The Paikin Podcast - Paik’s Takes: Canada in the EU, American Influence in Alberta, and Soccer is Boring

Episode Date: July 14, 2026

In our third edition of “Paik’s Takes,” Steve is joined by The Big Story’s Caryn Ceolin to discuss why Steve thinks soccer is boring, whether the World Cup was worth it for Canada, why Steve thinks municipal politics should be capturing more of our attention, including the race for Toronto mayor, and Caryn’s take that America’s next Democratic presidential candidate will not run on a platform of free trade. They then answer a wide range of listener and viewer comments and questions: Steve’s greatest political disappointment? Canada joining the EU? Gavin Newsom and the 2028 Democratic nomination American the 51st state? National unity over climate change? Is net zero 2050 still a thing? The scourge of modern dating? Support us: patreon.com/thepaikinpodcast Follow The Paikin Podcast: YOUTUBE: http://www.youtube.com/@ThePaikinPodcastSPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/1OhwznCIUEA11lZGcNIM4h?si=b5d73bc7c3a041b7X: x.com/ThePaikinPodINSTAGRAM: instagram.com/thepaikinpodcastBLUESKY: bsky.app/profile/thepaikinpodcast.bsky.social Email us at: [e-mail] 

Hi, everybody. Steve Paken here. We tried this, oh, I don't know, six weeks, seven weeks ago. And the reaction to it seemed to be pretty good. So we think we're going to roll it out of the closet and try take two here. Karen C. Olin from Breakfast Television, we did that Paken on politics hit together, weekday mornings on City TV. She's going to join us. And we're going to do a little thing we call Pakes takes, where I have, I don't know, a couple of takes on issues that are sort of prominent in the news these days. And then thankfully, you have been sending. in your comments and questions for me, and she will put some of those to me. And 45 minutes from now, we hope to have a delightful little piece of content for you to consume. So without further ado, here come, Pakes Takes on the Paken podcast. I am so happy to welcome back to these airwaves, Karen Ceyolan from Breakfast Television on City TV, whom I have missed so much over these last, oh, I don't know what, six weeks, seven weeks that we haven't been doing, BT. Karen, lovely to see you again. Steve, I've missed you in the mornings. How the heck have you been? Fantastic. Actually, that's exactly where I want to start because I don't think we've done,

I think we did our last hit at the end of May and I need to know absolutely everything that you've done minute by minute since then. Oh, you know, I'm staying out real late these days. No, no, I'm going to bed early still. I'm basically exactly the same as you left me. But you've got some really nice walls behind you. You're at your cottage. I am at the cottage on Manitoulin Island. And you've got a friend Chipmunk. I do. That's true.

I get a little chipmunk that comes up to me pretty much every day and wants some peanuts or something from me. And he's so friendly, he will jump up on my chair. And then sometimes he feels so comfortable with me. He'll jump up on top of my laptop while I'm working. And we'll just have a, you know, we'll just have a little conversation. And then he'll go back and do his thing. Steve, I've been dying to ask you because before you left BT, I said, what are you watching for the summer? and one of the things you were watching for was the NHL draft.

How you feel in about Gavin McKenna coming to the Leaps? I need your take. I feel fabulous. The short answer is very fabulous. Now, is he going to be an impact player on day one? I doubt it he's a young guy, but they made the right choice. He seems to have a fabulous attitude. You know, oh, I shouldn't say this.

But this is how I feel, so I'm going to say it. You got a little bit like a guy who, beats up another guy because the other guy insulted your mother. And he actually got charged for doing that somewhere along the way. So, I don't know. Maybe make love, not war. But on the other hand, you know, a guy with a bit of moxie is not a bad thing for the Toronto Maple Leafs who have complete, I know you're following this very carefully. They've completely remastered their roster right now. They got rid of so many guys. They've got some new guys in, including a fantastic Stanley Cup champion goaltender. So I'm stupidly optimistic about the least.

chances this year, but I'm sure you will bring me back to Earth at some point. Listen, those are just words to me, but I'm happy. You're happy. Now, tell me something, I know that, I know that your husband always loves to hear about my, my adventures, because he sort of lives vicariously through, through me. We both do. Well, you're going to bed at 7 o'clock every night to get up at 2.30 in the morning for your show. So I do want to share what I thought was the coolest thing I've done since you and I last saw each other. And that was, I think we finished BT on a Friday. And the following Monday,

I flew up to Timmons with quite a crew of people because, of course, I'm shooting this documentary on Bill Barilco, who scored the greatest goal in Maple Leafs history, right? He scored in overtime to win the Leafs the Cup as the grateful, I was about to say grateful dead, as the tragically hip song says. And this was 75 years ago this year. It was in April of 51 that he scored the goal. And then a months later he went on a fishing trip in northern ontario and on his way back the plane crashed and he and the pilot died and for 11 years no one could find them despite the biggest manhunt in canadian history 11 years later they found the bodies 11 years later after no stanley cups the leaps won the stanley cup so it's an incredible story and my team and i actually went to the site of the crash you fly to timmons

you take a chopper close to the area and then for two hours you walk through very dense brush to get to the spot where the plane crashed. And we had local people take us there so they knew the exact coordinates where the plane went down. And Karen, I have to tell you,

I mean, I'm obviously, you know, not old enough to have experienced any of that, the Barocco goal or the aftermath or anything. But it was emotional. And there's a sense that you're kind of on tragically hallowed ground when you get to that. site and then we you know we went to the cemetery and we saw where where they finally repatriated his

remains and he got a decent burial and anyway it was it was very heavy and um the documentary will be out next year and can't wait to show it to everybody what an incredible experience i was following along on your ex account because you were posting pictures and and video and yeah the emotion i mean it came through the screen like you could feel how happy that experience was i'm very much looking forward to watching that documentary steve amen we have quite figured out when it's going to come out. We got a few hooks here. Maybe I should get your advice on this. You know, the 100th anniversary of Bill Barilco's birth is next March. The Hot Docs Film Festival is in April. And Tiff is in whatever it is, September. So we got three potential

hooks to bring the documentary, because it should be finished by the beginning of next year. So, I don't know. What do you think? I always like hot docks. Hot Docs is nice, yeah? Premier, yeah. Yeah, very cool festival. So, okay, I will take that back to the team. Very good. Oh, you know what? Before we go any further, I got to tell you about, I was in Toronto on Canada Day and did something that, you know, when I'm able to, I love to do, which is to go to the Canada Day Blue Jay game at the, sorry, I'm still calling it Skydome, but okay, Roger Center.

