The Paikin Podcast - Morning Brief: Trump’s Iran Deal and Alberta Tensions

Starting point is 00:00:05 Well, good morning. Steve, good morning. How was the rainy weekend? Did you get indoors? Actually, you know, I was up in Sue St. Marie on Saturday, as we talked about on Friday. Beautiful weather up there. I came back to a torrential downpour in Toronto. But we had days open at TVO, or not days open.

Starting point is 00:00:20 Doors open. Doors open at TVO. I must have shaken 800 hands, and I must have said to innumerable children who wanted their pictures taken with me, you have no idea who I am, but your parents are very impressed right now. Anyway, it was a great day. Oh, that's lovely. I love doors open. I think it's such a great way to see the city. It was great fun. We probably had a kid you're not, probably had 8, 900 people in a TVO, and I met every single one of them. And it was delightful.

Starting point is 00:00:45 Amazing. Yeah, cool. Well, President Donald Trump says the U.S. and Iran have agreed in principle to a deal that could extend their ceasefire, possibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. You are already showing skepticism on your face. Call me skeptical. Yeah. I mean, he's already come out and said, We're not going to rush into a deal downplaying, you know, any signs of a breakthrough. But essentially, I think what's important to note about this deal they've supposedly agreed to in principle is that those important issues, the nuclear issues, the missiles, that's all been pushed down the line. And even some of his strongest supporters in his own party came out this weekend and slammed the emerging details around this plan for not taking a harder line against the Iranian government.

Starting point is 00:01:29 I mean, for a president, too, who just weeks ago said there would be. be no deal with Iran unless it was unconditional surrender. I mean, this obviously appears to be very far off from that. I'm trying to figure out here, Karen, what exactly has been achieved. I mean, the president said he wanted to categorically deny Iran the possibility of making nuclear weapons. That does not appear to have taken place. He has said he wants to categorically deny the possibility of Iran continuing to be a source of terrorism in the region and wider around the world. That certainly does not appear to be the case. Iran might be left in control of the Strait of Hormuz? Is that possible? And actually charging vessels to go through there

Starting point is 00:02:07 and realizing the revenue from that? Is that possible? I mean, if this is the case, I'm not sure what exactly this war was all about. Because it sounds like, at the moment anyway, that Donald Trump will have gone 0 for three. I know the president on truth social said this past weekend that I don't make bad deals. And therefore, we should all be thrilled at the way things are going. But at the moment, it's really passing strange to see what's been achieved here. I think any deal that could potentially reopen the straight of poor moves might be welcome news to some Republicans who feared entering the midterm election season with rising gas prices looming in the shadow of a war that has already cost the American public $29 billion so far. But, I mean, is it worth striking any deal that will undermine the president's own war goals? Because it's hard to imagine the administration now coming to...

Starting point is 00:02:58 a deal that would essentially bring the world back to the pre-war status quo. You know, clearly the president has been hearing from his base that this thing is just a turkey. And people are disgusted with the gas prices going too high. His own vice president, J.D. Vance, was against this thing from the very beginning. He's tried to be a good soldier here, but he's kind of been pushed out of this thing. I'm at a loss to see what's been achieved. And beyond that, I'm unclear as to how Donald Trump is going to portray this as any kind of win. We like to compare and contrast here from time to time.

Starting point is 00:03:29 You go back 25 years, and when George W. Bush invaded Iraq, which admittedly Canada didn't take part in which Canada opposed, they replaced the government. Saddam Hussein was arrested and executed. There is a new day for Iraq. It's not, you know, terrorism isn't over, but there is a new day for Iraq. None of that appears to be the situation in Iran right now. So I'm not sure what this was all about. If I can get your take on what's going to be happening here at home today. Sure.

Starting point is 00:03:58 The annual Western Premier's Conference kicks off in Canaanascus. I mean, it's unimaginable that the premiers wouldn't discuss Alberta separatism when they meet around the table today. It could get particularly awkward, I imagine, between Alberta Premier Daniel Smith and BC Premier David Eby, who earlier said, you know, he called attention to the irony around Canadian leaders meeting in a province, who he said had a premier that was essentially setting the stage to leave Canada. I mean, awkward is a good word. These two don't have much in common to begin with, right? He's British Columbia. She's Alberta. He's New Democrat. She's conservative.

Starting point is 00:04:34 She wants to have access to his province in order to get her product to market. He's saying, absolutely not. We've got a tanker ban off our coast as well. He's saying, why is it that in our federation, all the people who behave worst seem to get what they want? And, of course, that's a reference to her putting the separatism referendum at the question to have a question this October. Yeah, this is going to be more than awkward. The prime minister has a bit of a tightrope to walk here, although, Karen, not all that much, I suspect. He's pretty clearly planted his flag with the province of Alberta here because he understands the separatism threat. He understands the desire to turn Canada into an energy superpower.

Starting point is 00:05:13 And therefore, he's put a lot of water in federal wine and gone a long way to meeting the debate. of the Premier of Alberta. So David Eby may find himself, the British Columbia Premier, he may find himself a little bit like the guy sitting by himself in the corner at this meeting. How do public disagreements between the premiers, though, make it any harder for Canadian negotiators who are looking ahead to really tough Kuzma talks this summer? How does it make their job harder to hold the line against the Americans who want to see this country destabilize?

Starting point is 00:05:41 It just does. I mean, the reality is it's, having said that, you know, the notion that our federal negotiators could go into a Kusma, or Yusmaca, as I like to call it, into those negotiations with 10 provinces all on side, all agreeing with the federal position. I mean, that's never going to happen anyway. But clearly, this business between Alberta and British Columbia

Starting point is 00:06:01 just complicates matters even more. Although, let's see. David E.B. politically right now is not in a great spot. Danielle Smith, at the moment, seems to be in control of her province, but, of course, politics has a way of, you know, turning on a dime and leaving a nickel change, as they say. Steve, appreciate your analysis, as always. See you tomorrow.

Starting point is 00:06:18 tomorrow. Okay. And that's your morning brief for Monday, May 25th, 2026. Now let's see what the rest of the day has in store for us.

The Paikin Podcast - Morning Brief: Trump’s Iran Deal and Alberta Tensions

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