the president is pushing for. And if they can't get agreement on this immigration deal, it seems unlikely that any of that aid is going to get approved by Congress. Deirdre, given that the president does need a solution on immigration and House Republicans and Senate Republicans want one very badly, Is there a place for agreement here?

I think there is. But I think the other question we still don't know the answer to is, do enough Republicans want to vote for a solution or are more Republicans eager to have the issue to use against President Biden in the 2024 election and in congressional races around the country where border security is still a top issue. All right. Well, we're going to leave it there for today. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thanks, as always, for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.