And it's amazing. Every time I go to the dome, I get approached by so many people. and like Karen, I feel like that much of a rock star for two hours because people want to come up to me and talk to me about you and they talk about BT. And I always say to people, you do know I've been on TVO for 33 years, right? 34 next month. So, but no, they love the BT segment. Even though it hadn't been on for a month, they're still talking to me about it. And yeah, two people in particular, Daryl and Rhonda Schofield, who are from Gravenhurst.

And Daryl was a teacher, and we talked all about the segment and about the pending teacher negotiations with the Ontario government, which no doubt will be tricky. So anyway, hello to the Schofields who are not related to Dick Schofield, who played for the Blue Jace, although I'm sure he tells everybody he was or is. But anyway, that's our segment for whatever reason, you know, still seems to resonate a little bit, even though we haven't been on the air for about six weeks. You're in paradise, but the World Cup still couldn't keep you out of Toronto. Couldn't keep you away. You know, okay, so take number one, here we go. I don't care for soccer. I feel about soccer the way you feel about all sports.

But I have to confess that I've kind of got into this whole World Cup thing, in part because some of the games were in Toronto and Vancouver, and in part because I went down to Fan Fest for one day to check it out, and it actually was a ton of fun. And however, oh, boy. Here's where I get into trouble. However, I'm still not going to become a soccer fan. There's no way I'm going to be following the Premier League.

I'm not going to follow UEFA. I've been to a couple of Toronto FC games in my life. I've never seen the white caps in person. I don't imagine I'm going to be. I'm just wondering, is this reaction I'm having right now, which is to get sucked into the whole hoopla of World Cup and enjoying the fact that Canada, I guess, you know, had its moment in the World Cup,

and it was all very exciting until it was over. But, you know, in terms of long-lasting seeds planted and turning me into a soccer fan and therefore I'm going to start to follow all this, no. How about you? Okay, I want to pick that apart very quickly because as someone who doesn't watch sports, period, and finds all of them boring, to me, soccer is similar enough to hockey in that it is a low-scoring sport. Like, every goal is rare? Like, what is it that you find boring about soccer?

First of all, Karen, I adore you, but you're wrong already. Soccer has zero zero, excuse me, nil, nil, scores. Now, not on the World Cup, admittedly, but there can be entire games where there are no goals scored. I mean, that does not happen. Is that why? Like, it's anti-climatic?

You know, North American sports fans love scoring. There is very little scoring in soccer. Although every now and then, my gosh, that Argentina-Egypt game the other day, where Egypt was leading two-nothing with about, oh, I don't know, just a matter of a handful of minutes to go and somehow Argentina scored three goals in the time remaining and won the game. I mean, that was extraordinary. But as all the announcer said, that is really a rare occurrence. That's like Halley's Comet Rare or maybe Comet Cahutec rare. Anyway, you don't see that often. There's a lot more scoring in hockey.

And beyond that, there's a lot more action in hockey. Hockey's fast. Hockey's, you know, soccer's bruising, hockey's bruising. But just how much of soccer is kick the ball around the perimeter, around the perimeter, around the perimeter, around the perimeter, goalie kicks, kick it around the perimeter, around the perimeter, scoring chance. There's something like four or five or six shots on goal in the whole game in hockey. Okay.

You know, each team gets 25, 30, 35, 40 shots on goal in the whole game. So I still need the speed and brutality of hockey. and I just don't see it to soccer. As someone who is a bandwagon fan, so I will jump on any bandwagon if Team Canada is doing well. Like, I think this, like, FIFA was a nation-building event for Canada. Like Toronto and Vancouver, they lived up to their hosting duties.

It was, it was electric. Like, as Canadians, I think we can only sincerely hope that, you know, boosting civic pride, global exposure, you know, even enrollment, grassroots enrollment in organized soccer, we can only hope that it'll be our World Cup posting legacy, right? But I think what you have just articulated is that at the end of the day, Canada remains a hockey nation, right? And I think just how much a soccer nation Canada is after the World Cup, I think will ultimately be tested when that MLS season kicks off and will more people buy tickets to watch the teams in Vancouver, in Toronto, Montreal's got a team too.

Like, I don't know. I think that's a very fair comment. We are not going to know how big the trees of the seeds that were planted over the past two weeks will be for many, many years down the road. I would say, though, that I'm sure there are going to be all kinds of economic analyses coming forward. And, you know, your job and my job in the days, weeks and months ahead will no doubt be at some point to do a story on, okay, the games cost this much. was it worth it? Now, I think you and I agree from a kind of a psychic nation building experience, these games were worth hosting. And as corrupt as FIFA is, and we saw that with the U.S. Gosh, I forget already. Who did they play? Who beat the United States in that game? It was Belgium.

Belgium, right. Thank you. The corruption displayed by FIFA in reinstating that American player who was denied the right to play because of the red cards. like that's just sports at its worst, all of that kind of politicking. You know, Donald Trump makes a phone call and the guy's back in the game. So I couldn't stand any of that stuff. But the joy created by hosting the games

and by Canada doing so well. I mean, we scored our first ever World Cup goal. We got our first ever World Cup victories. We made it further than we've ever made it before. The team is lovable, right? Like the coach, the way the coach got the players together after the game was over. and told them, you know, you guys are heroes.

