The Paikin Podcast - Kory Teneycke: Why Doug Ford Keeps Winning

Episode Date: January 19, 2026

Kory Teneycke, senior advisor to Premier Doug Ford, joins Steve to discuss the Premier, his “awful” first year in government, how he turned it around and won three straight majorities, the Greenbelt and Skills Development Fund controversies, and Ford’s earlier praise for Donald Trump. They then discuss if Ford has any designs on federal politics, the terrible relationship between him and Pierre Poilievre, Teneycke’s remarks of “campaign malpractice” during the last federal election, and the different types of conservatism that exist across Canada. Follow The Paikin Podcast:PATREON: patreon.com/thepaikinpodcastAPPLE: https://apple.co/4m81G7KSPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/1OhwznC...X: x.com/ThePaikinPodINSTAGRAM: instagram.com/thepaikinpodcastBLUESKY: bsky.app/profile/thepaikinpodcast.bsky.socialEmail us at: [e-mail]

Hi, everybody. Steve Paken here. I have known the last nine premiers of Ontario going back more than four decades. And I can tell you this, no one had a worse first year in office than Doug Ford. Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong, and the premier looked lost. But obviously, he has turned it around, and in the nearly eight years he's been premier, he's won three straight majority governments, which no premier had done in this province since the 1950s. Today, a deep dive into how that happened with one of the Premier's closest advisors. Corey Tonight, coming right up, one-on-one on the Paken podcast. We are pleased to welcome to the Paken podcast, the senior advisor to Premier Doug Ford,

head of Rubicon strategies, and of course, 25% of everybody's favorite political podcast, The Curse of Politics hosted by David Hurley. There's Corey tonight. Corey, how are you? Nice to see you. I'm doing great, buddy. How are you doing? I'm doing just fine. And in fact, I want to let you know, I am drinking my tea today because of you in a great cup 95 mug, which, of course, was held in the province of Saskatchew on your home province.

So there you go. Very good. Well, I'm having tea too, but I don't have such a good cup. I'd have to go and raid Hurley's office probably to get a rider's cup of some kind. I'm sure he probably only has about 20 in there. Right on. I very much want to do a deep dive on Doug Ford with you. And you are the best person, I think, to do it with.

So let's start here. How did you and Premier Ford connect in the first? place. Gosh, I think the first time I met him, I was actually running Sun News Network, if you think back to that period of time. He was, you know, closest aid and associate of his brother, who was the mayor of Toronto at the time and cut the ribbon on our broadcast studios when we opened them up. I think that's the first time I actually met Doug in person. And did you it off right away? Yeah, I think we did. Like, he's, uh, he's a larger than life personality. You know, uh, as was Rob. And, you know, but, uh, in some ways, the more extroverted of the two,

I was found was Doug. He was more extroverted than Rob. Yeah. I, I, I, you know, in my experience, he was, you know, like, both charismatic, but, uh, um, uh, you know, but that was sort of the first time I met him and we kept in touch over the years and I hadn't participated in his campaign for mayor. I was doing other things at the time but watched it with great interest. And when he decided to throw us hat in the ring for the leadership of the party, I hopped on board. In that case, the campaign was being run by my good friend Michael Diamond. and I joined to, you know, principally help on communications with the campaign. And that ended up going well.

And we won, not by a lot, but we did win. And then just a few weeks later, we're thrown into a provincial election campaign. And Doug tapped me to be the campaign manager in that larger election campaign and went on from there. His story has always fascinated me because, of course, if we do the Kronnelli, from 2018, you know, he was about to become a defeated candidate for mayor of Toronto for the second time. But then Patrick Brown stepped down as the leader of the Ontario PC party. So in January, Doug Ford throws his hat into the ring. In March, he wins the convention. In June, he's the premier. I mean, I don't think anybody did that quickly ever before. But his first year was really

terrible. I mean, he was really flailing. What do you think he wasn't getting right in that first year? Well, I think you got to look beyond just the premier in that circumstance. The party had been out of power for 15 years. And there were precious few people left in at any level of the organization that had experience in government. And so, you know, that was a challenge. The staff contingent when you're in the opposition and provincial politics is pretty tiny. So you need to bring in a huge number of staff. We brought in some from the former Harper government and other places. But you end up with a very green staff.

You've got a lot of your caucus is new. Of the caucus that you do have, almost none of them have any cabinet level experience. And then the Premier hadn't served in cabinet or as a minister or as a leader of a party before. And so I would describe it as, you know, we were a lot of rookies. And, you know, rookies, you know, have a little, takes a little bit of time to, you know, pull the team together and to get the organization, you know, functioning as a group,

as a unit. And so it's not surprising to me that there were challenges. One of the things I heard a lot at the time, and again, we're going back. you know, this is seven and a half, eight years ago now, but one of the things I heard at the time was that his first chief of staff, a guy by the name of Dean French, tended to, well, let's put it this way. They brought out the worst instincts in each other, and the result of which was not good government.

Would you sign on to that at all? Well, I would sign on that it's part of the same problem I was talking about before, like where you've got a bunch of people who haven't served in those kinds of roles. I would say it would have been really difficult for us to have won the leadership without Dean's role. Like he played an incredibly central role in that. He had a very close relationship with the Premier. And that was essential for us to getting where we got.

