The Paul Wells Show - The Panel: Poilievre's No-Pivot Pivot

Episode Date: February 14, 2025

The Conservative leader is planning a big rally in Ottawa this weekend. It follows a sustained slide in the polls. Can he change his message for a world of Donald Trump and Mark Carney? Does he even want to? Our Panel — Garry Keller, Allison Gifford, Marci Surkes — discusses all of this and more.

Hey, panel, thanks for joining me. Great to have you. Gary Keller, Alison Gifford, Marcy Cirks. I'm happy to see that everyone dressed up for sweater vest day. You're on the panel. Thanks for the sweater vest panel. Yeah I know. Man oh man we've got like three feet of snow banks at our house. There's a lot going on. I think Canada is now currently under the authority of the three separate sets of tariffs. There's a hard reset for

the conservative brand coming up on the weekend. But Alison, I find myself thinking about the NDP. Latest Nanos poll has the NDP at 16.4%. The NDP put out a memo this week warning that those dastardly liberals want an early election, which is not the way you talk when you want an early election. And so the question that comes to mind is, did the NDP, when the House parodied at the beginning of January, did the NDP as a society, as a corporation, miss a chance to switch out their own leader too? Um, I, so I think if you look at what caused the switching out of the Liberal leader and the symptoms there, which were massive caucus mutiny, tanking in the polls,

I don't think you saw the same thing with the NDP. Their caucus is pretty buttoned down in terms of drama. You know, the polling numbers in January were, I think about 18 or 19, that's not unlike any other NDP polling number going into a federal election. I even remember in 2011, Jack Layton hit 14 going into the 2011 campaign.

So I don't think that that would be enough. I also think that, just given there was the explosive drama that happened with Trudeau, but at the same time, there have been leadership campaigns to usurp Trudeau within the Liberal Party for probably two to three years that have been loud enough to have been very well known by all of us. I don't see the same thing in the NDP side.

I don't see somebody waiting to be coronated there. So I think that it would be a lot for the party to consider to do that. I think it would be bringing a lot on themselves and I don't think that they see the same evidence that was overwhelming on the liberal side to make that decision. So no, I think that they'll stick with the leader

and go through the next election and then reevaluate after that. But I think it's comparing apples and oranges. Okay. Now, between here and the next election, there is either a choice by a new liberal prime minister to go straight to an election and not meet the House, or there is a decision by opposition parties.

Do they defeat the government? Do you think the NDP is ready to bring this government down? I think both the liberals or both Mark Carney and the NDP have been abundantly clear through leaked memos this week that they will do whatever is most politically advantageous at the time. And so that's kind of politics. And given the current circumstances, I think everybody does need to afford themselves room to maneuver. That said, I don't know how long anyone wants to prop up an unelected leader who doesn't have a seat for a long period of time, because that's going to get very tired for voters. I think they are going to have to take it to Canadians sooner than later.

But this is a very strange time. And I think both have said that they're leaving doors open to recall Parliament if necessary and to seek a broader mandate. But I don't think that that can continue for very long, if that makes sense. I mean, I've been pretty tough on Carney Carney but I did like it this week when he said I don't have to make that decision yet so I haven't made it. It's a nice break from all these other people who are trying to sound like the voice of doom all the time

which brings us to the conservatives. Hey Gary where are you going to be tomorrow? Oh you're not going to be yet this thing. I'm not going to be there. Some. Otherwise, I wouldn't have been there because I actually was at the last Poli-Ev rally he held in Ottawa about a year ago. And I went to see the type of crowd because, you know, I've been in Ottawa for over 25 years. I know an Ottawa conservative crowd is astroturfed with the regular folks to fill a room. And that room was not filled with the usual conservative supporters.

It was a real different mix of supporters. And it was really fascinating to see that. So unfortunately, I won't be there, but I will be listening and talking to the people who I know will be there and will definitely have news to share definitely. Gary's joining us from beautiful metropolitan, Pawasin, if I'm not mistaken. What does Poly-Ev have to get done tomorrow?

