The Opinions - Thomas Friedman: ‘This Is Code Red Time in the Middle East’

Episode Date: October 1, 2024

Thomas Friedman, an Opinion columnist and Middle East correspondent, is keenly aware of the many red lines that have been crossed in the growing conflict between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. He says, after Iran’s latest attack on Israel, anything is possible — from symbolic retaliation to the bombing of a nuclear facility. Hear why he believes that “this really is the most dangerous moment in the modern Middle East.”Thoughts? Email us at [e-mail]  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This is The Opinions, a show that brings you a mix of voices from New York Times opinion. You've heard the news. Here's what to make of it. I'm Thomas Friedman, and I'm the Foreign Affairs columnist for the New York Times. Well, it's Tuesday at 4.30, and what's happened today is really very momentous. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards launched a missile barrage at Israel at 7.30 p.m. Israel time. in retaliation for the Israeli killing of the Iranian proxy militia leader in Lebanon, Hassan Nasrullah, and also for the head of the Quds Force, Iran's kind of foreign legion, who was killed alongside Nosrallah. So you see how much the Iranians are embedded with Hezbollah literally on the ground.

And this was their retaliation. Most of the missiles were intercepted by the Israeli Air Force. It was quite well anticipated. There was damage and maybe a few injuries. But it now has set up a situation where the Israeli cabinet has been meeting to decide what, if any, a retaliation Israel should undertake. And that can range from another symbolic retaliation as they did after the April 13th Iranian missile and drone attack. All the way, I would suggest to partnering with the United States,

I would suggest as a possibility, I'm not recommending this, all the way to the population. possibility of an Israeli or U.S.-Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear facility. I was tipped off by Israeli sources that the Iranian missile attack was imminent that was based on their own intelligence sources. And I think the reason they tip me off is that they actually wanted to see it in the New York Times because they wanted the Iranians to see it. And they were actually hoping that it would deter them from undertaking the attack. It's pretty clear from my sources that

this was an attack by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, not the formal Iranian army, and that apparently the president of Iran, who was a moderate in that context, only found out about an hour before. And so you can see with all these penetrations Israel's undertaken of Iran and its proxy ally, Hezbollah, and Lebanon, Iranian officials now, they must have a real hard time trusting each other because they have no idea who's working for the Israelis and who isn't because their system is so penetrated and that has to be causing complications. The stakes here couldn't be higher. This really is the most dangerous moment in the modern Middle East because we're talking about the prospects of two major powers having a missile war with each other

and at the same time one of those powers Israel already has a nuclear weapon and Iran is on the verge of getting one. So it doesn't get any more dangerous than that. At the same time, it's an incredibly plastic moment, maybe the most plastic since the 1991 Gulf War, which then led to the Oslo agreements, and that it is possible with the right kind of diplomacy that combined with military action that, you know, you could get a real opening in the region here. And I have no idea whether Israel is going to retaliate against Iran, a minor or major, and whether the United States will participate or actually inhibit Israel from doing so. And I'm not advocating any position, but I would say if Israel does decide to respond,

and I can't imagine they would do it alone without American help, I'm not sure they have all the bombs they would need to do it. I believe any American initiative, military initiative vis-a-I-Ran, should be accompanied by the Biden administration recognizing the Palestinian authority as a Palestinian state and making clear that if we are out to diminish Iran's military potential, it is not to make the world safe for Israeli settlements

and for Bibi Netanyahu's Messianic cabinet is to do just the opposite. It's to pave the way for a broader regional solution. My hopes and my fears are all bundled together. Look, there's no question that Iran's on the verge of getting a nuclear bomb, and that is not a good thing. Look at Putin threatening to use a nuclear weapon tactically in the Ukraine war. If you think you have problems with Iran today, if it gets a nuclear bomb, that would be not a good thing for the region.

At the same time, a war, a giant war, you start with Iran, a country that big, with that many missiles, and you have no idea where that ends and how far that goes. And who jumps in? Do the Russians somehow start helping Iran? I don't know. This is really code red time in the Middle East and that what we've seen really since October 7 as we come up to the first anniversary

is people just crossing red lines in every direction. You have Israeli settlers who have been crossing red lines in the West Bank. You have Hamas crossed a terrible red line. Not so much it's an attack on Israel, it's done that before on October 7th, but the viciousness of the attack, killing kids in front of their parents,

parents in front of their kids, sexually abusing women, non-combatants. Israel, 40,000 casualties, Palestinian civilians and soldiers killed. That's a lot of people. Destruction of maybe 70% of all the housing stock in Gaza, never seen that before. Now, then the pager attack by Israel against Hisbalah and the killing of Hisbalah's leader, never thought Israel would cross that red line. At the same time, Hezbollah, entering the war on Amasa's side and depopulating northern Israel, forcing 60 to 70,000 Israelis out of their homes now for a year. And finally, this kind of missile exchange between Israel and Iran. You start crossing all those red lines, you kind of get used to it. And at the

end of the day, there are no more red lines. And when that happens, watch out. If you like this show, follow it on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts. This show is produced by Derek Arthur, Sophia Alvarez Boyd, Bishaka, Bishakad Durba, Phoebe, Christina Samuelski, and Jillian Weinberger. It's edited by Kari Pitkin, Alison Bruzek, and Annie Rose Strasser. Engineering, mixing, and original music by Isaac Jones, Sonia Herrero, Pat McCusker, Carol Saburo, and Afim Shapiro. Additional music by Amin Sahota. The fact check team is Kate Sinclair, Mary Marge Locker, and Michelle Harris.

Audience Strategy by Shannon Busta, Christina Samueluski, and Adrian Rivera. The executive producer of Times Opinion Audio is Annie Rose Dresser.