But, you know, Dean had worked for a brief period of time as a junior legislative staffer. But he'd spent his time as an executive in the insurance industry, which is, you know, useful in some elements of administration, but politics is a different thing. And running a government is a different thing than just politics. And so I think there were some challenges just on the experience level around that. And so like I think you saw over time the experience level of the team, you know, increase. Maybe the other thing I'd point out, Steve, in all of that period, you know, if you'd been if you'd been the opposition leader for a couple of years leading into an election campaign, you have a period of time to sort of develop your own organization

in a way and to spend time thinking about what a transition would look like if you were to come into office and you've got a sense of how you're going to approach those opening months. Really, I would describe that process as changing the tires on the car while it's driving. Like it was a very challenging period for that reason. And so, you know, I've heard that narrative. of many times, I think it's a little bit unfair to Neen, and I think it's a little unfair to the, you know, position that the government found itself in then. But, you know, it is what it is. Let me jump in with this quote then, because I remember Melissa Lansman, who's now a member of parliament,

of course, from Thornton Hill, saying at the time, Doug is a bull who brings his own China shop with him wherever he goes, which is a great line. And it, and it did, it did sort of capture the kind of populism on steroids, broculture, frat house approach, which I think a lot of people believe the Ford government represented in that first year. Again, in your view, is that a fair recitation of the facts? Maybe some of the culture of the office or, you know, what was going on at the time would fit that. But I think one of the secrets to Ford, and I'm sure we'll get into this a little bit more, is it's not bro culture with him. Like, he is a guy who knows how to, communicate with women very effectively. And I would point out that throughout his election campaigns,

and increasingly so as, you know, if you look at 2022 and the most recent election, has had support of female voters increase. It's very, very unusual for conservative. At times, he's been winning all female demographics, but I think, you know, most of the time, including now, he's winning all except the, you know, the youngest female demographic. That's unusual. And I think that speaks to the fact that he's actually, you know, for a conservative male of his generation, incredibly successful at communicating with women in a way that they don't find threatening or condescending or unappealing in the ways that you often find with other conservative leaders.

He's got a wife and four daughters. How influential do you think they've been for that? I think that's huge. And I think, you know, the role of this in relationship that he, the role as mother played in his family and relationship that he had with her, I'm sure, you know, informs that to some level too, you know, not to cycle analyze the guy. But, you know, he's very comfortable around strong women and, you know, can talk to women without coming across as awkward or a dick. I'm going to come back to that word in the future because your friend David will use that once a time as well. So we'll come back to that. Corey, give it to me straight here.

In that first year, when things looked really quite desperate for the government, could you have imagined at that moment that this guy would actually be the first guy since Leslie Frost to win back to back to back majority governments? Well, I don't think anyone's powers of prediction are that great. you know, politics can change very rapidly. And although, you know, history, you know, when read back, you know, seems like everything is certain and preordained and destined to occur, but in the moment it never feels like that. You know, I think we've had, you know, success as a government and as a party and all of that. But it's been trying to meet the challenges in front of you as best you can. And, you know, I don't think you're, if you're thinking two elections,

ahead of where you are today, you're probably not focused enough on the problems of the moment. But I do think you have to keep in mind where you want to go and articulate some forward-looking vision and, you know, as opposed to just, you know, speaking about your record or focusing backwards, I don't think that works very well. One of the things that also intrigues me about this Premier is that he seems to have an ability to really cock things up. Like he can make some big time 180s, which he did during COVID, which he did on the Greenbelt, which he did, frankly, on his views about Donald Trump.

He was a big Trump fan at first. And now, of course, he's a real burr under Trump's saddle. And yet there's a big chunk of the electorate that seems to forgive him these enormous 180s. Why do you think? I think it's authenticity. Like, I don't think that the electorate expects perfection. but I do think they desire honesty. I think they desire self-reflection.

I think they desire you to admit mistakes when you've made them. And he doesn't stand alone as a politician who's being able to do that successfully. I often liken his ability to do that to Ralph Klein for those out there who can think back to his time as Premier of Alberta. But in a very similar way, you know, Klein, had the ability to say, hey, I got that one wrong. And do it in a genuine way where people are like, okay, you know, I accept that. You know, he understands, you know, understands where I'm coming from. And people like that kind of self-correction. Not everyone wants to wait till the next election to have the government, you know, change direction on something. You know, a lot of the electorate

is very happy if their elected leaders are willing to make course, corrections without having to defeat the government, you know, a year or two or three in the future. Now, most interestingly, he has chosen not to take that approach with the current skills development front crisis. And I will just take 20 seconds here to explain what that is for people outside Ontario who may be watching this. The province of Ontario has wanted to fund various organizations in order to help promote skills development programs with various institutions around the province. and the allegation against the government is that the labor minister has essentially put his thumb on the scale for some companies that are friends of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario that otherwise would not have been eligible for this funding. How much do you think that controversy has chipped away at Ford's popularity?

