The Pete Quiñones Show - Episode 1107: A Realistic Discussion on Building Patronage Networks w/ Sean Wieland and Stormy Waters
Episode Date: September 15, 2024121 MinutesPG-13Sean Wieland is a wealth mangement expert and Stormy Waters is a managing partner of a venture capital firm.Sean and Stormy join Pete to talk about the real world issues of building pa...tronage networks in a world hostile to us.Sean's Twitter AccountStormy's Twitter AccountPete and Thomas777 'At the Movies'Support Pete on His WebsitePete's PatreonPete's Substack Pete's SubscribestarPete's GUMROADPete's VenmoPete's Buy Me a CoffeePete on FacebookPete on TwitterBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-pete-quinones-show--6071361/support.
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I can't actually believe it that Starlink has zero internet problems,
and land-based internet is the one that's actually causing the issues.
Let's see, I'm on Starlink right now.
There is a storm moving in.
Same.
And let me check my speed right now.
Because I already have cloud cover.
We haven't had any sun all day today.
I've had like maybe two or three hours based out in like, you know, 15, 20 minutes, like increments of like intense sun.
And then just, you know, no rain.
And now we have no rain and crazy like that really all.
lightning that goes through the clouds but never comes down.
Yeah, so it's interesting.
The summers have been very different than they normally are.
The past three or four years, we've got like progressively weirder, but like you live in
yourself all right?
Oh, yeah.
All throughout the summer, every single day in the afternoon, it rains, you know, monsoon
intense for a period of about, you know, 20, 30 minutes and that's it stuff.
Yep.
We haven't had rain all summer.
Really?
Yeah. Like maybe, I'm thinking like maybe eight days in three months.
And when it does come, like, you know, you probably heard some of the, the stories out of
like Fort Lauderdale, like the massive flooding and stuff. It just, it monsoons for like two days.
days. So I don't know whether the jet stream has shifted or what, but it's very unusual.
When I used to live in, when I used to live in Hollywood and I lived about a half mile off the beach,
and there was like a week every year in July where it would just rain all week. I mean,
it would, and it would just pour for seven days in a row. And, you know, that's what I got used to.
like we have that
that exists
it just we don't have a midday rain anymore
and it's fucking weird
yeah my
I mean my Starlink isn't as fast
as it normally is but it's way
it's
it's five times as fast as I need for
live streaming so
yeah and I need more power for live streaming
than just recording like this
so I should be fine
that's
that amazes me a lot more than like
most people
because most people
like never thought of satellite internet
in that way until
Starlink came around
but like being
in tech like I've watched
three or four of these
just absolute failures
and the fact that Elon Musk was able to knock it out
first shot into a usable product
right like
first off like anything in hardware
is a nightmare right this is a nightmare
right this is
this is actually why
you know how Peter Thiel is always talking about
why we don't like
hey we were promised flying cars and shit
why don't we have them instead
we have you know just software
funds and tons of software and people
try and argue with me about
like oh no tech has been
advancing like crazy like how can you say
that I get a lot of heat for it
especially doing what I do
right because what I'm basically saying
is my industry's
bullshit. And what it'll eventually come down to is I'll say, okay, well, let's say if we got rid of
your, you know, your flat screens at home and your laptop and maybe like the little
whatever touchscreen thing in your car and your cell phone, what exists in your life to convince
you that you're not in 1970? And the answer is nothing. Well, I mean, technologically, yeah, the
culture, the culture, it would be the big difference.
Yeah, okay.
Yeah.
But like in your house, like, how do you, if I got rid of all your screens, like, are you in the
70s, the 60s?
Yeah.
Everything exists online.
And it's because of risk.
I fought against getting a smart TV for like the longest, longest, longest time.
And I probably.
might not even have one now, but it came with the house.
And it's just like my, my monitor is a 40-inch smart TV, but I mean, I have everything
disconnected from it. I don't, it's not connected to the, to the internet and everything.
So, yeah, it's just, all it is is just a monitor.
I actually use, I have a 42-inch monitor. Like, I think anybody with, like, the multiple
screen set up is just causing themselves unnecessary screen. But, um,
the only good thing for the multi-screen monitor is like for live streaming if you're
live streaming to different platforms to be able to have each platform open so that you can like
read comments in real time there's no what I do is you know I have to open them I have to
switch tabs and things like that but you know when you're if you have multiple that's the
only reason I could think about it think that is I mean there's what that or maybe
trading.
Yeah.
Oh, yeah, yeah, definitely.
But the reason
why Starlink made me think about that
is because the reason
why we have so much just
innovation in software is because
we watched the Defense Department take a big
old step backwards.
And private capital was
supposed to kind of fill in the gap.
VC exploded at the same
time as like you said Star Wars
was winding down.
And Star Wars brought us things like the internet.
Star Wars brought us, well, the satellite internet as well.
All the cool hardware stuff that we have.
And all VC got us was software, right?
So like if, you know, the internet went away, a majority of our technology wouldn't really exist
because it would exist only on our machine.
And maybe, I guess it would exist on multiple machines
if we all got together and had a land party.
But from an investment standpoint, right, software is much, much easier to invest in
because, all right, let's say, like, you get halfway,
you're two years into the project, a year in the project,
and you find out, like, fuck, we did this wrong.
We have to go back to, like, we have to go back a year and re-engineer.
I got to go back to where we were a year ago and then re-engineer from there
into this new direction because of this problem that we found.
With software, that's not going to cost me any additional money than I was going to already lay out.
Just, you know, that money is being spent backtracking a little bit and coding in a different, you know, a different tree than, you know, I was on already.
But with hardware, like, let's say,
the company has got like 40 million sunk into it and you have to change the product right something
doesn't work there is a very good chance that you are going to burn another 40 million to fix it
right because there is no quick fix there because like a coder is going to be sitting there in
front of his computer screen coding whether he's coding this other thing that he was supposed to be
building that you have to change directions on or whether he's coding you know the new thing it's the
same guy earning the same salary in front of the same computer right but with hardware
we're talking about like suppliers need to retool engineering shops need to prototype you know
what the new you know modification like it can cost it can burn basically you know all of the money
that you have up to that point is just wasted.
And there's a very high likelihood of that.
So from a VC standpoint, like, all right, I have a hardware play and I have a software
play.
Both of them could have huge returns.
They could be, you know, I could have two unicorns.
I could have a Starlink and I could have a Google.
I am going to choose the Google every single time because of that risk.
So, Stormy, this is something, this is a great way to get into this.
So I've been thinking of it in terms of the resource curse or Dutch disease.
I was very interested to discover that J.D. Vance has been looking at this as well, that basically dollar in Germany.
My industry have.
Oh, sorry, go ahead.
I said a lot of guys in my industry have.
Okay.
Yeah, because that seems to be the issue.
And this is very similar to – so the problem I've raised is, especially publicly traded securities, is basically that
asset bubbles crowd out CAPEX, which is what you're describing because everybody just wants that
quick shot in the arm of getting their, you know, stock line go up. They're not willing to take
the long-term, you know, low time preference, slow growth to do real R and get real growth. And
basically, we've run out of quick fixes, which is also a marks pit-saint-point in Dow of Capital.
you can see this in pharmaceuticals more than anywhere else.
Yeah, blockbuster drugs ended in like the 80s.
Yep, exactly.
All the low-hanging fruit is already picked.
I was explaining this to Dark Enlightenment the other day.
One of the smart skies, I think I've talked to in a very long time.
And we were talking about, like, he was like, I had like kind of like a roadmap,
or not like a roadmap, but like some bullet points that if Trump were to be,
be able to do, we could dodge a lot of what's coming our way.
Because I 100% agree with you as far as liquidity crisis, except for I see them compartmentalized.
I mean, we can hammer that out.
Right.
So from a regulatory standpoint, everyone thinks like, oh, you know, just changing corporate tax law is just, you know, like, basically that is only going to lead to like GDP increase.
because if we lower their taxes by 10%, that just means they're going to make 10% more money,
and then the stock's going to go out 10% or whatever it is, generally linear thinking, right?
Not orthogonal.
And the answer to that is actually orthogonal.
It goes completely perpendicular, right?
The reason why big corporations, publicly traded ones is a big difference, I'm sure, as you know Sean.
The reason they do what they do is largely because a tax person,
policy, right?
Tax policy or environmental regulation, right?
And so let's say I have, like what the US has,
rather persecutory corporate tax structures, right?
For me, if I end the year with any money,
that's money you get to tax, right?
So if I spend that money in R&D, that takes a while, right?
So like, you know, a,
roadmap style approach. Like we're going to hit several milestones of capital outlaying.
And a good chunk of that R&D money is going to be spent next fiscal year.
Well, fuck, that means I get text on that money. And then I'll have less money to spend on R&D.
