The Paikin Podcast - Morning Brief: Trump’s Iran Stalemate and Summer Politics

Episode Date: May 31, 2026

Steve Paikin and Caryn Ceolin reflect on the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran three months after the war began, examining Donald Trump’s struggle to secure a deal and the political and economic fallout ahead of the U.S. midterms. They also discuss Canada-U.S. trade talks, Mark Carney’s foreign policy ambitions, and wrap up the season with a few summer plans. This is your Morning Brief for Friday, May 29th. Support us: patreon.com/thepaikinpodcast Follow The Paikin Podcast: YOUTUBE: http://www.youtube.com/@ThePaikinPodcastSPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/1OhwznCIUEA11lZGcNIM4h?si=b5d73bc7c3a041b7X: x.com/ThePaikinPodINSTAGRAM: instagram.com/thepaikinpodcastBLUESKY: bsky.app/profile/thepaikinpodcast.bsky.social Email us at: [e-mail] 

Good morning and happy Friday, Karen Cieland, Steve Paken with you. Steve, I mean, three months. This is our last segment of Paken on politics until we go on summer hiatus because summer is just around the corner. Parting will be such sweet sorrow, I'm afraid. Yeah, because you'll get a little bit of extra time to sleep in in the mornings. I will not be getting up at 5 a.m. every day, but you're still going to be getting up at 2.30 a.m. I will. That is outrageous. I will. Good for you. But don't worry. I'll have an extra cup of coffee for you. Excellent. But one of the first things we discussed, because actually just the weekend before we started Pagan on politics, a joint U.S. Israeli military operation killed Iran's supreme leader. So I thought, you know what, let's revisit because what the heck has happened in three months.

President Donald Trump, you know, stated that his goals were regime change. Then I went to protecting the Iranian people. Then it went to, you know, preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon. Those strategic goals, none have been achieved. Instead, three months later, we've got a global energy crisis. The president has consistently said since mid-March that there's a deal to end the war. It's coming. It's coming.

And the two sides seem further apart than ever. I mean, what do you make of what we've seen? The segment's called Pakenan politics. So let's start with the politics of all of this. How ironic is it that the man who, I think, in very large part, got elected to keep America out of adventurous foreign wars, is now embroiled in one and does not appear to have. an easy off ramp to getting out of this thing. He has been sort of teasing for the last several days that a deal is close, and of course you know me, I don't make bad deals, so a deal is close, and yet here we are, drip, drip, drip, drip, this faucet continues to drip, drip,

with no apparent obvious end to this thing in mind. And even yesterday, they were still dropping bombs on each other, right? Both sides were still firing against each other. This thing has, to be sure, and I liked your checklist, and you could add to that checklist, stopping Iran from exporting terrorism around the region and the world. That, my hunch is, is not going to be achieved in this at all. But for a guy who promised to keep America out of overly aggressive, adventurous foreign wars to be three months into one, to watch what it's done to the economy, to watch what it's done to his relationship with America's allies, to watch what it's done to the price of gas, it's passing strange. And for a president who, as you say, is such a huge part of his personal brand, he self-proclaims, I make good deals.

And he can't get Iran to the negotiating table. Where's the good deal here? It has not happened yet. I mean, he seems to be in quite a bit of a bind, I would think, because on the one hand, he could risk angering more Republicans by agreeing to a deal that Senate Republicans in particular think already favors the Iranian government and empowers Iran and its claim over the Strait of Hormuz. he can let the stalemate continue. He can let the economic costs associated with this war continue to mount ahead of the midterms. I mean, I think the big challenge for him now is trying to find creative ways to sell this war, especially to Republicans in his own party who are going to be upset with, pardon me, sell a deal who are upset with the deals he's presented so far.

No question about it. And I'm going to raise a different angle here. And that angle is Venezuela. I think the president got a false sense of what is achievable in foreign policy when he very successfully, I have to say, made the decision. I mean, if this is what you want to do, it may have been against international law, but he did it successfully, sent a force in, kidnapped the former president of Venezuela, brought him back to the U.S. for trial, and it was all over in 24 hours.

That may have given him a false sense of security about how easy it is to accomplish your goals in foreign affairs, because before long, he's launched this action against Iran, again with the participation of the Israelis. And that's another angle we haven't talked about. What's happening with them? I mean, if Trump decides it's over, does that mean it's over for Israel as well, even if the goals have not been achieved, which Israel would want to see achieved? It's all very complex at the moment. Steve, anything in particular you're, and I know I'm just throwing this at you, anything in particular you're watching for this summer, doesn't have to be Iran-related, any story in particular that you're going to have your eyes on through the summer months. I mean, I say a bunch. I obviously want to see whether or not Canada and the United States get back to some kind of negotiating table for a USMACA, KUSMA, new renewed NAFTA deal.

I mean, that's obviously the most important issue for Canada. I want to see whether Mark Carney's attempt to get some kind of third way in international affairs actually starts to take flight. We clearly have a more challenging relationship with the United States now. Are we, as a middle power, able to get other middle powers on board to take a greater role in the United States? leadership in this world. And I guess most importantly, I want to know who the Leafs are going to draft first overall. What an honor it has been to start my mornings with you for us to learn from you every morning. You have some plans this summer.

You're headed to Manitoulin. I got a little camp on Manitoulin Island, which is seven hours drive north of here. So we hang out there for a bit. And Karen, let me say, can I embarrass you for 30 seconds here? No. Sorry, I'm going to use my prerogative here to say you are unfailingly profanely. and prepared every single morning that I come in here where I'm still wiping the sleep out of my eyes. You are amazing. And I could not have been in better hands over the last little while.

What have you got there? Oh, my gosh. Something for you to remember us by. Oh, my goodness. Am I supposed to open this now or later? Open it now. Okay. Let's do this now. Oh, fantastic. We're going to be twins. Oh, my gosh. Are you kidding me? Yeah. Look at that. Karen. Oh, look at you. Isn't that fantastic? Oh, man. I love that. There's one more little thing. Because I know you loved your Tim Horton's mug so much. I bought you something to drink coffee out of this summer. Oh, my.

Cheers. Not a chance. Cheers. Karen, I can think of a garbage bin this is going to look great in. Karen, how could you possibly give this to me and expect me to use it? There's a gift receipt. You know what? There's a gift receipt.

Truth be told. I'm going to watch tonight. Are you going to watch the hockey game tonight? Yeah, I'm going to have to. Okay, so I'm certainly hoping that Carolina puts the habs out of their misery tonight, but I hate to admit it on BT. My wife's a bit of a habs fan. I'll give this to her.

There you go. She can have that. Steve, a pleasure. We always fist bump at the end. Thank you so much for everything. And God willing, I'll see you in the fall. Yes. Have a wonderful summer.

Thank you. Ciao, everybody.