Well, I guess time will tell on that, Steve. I think the motives of the program and I think why the government wants to continue, with it are, you know, pretty sensible. And to say that it's about companies, I think, is a misrepresentation of where a lot of that is going. It's, you know, a lot of those going to private sector unions and other unions. But we have a huge skills shortage within our labor force. You know, we've, you know, I think when we came in in 2018, there was something like 350,000 chronically vacant jobs, two-thirds of them in the skilled trades. And about a third of them, and health, human resources,

so things like personal support workers, things like that. And the approach of the government had taken in the past to dealing with that is to funnel money into the colleges system. And you go to a college and say you're wanting to train electricians, you would have college system that would graduate one and four of people who are in those programs. Whereas the union training programs would graduate 98% of them. And I think some of that speaks to the incentives within that system where, you know, if colleges get paid on bums and seats and programs, unions get paid on the backside by having people achieve their accreditation and do their, all of the, sorry, it's not internship, it's looking for the word here, correct word. Apprenticeship, that's the word I'm looking for.

and actually end up designated within that trade. And they get paid on the back end by having people actually achieve that. So, you know, and one costs a lot less to do than the other. You know, so I think as programs go, it's very high impact and it's very high efficacy. There are also private sector employers who want to do that kind of training work themselves, as opposed through the college system. And for similar reasons, I think it works better. And, you know, so there's a difference in philosophy.

but, you know, various people are going to look at that. You know, the auditor general has looked at it. Others will look at it and voters will make their own decisions as to whether that's appropriate or not over time. But I think the intent of the program and what it's trying to achieve is very worthy. And I think that's why the government sticks with it. I guess we should say here, I mean, you know a lot about this because your business has helped. Some of the institutions that you've just referred to get its share of the. the skills development money. And, you know, some have made the observation that you've come under

a lot of criticism for, you know, inappropriately influencing the process is, I guess, the way they would put it. You want to speak to that? Well, I'm not sure it's a very fair accusation. I haven't actually worked on any of those files. I do, you know, own part of a lobbying company, along with a number of other people, including liberals, who work in that advocacy sector. But I think it's like it's about 10% of the companies and unions that receive money, you know, had a lobbyist of any variety. So to, you know, and as, you know, the largest lobbying company in the province of Ontario, you know, our share of that 10% would have been, you know, higher than others.

But to say that there's some one-to-one, like that, you know, you need to have a lobbyist in order to get money out of that program flies in the face of the evidence of, you know, who actually received funds. Okay, let me go back up to 30,000 feet here and come back to the comment about Dick. It is, I think it's particularly galling for some people, and I would put your friend David Hurley, I suppose, in this category, because Doug Ford's critics, it's maddening to them that he does so well at the ballot box because they like their premiers to be, if I can put it this way, a little more refined and maybe a little more intellectual and maybe a little more on top of policy details and maybe, you know, a little smoother with the

teleprompter, which eight years later, Premier Ford really still is not that great at. And yet he has managed to succeed in spite of all of those shortcomings. Why do you think? I think it's authenticity, Steve, like, you know, reading a teleprompter as well as, you know, a professional broadcaster and journalists like yourself can, you know, that's a skill. But I think, you know, for people in positions of political leadership, I think it's overvalued. I think maybe saying something a little bit rougher, maybe a little more colloquially, but looking straight at the camera and with your heart in it comes across better than like a smooth delivery with a bunch of $5 words. So she's falling off the cracker really works.

Well, I think it does. The fact that you can, you know, repeat that back to me is a sign that it lands and is memorable, right? You know, so much of how people communicate in politics as leaders, it seems so overpolished, seems over-focused, it seems over-focused. it seems over massaged. And through that process of trying not to offend anyone or to say something in the exactly perfect way according to a focus group, you know, in that process,

the authenticity gets stripped away from it. And the, you know, sometimes it's the little burrs and edges of things that makes something memorable and allow it to truly communicate meaning and intent to the audience that's receiving it. And I don't think Doug Ford has to take any lessons from anyone around political communications. There are a lot of people who've given them a lot of advice on that over the years and a lot of opponents who, you know, look down their nose at him. And their political careers are over.

And he's doing just fine. Thank you very much. Well, yeah, let's go back to 2018 when your pal David Hurley in a live television interview referred to Doug Ford as a dick. And, you know, now I understand that he was trying to defend his candidate. clean win, but do you and David still argue about whether the Premier's a dick? Well, David and I argue about all kinds of things, but, you know, we're great friends and we're business partners. And, you know, I've got enormous respect for David as a campaign manager and as a communicator. Like, I look at the 2014 campaign as one of the most masterful

campaigns in the history of Ontario politics, frankly. That's the one where win won a majority the first time out. Yeah. And, you know, and by all, you know, like, coming from like a 15 point deficit, I believe, at the beginning of that campaign, something in that range. So look, I like to say in this business, you lose more than you win. Everyone loses more than they win, but some people never win. And David has won a lot of things over the years. And I think he's one of the most astute political communicators and pollsters and campaign managers, frankly, that I've ever seen. and I don't like it when I have to fight him in campaigns because he's very good.

I prefer him as a business partner than it as an adversary. I guess you. But have you yet been able to convince David that Doug Ford is not a dick? Well, I think David has an appreciation of how well the Premier's done on politics. But I don't think I'll ever get to the point where I've convinced him to become a conservative and to vote for the Premier. I don't think my powers of political persuasion are that good. I agree on that one.