But I can, if I don't spend money in R&D, like Moderna is not doing now and paying the
stock price, honestly, that company should go to zero. It has been a very painful short for me.
the last two years have sucked.
But that company is eventually going to go to zero.
But they reduced their R&D budget and the stock got hammered immediately.
And the reason for that is you can relatively assume like,
fuck, well, if you're not spending money in your company, you know,
trying to invent new shit,
then I can pretty much assume that your numbers now are going to be your numbers in the future.
And if your numbers suck now, well, then, you know,
it's going to suck in the future, but just suck more.
Right.
So I'm going to get the fuck out of this.
that stock and go buy somebody that is that. So what they do instead is they do stock buybacks.
I was just about to say. Yeah. Stock buybacks are a short-term bribe to for investors like please
don't leave. Please please please don't leave. I know we can't come up with new shit, but that's
because we really can't end the fiscal year with any money on our balance sheet or the IRS comes and
fucks us in the ass. So we're kind of you're putting CEOs. You're forcing CEOs to do you're forcing CEOs to
do very short-term thinking. And I think CEOs get a lot of shit because they're systems thinkers.
You don't get to be a CEO. Your brain isn't built for it unless you are one. And these are the
type of guys that generally have the dynamism to where they would like to build shit if you would
let them. And because the regulatory regime, you're forcing these guys to think one quarter at a time.
So you don't think it's the principal agent problem? I've been.
looking at it more that, you know,
or kind of like selectric theory,
that they have to defend the position
from the board? It's not a binary.
It's a spectrum. Okay.
There's guys like, let's say, Jamie Diamond.
Right. Jamie Diamond
is the CEO and chairman because
he owns that many shares, right?
He worked. He literally took all the dollars
that he's ever made on Wall Street and sunk them into
J.P. Morgan, J. Stock.
That company is as much a part
of his... See, Sean,
you probably have run into this a little bit,
I don't know if you're dealing with family offices or whatever.
But rich people don't talk about money.
Ready for huge savings?
We'll mark your calendars from November 28 to 30th
because the Liddle Newbridge Warehouse Sale is back.
We're talking thousands of your favorite Liddle items
all reduced to clear.
From home essentials to seasonal must-habs.
When the doors open, the deals go fast.
Come see for yourself.
The Liddle New Bridge Warehouse Sale,
28th to 30th of November.
Little more to value
You catch them in the corner of your eye
Distinctive by design
They move you
Even before you drive
The new Cooper plugin hybrid range
For Mentor, Leon and Terramar
Now with flexible PCP finance and trade-in boosters
Of up to 2000 euro
Search Coopera and discover our latest offers
Coopera
Design that moves
finance provided by way of higher purchase agreement from Volkswagen Financial Services
Ireland Limited subject to lending criteria terms and conditions apply
Volkswagen Financial Services Ireland Limited trading as Cooper Financial Services is regulated
by the central bank of Ireland yeah I've got a whole deep dive on Thorstein
Vveland and kind of the issue with the leisure class and this is also I think why
they're because they're more focused on status than money it often means that they're not
They're not focused on creating resources.
There's kind of this pervasive myth that we're in like a post-scarcity society.
And because reputation or fame is a zero-sum game, whereas wealth is a grow-of-the-pie game,
you know, once they've hit that satiation level of money or resources,
now they want to get cutthroat in the zero-sum game of reputation and social status.
Well, like, so there you have all, like, Jimmy Diamond already has a social status.
in the world. He's all the money in the world. But his identity, and this Elon Musk is very similar.
And I want to draw a distinction between CEOs that are board employees and CEOs that are CEOs
because they are also the chairman. You see a very distinct difference in how these type of men act.
Right. So like in Elon Musk, he's CEO of Tesla because he owns that many shares. All right. His is
skin is very much in the game and his identity right Elon if Tesla goes to shit
right if Tesla goes to zero that means Elon Musk has gone to zero right I mean he's
founder or co-founder right so he has that that identity of you know this is his
baby as opposed to coming in as a manager where it's a temporary gig you know like a
nomenclature where I'm gonna abuse the office that I have because I know I'm only
going to be here for 10 years and then I'm out and getting my
golden parachute. So they don't really care about the long term of that business. It's just,
you know, a vehicle for them. So you could you could summarize this between internal and
external CEO promotion. Right. So like if you've worked your ass off to get like your whole life
and now you're in the C suite or like just next to C suite, if I promote you to CEO, then you have
a tremendous amount of skin in the game because not everybody's going to be able to do what Jamie
Diamond did or Elon Moss did. Elon Moss bought Tesla and was very young. It was like,
like a series D.
So that means it had, you know,
five funding grounds,
plus, you know,
including the seed,
and was just starting to get a product out the door,
right?
I think they maybe shipped,
you know,
50, 60 cars the time you bought it.
And he transformed it.
But the reason he probably did so
was because that was really all his money
at the time that he bought it.
He didn't have any other choice,
but to make that work.
And if we,
if CEOs were promoted internally,
right, from guys that worked their way up to it,
I think it would solve some of that
because the parachute CEO
is the CEO you're describing, right?
This is a professional CEO.
That guy's a faggot.
Yep.
Yeah, well, I mean, that's the whole managerial revolution thing
is that, you know, they take over institutions
but just temporarily.
Yeah, 100%.
They're very short-term players.
but if you think about who are the real who are the CEOs you think of like so who are like
because back in the before CEO is a modern term a relic of the manager revolution I guess you said
before that they were tycoons right you know Elon Musk has probably got about as much money as
you know Andrew Carnegie and there's some other guys like Soros that he's got a fuck ton of money
but they act completely differently.
So I find that these owner CEOs are the great man types,
are the tycoon types, and the professional CEOs.
Like, personally, I do not believe that somebody should be allowed to be a CEO
unless they own enough stock.
Right.
If you own enough stock for your chairman of the board, right?
You get to be CEO.
You don't get to pick somebody else that you can hire and fire,
because then you're just going to be disinterested.
You're only going to show up when there's a fucking problem.
But anyways, we're getting top track.
Well, so I think this is why, you know, Elon took Twitter, or now X, private through a leverage buyout.
I mean, I think that's the life raptor or the, you know, the escape for a lot of these publicly traded companies is before they go illiquid, it's going to take that kind of, you know, that kind of mentality or that kind of person.
to have that private stake in the game where it's, you know, it's equivalent to their identity,
as you're saying, basically.
Yeah.
And I see we're going into a place where I think corporate debt is going to.
So I think publicly traded companies will continue, unfortunately.
I would prefer they all die just after I've gotten liquidity first.
After I've sold my being in public shares of things, I hope they die.
Because I think they're a disaster.
And every one of these tycoons has thought the exact same thing.
Like, I don't know, Pete, I can't remember if you did you do something on Henry Ford?
I've never done a deep dive on Henry Ford for, you know, obvious reasons of wanting, wanting to do that carefully.
Yeah.
Maybe it was the myth of the 20th century guys.
And I didn't know this.
They definitely did Henry Ford, yeah.
Yeah, I didn't know this.
I knew about it for J.P. Morgan, and I knew about it for both Rockefeller and Carnegie,
but I didn't know Ford was the same thing, right?
So Ford put in his will and literally came back to the company at 90-something years old
when he found out that, you know, people in his absence were trying to take the company public.
like he would have burned every single factory to the ground and he said so on numerous occasions
right before that company was taken public and that's why they only got to do it after he died
because it allows you know this is why i think the difference between private and public capital
is such a big distinction and why you see private equity on one side of the dividing line
and public capital on the other side,
except in the term of like CEOs that are also chairmen.
So like David Solomon, J.P. Morgan, right?
Those are the only guys really from Wall Street that are really pushing back against what's trying to be implemented.
The rest of them are all from the private equity side because their capital is being deployed for decades at a time.
right if I'm investing a bunch of money inside the United States then I need to say well
fuck I guess this place can't go to shit now can it because my money is stuck here right my
money is stuck in these companies and I can't just go sell it like you know any any one of these
you know finance any one of these hedge fund types right those those you know buy a stock sell
it the next day right it's a quant fund right or high frequency fund
They'll sell and buy the same stock thousands of times in a minute.
Like they have zero attachment to that company.
To them it's literally just an abstract number.
And they have no long-term commitment to the company and the place that the company operates.
The company may have like attachment to the town of where it derives its labor force from.
But the guy who, you know, by a perversion of our society gets to vote on what that company does,
he doesn't give a fuck about it.
So that's also something I've been thinking about
in terms of the focus
on market cap
as opposed to cash flow.
A gentleman
I talked to once gave a great example
of Mr. Darcy
in
what's that famous
novel. But wealth used to be measured in terms of how much like
as a landed gentleman
it generated in a year.