There are kids who are going to take up soccer today, and this game is going to grow going forward because of what you were able to do during this tournament. I loved all that drama. Now, maybe guys my age are not suddenly going to become soccer fans overnight and start scouring the newspapers every morning looking for last night's scores. Didn't I just show my age by saying that? Scouring the newspapers looking for scores?

The newspapers? Exactly. Nobody does that anymore. But for young kids, yeah, maybe something. But I guess, you know, people who work for news shows like you do, at some point are going to be looking into, this cost us hundreds of millions of dollars, if not more, was it worth it? And the jury's still out on that. I don't know if it provided the economic boon to Canada that that kind of investment suggests. But, you know, we'll wait and see. I don't think it also provided perhaps the lasting infrastructure, like the Olympics in 2010 did in Vancouver, like when they got the sky train. Like those were, that was a legacy of the Olympics and something that they now have forever.

I don't know in terms of the infrastructure they built for the World Cup will also be lasting, especially for instance, if we look at the modifications that were done to BMO Field or Toronto, which turned into Toronto Stadium. Like those were temporary. And they came down literally the next day after. Toronto, Toronto hosted its last match. Not game, match. We're all getting the lingo right, right? It's nil, nil.

You take penalties. You don't take penalty kicks. It's just penalties. Match. Pitch, not field, right? Pitch. Right. Yep.

Pitch. Anyway, I think we're getting the hang of it. But I agree. Like, how many people do you know who said, I'm leaving the city? I mean, the city is going to be non-navigable during the time of the World Cup. I'm leaving town.

I think, you know, I wonder, I don't know, I wonder whether or not all of the, you know, the bars and the restaurants and the hotels. And, you know, we've already started to hear some stories about how FIFA overestimated how many hotel rooms they would need and therefore more sat empty, partially because they didn't need as many and partially because they probably charged extortion rates for those hotel rooms. So, you know, you do wonder down the road when the final bill comes in whether economically it was worth it. Psychically, for sure. Economically, I don't know. I don't know if economically these things like are ever worth it. Like I don't think they ever provide the boost to GDP that they're, you know, kind of predicted to. What I'd like to keep an eye on, though, is how the government in particular, perhaps builds on this momentum when it comes to turning that grassroots participation into, you know, prospective soccer professionals.

like how will Canada's own historic performance materially impact soccer here at home? Because, yeah, we don't think of ourselves as a soccer nation. We never really have. Perhaps we're more of a soccer nation today than we were a few weeks ago. No question about it. How do we actually fund Canada soccer properly so that, you know, young players actually have a pathway to perhaps taking a professional a professional look at this. Yeah. Well, we know that the one thing soccer has going for it is that the bar to entry

is the lowest of any sport. You know, you need a pair of running shoes and you need a soccer ball. And that's it. You know, for hockey, it's kind of amazing, actually, that hockey is still as popular as it is because the bar to entry is hundreds, if not thousands of dollars if you want to excel in hockey. And, you know, everything from equipment to entry fees, to tournaments, to travel, to, you know, you got to buy a team jacket. I mean, there's so much. many ways they get you. Soccer, it's pretty simple. So, you know, if you look in the, you and I need to do this conversation, we need to do another take's takes in 20 years and see whether or not, you know, all of the seeds that were planted over the last few weeks are actually

going to sprout something impressive. We shall see. Well, let me ask you this. And this is kind of a segue heading into your next take. What do you think the World's Cup will do for perhaps the mayor's chances in Toronto. Ah, isn't that? Wow. That was impressive. That was deeply impressive because, of course, municipal politics was going to be my next take. And I love the way you just blended the two of them in there

together. Here's something interesting that unless you went down to FIFA, I'm not sure people would know, unless you went to the FIFA fan fest down at Fort York near the waterfront in Toronto. And that is, before every game, there were video greetings put on the huge jumbo-tron where people gathered. And when Olivia Chow gave her message to the crowd,

people were quiet. There were modest cheers. It went fine. When the Premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, did it. The day I was there, there was some grumbling, a little bit of booing. I talked to other people who say that some days there's massive booing. Now, who knows, who knows why this happens. You know, funnily enough, I think Doug Ford got elected in the last election with 43% of the total vote. I think Olivia Chow got something like 38% of the total vote. So technically he's more popular than she is, according to the last election returns. But it does take us very nicely into the next take, which is to say,

we are just a few months away from the municipal elections in 444 municipalities all over the province of Ontario. and there are a few really good humdinger races coming down. And even though municipal politics, I guess, gets the least amount of eyeballs of all the different orders of government, I still think it's worth paying attention to because, number one, who wins matters. There are different positions that the candidates take. So who wins matters. And, of course, just as a person who's interested in citizenship,

I would love to see turnout be as high as it possibly can be. So, okay, fire away. Municipal politics. Here we go. What do you think? You know what? I spoke about this very topic recently with the other half of your on Polly podcast, John Michael McGrath. He joined us on the big story podcast that I host. So shout out to him. And he called the race in particular that's shaping up in Hamilton fun, which I kind of poked fun at him for using the word fun. Fun? Perhaps, yeah, fun. I don't think I've heard anyone use the word fun to describe a municipal election race before, but I respect him for that. But I mean, to your point, Steve, I am really interested to see if the more interesting races boosts turnout on Election Day.

And I did read your column on TVO about the Hamilton's mayoral race, for example, where there are these three prominent candidates vying for the role. And I think that does make a really huge difference because low voter turnout really in municipalities across this country, not just in Ontario. they're often attributed to races that are non-competitive. And I think we need more drama and more big names in races to make people think that their vote is actually going to matter. Because, I mean, your vote's going to matter regardless. Municipal elections, like they have probably the most material consequence on your life. Whoever wins, I think there's the most at stake there. But people don't necessarily see it that way.