Let's look at the opposition that Doug Ford has had to deal with over the eight years he's been Premier. He's run against two NDP leaders, three liberal leaders. From your standpoint, what have they not been able to do, which has allowed Premier Ford to be as successful as he has been at the ballot box? Well, I think to unite the progressive vote behind a common vision would be one of the things that I would say. When you look at the vote splits, it's part of the secret of the success of our last three election campaigns. I think it's a very divided opposition. And I think the quality of some of the opposition candidates is, you know, his not being great.

Like, they're all smart people. They're all good people and in their own ways. But, you know, I would say in some cases, not the name recognition probably required in the modern era to prosecute an effective election campaign. And underfunded in cases. But, you know, the inability to kind of win a progressive primary before the election campaign. conclusively in a way that allows to be more of a two-party race, which is what I think they need if they want to be successful. You and I both know, I think, that under different circumstances, Doug Ford and Donald Trump

would actually be political allies on many things. And I wonder how difficult it was for this Premier to do, again, a big 180 on Donald Trump and take them on as hard as he has. Well, there are some perhaps stylistic similarities in certain areas. but I don't think there's ever been an equivalency between Trump and Ford. Like if you look at the support base for Rob Ford as mayor or for Doug Ford in any of his election campaigns, the amount of support that he has gotten from, you know, new Canadians or visible minorities within the province of Ontario, you know,

is very different than the sort of nativist, you know, ice agents kicking down doors. you know, build a wall on the border sort of stuff that I think was a primary driver in Trump's political appeal south of the border. Like that has never, ever being a part of Doug Ford's lexicon or his political coalition. It's been quite the opposite. So, you know, I always bristle a bit of comparisons between the two because, you know, I just, you know, at a fundamental policy level, I just don't see it. Well, I do remember, you know, early in his premiership, obviously, before all the tariff business and everything. I do remember Doug Ford saying, you know, if he were in the States, he'd be voting a Republican

and he liked Donald Trump. So that's why it comes up. Well, I'll let him speak to why he said that at the time. But like, I think where we are now is, you know, the opposite pole of the earth, you know. But I think there's some commonality in terms of a tell it like it is and a bit of an outsider mentality. But I wouldn't take it a lot beyond that. Okay.

Corey, let me try to get a better understanding of the nature of the relationship that you have with the Premier. What do you call him, for example, when you're dealing with him? Boss. You call him boss? I call him boss. You ever call him Doug? Rarely. You know, I guess it would depend on the circumstance.

But, you know, maybe if we're having a bite to eat or something, it's a more personal conversation. I would. But look, there's a professional relationship. My relationship with the Premier is largely around campaign. and politics and campaign management and, you know, candidate selection and polling data and things like that. You know, and he's the leader of the party. He's the guy who ultimately is his name on the ballot and he's the captain of the team of our

candidates. And he is my boss when it comes to, you know, to that role as campaign manager. Is he the kind of guy who will call you at 2 o'clock in the morning and say, Corey, I got a great idea. I can't wait to tell you all about it. No, not really. Yeah, he's, but, you know, he works incredibly long hours. Like, you know, I don't think I've ever gotten a call to in the morning or anything close to that. But, you know, 10 at night at times, sure.

And, you know, during campaigns, obviously a lot more contact than when we're times like this when we're not in a campaign. Can you give me an example of a policy idea that he was very very, very keen on pursuing. And after talking about it with you, you tried to talk them out of it because you didn't think it was such a great idea after all. Oh, well, that's the kind of stuff that, you know, you're writing a book that you never published, Steve. You know, that's, uh, you can't give me one instance of that. Yeah, you know, uh, yeah, I just don't like, uh, I don't like doing that, but like, look, I, you know, I would never view my job as talking anyone, uh, into or out of doing something in that way.

Like, I'm very much of the view that advisors advise and leaders decide. And the best way for leaders to get advice is actually a, you know, a fairly broad spectrum. Like the idea that there's, you know, a person or a couple of people that are the only, you know, people that are leaders getting advice from and that they're, you know, really, you know, calling the shots behind the scene, you know, I can say that's not how Doug, you know, Ford works. If you look at, you know, how he takes advice and consultation, and he gives out his phone number to literally everyone he meets and, you know,

and at political rallies and everything else. And actually picks up those phone calls and responds to those text messages. So I think you'd be hard pressed to find a political leader who takes such a broad spectrum of advice. You know, I'll certainly chair, you know, my opinion on things when it's, you know, within the lane that I'm supposed to advise on. But at the end of the day, it's the leader who calls the shots. And it's seldom, in my experience, on the basis of one or two people's advice.

It's a much broader group. No, I get you. But let's do it, for instance, here. You know, it was very unusual and potentially risky two and a half years into a four-year term to call an early election, as your party did in 2025. would the notion of doing that have come from him seeking your advice or from you looking at numbers and saying, boss, you ought to think about this? Well, it's the job of the campaign manager to be ready for a campaign at any time and to have the organization ready and to provide advice around, you know, the political environment that you're in. But there's only one person who makes that call.