There was no market for
you know, real estate in the, you know, 17th century or whatever it was. You know, these depths of
market is a new phenomenon to make that be the measure of the value of a company. And I think that's
going to be one of the, and to your point, that's the benefit of an illiquid asset where you have to
have a 10-year or longer time horizon is now you actually have to be focused on profits as
opposed to just, you know, how can we juice up the earnings per share, not by increasing earnings,
but by reducing the number of outstanding shares.
So running through what you think a patronage network would look like.
Okay.
So because CAPEX is risky and it's long term, how this has historically been done, you know, Imperial Japan is actually very interesting in this regard.
Germany, you know, for the last century has been interesting this way as well.
Frederick List economies.
Yeah, you need banking support where they're willing to make those kinds of long-term loans
that they're going to stick it out.
That's really the key that we don't have.
So patronage for our guys, you know, we've got that talent.
You know, we've got a huge, a glut of weaponized autists who, if somebody could just figure out how to get them
income in order to afford a home, get married, start families, you know, they would put in the
eight-hour work weeks. But that's not what's rewarded when just trying to, you know, IPO or
gin up the outstanding share price is focused basically on short-term gains through marketing
as opposed to that R&D, which is risky. And to your point, it's opportunity cost, right?
This Richard Werner is very good on this as well. Anytime you
create an additional line of credit or create more money in the economy.
It's going to go to one to three places.
It's going to go into an asset bubble.
It's going to go into CAPEX or it's going to go into consumption.
When it goes into consumption, that's a very obvious problem.
You get the inflation like we've been seeing the past few years.
The price of everything goes up because there's just more money chasing
basically the same number of goods.
Going into CAPEX is ideal, especially because then the increased
efficiency from that improved capital structure is going to offset
that inflation with deflation and balance out, which is what real growth in an economy would be.
But that entails entrepreneurial risk. You have a longer on time horizon. There's just a lot more
unknowns with that. So what tends to get favored is investing in an asset bubble. It's the,
you know, you're dealing with bigger companies. You can write bigger checks. The results are
basically instantaneous and they're basically guaranteed, whether you're investing in stock or
real estate. The same thing as inflation in consumption goes.
except because it's in an asset bubble, well, you see that hit right away.
And you don't have to be any kind of like creative or confidence to do that.
You know, it's all just, you know, spreadsheets and, you know, fictional goods.
Yeah, you're literally right.
There's not a single hedge fund manager in the history of the industry that has beaten
in the S&P 500 for more than 15 years.
Well, and even the Fed came out with the paper recently that basically all stock market growth has been because of
of the great moderation.
Basically, it's just because the government is issuing a bunch of treasuries,
getting the, you know, the, was it 13 banks or whatever that are obligated
through open market operations to buy them?
And then that credit goes immediately into S&P 500,
especially now that index funds are more than 50% of the market.
You basically, you know,
a portion of it.
That's because you're on the index.
Yeah, a portion of it does, right?
Those treasuries go out there.
to be levered up.
Right.
So this is my theory on COVID.
Let me know what you think.
What happened in August of 2019?
Yeah, it's an overnight repo rate spike,
which is very interesting that that came out right afterwards.
Yes, exactly.
So if you had a repo, and I've been kind of bad in this around, like, with friends.
So this is the first time anybody's heard it publicly.
So I think
that Tom Luongo is right
about his zero-dota thesis
so much so I dug very deeply into its origins
which he did.
Ready for huge savings
will mark your calendars from November 28th to 30th
because the Liddle Newbridge Warehouse Sale is back.
We're talking thousands of your favorite Liddle items
all reduced to clear.
From home essentials to seasonal must-habs
When the doors open, the deals go fast.
Come see for yourself.
The Lidl Newbridge Warehouse Sale, 28th to 30th of November.
Lidl, more to value.
You catch them in the corner of your eye.
Distinctive, by design.
They move you, even before you drive.
The new Cooper plugin hybrid range.
For Mentor, Leon and Terramar.
Now with flexible PCP finance and trade-in boosters of up to 2,000 euro.
search Cooper and discover our latest offers.
Coopera, design that moves.
Finance provided by way of higher purchase agreement from Volkswagen Financial Services
Ireland Limited.
Subject to lending criteria.
Terms and conditions apply.
Volkswagen Financial Services Ireland Limited.
Trading as Cooper Financial Services is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.
Describes how it exists now, right?
And I went and dug up how it came to be.
because I've had conversations
like
I'll be the side
Pete
sat in on
one of a
a series of conference calls I host
right
all we take turns hosting
right
and one of those
actually one of the
one of the two women
that were on the call
she was
a former Fed governor
and she was on the
live work
committee. This woman is probably in her 70s. And, you know, this woman should know more about
global capital markets than anyone in the world. And I asked her one day and I said,
X, Y, Z, it's true that nine out of every $10 is, is printed by offshore banks.
Yeah, the correspondence. Yes, yes it is. And I was like, okay.
And all those offshore dollars, they're indexed to LIBOR, right?
And she goes, yeah, of course, of course they are.
What else would they be indexed on?
And I was like, okay.
So the Fed doesn't control the dollar.
And she's like, no, no, of course not.
Like, what do you mean?
Like, that's not the case.
I'm like, okay, well, if nine-tenths of the dollars are printed offshore by overseas,
banks and those dollar denominated debts are indexed to a interest rate that is set by 20 banks
in London not a one of them being a US bank then that means the Fed only has control over 10% of that
so if I own 90% of your company right I own 90% of the shares and I can vote those
those shares, then that makes that my company, not your company.
And this woman was fucking speechless.
Right?
She literally is like, I have to come back to you.
I have to think about that.
I'm thinking myself, I'm like, bitch, you do the, like,
did it lose your job?
Right?
But you were in charge of a fucking portion of a goddamn global economy.
And this never occurred to you.
And it bothered me and it bothered me and it bothered me and it bothered me.
And I just run into this again and again and again.
One of a similar type conversation with a famous economist.
And this guy couldn't understand.
He's like, I couldn't even, this is an economist that Goldman Sachs contracts, right?
Often.
This guy goes on like speaking tours, investment banks, stop what they're doing.
And everybody gets out of class for an afternoon to go listen to this fucking asshole speak.
and I asked him like, well, what happens if there is a sovereign debt default in a G7 country?
And he looked at me and he was wearing the face and said, I don't, I don't even know where that would fit into my worldview.
Like I wouldn't even know how to model that.
Like I don't even, I don't even know where to start with that.
I'm like, really?
Really?
Like you're a fucking global economist and you can't, you know, at least hypothesize, right?
like fucking just spitball what a sovereign debt default would be like in one of these like
who are you people and i've just run into it again and again and again and again and the only
conclusion that i can come to is that all of the people that set up this infrastructure right
the plumbing like if i bought your house right and you built it yourself and you know you moved
to some foreign country, some faraway country, and I can't get a hold of you.
And I have a plumbing leak.
I'm going to have to fucking tear that house down to the studs, because I don't know
where the pipes are.
Yeah.
I put that in the movie Cube of, you know, there is no master plan.
It's a headless blunder operating under the illusion of a master plan.
You know, I think they inherited this thing.
They don't know how it works.
and they're just trying to keep it going and keep it from exploding.
Well, yeah, because they don't know.
And that means they don't know how to stop it from exploding.
So, like, if everybody that set up the current, you know, we'll call it the Euro dollar system,
everyone that put that into place, all of the boomers that are in charge of shit that won't retire, right?
What these guys came into whatever firm that they're at, right, in the 80s, the mid-80s.
That's like when they, you know, just got on the trading floor or whatever.
That means everybody, all the men that set up the Brentonwood system were not only retired, but we're dead.
By the time any of the people currently in charge got anywhere near the steering wheel.
So none of these fucking people, I would say more knowledge of how the global financial system actually works exists in our spheres, then does the institutions, then does the elites.
So, Tom Luongo is effectively correct, right?
This euro dollar system, this nine-tenths of all these offshore dollars, they're going to blow up, right?
They are hypothesated dollars.
And I don't know how familiar you are with his thesis, but I use JP Morgan private banking,
and I got a letter in December of 2023.
Or was it in 2020 or 22, I remember it was December, it was right four years.
And it said, you cannot deposit any LIBOR denominated securities.
Like, you're not allowed, right?
A, we won't allow you, right?
And then I got another letter, like a week later, that said, if you have any LIBOR denominated securities,
you must sell them by January.
And I don't get, like, there's not a type of, you know, bank that tells you, you have to must do anything.
They're generally very nice and cordial and, you know, beat around the bush for a while.
But they were, it was very clear.
It was like a, you know, five or six sentence letter that was like, you have to do this.
You can't have any LIBOR denominated securities or instruments in your account at all.