And a lot of people end up staying on their couch on election night. So how do we get people out and does having more big names run actually make people think that, you know, their vote is going to matter? I totally think you're right about that one. There's no question that when there's an exciting mayor's race, and I'll take you back 16 years ago to when Rob Ford was running for mayor of Toronto, having spent a decade on city council, and he was running against the former deputy premier of Ontario and a number of other candidates as well, that race had a better than normal turn. I don't want to exaggerate it. It had had a better-than-normal turnout. And, you know, some of the races over the years that tend to produce really compelling storylines will get more people to come out and vote.

There's no doubt about that. This mayor's race in Toronto. Let me go through a few of them here because the one in, well, you started with Hamilton, so let's start there. People certainly in the province of Ontario will remember Andrea Horvath, who was the very longtime leader of the provincial new Democratic Party. She, I guess four years ago now, almost four years ago now, left provincial politics and ran for Mayor of Toronto, Hamilton, successfully.

And she defeated a first-time candidate, a young guy by the name of Keenan Loomis, by a very, very small number of votes. I mean, it was really startling how somebody with so much experience. And remember, Horvath started as a Hamilton City counselor before she got into provincial politics, so she was very much going home in that election, and yet she barely defeated Keenan Luma's. There's a rematch this time between the two of them, and just to make the race even, what did McGrath say,

more fun, just to make it even more fun. There's a city counselor who just got elected in a by-election towards the tail end of last year named Rob Cooper, who's got a lot of experience, you know, as a turnaround consultant to billion-dollar corporations, He's got a lot of business game, and he's thrown his name into the ring as well. So we've got a very strong three-way race. And what makes it intriguing, I think, is that five of the last six mayors races in Hamilton

have been won and done for the incumbent. So this is a city that, for whatever reason, seems to elect mayors, give them one term. If they don't succeed in the view of the electorate, out they go. So Andrea Horvath is running up. against those kind of historic anti-incumbent currents, but there are two strong opponents going against her, and who knows, they could split the vote and she could come back, or I've heard all sorts of things.

I'm obviously being from Hamilton. I'm in Hamilton every weekend visiting my dad, and we talk to a lot of people, and I've talked to people who say they wouldn't be surprised if Horvath won on the splits. They also wouldn't be surprised if she came third. So the race is that dynamic at the moment. Now, you and I both live in the greater,

Toronto area right now. And I think the best mayor's race in the greater Toronto area is in the 416 in the city of Toronto. What do you think? Oh, it's so interesting. But I wanted to actually ask you, like, do you see more care? Because right now, you know, the latest poll that just came out, I think it was from liaison strategies shows Brad Bradford closing the gap on incumbent mayor, Olivia Chow. I wonder though, do you see more perhaps center right candidates, you know, buying for a bid at this? Because right now it's Bradford's race on that side. I will share with you, not the name, but the fact that I got a call the other day from somebody who is kicking the tires, who would be described as center right, who is thinking hard. He's a politician with a considerable

amount of experience in public life, and he is kicking the tires on a potential run for Toronto mayor. And he just called me to get, I've known him a long time, and he just called me to get my, my take on whether he should do it. And we had a nice conversation about it. And given that it was a private conversation, I'm not going to reveal who it was. He had not made up his mind when we spoke. He wanted to consult with a bunch of other people. I kind of laid out all of the typical, what would I say? Karen, I don't think I said anything brilliant. I laid out the obvious. Number one, you know, if there are two center-right candidates in the race, do they run the risk of splitting the anti-Chao vote? and therefore she goes she goes back in,

which is in effect how she won the first time, right? There were, I think, five candidates on the center right last time who split that anti-Chao vote, and she managed to get in because she had the whole kind of very progressive lane all to herself, 38% of the total vote, but enough to win, enough to win. So this person is giving that some thought. If they decide to go for it, you will know who it is. And if they don't, then you'll never know.

because it was an off-the-record conversation, and I'm not going to spill the beans. But the reason other center-right candidates might be taking a look at this is that they are not sure that Brad Bradford has what it takes to defeat Olivia Chow. And if there were a higher profile, better-funded, stronger candidate on the center-right who could come in, the thinking is they would steal all the center-right vote. Bradford would lose his vote, ultimately decide to drop out because he didn't have it. And that's the path to victory. Now, you're not going to find a single person in the Bradford camp who's going to sign on to that. Brad Bradford's been running for me. He's a Toronto City counselor.

Two terms has been running for mayor officially. I think he announced what last fall. So he has been raising money, putting policy together, meeting people, consulting broadly. he's starting to do campaign events now. You know, had the official kickoff of his campaign, I guess a couple of weeks ago. And anyway, he feels,

and given the fact, Karen, that he actually has narrowed the margin of difference between him and Chow, he feels like he's got the wind in his sales, he's got some momentum, and he's the guy to watch,

and anybody else who's thinking about getting in should not. And I guess he's entitled to feel that way. The only caveat I would add, though to that is yes, those new numbers show that he is closing the gap, but nearly 50% of Trontonians are still unfamiliar with who he is. So it was still a striking number. For someone, especially who has been unofficially campaigning for as long as he has and officially campaigning since the fall, to have that number of Trontonians who still don't recognize his name, I imagine,

would be a concern. You know, yes and no. I think we have to remember that the person who tends to win for mayor is the two things. Number one, they really have to know you. They need to know who you are. Olivia Chow's been in public life in and around Toronto for 40 years, right? I remember covering her when she was a school board trustee back in the 1980s. So she went from school board to city hall to parliament and now back to city hall. So she's been around for a very long time. Whether you like or don't, people know her. Okay. Brad Bradford's had two terms on city council, in terms of name recognition and whether people know about him in his record, there's no competition there. He was a public servant before that. Remember, he worked in the public service of City Hall.