No, he makes the call, but where did the idea originate? or you? Yeah, look, I don't want to get into that. Like, because I think it's sort of a false construct, Steve. Like, you know, that is a conversation that is always ongoing with every leader or candidate that I've worked with, you know, where they're in the ability to make that decision. You know, what's going on and when's the right time to have an election? That is a ongoing conversation, always. Okay. When he came to you and he said, Corey, I want to build a tunnel under the 401. you're just going to keep you're just going to keep trying on things here and see if i'll bite uh you know i look you know uh i have thoughts around things that should be in platforms and you know

in terms of what you put in the window but in terms of what the government decides to do or not do uh that's a different team of folks and uh you know it's a different decision making process and you know uh i try to i try to i try to state in my lane steve because i think that's the only way this thing works. I get you, but I assume at some point along the way he asked you to poll on that, and you probably did, and you gave him the numbers, and it's still official government policy. Well, maybe something that you should take from that is that it actually pulls quite well. Except it doesn't, doesn't? Well, depends where you're talking about, right? Okay. Well, I'll give you one of an example of things, because like what you're really talking about

when you're talking about that issue is commuting. And, you know, as somebody who lives in the city, Steve, you probably spend as much time as I do sitting in traffic. And the unlivability of the GTA at times because of traffic congestion is a really big problem. But it's not a problem that's equally shared with everyone. Like if you're living on a subway line, that's a different experience than if you're in Vaughn, for instance. Yeah, that's me. I'm a subway guy. Yeah, well, and so am I.

Like, I live, you know, right downtown on the subway line and all the rest. And that works very well for me getting around a lot of the time. However, you know, there are parts of the city where there's, you know, extraordinary amounts of growth. Like if you're looking to the north of the city, the 413, very, very consequential policy that we ran on. And, you know, how people in downtown Toronto feel about that is more lukewarm, kind of a 50-50 proposition there. But a 50-50 proposition divided between two opposition parties, actually kind of three if you include the Greens.

But if you go to Vaughn and Brampton and places like that, it's a 75-25% issue. And you've got the same three parties dividing up, in that case, 25%. So if you're wondering why Stephen Del Dukkah not only didn't win the election, but didn't win his own seat, I would look to the 413. And, you know, what you do with a 401 and congestion on that, you know, whether it's a tunnel or whether it's, you know, an elevated portion or things like that, you know, at the end of

the day, you look at the traffic projections for that highway and they are astoundingly bad. And it's not just people sitting in traffic. Like that is a major artery for all trade and commerce in the province of Ontario going east-west. and there is a huge economic cost associated with that congestion. And so you can't just think about, you know, what you're going to do right now. So right now the government's building the 413 and the Bradford bypass. You've got to be thinking about, okay, what plans are we going to be making for, you know, 15, 20 years from now? And you've got to start the work on planning what those options are.

And that won't be for Doug Ford government to decide at the end of the day in many respects. of the big costs and decisions around something like that will be happening at some point much further in the future. But I don't think there's anything wrong with planning on that. The original plans for the 413 come from the McGinty government, and they're being executed now. Okay, one more question on the nature of your relationship. I mean, I know from listening to the curse of politics that you are capable of cussing with the best of them. Do you and the Premier swear at each other?

At each other, no, in front of each other sometimes. But the Premier is a big swear. I've got a filthier mouth, I think, as those are listed, the podcast can probably attest. Okay. I want to ask this next question rather sensitively, so bear with me on this. And that is, I talk to a decent number of conservatives who worry about the Premier because as energetic as he is, he does not appear to be in the best of health. Let me just put it that way. And they are concerned that now that he's in his 60s, that could become an issue going forward.

His dad died at 73. His brother got admittedly a rare form of cancer and died at 46. Do you ever offer advice about his health? No. No, I don't. Does anybody? Well, I'm not the right person to ask. In my experience, those are things that you know, people in much more intimate relationships with you offer to you, but I would view that as like pretty inappropriate for me to do. Okay. I do remember one time, and this is several years ago, the Premier and I coincidentally ended up on the same flight to Florida. And as the flight was about to land, I think in Fort Lauderdale, at literally the last second, it suddenly did kind of a,

I mean, it wasn't 90 degrees shooting up, but it was pretty steep and pretty sudden. And we had a kind of good laugh about it afterwards. And I guess the joke was something about how upset I was because if the plane ended up crashing, I certainly wasn't going to be in the lead. He was certainly going to be in the lead of, you know, killed on the flight was the Premier of Ontario. Also killed was this guy who worked in TBO. And where were you going together anyway?

My goodness. Stadeless. You know, who doesn't want to go to Florida? when Donald Trump's not in power. Right. Be that as it may. Yeah. I mean, it was a bit of a white knuckle experience.

And I think the premier is kind of afraid to fly anyway. Is that true? Well, I know he's flown a lot in all the campaigns I've run with him. So, you know, it's, you can't be a debilitating fear if there's any fear there. I would say, you know, my observation is a premier, you know, likes being home at night in the sense that, you know, I can't think of somebody who's more, more embodies the Atobico and, you know, what's a perfect day for him? It's, you know, probably, probably spending all day in Atobico. Like, so, you know, I don't think he's, you know,

somebody who, you know, leaps out of bed and says, you know, let's go on the road for another tour. But certainly in campaigns and is a part of government, like he's out doing that, you know, probably more than he likes, but I don't know. You'd have to ask him that. I can only observe that he's done lots of flying. Okay. All right. Let me raise your favorite subject here, which everybody wants to get your expertise on and which everybody seems determined to find a primaficia case that he's interested. But anyway, I haven't seen the evidence, but I want to ask you. There are lots of people who are convinced that Doug Ford has designs on federal politics and at some point running for the leadership of the federal conservative party. What say you? Well, as a keen observer

of political history, Steve, I'm sure you can verify this. You'd be hard pressed to find an example of a premier of any province, but certainly of Ontario, who leaves being in government to go run to be the leader of the opposition in Ottawa. I think that is an inherently irrational act. And certainly an inherently irrational act, you know, after having just received a, you know, a brand new mandate from the public. So I, you know, as to what happens in the future, I'll leave that for the premier to answer for himself.

