The Paikin Podcast - Morning Brief: Carney’s Alberta Warning

Episode Date: May 26, 2026

Steve Paikin and Caryn Ceolin discuss Mark Carney’s sharp warning against Alberta separatism, comparisons to Brexit, rising tensions with Danielle Smith and, of course, late-night reactions to the Montreal Canadiens overtime loss. This is your Morning Brief for Tuesday, May 26th. Support us: patreon.com/thepaikinpodcast Follow The Paikin Podcast: YOUTUBE: http://www.youtube.com/@ThePaikinPodcastSPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/1OhwznCIUEA11lZGcNIM4h?si=b5d73bc7c3a041b7X: x.com/ThePaikinPodINSTAGRAM: instagram.com/thepaikinpodcastBLUESKY: bsky.app/profile/thepaikinpodcast.bsky.social Email us at: [e-mail] 

Good morning and happy Tuesday, Steve Paken. Karen Cieland with you for Paken on politics. I'm willing to make a prediction. Okay, do it. My prediction is that as I, well, I know for sure you did not stay up late last night to watch the Canadians lose in overtime to the hurricanes. I didn't. Okay, which was lovely, incidentally.

I'm betting nobody else here did either, but I did. And I did not get to bed until 12.30 a.m. last night because that was so much, it's, I get an unbecoming amount of joy watching the Canadians lose in overtime. I'm so sorry to say it. You watched it just so you could do that this morning. Just so I could have this 30 seconds to say. Well, enjoy now, because they're going to come back. They probably will.

They're going to come back. Just to spite me, I know. Enjoy it now. Prime Minister Mark Carney issued really his strongest and probably starkest warning yet when it comes to the issue of Alberta separation. He's dismissing it as a dangerous bluff as well as the idea that the push for separation could put Alberta in a stronger negotiating position with his government. You know, he cited Breggia.

as a cautionary tale for Albertans yesterday. He drew on his experience as the governor of the Bank of England during the Brexit crisis. I mean, did you expect him to wade so directly into the issue so soon? No. I'll give you a direct answer to a direct question. We have been hearing a lot lately from Premier Smith of Alberta saying things like, this is a question for Albertans to decide.

And she hasn't quite said the rest of Canada, NYUB, but she's been pretty close to that, right? This is an issue for Albert's to decide. Well, the Prime Minister certainly has a different view on that, and he came forward yesterday quite forcefully, saying, no, excuse me, we all have a, you know, we all have a say in this matter. And if the Premier of Alberta thinks that we're going to spend the next,

whatever it is, five, six months until referendum date, not opining on this, not weighing in on this, not trying to sell the virtues of Canada to the people of Alberta, she got another thing coming. And he was out there quite far, I thought, forcefully yesterday. They'd been getting along so well, right, up until now? But clearly, this referendum thing is a bridge too far for a prime minister who is championing cooperative federalism. And that's going to be his calling card going forward. You know what? It did actually

also strike me yesterday in his comments that his frustrations with Premier Smith were really on display. And, you know, he said, she doesn't always take my advice. And that was a nice way to put it. Yeah. And her criticism to, like, to his remarks, again, to your point where this is an issue, for Albertans to decide not Ottawa. It was something that actually opposition MPs on Parliament Hill then echoed that sentiment. I think it was MP Michelle Rembold-Gardner who said the prime minister has no right to wag his finger.

She's from Alberta. She's an Alberta MP. What do you make of the opposition's response? The opposition is opposing here, which I guess is their right to do. But it's impossible for me to imagine that if there is a serious question about separation, and let's admit, this is a question to have a question,

It's not the question yet, but it's impossible for me to imagine a scenario where the prime minister of the country, whose number one job is keeping the country together, is somehow going to stay on the sidelines and not involve himself in a question of national unity like this. It's just not going to happen. Yeah, because, again, Pierre Polyev made that exact criticism just last week that the prime minister hadn't spoken as forcefully as he believed he should have. Indeed. And, you know, full marks to Mr. Polyeff for coming forward and saying, Alberta's place is in Canada. I'm going to vote to remain in Canada. He's an Alberta MP.

He has a vote on this matter. Good for him for saying so. Premier Smith right now is sitting atop a party in Alberta that is in effect a separatist party. You've seen the polling while very, I think what is it, maybe the most is a third, a third of the people in Alberta. About a quarter. A quarter? Okay, even a quarter are talking about flirtation with separation. We've seen the latest poll in the United Conservative Party of Alberta.

It's 57% in favor of separation. That's a very big number, and it is going to cause a huge headache for the Prime Minister and for the Premier as we move closer to the October date. You know, the backdrop to all the separation talk in Alberta is the possibility of a pipeline and the climate concessions that the federal government has made to Alberta in order to make a pipeline happen.

Prime Minister Mark Carney yesterday also had to defend his environmental record. He confirmed that 14 members of his Liberal Party, 14 MPs, wrote him this letter in April, essentially raising concerns that he was backsliding on his climate commitments. I mean, you and I have spoken about the climate issue before and the political stakes for the prime minister. And as you've rightly raised, I mean, the stakes are not that high for the prime minister. He's incredibly popular. This is not going to hurt his popularity. At the moment. At the moment. And that's exactly my question for you, because how big of a chance?

does this become for the Prime Minister in the medium to long term? When you have, albeit a small group of MPs when there are 160 more, to the Prime Minister's point, who are totally fine with what he's doing, but when you have a small group of MPs who are willing to come out against their very popular leader? We should say we're not sure that they're totally fine with what he's doing, but they can read polls and they see that their leader is very popular at the moment, and they're not prepared to come out. I'm talking about the 160 now.

They're not prepared to make a stink about it. So there are, what, 14 who are prepared to make a stake? And who also haven't made their names public. That's the point, Karen. They're so courageous right now to say we oppose the environmental backsliding by the leader of our party, but they're not quite courageous enough to put their names on it. And that is the difference. We saw in the dying days of the Trudeau government, when people have really had the last straw,

they put their names to it. And, of course, Christopher Freeland then took the prime minister down. So far, we've got 14 unnamed people. I can speculate as to who a bunch of them are. I think I know who a bunch of them are, but so far, they're not going public, and that's a big deal. Are they testing the waters here, dipping a toe in before they let their constituents know how they really feel? Sure. But at the more, and look at, let's face it, they are actually, if you look at empirically provable facts, they're right. The prime minister has been backsliding on the commitments made by the previous Trudeau government.

That is a fact. But he's doing so in order to keep the family together. And as a result, I think the other 160 MPs in the Liberal Caucus are obviously giving him a wide berth here. to practice politics the way he sees fit in order to try to keep the country together. Steve, I hope you get to bed a little earlier tonight, maybe not midnight. No Canadians in hurricanes tonight, so it will be an earlier bedtime. We'll see you tomorrow. You got it. That was your morning brief for Tuesday, May 26, 2006.

Now let's see what the rest of the day has in store.