So, I mean, his job at that point actually was to sort of stay out of the limelight, not get more of it. So on that head-to-head confrontation, she's well ahead of him. The other option, though, is to catch lightning on a bottle on an issue, right? David Miller with his broom, right? We're going to sweep all of the corruption out of City Hall. There was a computer's leasing scandal at that time back in the early aughts where David Miller caught lightning in a bottle with the iconic broom sweeping. And that worked for him. He went from something like 2% to becoming mayor on election day.

John Torrey campaigning on a one Toronto theme. We're not going to be inner suburbs and the old city anymore. It's one Toronto. That kind of caught on as well, as well as smart track. and that got him, I think, three election victories. I think you can go back before that. Rob Ford, oh my goodness, he had the best lightning in a bottle ever, right? We're going to get rid of the gravy train at City Hall.

I mean, that really caught on as well. So it's not resume. It's not necessarily experience. It's certainly name recognition, and it's certainly getting on top of an issue that you think you can ride. And maybe for Brad Bradford, it's this issue of Sankofa Square, where I know there are a lot of people who just thought the whole process for renaming what used to be Young Dundas Square

was, I don't want to say fixed because that's putting a little too strongly, but it was really not well handled. And we ended up with a name at Young Dundas Square that, I mean, I haven't heard anybody say they love the name. Sankofa really has no connection with Toronto's history and Bradford thinks the process was bad and the name is bad.

And if he can sort of use that to his advantage, maybe he's got something there that can clear the gap. But you know, they always say this, Karen, municipal election races don't really start in earnest until after Labor Day. So we're still in a way in a bit of the phony war period right now. People don't really start to pay attention until after Labor Day. Just to pick up on your point very quickly about, you know, name recognition and the incumbent factor being a huge factor when it comes

to, I think, in particular municipal races. I think that's what I respect the most about Hamilton being like a one-and-done city and keeping their mayors humble. Like, I think it actually serves the electorate well. Yeah, fair enough. And, you know, the other big mayor's race, I think that will be of interest. And I'll just drop this one quickly is Mississauga. You know, Carolyn Parrish got elected last time, first time out, pretty popular mayor.

Doug Ford, the premier of the province, is a big supporter of hers. Bonnie Cromby, of course, the previous mayor. left to run provincially, led the Liberal Party, didn't work out for her, hearing lots of rumblings that she's going to throw her hat back into the ring and try and recapture her old job. So if the two of them go up against each other, and there's a couple of other city counselors, Alvin Ted Joe and Dipico Damila, who are also running for that, that could be a great contest with four big names in the race. So, Steve, if we have time, I'm going to share my take, which doesn't have to do with

municipal elections, but American elections, actually. And I've been thinking about this, in particular, after that July 1st, Cozma Review deadline came and went. And I don't think we should expect a candidate in, you know, upcoming American elections, either the midterms or the 2028 presidential election, Democrat or Republican, who's going to run on a ticket of absolute unregulated free trade. So this take was formed partially in part by a conversation that I had on the Big Story podcast with, a former trade advisor to the Federal Finance Department. And his name is Julian Caragacassian. And his argument was essentially that American protectionism doesn't have its roots in Trump. It has roots in the 80s, the 90s, the 2000s, which of course saw severe deindustrialization.

It created this backlash against globalization and free trade. And Trump ultimately tapped into that. And obviously, we've seen him try to combat deindustrialization by kind of short circling this global trade system with tariffs. But I think what's really interesting here is that several of the swing states, both in the 26 midterms and in the 28 presidential elections, they make up deindustrialized parts of the U.S. And the other thing I'd probably mention is that former president, Joe Biden, he too had a focus on repatriating manufacturing. And I would say that, I would argue that he maintained a lot of the protectionist policies of his predecessor.

And so I don't see a reality in which we get a candidate or some sort of Democratic savior who's going to run on a ticket of breach rate as we know it. You know, as much as I love to find opportunities for you and I to disagree as we do on the importance of sports in this world, I have to say I agree completely with this take of yours. Yeah, I know there's many Canadians who are holding out great hope that there will be a Democratic Party candidate for president come forward, who will get rid of all the tariffs. And, you know, we're going to send our negotiator to Washington and peace will break out and we'll all sing kumbaya together and we'll get a nice new trade deal, a lickety split. No, I don't see that happening either. I think when Trump

put the tariffs in in the first term, Joe Biden kept a lot of them when he came in. And now, of course, Trump has made them even worse on us. So Trump, I know there is a popular view out there that Trump is the cause of so much of our misery in this country. And I think I tend to be with those who say he's not the cause. He is a reflection of a period of time that America is going through right now. Now, there's a whole lot of reasons to dislike Trump, particularly if you're a Canadian. And even if you're, you know, half of the United States or more than half these days. But the notion that he has sort of led this phenomenon of whatever happening,

his happening is going on. I don't think that's the case. I've just talked to too many people who believe that this was coming. This was coming. And he happens to be the guy in the Oval Office when it's happening. And it might be a good match of his, I hesitate to use the phrase skill set, but certainly his brand. His brand has met this moment, which has enabled him to get elected twice, not three times,

as he would suggest, but twice. Anyway, I'd love to disagree with you, but I can't. And we'll be back right after this. Let me ask you this. This is from Raphael from Facebook. He says, Steve, what is your greatest political disappointment you have experienced in Canada? Gosh, what a hard question that is. See, I think people who are partisans, you know, who care about who wins elections.

And as a guy who's been in journalism for more than 40 years, I've trained myself not to care about who wins elections. I cover elections. I never tell people who I vote for. I don't express any opinions about preferred outcomes. So to that extent, I can't say that the result of any election has ever disappointed me. I remember talking to a guy named Hugh Siegel, who for people of a certain generation will remember him as a senior advisor to former Ontario Premier Bill Davis back in the day.