But I can tell you, I haven't been spending any time working on it. and he's certainly never asked me to work on it. So take that for what that is. Well, I do remember, well, I shouldn't say I remember because it wasn't alive at the time, but George Drew was the Premier of Ontario from 43 to 48. He quit to become federal opposition leader, and his career promptly ended, and he was dead very shortly thereafter. So, yeah, that's not a great.

So, yeah, not a long, long time. But it didn't end up well for him anyway. So true or false, the premier is or is not taking French lessons? As far as I know, that's false. Are there any circumstances you can imagine, for example, if Pierre Polyev does not succeed in the review that's happening later this month in Calgary, where Doug Ford would have any interest in running for that job? I don't see it, to be honest. Like, it's just, I think it's so far from what the priorities are, what the government's working on and, you know, what has. what his focus is that I just have trouble seeing that.

But as you know, never supposed to answer hypothetical questions. It's not really my question to answer, but if you're asking me to say what I think, I don't think that's in the cards. I mean, my two cents on it is I've never believed that he was interested in running federally. I very much think he's interested in seeking a fourth consecutive majority government,

which no one in this province of Ontario has done in 112 years. So why don't we go there. I have had conversations with him about that. Well, that's what I want to know. Can you confirm that he's going to run for a fourth consecutive mandate? Well, I think that's a question for him to answer. But I can, I'll answer it this way. I'll certainly do everything I can to make sure that that opportunity is there for him.

And that he has a organization and team and a campaign ready to do that if he so chooses. Does he worry that if he hangs around for another, you know, six or seven years, which is what would be required to fill out this term and then run for another term, that some of his, let's say, more ambitious younger backbenchers or cabinet ministers might decide to leave? I don't know. Like people come and go from politics. And, you know, we've had some, you know, really talented team members who've gone on to do other things. And I think that's good, you know, whether it's running at a different level or whether it's going into private industry or going back to careers they had before, you know, whatever the case may be or retiring. Like, you know, that happens. You know, like look at Christine Elliott, you know, a really central person to the government for a long time, deputy, premier, minister of health, you know, very central person. who, you know, who, you know, went on to retire and all of that. Real loss to the team to have or not there.

But the team is, is bigger than any one person. Even people such as her, you know, play really central roles. So people will come and people will go. And, you know, that's just life in politics. Does he think about succession planning at all? Well, it's not for the leader to choose their successor, you know. No, but to think about leaders, leaders like to set things up in such a way. as I'm telling you.

I mean, you know this to make sure there's a healthy contest of potential options after they leave. I think there are healthy potential options, but don't ask me which ones. I was just going to say name names, please, name names. Yeah, that sounds like a really bad idea for me to do, Steve. So I'm going to take a pass on that. But I'll let other keen observers, as to yourself point out, that there are, you know, which people they think are, you know, best suited to do that. But I would observe there are a lot of really talented people in that.

cabinet. You know, we started the conversation talking about how green, uh, the team was, you know, both on the caucus and cabinet side back in 2018. That is absolutely not the case now. There are a lot of really talented people who've done extraordinarily well. And, uh, you know, who would bring a lot to that job if they chose to, to, to take it on. But, you know, one of the other things I've observed about the premier is, uh, he's tended to stay out of other races at other levels of government, you know, whether it's the federal conservative level or, you know, or who's going to be prime minister or Canada or who's going to be premier in different provinces or who's going to be a mayor in this community or that community. Maybe not perfectly

all the time, but, you know, overwhelmingly his- He weighed into the Toronto mayoralty pretty significantly. That's the one exception to that, I would say, but, you know, but for the most part, he's really, I think more than most leaders in my experience has stayed out of that stuff. But even in cases, you know, if you want to use that as an example where he did weigh in a bit more, he's being noted by for his ability to work with people who, you know, he may not be personally aligned with. You know, I look at, you know, for instance, Stephen Del Duca, who, you know, ran his liberal leader against him. I think if, you know, if you were to ask him, he'd say, you know, you'll list your favorite mayors in Ontario that, you know, you have really healthy working relationships with. Stephen Del Ducca would be, you know, on that list. So would Andrea Horvath, you know, and, you know, if you go back further, you know, back when he was running for leader in 2018,

probably one of the least charitable commentators out there in the media world was John Torrey. And he and John Tori became, you know, I think very close personal friends and, and worked extremely well together. Same with Olivia Chow. You know, it's, you know, he's delivering her birthday cakes and things like that. So, you know, I think he's demonstrated an ability to work with people. And I think that same sensibility comes to, you know, to how you treat succession planning. You want to have a strong team. You want to highlight that team as much as he can. And you want to leave respect for the voters around who they want to pick in these things.