So to come back to the patronage question, though.
Okay, so a historic example of a blowup would be all those dollars and all those
trade all those people buying stock overseas aren't allowed to play right so i'm saying like there's a
very good chance in the future that we may exist in a vacuum i guess was the point i was trying to get at
without someone like a crazy person right the u.s dollars being put to work in u.s markets so a historic
example of um you know right after the great depression once it hit germany is that the middle
class who owned stocks in germany got wiped out and that was the big part for you know the uh revolution
movement that occurred soon after to stabilize things.
But the people actually had physical control of the factories and farms did very well.
They did better, in fact, in the midst of that.
So as far as patronage, I guess a question why you use kind of Germany and Japan as historic examples is,
you know, getting people to invest directly in the things that are real CAPEX that create real
tangible value, that they know their savings.
is safe in an industry that actually makes things.
You know, if you work at Mitsubishi and your savings account is with Mitsubishi Bank,
and you know, Mitsubishi is making, you know, generators and fighter planes and, you know,
cars and air conditioners and whatnot, you know, they have the economic capacity of selling
things that are valuable to other people and getting wealth for that, that there's some security
there, right, as opposed to these accounting fictions that we're talking about, which is, yeah,
when they blow up, you have an IOU for what?
I mean, I think ETFs are a whole other version of that as well.
Nobody's really looking at the divergence risk or slippage between, you know,
ETFs and what they claim to represent.
So for our guys, though, who actually are focused on real productivity in creating that parallel
infrastructure, I guess, you know, to get one or two steps ahead of this, right?
That you're not left holding the bag, finding out that it's,
it's a cat and not a pig in the poke.
All right. Well, so a majority of the boomer's capital is tied up in public markets.
Right.
So we're talking about a complete destruction of capital markets, a near hypothesis.
Right.
We're talking about the destruction of boomer capital, which we...
I'm betting what's going to happen is similar to Maiden Lane with the mortgage-backed securities
is that they'll, you know, sovereign is he who decides the state of exception.
So they'll say, well, it's okay for Fed to own special purpose vehicles.
It's an economic emergency.
we're not really going to prosecute ourselves.
And basically they'll create a special purpose vehicle to take these index funds onto the Fed balance sheet.
And then they'll do gated redemption so that boomers still get their retirement income.
It'll be uncomfortable.
They'll lose their liquidity, but they'll maintain the notional value of those securities.
And then they're just going to use financial repression, which is a fancy way of saying inflation.
Instead of the stocks dropping and notional value to what they're actually worth,
they're going to use inflation to debase the currency until it reaches.
is that artificially high watermark.
And then the boomers will be dead.
But at the time that happens and their retirement income won't be a political question anymore.
What time are you thinking?
So I'm not saying it's going to happen soon.
It may not even happen in my lifetime.
I'm in my 40s now.
So let's say between 10 to 30 years.
Okay.
Well, so boomers, the population is a very interesting thing.
So that Jewish guy in,
in what you can call it, Peter Stone
you this a little bit at dinner, right?
So chaos theory is terribly named.
It's actually like nonlinear systems dynamics.
Right?
And it was discovered when they tried to model two things
that on the surface seemed like very simple systems.
One was the weather.
It's like eight or nine different, you know,
inputs like very much of pressure winds me, whatever.
The other one was population, right?
It was a deer population.
And they found that even though the whole system operated on five variables, right,
because that means there should be a total of 25 possible outcomes, right?
Every thousand or so iterations, it would give them some insane number.
And they couldn't make this go away.
So the boomers are that.
So like the story that you're told is that like, okay,
after World War II, everybody came home and fucked a lot.
Like, okay, well, how come South America has a baby boomer generation?
How come India's got a fucking baby boomer generation?
Did they come home from World War II and fuck a lot?
No, I, that's not what happened.
So the boomer generation is a global phenomenon.
And COVID, so basically the, you know, our population decreasing 5X would actually be a return
to the mean, right?
It is the boomer generation.
generation that is the anomaly. It's the boomer generation of the outwater. So right now we're
already down 30% on our boomer count and we lose roughly 10 to 13% every year. All right. So that
means in three years, right? We're already passed, we're inching up on 50%.
Right. And then after that point, they're no longer the dominant economic factor.
Right. And this is why everyone's this is why they are freaking out. This is why nothing they do works. Right. This is why the market doesn't work. This is why none of the debt works, right? Right. This leverage bubble that they've made. Yeah. Mike Green famously is the analogy of, you know, if your brakes don't work in a car, but you're driving up a hill, you don't really notice it. But then once you cross the peak and are driving downhill and your brakes don't work, then you're in for a big problem.
And yeah, getting these groups that's dashed away in these securities as a way of sucking inflation out of the system.
Well, now that they're selling to redeem that in order to generate their retirement income, it's all getting pipe back in.
So, yeah, the demographic crisis mixed with, you know, with that Band-Aid solution.
No, I think the demographic crisis isn't a crisis at all.
I think it's a blessing.
I think it's the best thing that'll ever happen to the country.
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Right, so check this out.
You have a pyramid, right?
So our whole society is a pyramid scheme, right?
Where you have a whole bunch of people at the top or on the bottom working their ass off,
right, and that money filters up and it gets taken out a little bit of time
to support the people at the top, the old peoples, right?
And what we have right now, right?
So you can add up the boomers and the millennials together.
And there's five times as many boomers as those.
Actually, I think you could probably throw in the Gen Xers too, but I'm not going to do.
Right.
So just the Gen Xers and the millennials put those together.
There's five times as many baby boomers.
So what we have is the pyramid scheme has flipped upside down.
Small amount of people at the bottom working and a large amount of people on the top taking all the resources.
What happens when they're gone?
Right?
So the baby boomers also own all the houses.
They own all the small businesses.
They want all the medium-sized businesses, right?
All of the infrastructure that you're talking about, right?
Let's just use it in turn, let's just, we'll just call infrastructure and, you know, small and mid-sized businesses as, we'll just use houses.
This is easy for everybody to understand.
How do you sell if the baby boomers on all the houses?
Right.
And there's five times as many of them as there are.
as many of them as there are of us.
How do you sell five houses to one person?
You don't.
Right.
And also, you know, the issue is they're not selling.
Or as of now, the people at that bottom of the inverted pyramid do not have the capital to buy them out, right?
Exactly.
But the problem is going to sort itself out because you can't sell five houses to one person.
Well, there'll be some massive indivor when they die.
Or they'll give it all the way to charities and foundations and found.
foundations for political purposes.
They'll give it to Haitians because they hate their white kids that much.
Maybe.
But whether they give it away to Haitians or not, a large portion of them are not going to.
There's no way that you have that type of disparity without a correction in price.
So I think the housing affordability problem is going to sort itself out.
And in the way that that is going to be sorted out, we,
our guys, if they are ready and prepared, are going to face a once in a hundred-year buying opportunity.
Right.
And I mean like, okay, you can't afford a house person that is listening to this.
Right.
Well, in the future that I'm talking about, you're probably not going to be able to get a fucking mortgage either.
So that sucks.
But could you buy a house if it was 90% off?
I bet you could.
especially when even if it's 90% off, there's still four of them that aren't going to get bought.
So obviously, it's going to get a little bit worse than 90% off.
But just hypothetically, could you afford a house at 90% off?
I bet you could.
Or what about a small business?
What about a machine shop?
Right?
What about in small engineering company with five or six CNC machines?
Because at the same time, this is happening.
We have this other thing happening.
which is the strategic defense initiative for onshore and production.
And big mega corporations, like the ones that currently dominate everything,
what's called dominate production.
They're like cruise ships or battle ships,
or the biggest air, whatever the biggest fucking ship you can think of is.
They take a really long time to turn around.
So this is just a hypothetical or a hunch.
but I think the demographic
reality is going to set in
right as we're going into peak onshoreing
and there's no way that you onshore without shortages
there's no way
which is going to create an artificial demand scenario
right now anything you want to buy is made by fucking Lobo Fagget Corp
and it's made in China and shipped to you
and you can go to your Walmart to get it.
Right.
But if Globo Corp has to move all of its production over here, that takes time, right?
Like they can't even build a fucking semi-conductor facility in Arizona, right?
It's just going to take a lot.
So that means that there is going to be a demand opportunity that won't exist any other time in history, I don't think.
Well, not in history.
That's a ridiculous statement.
But let's just say in the next 80 years, whatever.
that someone is going to have to fill the gap.
Right.
So right now, small and medium-sized businesses can't compete.
Because you're competing against literally the entire third world,
making things for peanuts and whatever.
Right.