And back in 1987, Hugh Siegel was there in the trenches trying to help us friend Larry Grossman, who was the leader of the Ontario PC party, win the election over an incredibly popular David Peterson and his liberals at the time. And the result of the election was the biggest majority in Ontario history for David Peterson. And Larry Grossman, the leader of the Tories, not only lost the election and put the Tories into third place, which has never happened before, but he lost his seat as well. A seat incidentally that he had held for 12 years and his father had held before him. So it was a repudiation of historic proportions. And I remember Hugh Siegel saying to me when I asked him about this, he said, look, the voters are never wrong. A little too

extreme sometimes, but they're never wrong. And so I would not be able to offer an opinion on any election outcome that disappointed me. I will go this far, though, and say, I'm saddened when, for example, in 1995, the referendum outcome between, I guess, the yes and no forces in taking Quebec out of Canada was so close. That was sad. And I think I can be on pretty solid ground in saying, I certainly hope the people of Alberta want to stay in Canada. And I hope that the question to ask a question that will be on their ballots in October, I certainly hope that they will make the choice to be part of Canada. So if they didn't, that would really disappoint me. But that, you know, we're still a few months away from that. So let's hold off on that. Andrew from Facebook

asks thoughts on Canada joining the EU. After all, we border Denmark and France is 12 nautical miles away. Right. I guess that's a reference to Sanpira Mikhailo in the St. Lawrence River. Yeah. Look, that option seems very appealing right now because we are in the midst of an historically bad relationship with the United States, which I suspect has not been this bad since the war of 1812. But let's remember, the European Union is an organization, which it was a kind of a miracle that they came together. They went for a common currency. they have a means of resolving their disputes in the European Parliament, which, you know, thankfully has kept the peace among European powers in a way that was impossible for the previous one or two

thousand years. So that's all good. Having said that, it is the most bureaucratic organization in the world. I'm not sure we want to be hitching our wagon in such a formal way to an organization where you need 30 yes votes before you can get anything done. So I'm not sure that's an option for us, although on the days when Trump is being particularly bellicose towards us, it does feel like a, feels like an option we ought to consider. But, I mean, it would be complex and costly. Oh, yeah.

Yeah. At the end of the day, not doable. Let's see here. Jeremy from Patreon, pardon me. Who do you think is going to win the 2028 Democratic nomination? Do you think Gavin Newsom gives off any Polyev-Monclare vibes insofar as being too good of an opposition leader, people may not want him to be the guy in charge? Well, Jeremy, I'm going to disappoint you here by sticking to a rule that I have always stuck by for 40 years in journalism. And that is, I don't make predictions.

I don't make predictions. You know, I might make them quietly to myself, but I never express what they are because as soon as I think you make a prediction, you start to be. invested in the outcome and you start to watch events unfold through the prism of well here's who i think is going to win and and i just don't think that helps you i think you need to keep as open a mind as possible to whatever possibilities could take place is gavin newsome from a big state is he a big you know solid governor with a decent record who's you know a good-looking guy who knows how to debate um you know who's got his ups and downs for sure but he's got his plus and minuses like every other candidate. Sure. Having said that, you know, it is rare that the

nominee for one of the presidential tickets is from the state of California. That doesn't happen very often. Kamala Harris, I guess, was an exception to the rule. Richard Nixon, I guess, was an exception to the rule. But in the main, presidential nominees come from different states. and particularly right now, you know, California is going to go blue. It's going to be a democratic state. So the notion that you have to pick a leader from California in order to secure those votes, it's just not there.

Oh, Ronald Reagan, I forgot about him. He's California too. Usually it's from a state that could go either way that the president has picked. I mean, that's one of the reasons I think Joe Biden got picked as the nominee because, you know, Pennsylvania was very much in play, and he had roots in Scranton, Pennsylvania. It's one of the reasons a lot of people are looking at Josh Shapiro,

who the current governor of Pennsylvania. Anyway, I'm not going to make a prediction on this. He's certainly in the mix. Shapiro's in the mix. Pritzker, the governor of Illinois, is in the mix. Pete Buttigieg, the former cabinet minister for Joe Biden is in the mix. I'm sure there are a bunch of others as well that I haven't thought of right now, but let's watch it unfold and just enjoy the show.

Yeah, California is like a really hard sell to working class swing state voters. Right, for sure. That's, yeah, that's probably his biggest political vulnerability. This question here comes from Gabrielle. She says, I'd like an analysis of where, if any, money is flowing from the U.S. into Alberta politics and generally into companies and media companies in Canada that influence our politics. I keep hearing the stench of American points of view sweeping into some media. This is a great and important question. And to be sure, there are always external forces that try to, I mean, we just had a whole Royal Commission on this, right, about the influence of external money and or resources and or people on nominating races for political parties for elections. So we know this has been happening. I am hearing, I can't prove anything right now, but I've talked to so many people who are 110.

sure that there is American money right now going into Alberta to support the, let's take Alberta out of Canada forces. I think we know that a lot of the people who are behind the leave movement in Alberta, imagine that Alberta could be an independent country at the end of the day. And my hunch is that they are wrong if they think that's an option. I cannot imagine that Alberta would be an independent country for long before it. Remember, we're talking about population of what, four or five million people here. It would not be long before the United States started eyeing it for its 51st state. There's just no question of my mind about that. So I'm hearing rumblings that there's lots of offshore money, down south money coming into Alberta to support the leave side.