Let me follow up on something you said a moment ago, which is to say, if the Premier wanted to seek a fourth term, you see your job as sort of ensuring that he remains in a position to be able to do that successfully. So as a strategist, as somebody whose job it is to sort of look around corners and see potential issues that could derail an attempt for a fourth term, what do you see out there that concerns you? Well, the biggest challenges are, you know, they're not secrets. You don't have to, you know, be incredibly clairvoyant to point them out. The biggest challenges facing us right now, Steve, relate to the challenges we're having with the United States.

Like our economy and the world order and international law and all these things are being really upended in ways that no one would have predicted a few years ago. And the challenges that that presents to our economy, to the unity of the country, to the complexion of our trading relationships, those things are really big. And the real world impacts on, you know, different communities in, in our province are huge. You know, the attack that the steel industry is under, that's really meaningful to Hamilton and to Sue St. Marie. And what's going on with the auto sector and tariffs around that in southwestern Ontario couldn't be more important. So those are the big things. But I think we're, you know, if you want to go past, you know, the issues, I think the other. part of this is that you've got to keep looking out the windshield, right? Where governments that get

longer and the truth get into trouble is they start looking for thank yous instead of, you know, presenting plans. And if you want like maybe one of the best historical examples of that, you know, you can be Churchill and win the Second World War. But, you know, if you're looking for a thank you for that, get ready to be defeated. And you've got to keep the focus on what's coming next. What's your plan for the province going forward? And as long as you can articulate a compelling and credible plan around that, I think you're going to be in much better shape.

If you start resting on your laurels and pointing to your, quote, record, as opposed to your vision for the future, that's when you get in trouble. Let me ask you to help us understand why the leader of the Fed, Federal Conservatives and the leader of the Ontario Conservatives have such a bad relationship. What is the source of the antipathy between Pierre Pollyev and Doug Ford? I think some of that is just, you know, baked into the dynamics of relationships between federal party leaders and provincial leaders. And I don't think it's just this relationship or these two parties. You know, I'm always.

happy to give Saskatchewan examples, you know, is where I grew up. But if you look at, you know, Carlo Beck, very talented person, he was the leader of the NDP out there, you know, how thankful do you think she was, you know, having Jigmeet Singh roll through town talking about how he supports a carbon tax when she does not. Like that was, I think, a real problem for them. And, and it's not that, you know, they don't, you know, they're not both NDP. It's that, you know, provincial politics and federal politics are different. It's different drivers. It's, you know, what constitutes a good policy or good plan or whatever for a federal party leader is often not, you know, if you're looking at the Venn diagram, a complete overlap with, with any provincial leader. So, you know, there's,

there's always attention there. And that's not new. Like I, you know, look at the relationship. relationship that Mike Harris had with Jean Choray when he was the leader of the federal party wasn't perfect. You know, it's Stephen Harper and Tim Hudak, not best friends. Like, you know, these, these are not uncommon. And even when they are of the same party, you know, go back to Saskatchewal and Bradwell and Stephen Harper, you know, fought like cats and dogs behind the scenes. So like it's, you know, it's not uncommon to have that dynamic. And I, and I don't think it's a huge reflection on either of them as individuals. I think it's just kind of the way the world turns. Do you actually kind of as a guy who's responsible for strategy in Ontario prefer it that way?

I try to, you know, ignore it as much as possible from, you know, a decision-making perspective in terms of what you're supposed to do. Look, people are not electing the premier of Ontario to be, you know, the Prime Minister of Canada and vice versa. Like, you've got to stick stay focused on what your mandate is and who your electorate is and your electoral coalition is going to look different federally, you know, even in the same province. Like, you know, the conservative electoral coalition in Ontario does not look the same as it does for the provincial conservative party. And that's not new.

That's been true for many parties and many leaders over a long period of time. You've got to stay focused on your electorate and your election. It is not frequent. In fact, I would say it's pretty rare that the most memorable thing said during a federal election campaign is said not by any of the leaders seeking a vote, but rather by a provincial political strategist who accuses the federal party of quote-unquote campaign malpractice, as you did of the federal conservatives quite famously during the federal election campaign last spring. any regrets about so publicly calling them out? Well, you know, maybe a little naivety on my part, Steve. Like, look, I, you know, as pointed out earlier, I ran a news network for a while.

I've done a lot of political commentary over the years. And when I was into picking people to go on TV and do these things, there's nothing I hated more than people who are coming on to give commentary where it was bullshit theater, where they're not saying the obvious things. So look, it's maybe a bit indelicate to point out that the federal party blew a 25-point lead. But me pointing that out isn't the same as that happening. There isn't a causation there. It's like an observation after the fact.

And that might not be welcomed by everyone who's part of a partisan audience around that. But if you're going to give commentary on the campaign, you know, you've got to point out obvious things sometimes. And I kind of feel like that was a fairly obvious observation, to be honest. Let the record show we're about 45 minutes into our conversation here. And that's the first cuss word you've dropped since we started. I'm trying to be polite for your audience. I kind of feel like, you know, still has, you know, a bit of a broadcast, traditional broadcast sort of vibe. I take your point.