But if we're onshore and manufacturing again,
there is going to be at least a three or four year,
maybe even longer, period, until their manufacturing facilities
are constructed in the places that,
they're on shoring too. So who is going to step in and fill the gap? Right. Shortages mean
price increases. Yes, that sucks. But what that also means is opportunity that was previously
taken away, right? So small and medium sized businesses, the engineering shops, right? They have to make
fancy stuff that's ITAR compliant. Right. So if you have 10 CNC machines, the only way you could
even make any money at all is if you're doing aerospace or defense.
because the regulatory compliance structure called ITAR still burdensome that it can only be done by U.S. companies
and can only be done by these small engineering shops because at a large scale, the regulatory burden becomes too much.
So like Lockheed Martin isn't actually a defense contractor, right?
It doesn't build shit.
It just buys a whole bunch of pieces from tiny companies, mid-sized companies,
common pop-sized companies and assembles them and then sells it to the government for much more,
right? But if I can make a bunch more money, right, making something much simpler, right,
like, I don't know, think of what's a, you know, a small metal object, like a kitchen appliances,
right? If my CNC machines could make way more because Global Corp fucked up and their, you know,
their blender factory is not here yet, right?
There is now a market opportunity where one previously did not exist for me to stop making
bullshit ITAR compliant stuff and crank the fuck out a bunch of lenders.
So typically though, you know, that is still requires bank capital in a medium term in
order to do, you know, expansion or retool or whatever it is.
to do that. It's not a fire sale.
Right. So even that too, because you mentioned the boomer selling their businesses,
but they're not going to sell working businesses. I think that's going to be a very rough
transition. It'll be an asset sale and then, you know, whoever does buy it is going to have to
figure out how to apply it for future. But so, you know, in terms of answering this patronage
question of how do you have that capital network, you know, and maybe you have some,
insight on this from working in VC in order to, you know, sponsor something like that, right?
That you're identifying talent, people who could make that happen to do that retooling of that
CNC equipment, and you're going to invest in them and have that 10-year time horizon.
Because it's not going to be, you know, the managerial state's banking system, right?
This is going to be private money that has to do this.
Yes, I see an explosion of private lending in the future.
and also it doesn't have to just be private lending.
And honestly, I don't think that may,
I don't think that's actually the way that it should be done.
Right.
So I think this,
do you know how VC structure came about?
Yeah, feel, so, yeah, feel free to explain from the beginning
because, yeah, I think the smartest people in finance and economics
are usually of that financial historian mindset.
So, yeah, beginning at the beginning is usually best.
Yeah, it's from, in a nutshell, it came from whaling because whaling was so risky.
All right.
You had the general partner and the limited partner.
The general partner is going to put up, let's say, 10% of the money.
Right.
So in our fund, we do a bit more than 10%, but 10% is pretty standard.
So 10% of the money in the total pot of what is called a fund to big pot.
which it effectively is.
10% of the money in the pot is mine.
And I am very skilled at picking whaling locations or startups, whichever one.
And you would like to capture some of my location picking startup picking prowess.
So you're going to take a passive seat.
which means I will invest your money as I see fit, right?
But I will split the returns with you.
It's in like, I will only take 10% or 20% of the money I make you.
So, you know, it's a pretty good deal.
And 90% of that pot is going to be filled with outside investors.
And they just get to sit at home, you know,
in Nantucket or whatever fishing place.
While I actually go out and I find the whales and find startups,
I think that exact same structure would be very, very good.
It lends itself to joint venture very easily.
Because if I have the capital,
you know who's not going to be retooling those machines?
Me.
You know who's not going to be trying to take those products?
to market, me. And it was not going to be working 12 hour days, seven days a week, me.
So I want a passive ride. Joint venture is probably the best way to do it because it binds my
interest. If I'd lend you money, my interest is only in the interest being paid, whether it's
you or I boot you out and somebody else wants to assume your loan or whatever.
I only care about the interest, but if it's a joint venture, I care about the actual underlying
business and your ability to manage it. It's that skin in the game type thing.
Right. So I think whichever way you're going to do, you would want.
Right. So do we have that for our guys?
though like where is the the the based fund that is putting that money into show me the
base companies i've had this conversation with a dozen people i i think i think i ranted to you about
this for a little bit but it's probably the thing you mean about you mean about how people just you
mean about how people just say you got to be building you got to be building and then but they don't
tell you what to build that and the um dissonant publisher yeah everybody we need more dissonant publishers
We do.
Yeah, we don't.
That actually took me by surprise
that somebody pointed out
I was like, you know,
oh, really, doesn't it right,
is just a bunch of artists.
And I'm like, oh, I never really thought of it that way.
And it was also pretty disappointed
to think of it that way.
Because I think there are a lot of engineers,
builders,
like people who make concrete things
who, you know, can't get a living
that would give them a home,
a wife and kids.
And there's not to be a way to make that a discount rate where they would happily work their
asses off to make things that are actually valuable if they knew they had some kind of like
underwritten guarantee of decent quality of life in that sense.
Put this way.
Artists deserve to be poor.
Sure.
Right.
Yeah.
But there's there have to be our guys who are engineers who would make things if somebody
believed in them to make that kind of long-term debt.
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Yeah, so the answer to why there is no based VC fund is because no one
has been able to show
I don't care whether it's based
or not based I'm an investor
right you know what doesn't pay bills
moral platitudes
right right
like you being more based
than the fucking
I don't know training with a unicorn
company I'll go be based by myself
with my unicorn bucks
thank you very much like it's my money
prove to me
that you have got a company that will deliver me
outsize returns to justify the insane risk.
What our guys don't understand is that if you want money for things,
you want guys to invest in your thing,
well, you're in a competition.
You just don't know it.
I have literally thousands of things
that I can do with my money.
I can make 5% on my money guaranteed by the government.
I could do that and I could take zero risk, right?
I can take some risk and invest in a stock that's publicly traded and if I don't like it
or if it starts to look sketchy, I can bail out whenever the fuck I want to, right?
But what you're asking me to do is to tie myself to the
hip to you, basically be sighings twins with my money, right?
To where if you turn out to be a fucking idiot that doesn't know what they're doing,
I am stuck with you.
My money is going to ride all the way down to zero, right?
Where if it was, if you were a stock, I could just sell you.
The second I got the first whiff or retardation, I'd be out the door.
Right.
So, you know who doesn't have this.
Like, Cuomdo is if you own a bank and you're creating a credit basically out of thin air.
You can afford to, you know, take losses.
That's like that's different.
You ask me where the base we see's come from.
If we're talking about venture lending, you know, if I'm unsure of your ability to run a machine shop,
I could give it to you in venture debt at 12% interest.
and if you do not succeed, I will sell your building and I will sell all your machines
and hopefully that will pay the difference.
So like investing in a company is asking me to take a ride with you and lending you money
is significantly less risk and infinitely more protections.
But the rate of return is generally capped at something like 12%.
I'm not making any multiples.
There's going to be zero X's in my return.
So I think and this is why different businesses lend themselves to different style of capital formation.
So I don't want to put this.
I think there's a question of, you know, to bring it back to, you know, that, you know, is being based enough.
There's a question of political will, right?
Like China as a communist government said, we are just going to dominate manufacturing.
and as a political
dictat
dumped a ton of money
to make that happen
and it worked
and now people complain about
overproduction which I don't think is a real thing
but they
completely dominate manufacturing
a lot of electronics manufacturing
and so on
there's no reason we can't
do that also I think it's just a question
of having the will to
make it happen
again Imperial Japan did the same
thing. They lent to people and said, you know, we've got faith in you. Yes, you have no track record,
but because we share a common culture and we want the same goals, we think you're not just going to
screw this up or take advantage. You know, it's not going to be, you know, PPP money for fake
inner city businesses. Yeah, but they have the state, though, right? So like, let's say you suck
at your business, right? I can be like, oh, shit, now I have a huge.
huge deficit and I need to make that up. So everyone, guess what? We're doing an income tax
rates. Sorry. Or it gets spread out for inflation. It's inflation that's never recovered through
because the capital structure did not become more efficient. It just is used. Yeah. But if you're
going to ask a private person, who is going to cover like there's no incentive mechanism for me to
for me to take that bet, right?
If it comes down to like state mandated investing in the 20,000 right-wing dissident book publisher,
I'm going to bury my money in the backyard and pretend to be poor until you go away.
So I guess I'm thinking of in terms of that for, you know, a people, a culture who values actual productivity, you know,
make those high trust relationships at a discount before people who are actually competent
become so rare and such a necessity that they're going to set their own price.
I think there is an opportunity to buy them cheap now because people don't realize what time
it is.
See, I've been urged, and let me know what you think about this.
I've been urging every person.