And, you know, our officials ought to be vigilant as hell to be on top of that and make sure that this is a fair fight. They want to have a referendum about it? That's their business. But foreign money coming in to influence the outcome of what should be a strictly Alberta decision? Don't like that at all. Steve, this one

kind of plays into that. And it's a long one. It's a two-parter. So the first part is from Conan on Patreon. He says, fossil fuels are being replaced in Europe at a fairly impressive rate since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the rate of replacement has increased. I do not understand

the need to build a pipeline to customers who may not exist in 10 years. If net zero 2050 is still a real target, those customers will only exist for 15 years. If net zero 2050 is not the target, then I guess we are all okay with leaving the world worse than we found it. And just to pick up on that, Brian from Facebook, a bit of a shorter synopsis here, he says, should Canada be building another pipeline, especially now when extreme temperatures are obviously causing calamities around the world. Yeah, these are obviously very reasonable questions. And I look at, I'm not going to say whether the decisions coming out of the prime minister's office are good or bad, but I will say this prime minister has made a decision that he is going to favor national unity over climate change.

Now, you can try and dress that up and put some wrapping paper on it and put a bow on it. And and try and say that's not what's happening. But that's what's happening. The prime minister who's got to remember, grew up in Alberta, is of the view that if he doesn't put in his back pocket for now, all of the regulations that his predecessor put in place to deal with climate change and deal with the very real concerns that if Alberta doesn't exploit its natural resources,

the forces for separation in Alberta will be worse? Well, he's made that decision. It's his call to make it. He's made that call. there are a bunch of people who disagree with that call. We saw that he lost a cabinet minister, Stephen Giebo, over that issue, right? He just cannot sanction that position. But it's the prime minister's job, job one, you could argue, to keep the country together.

And it's his view that if we go too hard on environmental regulations related to the oil sands, it will fan the flames of separation in Alberta and will lose the country as we'll, know it. So that's the calculation he's made. If you don't like that calculation, vote for another party because my hunch is he's not changing his mind on that. Can I ask you a question related to that? And, and, you know, as you point out, too, like the pendulum of public opinion has also decisively swung from climate issues to a renewed focus on the economy. I wonder what you make, though, of this private sector partnership for the Alberta pipeline. Like, what does it tell you that it requires such a level of like government investment and and and derisking well it tells you a lot doesn't it i

mean the reality is just and trudeau spent billions buying a pipeline and at the moment you know i saw the other day daniel smith and dug ford the premiers of alberta and ontario uh had a news conference in which they put a different path for a pipeline which actually goes through ontario uh put that one on the record but you know as as we've often seen in the past you know if you don't have a private sector partner, you can draw lines on a map wherever you want. It's not going to happen. So up and until private sector partners feel that there's a government in place that will, regardless of who's in power, give them the certainty they need to invest the billions that they would have to invest, we're not going to see much happening. And if the public sector has to take

on that responsibility to make the whole thing happen, one of two things will happen. Either they will take all the risk and probably as these things go not get all of the reward, which is unfortunate, or it's not going to happen because it just falls apart on its own economic illogic. So that, to me, that's the, that's the path we have to watch going forward. Ryan from Facebook asks, why won't Ontarians give the NDP another chance to govern? They were dealt with a poor hand, did their best, and the voters never forgave them. On the other we seem to forgive and forget the liberal and conservatives misgivings regularly. This is right in my wheelhouse as a guy who's watched Queens Park for more than four decades

and have often asked myself and never really come up with a good answer. We've had, I think, 44 elections in Ontario history and 42 of them have been won by liberals or conservatives. Only two were won by parties that were not liberal and conservative. The ND. in 1990, the one he referenced, and then the United Farmers of Ontario in 1919, which was a really unusual election because the farmers movement had gained such steam so quickly that the farmers actually won that election, even though they didn't have a leader in place. They picked a leader after they won the election. Ernest Drury was his name, and he became the Premier.

I've talked to Mara Stiles about this, who's the Ontario NDP leader, and I've said, you know, let me just say for the record she's a very appealing leader she's got a lot of game she's got good communication skills when she ran for the leadership of her party nobody opposed her so she has a good grasp on the leadership

of her party there's nobody who is an obvious opponent for her at the moment so her leadership is secure and I mentioned to her you know I don't know why but for whatever reason when people are looking for an alternative to the

current government, they just don't think about the NDP. They almost never have one time only. And she acknowledges that's something that she's got to break through on. She's got to get people to consider NDP as an option in a way they never have before. And strangely enough, you know, they've done something the last three elections in a row, which they've never done before. And that is they have formed the official opposition. They've come second three times in a row. That's never happened before. Just as the liberal. have come third three times in a row, and that's never happened before. And yet they've done it kind of in an odd way.

They've done it on the splits. In other words, the liberals got almost 30% of the vote, but it was a poorly distributed vote, and it was only good for third place. The NDP had only 18% of the vote in the last election, and yet it was good enough for twice as many seats as the liberals and second place. So they had a much more efficient vote. I'm frankly not sure what it will take to get Ontarians

to consider the NDP as, an option if they don't want liberals or Tories. For whatever reason, most people, when they look in the mirror, see a liberal or a conservative, and they just don't see a new Democrat. And I'm not sure what buttons Maritz-Styles has to push in order to get people to make that consideration. But whatever buttons those are, she hasn't found them yet because the NDP is still in third place in the polls and has been for several straight years. Yeah, I've asked her about this as well, Ms. Stiles, because she appears to articulate what other Ontarians, at least that I hear anecdotally, from Ontarians who, you know, approach me on the

street and tell me how they're feeling. She's articulating things that they're thinking and and they're feeling and yet her message is not resonating. Like, is it a problem of the message or the messenger, Steve? You know, I wish I knew. The message seems to be consistent. with what you would expect a moderate social democratic party to advance. The messenger, I think, is solid. I mean, I think Mara Stiles, every time I read something about her, you know, she gets kudos for being a great communicator and on her game. What is it?

