The Paikin Podcast - Morning Brief: Trump in Beijing and Iran’s Fallout

Episode Date: May 13, 2026

Steve Paikin and Caryn Ceolin discuss Donald Trump’s high-stakes trip to Beijing, the ongoing fallout from the war in Iran, China’s role in the Strait of Hormuz and what it all could mean for Taiwan. This is your Morning Brief for Wednesday, May 13th. Support us: patreon.com/thepaikinpodcast Follow The Paikin Podcast: YOUTUBE: http://www.youtube.com/@ThePaikinPodcastSPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/1OhwznCIUEA11lZGcNIM4h?si=b5d73bc7c3a041b7X: x.com/ThePaikinPodINSTAGRAM: instagram.com/thepaikinpodcastBLUESKY: bsky.app/profile/thepaikinpodcast.bsky.social Email us at: [e-mail] 

Good morning, Steve Paken, Karen Cielan with you on this Wednesday morning. It was a late one for you, Steve. You went to the Jay's game? It was a late night. And I'll tell you what, in the seventh inning, it was 5-0, Tampa. And I thought, well, I guess at least we're going to get home early tonight. Took my daughter. Well, it was a great game, right?

The Jay scored five in the bottom of the seventh, and then we had extra innings. And I'll tell you, there's moments where I'm very proud of my daughter. I said to her after nine innings and it's tied. And, you know, I get up at five for this. She gets up at 5.30 to go to her job. I said, do you want to go? We can leave early if you want. She said, absolutely not.

I'm so proud of her. Yes. We stayed till the bitter end. I don't think the game got out until about 1030, 1040. We felt great. It was so exciting. Oh, wait a second.

Maybe we staged that shot. We were alive and with it right to the end of the game. And funnily enough, you know who I bumped into at the stadium last night? Who? Mike Harris, the former Premier of Ontario on the 36th anniversary

of his winning the Ontario PC Party leadership. Oh, wow. the day, 36 years of the day, I bumped into Mike Harris. I love how you, how you remember that date. I, you have to remind him, probably. I did, actually. I did. His wife asked him, did you know it was the anniversary today? He said, I did after he told me. Yeah, it's, I run into famous mics at the, at the dome, right? Mike Eppel, Mike Eiffel, Mike Harris. Anyway, what else going on in the world? Well, you know, just the two most powerful men in the world are expected to meet this week.

President Donald Trump, he lands in Beijing today, probably not how he wanted to, because, remember this summit, he postponed six weeks ago, thinking by the time he met with Xi Jinping, the war in Iran would be in the review mirror. Of course it's not. Iran's arguably probably in a better strategic position than it was when this war started. Like it hasn't made concessions, nuclear concessions. It is instead demanding reparations. It is demanding a recognition of its sovereignty and control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Its military has not been as degraded as much as the president has been alleging. I mean, how weak is Trump's hand heading into this summit with Xi Jinping this week? It may be weak, but on the other hand, you've got to give the guy this. He knows how to put on a show, right? We saw this all the way back from the days when I remember watching him as a guest on the Oprah Winfrey show or the Phil Donahue show back in the day. And if there was one thing Trump has been consistent on over the years, it's what he wants to do on China, right? He's always said, China's been eating America's lunch, China has been putting illegal tariffs on us, China doesn't treat us properly. and therefore that's the one position he's taken consistently over 40 years. Did you see what he, I mean, how he arrived in China and the people he brought with him?

I mean, he's brought every superstar from American business whose companies, I think if you tally up the value of those companies, were into the trillions upon trillions of dollars. The convoy of planes arriving was really a sight to see. And he's got all the, oh, and Karen, did you see who's on the plane with him? Elon's on the plane with him. Apparently, they've kissed and made up. So he knows how to put on a show.

He has managed, I would say, in the short run to change the channel from all the nothing but bad news related to Iran in the short run. And, well, now we see what happens. I imagine, though, that there are people in China who are wondering how the U.S. who should have had every advantage in this war that it started is getting bogged down by a much lesser power. That is an American tradition, I hate to tell you. On the one hand, America can celebrate military victory after military victory, which they have been doing. And the Secretary of War goes to the podium and likes to have his testosterone-fueled press conferences. But go back 50 years, go back to Vietnam, where America, I think, probably won 99% of the on-the-field military battles and yet lost the war.

There's more to it than winning battle after battle after battle. Iran right now, I think you're right. Iran, I mean, you've introduced a series of facts which suggest Iran may have been to hell and back, but they are still standing, and despite all of the political and military degrading they've suffered, they're still standing. Yeah, Iran is in crisis, but it's not giving up. But we spoke very briefly yesterday about how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could loom over this summit. Of course, Xi Jinping could potentially use his influence over Iran because China is its economic lifeline. It is its biggest oil consumer. Are we seeing that yet?

We haven't. That's just it. Because China's position has been. Donald Trump started this mess. It's his to clean up. Do you see that changing at all? Well, you saw what President Trump called Xi Jinping on truth social this morning, which was a meeting with Xi Jinping, comma, a leader of extraordinary distinction.

I mean, he's already laying it on pretty thick, because I think he understands that he needs the head of China's help to get this thing toward some kind of. of progress and beyond that I mean these two men look at the body language when they're with each other they get along very well and I think that's I mean we talked about this a little bit yesterday for whatever reason the president seems to feel very comfortable in the presence of authoritarian's he does less well with democratic leaders small D democratic leaders but for whatever

reason when he's in the presence of the Chinese authoritarian leader they seem to get on famously maybe he sees some of himself in she I also can't imagine that there aren't Chinese officials right now who are doubting America's ability to defend Taiwan at this very moment, seeing it how consumed the U.S. is by the war in Iran and its fallout. How has this potentially changed China's Taiwan calculus? Do you know, I've asked that question of a number of foreign affairs observers because Donald Trump's commitment to his allies always seems so transactional and not permanent as it is, as it has been for America and Taiwan for, well, I guess,

since the 1940s. And their position is because Taiwan makes the superconductors that are so important to all of the big industries in the United States that are AI-based, that Donald Trump actually will go to bat for Taiwan. So there is that. And a lot of its weapon systems as well. True. Also should say both parties in Congress support sending more weapons to Taiwan. So they've got congressional support as well. That's a relationship that goes back 70, 75 years. So yeah. Steve, we'll be watching this later this week, how it unfolds. We'll chat again tomorrow. I'm going to go have a nap.

Enjoy. Thank you. That was your morning brief for Wednesday, May 13th, 2020. Now, let's see what the rest of the day has in store for us.