So I basically my little spiel about, you know, whether it's a,
economic stuff or whatever usually it ends in like an inundation of dms or whatever and they ask me like
i am in x y z situation what do i do if i have x y z amount of capital what do i do if i have
you know no capital what do i've gotten like a wide range of these and it's the younger guys
obviously that tell me like hey i don't have any capital right like like how
Because lending now is basically asset-based.
I mean, that's the vicious cycle of, you know, lending is based on what you have assets as collateral in order to get future loans.
And unless you're a boomer that owns a house and a large stock portfolio, you don't have the collateral to get that loan.
But under, you know, the New Deal, for example, you know, they did redlining, redlining and say, oh, you're the kind of person that lives in this neighborhood and you're probably responsible and you're probably going to pay back this 30-year mortgage that they invented out of nowhere.
the idea that 30-year mortgage was crazy to bankers until that got pushed through.
And turns out actually most of them did pay their mortgage.
And it worked.
So I've gotten, and you said you caught that, that show I did with the Jason from the two-bit podcast.
Yes.
And how it ended, I believe, if memory serves, is how I got to work.
where I am through childless boomers, which there are a lot of, that are successful.
And also through boomers who've been insanely very successful, whose kids don't give a fuck
what dad does.
They don't give a shit.
They don't hear his stories.
They just care about their credit card bill being paid.
And I basically was the guy that would listen to those stories.
I wanted to hear all the stories.
And we give the boomers a lot of shit.
We really do.
And a lot of it is deserved and a lot of it isn't, right?
Because they don't, everything in their totology, you know, as basically their paradigm, everything that they've, because your paradigm is also your, it's not just like what you believe.
it's the information you build your reality with.
Yeah, it's like your sense making of the world.
The options that you think are available to you.
So when they're unhappy, right, like let's say the boomers without, you know,
whose kids don't give a shit, or that they've done everything in their life, right,
they've achieved tremendous amounts of financial success.
They don't know the options that we know about, you know, spiritual success.
They don't know these other things are available to them that we know.
So I don't blame them as much as everybody else does.
So with these guys that I'm talking about, like I was that guy.
I was the surrogate kid that cared.
So is what you did replicable?
That's the question I had to Jason too.
My first question is, well, where do you meet these boomers?
You know, I would love to have those kinds of conversations with them as well.
Finding them and getting them to be willing to have that conversation is a whole other thing.
This is what I was trying to get it before when I was talking about the machine shops.
We're talking about capital formation.
I see the solution not as like private lending necessarily.
I see it as apprenticeships.
I see apprenticeships solving a lot of what we are talking about because I bet you every,
like if you live in, you know, let's say I don't know, you know, rural Appalachia, right?
I can't, you know, there's not a lot of multi-millionaire boomers around you.
There's probably two or three.
And they own businesses that operate in those communities, right?
And I've had, a good friend of mine was in, and this is going to ruffle on
of feathers because I know, like, oh, we can't teach your guys to be plumbers or whatever.
Like, I had a...
And I've seen a lot of boomers where they're not interested in teaching or a place.
They're like, oh, I don't get paid for that.
That's not my job.
You know, part of that paradigm you talk about is that they lack a sense of legacy.
You know, and often they think, well, I'm just going to do this until I'm gone.
And then I don't care what happens in my plumbing business afterwards because I'll be in the ground.
That, you know, they have no sense of like, well, why should I take on extra work and extra responsibility?
I'm already in a mindless routine that I could just keep doing what I'm doing until.
Here I'm something to them.
And what I'll say is this, all of the guys that should be working for them, right, they can not give a shit about legacy.
That's fine.
But that's not the problem that they're facing.
All right.
So my friend, his mother died, and he had to go to New York and basically handle her estate.
And her refrigerator was broken.
And it was an old refrigerator that he wanted to keep.
Right.
And there was one refrigerator repair person for like all of like, you know,
uh, northern New York.
And it took him two months to get this guy to show up.
And the guy was a single boomer, right?
He'd been in business for 30 years.
And he is trying to find employees that he will happily pay $90,
dollars an hour, $80 an hour
because he charges $150 an hour.
And he can't find a single fucking person
to come work for him.
Because we
were just as synopt as
they were.
Every single person
that we see in our age
group, yes, Kat, I will let you
in. You're not the boss.
They all went and got
college degrees.
Even college degrees, they
can't even fucking use and don't matter.
a job like that
is beneath them
in some capacity. Yeah, they don't
want to get dirty and sweaty.
And most of the product is
some fucking faggot
place. When they
if they were willing to get even slightly
dirty, which is another thing that
our guys do, right? Leftists
don't like getting their hands dirty.
Right? Leftists think they're intellectuals and that
you know, manual labors beneath
them. You know, it's not beneath
like, we do that shit for free.
Yeah.
We're the type of people that do that shit.
Yeah, I work in finance, and that's like my leisure activity is.
Exactly.
Exactly.
So we are those guys, and we will damn sure do it for almost $100 an hour.
So the-
Are those openings there, though?
Maybe this just means there's a market to be the matchmaker between these two,
because, I mean, that's great to hear that there are the ones
who want to hire the apprentices and bring people,
and that's exactly what I'd be looking for.
Like another example is PLC programmer for industrial machines.
And it tends to be those old boomers who have all the wisdom and, you know,
40 years of experience.
But there's no openings to get a 20-year-old who does want to get dirty
and wants to make that $90 an hour to start working in that field.
There's no, like until they pass away,
that opening doesn't exist.
Because I think there's a lot of our guys
who do want those kinds of jobs and they can't find them.
There's like three engineering shops that I know.
I've been taking extra capital
and socking it away in CNC machines.
Nice.
Yeah.
I don't plan on putting them to use myself.
I'm not opening up a machine shop.
I have friends that own machine shops
and I'm going to use the cheaply acquired
CNC machines.
at a discount because businesses in Chicago are going bust and I'm going to use those machine
shop because they're already at they're they cannot meet the demand that they have and it's a huge
problem their biggest problem is CAD engineers right there's not enough young guys that no
CAD and are willing to learn you know at a slightly discounted rate for a year all of the you know
changing the machines, changing the dyes and bits or whatever and doing, you know, the less
exciting, you know, CNC job for a year while they learn the actual CNC job and no CAD.
So if this is such a massive market dislocation, where is the VC for, you know, the right-wing
trades university? You know, maybe they can't afford to do that. So, you know, what's that coding college,
where it's like they get subsidized on the classes and then part of their salary for the first three years that they're working gets clawed back in order to pay for the education that made that job possible.
Again, it seems like there's an economic opportunity or business opportunity to close that gap to, you know, to make those ends meet where currently now they're not, right?
Well, so if the answer is, if the question is where is the VC to come in and, you know, funnesty.
to university
he won't
right
because that's not
going to make him
money
but like a
what you're
what we're kind of
circling around is let's say
a
a staffing agency
okay sure
all right
and if somebody put a very
compelling staffing agency
right and was able to
draw comps right
this is the other thing right
it's comps right so it never like well where are the vcs how come no one's funding like i've
had people try and get like oh this person i've got a great you know uh youtube channel or do you
want to help me fund my song i'm a great musician right like that's not going to make me like
show me a business model right show me a business plan right nobody's putting the work in to think
to learn what somebody like me is expecting to see and what your competition looks like, right?
You know, all the non-based normie pitchdacks that I get and the very valuable businesses
that exist underneath them, you need to be like that, but better.
And my money is going to go, right?
So we're all about meritocracy until it's like, oh, how come nobody's investing in our space?
now we want communism.
Well, where's the VC to just come in and give me my money?
Like, no, motherfucker.
Give me a business.
And I will invest in it if it is a business that looks like I can generate a reasonable
rate of return.
And over what time frame, though, because I think, you know,
the problem I've seen with a lot of VC and even some of the VC firms
that are private equity firms that are trying to be based
is because of that opportunity cost that you mentioned,
they have a very short time horizon.
They want to make the quick flip.
They want to buy the business, juice it up, and then sell it three years later for 10x.
They're not looking to say, okay, I'm going to invest in this business for the next 20 years
because they're going to have amazing cash flow and we're going to get a percentage of,
you know, those profits that whole time, like a buy and hold strategy.
You know, it mostly looking at market cap.
That's growth.
That's growth, that's growth private equity.
big. They buy businesses and flip them, lever them up and flip them.
Right. So long-term private equity is a different animal.
So like Carlisle Group is they're buying businesses that are already large caps.
So say like 100 million plus. In fact, like much larger, usually several billion dollars.
They've been in business for a very long time and they see, you know, distributions as their
primary methodology.
Yeah.
of generating returns.
And VC is the person that takes the risk in the beginning.
So my exit horizon, right, from the time I invest, is best case scenario seven years.
Best case.