I'm trying to have my I'm on TV rules as opposed to. I'm cussing on the internet rules. I gotcha. One thing I often hear about this progressive conservative premier of Ontario is that he's too progressive and not conservative enough for some conservatives. How seriously do you and he take those criticisms? Well, I don't take them seriously to be honest. Like, you know, my view, if we want to talk about federal politics, is that there are like, five conservative parties, you know, within Canada. In British Columbia, if you look at what

constitutes a winning, you know, right of center, or center-right coalition, you know, it's a lot of David Emerson, John Turner type liberals and conservatives in a coalition, you know, where the primary opponent is the NDP typically. That's what a conservative winning coalition looks like in BC. It's a different complexion of a conservative party there. If you're go to the prairies where I grew up, you know, if you're looking at Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, you know, it's a little bit more like the Reform Party. It's a, there's a more populist element to it. It's maybe, you know, a little more libertarian in its ideology in, in some ways. I'll also point out Alberta is the highest per capita government in the country, the largest per capita

government in the country, so maybe not so conservative in some ways, but has a self-image of being, you know, very conservative. If you go to Ontario, I think there's a little bit more of a Bill Davis vibe in terms of what that traditionally has looked like in the province. There's a little bit more of establishment flavor. It's maybe a little softer on some of the social issues. Quebec, you know, there's a nationalist, you know, vein through that. You've got, you know, Lucian Bouchard type figures. And when you go to Atlantic Canada, in the Maritimes, it's different still.

You know, some elements are similar to Ontario, but I think economically a little bit more status. So, you know, when you're a federal leader, you're trying to find a through line with these, you know, five different audiences. Difficult. Difficult to do. But, you know, look, I spent about 20 years of my political career. the federal level as a prairie conservative wagging my finger and hectoring conservatives in Atlanta Canada and Quebec and in Ontario about how they should just be real conservatives and support Preston Manning and a lot of good that did you know I think zero minds changed

you you have to acknowledge the reality that different regions of this country are different and you know what you constitutes a conservative winning coalition in those different parts of the country and the things that you talk about if you want to be successful are different. But, you know, look at, you know, Stephen Harper was, you know, very, you know, successful in some respects as, you know, being a conservative leader that actually became prime minister at federal level, not an easy thing to do, you know, by the end, had zero seats in Atlanta, Canada, you know, and it's by going out and, you know, talking about, you know, culture of, of dependency and defeat, right? Like, people don't like hearing

that kind of shit. So, you know, you've got to be cognizant that you have to speak respectfully to different parts of the country and you have to acknowledge that the things they're looking for from the government might not be exactly identical to a neighboring region. And that's what makes being a successful conservative leader, you know, nationally so difficult. That's why I it happened so rarely. And, you know, I didn't, you know, decide how this stuff works, but I will observe that in my experience, that is how it does work. In your heart, Corey, which kind of conservative are you? Look, you know, I don't know how to answer that question. Like, you know, yeah. Well, I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't view my job as Cambertoe, I don't, I don't view my job as Camber.

campaign manager to advocate for my own personal positions. That's not what that job is. You know, if you're a professional and you're in campaign management, your job is to give advice on how to win elections. And what a, you know, winning conservative coalition if you're a conservative campaign manager looks like in the market that you're running in. And that is not about, you know, an ideological crusade. I'm not some conservative Jesuit who's going out to convert a bunch of people to an ideology that I, you know, personally hold. It's to help candidates, you know, win an election campaign and figure out what a conservative winning coalition looks like in that jurisdiction. That's what my job is.

So, like, I kind of, you know, it's not about me, Steve. It's about the job. Well, I am going to ask you one last question, and this very much is about you. I've got to say I've never heard somebody as high profile and influential as you are, have their last name mispronounced in so many different ways. Why do you think people have so much trouble with your last name? You know, freaky-deke Dutch here. I don't know.

It's like not a lot of not a lot of Dutch names out there perhaps. I don't know. It's easy for me. Two syllables. Ten Ike. You know, it's like Van Dyke. I was watching CBC News. network the other day and the guy who was hosting and I won't call him out because he's a friend

and I like him but he called you to Nike and I've also heard people say to Nick and I've heard people say Teneke and what's the worst you've ever heard? Well the funniest is you know I've you know it's more the verbal you know when you're booking a well not that anyone does this by phone anymore. But when you call for a reservation and it's like, well, give the name, Corey, tonight, well, I know it's tonight, but like, what's the name? You know, that's... Very good. Very good. Well, at least I said it right off the top today, I think, anyway. You're the quintessential professional. Well, I'm trying. I'm trying. Corey, it's awfully good of you to spend so much time with us here on the Pagan podcast. I got one last little bit of business to do here, which is to say,

we're trying a new thing here on this podcast, and that is we've decided to establish a bit of a relationship with Patreon, which, you know, some folks who don't do this internet thing might not know about, but for others, we invite them to go to patreon.com. That's p-a-t-R-E-O-N dot com slash the Paken podcast, where we're trying to create a bit of a community there. We're going to do some chats. We're going to have some, you know, sort of exclusive videos, some value-added stuff. more interactive. I just invite people to go there, Patreon.com slash the Paken podcast, where they can find out more about that. And of course, all our shows are archived at stevepaken.com. So, and if you think people have trouble with your last name, boy, you should try having a last name Paken. It's P-A-I-K-I-N, people. And with that, I'm really grateful you join us. And thanks so much, Corey. Be well. My pleasure. Peace and love, everybody. Until next time.