Is this just another Saturday? Is this, is just this, the 20th rally out of the last 20 or does he have some, uh, business to take care of? Yeah. Well, before we get to tomorrow, there's today, the conservative party is having a caucus meeting today and And, you know, Conservative caucus meetings, I don't know about other parties, I've never sat in other parties caucus meetings. I have heard that, you know, Liberal caucus meetings in order to get on the agenda, you have to apply to the whip and maybe two weeks in advance before you're granted. Conservative caucus

meetings don't run that way. Conservative caucus meetings are a bit of a free-for-all when it's open mic and 50 people rush to the mics to have their voices known. It would be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in there today to hear what conservative caucus members are saying based on what they're hearing on their doorsteps in their constituencies. They've been there since, you know, since December and especially with Donald Trump. So he's got to take care of some internal business today and we'll see what comes out of that. I'm sure there'll be lots of media reporters hanging around Westblock to try to garner some information out of that. But then tomorrow, you know, I've been told that this rally has been planned for some time and just the logistics of the rally itself,

plus the fact I expect they're going to use this rally for several purposes, one for election ads. If you remember in 2011, Stephen Harper held this big rally in Ottawa. It was almost a Canada first message in that rally, but all the clips in the video from that were used for the election campaign. So there's that housekeeping, but the broader housekeeping really is to

not pivot the message. I am told very clearly that there is not a pivot coming on his message, but it's a little different shift in the tone in the sense that everything he's been talking about so far, tax attacks, build the homes, stop the crime, bring it home. All those messages will be wrapped around a Canada First message. We're doing these things because we're putting Canada first. And the other folks, their track record, their policy track record, hasn't been putting Canada first.

We'll be all the judge of whether it's not a successful message, but that is what he is trying to do. It's maybe a pivot, not a pivot, but I'm told explicitly, this is definitely not a pivot by the Conservatives. It's just wrapping that message around a Canada First message. So you're going to see a lot of flags. It's Flag Day tomorrow. You're going to see a lot of that type of imagery,

but expect to hear some of the same messaging. And some of the policy announcements he's made to date, the Arctic policy the other day, is designed to fit within that Canada first messaging. Alison and Marcy, whoever wants to take this one, how worried should Polio be and how effective do you think he's been in adjusting to this very new reality where Donald Trump is being Donald Trump and the country seems to have elected Mark Carney as the next liberal leader already.

I'll go in first and Alison, if you wanna pick up, please do. I'll say only this. I do think tomorrow is a really important moment for the conservatives. It's the political story of the weekend and leading into next week for the exact reasons Gary outlined and because Mr. Poliev has actually not been, he hasn't been terribly effective in the last number of weeks. That's my opinion but I really

don't think he's been very present. He's not presenting as a Prime Minister and waiting. I think he tried to on his northern swing earlier this week. He looked a little bit more Prime Ministerial. And quite frankly, at this point, the thirst from Canadians is for somebody who can control the situation to the extent

possible in the face of what we are dealing with with the American threats. Canadians are looking for someone to be in charge, large and in charge. And I'm not sure that an opposition leader who has a lot of experience in this country, I think, with the American threats. Canadians are looking for someone to be in charge,

large and in charge. And I'm not sure that an opposition leader who has spent really the last few years, and I heard Gary say, you know, the message track isn't really going to change. I think it is going to change a little. I think they're moving from Canada is broken to some of the policy sets were broken.

I think they're tampering the direct hits on this country that they were leveling, that Mr. Poliev was leveling quite quite liberally, smaller liberal, liberally in the past to present a message that appears more coherent and more focused on national unity and the country's best interests. But that has not been his track and it is, it may not be a pivot so to speak, but it's a change. It's a shift of sorts. And Canadians are going to be watching to see if he looks like a leader.