If I'm investing in a startup, unless you get, unless you're super, super successful,
and within a couple of years, grow so fast that you're already,
like causing the major companies fucking, you know, heartburn and sleepless nights,
so they have to buy you out of anxiety of what you could become, then maybe five years.
But best case scenario, on average, I'm looking at a seven-year investment.
I am stuck with that.
Right.
So you and I are Siamese twins, my money, and your business idea for seven years.
So what's your expected exit in this scenario?
Is it something other than buyout or IPO?
Usually purchased by a larger company because I'm investing in early stage companies.
So an early stage company is going to basically try and become a thorn in the side of the major companies
by doing their business in a different way, much better.
to the point where my business model is superior to your business model.
And if you allow me to continue, I will kill you.
So you can either buy me now or be killed by me later.
What do you want to do?
And every big business is going to say, well,
oh, here's your giant cartoon check.
Right.
But that's also how they get nerfed, right?
is, you know, if meta or...
So you're asking me to solve both...
You just have to fix the world.
And you make a company problems.
What Google does with your tech that they buy
is whatever they want to do because they own it.
I can't fix Google,
but I can get them to buy early stage companies
if I cause them enough headache
and enough, you know, few response.
So how do we get our own Google,
I guess, is we're going with this, right?
It's the parallel infrastructure thing of, you know, if what is really going to count,
especially, you know, when this is looking pretty...
This is the problem with parallel infrastructure conversations.
They're always parallel infrastructure and not superior infrastructure.
People go where the superior infrastructure is, right?
Just like capital, right?
My investor dollar is going to go in the best investment opportunity.
my, you know, human capital.
So that's contingent on the managerial state's bank then.
You know, that's like why, you know, Ricardian comparative advantage and global homo doesn't work out in real life is because it's the banks that are, you know, putting the Fed put in that system.
And to go out, you know, to fight the Fed usually ends in disaster.
No, like with big companies, right?
Google's about to die, I would say, within five years.
Not many people don't see it coming, but a few of us are.
I'm not going to be the Fed that did it.
It's going to be its bigness.
When something becomes big, big and bureaucratized to a point,
it cannot rapidly defend itself.
very similar to like a nation state.
The more bureaucratic layers, and that's for this way, if all of a sudden, let's say like
50% of the Mexicans in Mexico weren't actually Mexicans at all and were actually Chinese people
pretending to be Mexicans like in costumes that they took off when they were at home in their
house and then all of a sudden one day they took up their costumes and charged across the border
with AKs.
we'd be fucked.
And we'd be fucked because our bureaucratic structure is so large and burdensome, it is
incapable of rapidly pivoting, directing its resources, and defending itself.
A corporation is no different.
Google can't defend itself from competitors because it has to do everything by committee.
and there's 90 different layers of bullshit.
So basically, somebody inside Google may have a brilliant idea
on how to defend Google from this upstart attacker.
But that guy's idea is just that guy's idea.
He has to get it past his manager.
And that manager has to see the same opportunity that he does, unlikely.
And then that guy has to go to his regional director
or whatever asshole titles they have.
or like change agent or whatever faggity bullshit that they put on their
LinkedIn right it has to go through a whole lot of LinkedIn faggity titles
and it probably won't and even if it does best case it is so watered down it is nigh on
ineffectual so science is how are they really at risk if they could just do stock
buybacks though i mean i think that's the big problem with this the bigness and the
manager revolution in general is
the need for profit motive basically goes out the window because you've got you know the banking system
stock aren't going to help you if this other company is growing faster than you investor dollars are
going to go there you can only buy back so much stock without fucking revenue right if company like
let's say ticto if i wanted to make a long-term play in tech let's say like by long-term i mean
three years right if i were to go back
or let's just say I'm going forward three years.
TikTok's growth is parabolic,
and Google's growth
has been relatively flat
and stayed the same,
maybe up and down three or four percent
for the last decade.
There is no more market share.
I don't care.
I'm not going to make any money
on the company that's already big already.
How do you make your money?
You make your money on the ride up, right?
You make your money on a little company
becoming a big company, right?
But a big company,
like a mega company,
has gotten nowhere else to go, right?
There's not another billion customers
that exist for Google to acquire.
But there are infinity customers
to acquire.
So that's growth.
And capital is going to go over there.
Their share price is driven not by
revenue and growth in that sense,
but because they're, you know,
on the S&P 500 index
and the higher the share price,
the more that the index funds,
the Black Rocks and the vanguard's,
have to buy them,
you know,
bigness becomes its own feedback loop.
The problem with indexing in general is that,
you know,
all that decision-making about being profitable
in future revenue and buying at a discount
is evaporated.
And it's just, you know,
oh, the share price goes up, need more of it.
Hold on right, man.
you're talking to me about Polaroid.
Polaroid was the biggest company in the world
that didn't see the digital camera coming.
It literally was like one of the big,
I think it was one of the top three biggest companies ever
at the time.
It was the biggest of big.
And it thought the digital camera was stupid.
And now Polaroid is
a tiny little sliver
in some holding company
amongst their thousands of other brands
that nobody gives a shit about.
Or a good example of it in more modern time
and a more distorted time would be.
Blackberry or Erickson.
These were, I don't think people remember
how big these companies were,
literally just five years ago, eight years ago.
These were behemoths.
And they didn't defend.
defend themselves. They could have done all the stock buybacks they wanted and they
could, they did. And they could have went down to, you know, Joe Zan in accounting
and told her to write up X amount of bond issuances and take it across the
street to the broker and go raise me $20 billion. But eventually you get
bumped down to junk bonds. You go from AA or
triple A to double A.
Oh, still no revenue.
Now we're going to go from double A to
single A. Well,
revenue get better. No.
But our debt services sure got to fuck a lot worse.
But again,
but the company, the
ones who are buying those
shares are predominantly
running indices.
And on top of that, they're doing it levered because it's through the
futures market.
So are we talking about the company, or
are we talking about the share buyer that runs
the industry because if we right so let's say you know it's rock is running some you know as
and p 500 what is it with s mp 500 it's you know big tech is like the seven firms on that and uh
you know if it wasn't for them it'd be negative and it's highly concentrated in those seven
you know the fact that indexing is what is determining would you say that invidia is in everyone's
index. Yeah, and that's I think why they're so big now. It's not because of the AI or GPU sales.
I think it's, you know, just being on the index gives them a boost that now they have to get bought
because that's the definition of what the index is. So, Nvidia should be around here for, like,
let's say, three years from that. I think now that indexing is more than half of the market,
I think you're going to see indexing having a bigger influence over share price than fundamentals.
Because you're kind of telling me gravity doesn't exist.
So is it absolute or big influence or absolute influence enough to be?
I think because of, so Mike Green explains this better than maybe I am right now, but indexing is running the market.
and it's not the fundamentals of revenue and, you know, future profitability the way that people
traditionally think of stocks as value. It's on all, it's an algorithmic trade. It's on autopilot.
Even what drives that algorithm? What algorithm is it? Is it a momentum trade algorithm?
Yeah, right. So, right. So basically it's a momentum trade, right? You know, when, when given money buy,
when
CFO of
NVIDIA
walks in on his wife
fucking some Haitian
that she found in the garden
and
he shoots her
and then shoots himself
and then on the news the next day
it'll be NVIDIA CFO kills himself
you want to know what those momentum algos are going to do
they're not going to care about the Haitian
they're going to assume
that something catastrophic has happened in NVIDIA, right? And they're going to dump
Nvidia. So momentum trading is just momentum, right? It follows other momentum. So if the hedge
funds who are paying attention all start dumping, then the momentum algorithms are
chasing the hedge funds momentum. All right. Hedge funds start.
buying, then the momentum algorithms are chasing that momentum.
Right.
The market is impossible to manipulate in totality because it is hundreds of trillions of individual transactions that have interrelations
to every other thing that they're not even transacting with.
Right.
So like buy by a stock of X, that market and for that information, that information, that,
is now going to affect some fucking bond in China, right?
Because it's a fractal relationship.
It is self-similar at all scales.
So a good example of it is like the Treasury,
you know how the Treasury was batting around this $80 oil price cap
and everyone's like, no, that's not going to work.
That's terrible.
But yet for some reason, every time,
Oil looks like it's about to break $80.
Either some crazy news that ends up getting found out to be incorrect three or four days later after the fact.
But at that point, it's like our jobs report.
The revision doesn't matter.
Or some mysterious sell incomes and hammers the market.
So this $80 price gap that was the most retarded thing ever and was roundly shouted down by the entire financial market.
but the Biden administration was really intent on.
They literally fucking shelled that shit around the world,
brought it to, you know, COP 26 or whatever the fucking retarded one.
Anyways, that seemed to miraculously happen.
We have effect had an $80 oil price cap the last two years.
But the level and effort of market intervention has both increased in magnitude
and increased in frequency.
