The Opinions - Why Trump Is Doing Better Than Polls Suggest

Episode Date: October 22, 2024

Many undecided voters aren’t undecided; they’re just uncomfortable, Patrick Healy, the deputy Opinion editor, argues. In this episode of “The Opinions,” he says that “uncomfortable Trump voters” — people who don’t want to admit that they’re going to vote for Donald Trump — could end up costing Kamala Harris the election.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This is The Opinions, a show that brings you a mix of voices from New York Times Opinion. You've heard the news. Here's what to make of it. I'm Patrick Healy, deputy editor of New York Times Opinion. I've covered American politics for decades as a reporter, an editor, and running our focus groups for Times Opinion. With election night just about two weeks away, I'm looking at what matters most in this final, crucial stretch for the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. So I have this theory about undecided voters, and it's this, they're not that undecided. Instead, they're mostly people who will vote for Donald Trump, but they just don't want to

admit it to pollsters, or even to themselves yet. In 2016, we saw a phenomenon that we called quiet Trump voters, voters who didn't want to tell pollsters that they were going to vote for Trump. In 2024, I think the phenomenon that we have are uncomfortable Trump voters. They're people who are going to vote for Trump, but they're just so uncomfortable with him, with his record, with January 6th, that they're not talking about their support for him, at least yet. This is not a complicated choice between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The voters who would be with Kamala Harris, I think, are already with her. When I look at undecided voters, I see them being driven by the economy and fear and how they're feeling right toward the end of the election.

These voters want change. And when they look at Kamala Harris, even though she has a credible economic pitch, many of them still see four more years of the Biden-Harris administration. Kamala Harris has tried to develop an economic pitch to convince voters that she'll bring down inflation, but it's just hasn't been persuasive yet. I see no clear sign in the battleground states that her economic message is convincing large numbers of undecided and swing voters that she'll be better on the economy than Trump.

Right now, the polls in the seven battleground states show a dead heat between Trump and Harris, but I also think his support in these battleground states and Kamala Harris's challenges in them aren't fully being captured by the polls. Just take Michigan, which is such an important state for Kamala Harris, and is one of the most traditional Democratic battleground states. Trump has been inching ahead in the polls, and you're also seeing these variables like Jill Stein's candidacy there, Cornell West's candidacy in Michigan. The question of whether Arab American voters are going to turn out for Kamala Harris, the way that they've done for Democrats in the past.

And the questions about whether black men in Michigan are going to support Harris, the way again they've supported Democrats in the past. Michigan has always been such a bellwether for Democrats, and after months of campaigning with a lot of energy and a lot of focus on Michigan, you're still seeing Kamala Harris struggling to build any kind of sustainable lead in Michigan. I really think that shows us something. So, as I said, I think there are two things that this election is going to come down to for a lot of undecided voters and swing voters.

And it's the economy and fear. There's no other way to say it than this. Trump is running as an authoritarian. He's trying to make people afraid and scared by what he portrays as the near collapse of America. The sense that there's an enemy within, as he says, that you can't trust your fellow citizens, that you can't trust Democrats.

It's an us-again-them strategy. And in a time of stress and anxiety about the economy, about immigration in the border, about wars overseas, and authoritarian's appeal can work with a lot of voters. I think you're going to see Trump's fearmongering reach a real fever pitch this week as he campaigns in North Carolina and Georgia and Nevada. He's going to be before a lot of social conservative groups, religious voters, and he's also going to be trying to make his case to black and Latino men who've been moving toward him, in part because of this fear that Trump is trying to hit. The end of the day, this poses a real threat to Kamala Harris. She cannot afford for this to be a fear versus more of the same election. If you like this show, follow it on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts.

This show is produced by Derek Arthur, Sophia Alvarez Boyd, Veshaka, Fiby Lett, Christina Samuoski, and Jillian Weinberger. It's edited by Kari Pitkin, Alison Bruzek, and Annie Rose Strasser. Engineering, mixing, and original music by Isaac Jones, Sonia Herrero, Pat McCusker, Carol Saburo, and Afim Shapiro.

Additional music by Amin Sahota. The fact check team is Kate Sinclair, Mary Marge Locker, and Michelle Harris. Audience Strategy by Shannon Busta, Christina Samuelski, and Adrian Rivera. The executive producer of Times Opinion Audio is Annie Rose Dresser. Thank you.