Canadians are not looking for an opposition leader right now. They are looking for a prime minister. Okay. In the middle of all of this, Steven Harper shows up, which is not something that happens a lot. Gary, did you follow his remarks at the launch for his new book on Canadian flags, where he essentially said,

we will fight Donald Trump to the last body, man that boats unleash the hounds, Canada should accept any sacrifice to show this guy what for. It was a reminder of a gear that Harper had in him that maybe not everyone else does have. Do you think there was some motive behind it? And do you think he'd have said that if he was still prime minister? An interesting question, Paul. I happen to be there. He was launching his new book called Flags of Canada. He's a self-professed flag geek. And given that it's Flag Day tomorrow, it was actually interesting hearing some of the debates

on how we got to the flag as it is today. Marjorie Libreton was also there, by the way. And she lived through it. She used to work for Mr. Dieffenbaker back in the day. So that aside, it was a fascinating moment. But it wasn't actually part of his prepared remarks. It was in response to a question from somebody in the audience talking about the threat of tariffs and, you know, what would you kind of do if you were prime minister? And it was a full throated defense of Canadian pride, Canadian nationalism. The response in the crowd was visceral. People gave him a standing ovation. And it was a very, I think, emotive moment in that room,

given the threat that we're facing. Now, I'd like to think that Mr. Harper, if he was still leader, would have given that kind of comment. But it's also what he was saying in that remark, there was a little bit of a backhanded slide at the liberals was basically, I would do this action to preserve Canadian sovereignty, to stop annexation, but I would have a plan in place to get us through this, to rebuild our economy as soon as possible. And what he

wasn't saying but was saying was that, and the current through have no idea how to do that. So that was sort of the unstated part of the conversation. But yeah, it was well received. And, you know, we'll see if Mr. Poliev adopts some of that rhetoric in uh, in the, either tomorrow or in the coming days. Um, Alison, it's, it's a weird moment where the country seems to be ahead of the politicians a little bit. I mean, um, Donald Trump is threatening all of these, uh, all of these tariffs. I've got friends who are passing around product lists of Canadian substitutes for popular American brands announcing that they've cancelled travel to the United States. And it does feel like nobody has really captured that mood

among our elected leaders. And they've got a lot to think about. They've got to worry about what's prudent rather than just what feels good. But I mean, do you feel the same sort of thing? I'm just feeling that there's a tone missing from the discourse. Yes and no. I mean, our economy is so intertwined with the US economy and I guess it's really easy for Harper to say that. It reminds me of when Doug Ford said, we're going to cut off all the energy. And I mean, sometimes from a negotiating perspective, maybe it's good to have the hubris

from outside of the prime minister, but in reality, you know, we can't just change course. Instantly, we might be a branch plant country, but that's what we are. And a lot of those integrations mean Canadian jobs. So, you know, you can pass around the list, but there are certain things on those lists that if you boycotted Coke operations, for example,

that's, you know, probably tens of thousands of jobs. So I just, I wouldn't be that simplistic about it. It's been a relationship that's several years in the economic making and you can't untangle it. I think the other thing is that Donald Trump is the king of shock and awe and flooding the zone, but we have been through this before and there is much more patient diplomacy

that needs to happen to preserve long-term economic interests for our country as well. So, but I do agree on the point that Mr. Harper made secondly about reorienting our economy and the focus on industrial policy. And I'm sure there's no place in the next election campaign to talk about industrial policy. But we do need to consider how we keep our IP in the country, how we keep our supply chains in the country, how we get critical minerals out of the ground and how we get our house in order a little bit better to be better insulated in the future.

Yeah, I just wanna pick up on that. Alison's point, maybe. Sorry, I was just gonna say, I was just gonna say, you know, let's hope that we don't have a Kim Campbell moment in the next election where, you know, this is not the time to talk about policy, but absolutely this coming election is really a time to talk about policy

and the different options that the parties are offering. Sorry, Marcy. Not at all. I was going to say something similar but one of the things that's actually been really fascinating in the last number of weeks to watch play out, Paul, where I do actually think leaders are capturing the moment, I watched with great interest Minister Annan speaking in Halifax, I think it was, last week and she said that inter-provincial trade barriers could be eliminated, not reduced, eliminated in 30 days. Now we'll see if that's actually feasible. That's a hell of a heavy lift for an issue set that's been at the top of the agenda for