What is it about the NDP that one time in 159 years allowed them to win an election? I'll tell you the set of circumstances that allowed that to happen in 1990. You had a premier who had suddenly become very unpopular in David Peterson. So people were ready to throw him out, and in fact, he lost his seat in that 1990 election. But enough Ontarians also said, you know what, we just threw the Tories out five years ago, and we're really not ready to put them back in. And so their new leader, Mike Harris, was considered not quite ready for prime time. He'd only just won the PC leadership a few months before that election,

and people did know him well enough, and so he was not an option. and when the two main parties are not options and the leader of the third party looks like a reasonable individual, as Bob Ray did 36 years ago, those are the circumstances where the NDP can win. Now, so far, those circumstances have not been replicated. They almost were in 2018, right? People had made their decision that the liberals under Kathleen Wynn were not an option. they were not prepared to hand the keys to Queens Park to Doug Ford yet. And Andrea Horvath and the NDP were actually in first place in the polls for a while, right? We had that set of circumstances where both major parties were sort of not considered trustworthy, and therefore people looked at the NDP. But then they stopped looking at them.

Andrew Horthat didn't have a great leader's debate. Kathleen Wynne ironically unmasked her on an issue. that made her look weak and uncertain. But it wasn't the liberals who got the advantage of that. It was Doug Ford and the conservatives, who of course ended up winning the first of their three majority governments. So can a set of circumstances be created where both the liberals and conservatives are considered not viable options

for 60% of the electorate and therefore the NDP come up the middle? Seems to me that's their only hope. But we'll see. Well, let's see if this is also in your wheelhouse, Steve. This one's from Joe on Facebook. He says, I have a very important topic that I think really needs to be addressed properly, and it's dating in our modern world. It is getting more and more complicated and challenging,

and it's on the verge of becoming an epidemic in matter of speaking. Too many people are single and unmarried. This could be a very entertaining subject to explore in a show. Here we go. You're exploring it now. Oh, boy. Well, this is so far outside my wheelhouse. even funny. But what's his name again? Who asked the question? Joe. Joe, you've really put your

finger on what might be one of the most depressing and urgent societal issues of the last 10 years. And this is one of the extremely negative consequences of our digital society. We are so wrapped up our screens, we have in some respects lost so much of the natural ability that we should have as a species to communicate and relate to one another. And I thought this, Karen, I thought this came home to roost. I never saw a more tangible example of this than in the United Kingdom several years ago when, and I'm trying to remember the prime minister who did it, and I'm afraid I can't. This just in, they've been through seven prime ministers over the last decade, so I can't quite remember which one did it. But there was a prime minister who created a new ministry for loneliness.

And he gave an appointment to a cabinet minister responsible for making the United Kingdom a less lonely place. Now, if that isn't just one of the saddest things you've ever heard and doesn't say everything you need to know about what's wrong with so much of society today, there are there are just far too many people alone and lonely and without apparent prospects or you might even say skills

to be more sociable in hopes of finding a friend a boyfriend or girlfriend or a spouse and I certainly am not nearly qualified enough to suggest what the road forward might be other than people get off

your GD phones. It's just so toxic to interpersonal relationships. I understand as well as the next guy how intoxicating those things are. They're so fun. There's so much information to be gleaned. There's so much apparent connection and communication with other people that you can do on your phones. But at the end of the day, it's a kind of a fake connection.

It's not real. It's digital and it's not actual. And if we don't figure out a way to make interpersonal relations and relationships better, then shame on us. I'll tell you, last word on this, Karen, and that is the other day for a column I'm writing for TVO, I went out on one of the many great, great trails in the United States. in Toronto. And there are some absolutely gorgeous ravines that are literally a 10-minute walk from Young and Bloor, the busiest intersection in the country, that are just extraordinary. And part of

the reason for doing it was there is an attempt by a group called Evergreen to create something called the loop, which would, in essence, be systematically connecting all of the disparate trails in Toronto, from the Don River to the east, the Humber to the west, Lake Ontario to the south, and the Finch Corridor in the north, and make a whole circular loop of trails that people could access. And, you know, cycle, walk, walk your dog,

go for jog, you know, whatever. And one of the things I noticed when I went on just five kilometers of the potential loop, they got to raise money, they got a, you know, obviously there's a lot that would go into connecting all of these disparate trails. One of the things I noticed was how automatically interpersonal connection improved because people were not on their phones. They were relating with each other.

It's a given that when you're out walking the dog and you bump into another couple maybe who's walking the dog, you stop. The dogs relate to each other. a conversation is struck up. The group I was with just bumped into a couple from London, England, who stopped to ask us for restaurant and hotel recommendations. I mean, there's just something about being in nature off your phone that encourages you to speak, to be personal,

to make a connection. And I'll tell you what, if this group is able to get that 300 million bucks that they need over the next six years to systematically create, this loop of trails, it might be the best investment we could ever make in human connection, which is so desperately needed right now. Joe, what an interesting question. I'm so glad you got that one in because, as you can tell, this one's not in my wheelhouse at all, but what a unique opportunity we have to do something about what is clearly one of the worst crises we're dealing with today. Well, that is an incredibly poignant note to end on. There you have it. Steve Paken,

political and dating advice. God forbid. God forbid. Okay, let me just in our last 30 seconds here, do a couple of last bits of housekeeping, and then I'll get one last word from you, Karen, which is to say people may have heard some of our questions came in today on Patreon. We do have a bit of a community there.

Patreon.com forward slash the Paken podcast. If you want to flip a few bucks our way to keep this thing going, we're always grateful for your support. All of these shows, including today's Pakes, takes will be archived on stevepeakin.com. Any last words for us, Karen? No, Steve, thank you so much for having me on and go outside of nature for me on Manitoulin Island. I will definitely do that. And if you hear whether or not we're coming back in the fall with Paken on politics on breakfast

television, drop me in line and let me know because I miss the gang and it would be fun. I don't mind not getting up at 5 a.m. but it would be fun to be part of the gang again. Everyone misses you and you're still a part of the gang, always a part of the gang. Sweet of you to say. Thanks, Karen. God bless and peace and love to everybody.