the Council of the Federation and for the Federation for 30 years to say that it can be all but done in a month with political will. But let's assume that even if it's not 30 days, that it is a tighter timeframe, that this actually could be accomplished, that we could look across the jurisdictions of this country and say we are stronger, united,

and we have to shift how we do business. That in and of itself would be a monumental change in terms of how we could actually then conceive of industrial policy and finding markets abroad. So I actually think some of that sentiment is being captured. It's not in the grassroots sense, but some of these big policy shifts that people are now vocalizing would be hugely advantageous to Canada at this time if the political will truly exists. So Marcy, this all just sounds like just a hell of a lot of work for the Prime Minister of Canada,

by whom of course I mean Mark Carney. Lord knows I haven't been out there campaigning for the guy, but we're at the point, I think, in the liberal race where the question arises. Should everyone just down tools and admit that this guy is going to be the next liberal leader? And then the question that comes to mind is, is that in his interest or does he need cover for a while yet? I actually think it is in everyone's best interest, and not only liberals, but actually the broader electorate, to allow for this process to unfold in the timeframe that it will.

And I mean that not only because it gets covered, but actually because as we've said on this program and elsewhere, Mark Carney remains a very untested commodity in terms of his political chops. And at minimum, having him face debates in both official languages is an important moment. To me, that's actually the last important thing to give in this campaign.

Clearly, he's playing a leaders campaign. He's not putting out a ton of policy at the moment. His opponents are putting out policy and that's also good for debate and ideas because that is the point of leadership. It is an opportunity for renewal within the party. Carney has been keeping his powder dry, but again, it's those debates that are going to matter. I would certainly like to see him out more in public, speaking more to the media so that we can get more of an appreciation of where he's going but I completely

understand the safe game but the debates are what's left to watch and they are important and so to that end Paul I think it's really it's really critical for all of us as as voters regardless of what party we find ourselves in to have a better appreciation of what is on offer for for the big chair in the next election. Does anybody want to rebut that point or pile on and say it more? Because when I say it, a lot of my readers say I'm being mean to them. Yeah, sure. I mean, look, Marcy is absolutely right. The guy needs to be tested in some way, shape or form. And the best way to test somebody is through debate. I mean, we all remember the liberal leadership campaign with Stefan Dion and Michael Ignatius.

And, you know, Stefan, we didn't get it done. And, you know, Dion sputtered his way through that, that whole debate. And it became sort of a defining moment of how Dion sort of reacted to things on that front. But like, you know, Carney is out the other day and he's talking about in a tweet about how we need to catalyze the economy and we need, it's the time to build. What does that mean? That's just, you know, Carney says that Polly is full of slogans and he wants to catalyze the economy and at times, but that's meaningless. It's one thing to put it out in a tweet and on a stump speech in front of 200 people in Regina.

It's another thing when you're doing it in a debate with Krista Freeland, who, whether you like her or don't like her, I mean, she's been in the House of Commons for over 10 years and has done the cut and thrust of debate, whether it's in a question period or you name it. Like, it's going to be an interesting moment, I think. Does the debate offer Freeland or Karina Gould or what's his name, the billionaire from the West Island? Does Frank Bayless, does it give any of these people a chance to catch up? Is this Ruby Dallas moment is what I'm saying.

I'll be very quick on this. I think both, I actually think both Freeland and Gould are very strong debaters, and they will be viewed in a positive light coming out of the debate, whatever the end result is. So I do think it gives opportunity, but again, the key here is for the presumptive front runner to demonstrate that he has the chops to turn around into a general and debate the other leaders. Okay. Well, I think we'll wrap it up there. We're all looking forward to seeing what Mr. Polly, what kind of a rabbit he can pull out of his hat this weekend. And we'll talk again shortly. Thanks for joining me.

Great, we'll see you as always. Thank you. Music