So if I'm trying to suppress something down and the force of my interventions each time require more and more and more and more force, at the same time as I have to do it more and more and more and more often, what that's showing you above the surface, what's happening below the surface is a nonlinear system happening.
So a feedback loop.
So even all the momentum, even on the Treasury intervention, eventually you can only do it so much because the cost of each intervention becomes exponential rapidly.
And the frequency in which you have to intervene is going to increase exponentially.
and eventually all that effort and all that time and force that you've been putting down all explodes at once
by the way that's what's going to happen in energy but anyways besides the point but
so the the the power that you are attributing to ETFs and these index funds exists but is not
omnipotent.
And it's, you know, indexes are more than 50% of the market.
And then because indexes are also the benchmark used by active fund managers, you
have a lot of closet indexers as well because they have professional risk or career risk that,
you know, they need to be, uh, close at least to the index or they're going to get fired.
So when these things are going down rapidly, do you think that everyone at BlackRock
has been like stare at it and like, oh shit, well, we better not do anything.
we better not go find some other assets to put this in.
Well, if it's an index, by definition, they can't, right?
Now, if it's active, that is supposed to be part of their mandate,
but that's being crowded out by the rise of indexing.
And because it is a feedback loop, you know,
so, yeah, until you hit that top of the hill and you realize your brakes don't work,
it keeps working until it doesn't.
So I think that is more of that, you know,
know, rubber band effect of, you know, asset prices rise because asset prices rise, and that's
just going to keep churning up and up and up until that meets the demographic crisis of
Fumers needing to sell, and market makers aren't going to be able to make money on making
a market in them because there's nobody on the other side of that trade. You know, the millennials
and Gen Z are not going to be able to buy them out.
We'll have to disagree and we'll have to agree to disagree. Okay.
All right. So let's move to...
We want to get back to...
Back on point with what we got together to talk about.
We've been going for a while, so if you wanted to wrap it up as far as basically...
Here's what I'm hearing is we want to have patronage networks.
People who have money want to make money.
Yet there are people who are people who are...
are like, there may be some people out there who are like, well, if you really believe in the,
if you really believe in the cause and you believe in the person, maybe that should be secondary
and maybe loyalty should be, loyalty to your people should be, it seems like to me,
listening to the conversation, that's where the stressor is happening. That's how this
conversation got to. We're going to have to agree to disagree. Yeah, like with, it's like with
the green investing, right? They couldn't,
get anybody to buy into the green shit until they gave them enough of incentive mechanism
to do it everybody all those all those faggots that are you know going to going to davos or whatever
they all want to feel good about themselves right to where they will take a lower return
but there needs to be some return right so you're not going to and you're not going to my relationship
to my people does not supersede my relationship to my family. It is an extension of it.
So I will want to help you. But what I see is people wanting, at least from what I've been approached
to like, hey, do you want to invest in this? It's like for me to do it for you.
I guess what would be very helpful is to describe what I'm like the type of founders I'm used to, right?
Like what it actually takes, who you're up against.
Yeah, that was kind of a takeaway I got from this as well as maybe the first step is,
we got to teach people how to write pitch decks and just get like, yeah, here, here's a base version of,
you know, if you're going to make a value proposition, this is how you're going to attract people.
And then, you know, that we do give them access to the people who have money and that they get at least five minutes.
No, so like, if it's not even get, let's put this way, if you've got the idea, man, money will find you.
All right.
This is what I mean.
I was having this conversation with times, right?
If you're going to have a couple VCs that are floating around the space because they're here for the ideas.
That's why that's why I'm here, right?
That's why Mark Andreessen is here.
that's why Peter Thiel is here because it's an intellectually interesting space
right nowhere else has that so it's the ideas that brought us here right now it's up to
like so we came and found you right like so like the you know the spurge on twitter that you know
has been reading esoteric you know he's actually one of these pub he's actually one of these like eight
customers that exist for the 1,000th right-wing book publisher of, you know, long-forgotten
texts, right? He's one of those guys. And he's been, you know, diligently putting out
ideas. And I heard them and they excited me and I came. So now you have my attention, right?
pitch me something, right, and actually put the amount of work, right?
So like your autism and your beliefs, right, the ideological drivers, right, all the reasons
why I should pay attention to you, right, because of people, because of, you know, legacy and
interests, that's what got me here.
but I don't manage all my money.
I have a fiduciary relationship.
I am responsible for the money of others.
Right?
So, but if I see a good investment,
I'm going to take it.
So,
yeah.
The thousands of people,
guys in our sphere are so fucking in their own end zone.
They want to do...
I think we've got a lot of...
...c machines and then we've got a lot of money.
And nobody with the business plan to say,
here's what those CNC machines could make domestically.
No, it's worthwhile for people.
They're kind of a fucking CNC machine idea.
Right?
It's all...
They don't understand what they are interested in,
a very small group of people are interested in.
Right?
And unless you're going to sell...
that very small group of people, things that cost millions of dollars,
which you can't because they don't have millions of dollars,
you need to come up with an idea that everybody,
and not just niche, weirdos,
so I probably agree with this too.
It's the Chick-fil-A model.
You know, the people that they hire and the people that they franchise for Chick-fil-A
are generally based,
but they sell chicken sandwiches to everybody,
and they make money from that.
Whereas, you know, I'm in the pro.
I just feel it's beneath them.
Like, oh, fucking Normie, the losers, my ideas are too esoteric and cool for that.
Well, whereas the other, yeah, I'm going to throw Glenn Beck under the bus here,
you know, running ads for Patriot Gold and dehydrated food buckets made in China
is taking money from our guys and giving it to our enemies.
It's backwards.
You know, the way this has to work is.
to your point, that you have to sell to everybody, but then the ones who you bring into the
fold where you pay them salary, you hire them, you promote them, you let them be owners, is our guys.
Pete, how did you like zero to one?
I liked it because it changed the way I thought.
The idea how monopoly is described in that and the benefit of monopoly, and I know that there's a lot of
guys out there, I mean, there are billionaires that I listen to their podcast and stuff. They
disagree with the idea of monopoly. They think that monopoly causes people to be stagnant,
causes innovation to be stagnant. But that's not the way I saw it. I understood exactly what they
were. I understood the points that he was making in that. So yeah, I mean, I liked it because
it caused me to think, it caused me to think differently. And it basically broke some of the
old stale libertarian kind of thought that was in my head.
Yeah.
It's the Blue Ocean idea, right?
That I don't see.
The one difference I would say in the type of companies and stuff that I have to look at.
And the type of ideas that I get pitched on Twitter or stuff like that,
they're all like the based version of this thing that already exists right and i can't stand it
i want somebody to show me something that i've never fucking seen before never thought of before
right and you know you how you know when you've encountered a good idea that's a company
or like a good idea that's like a pitch deck i want to get angry when i read your deck i want to be so
fucking angry, I can't see straight.
Because I want to read your deck
and I want to think, why the fuck didn't I think of that?
God damn it.
This makes so much sense.
It's like, how did I not?
Like, the best ideas are the ones that
any book, like, when you see them
and somebody else has them,
they get you angry because you're like,
this was sitting right in front, like this was in front of me
the whole time.
like why, of course, this makes a total sense.
And when an investor sees that, it triggers, like, I'm cutting a check.
Because that means I know that whoever else sees this company is going to get it immediately.
It's going to get why it's important.
And they're going to, it's going to get why, like, right-wingers describe businesses like fucking leftists meme.
I don't want a fucking big, like I want to look at it and I want to get it.
Because that means if I can look at it and I can get it, that means anybody, right wing,
not right wing, right?
Everybody that looks at it is going to get it.
And they're going to look at the way they were doing it before and go,
why the fuck was I doing this before?
Like, this is so much easier.
Right.
And when that happens, all of the things like Blue Ocean stuff, all that's baked in, right?
I know nobody else is doing it this way because I have, you know, a violent reaction when I saw this deck because, you know, it was right there in front of my face.
And how did, how has no one done this before?
Like, how are you the asshole that, that thought this up?
Like, how come I'm not that guy?
That's what we want to see.
Like, I've seen enough bookstores.
I've seen enough publishers.
I've seen enough magazines.
I've seen enough shit that's for our own.
eyes.
You have any thoughts on Palmer Lucky and Andrel going after the military market, kind of doing
the Elon Musk thing, except it's, you know, rockets to kill enemies as opposed to rockets
to Mars?
The amount of drama, like, that happened, because right before that, right?
Right before that, there was a massive, like, George Floyd.
level, I don't want to call it a riot, I guess you can call it a protest, whatever, at Google.
It shut down the campus for like a week because Google employees, fucking Chinese communists
that work there and black people that shouldn't work there, found out that the,
a division of Google was working on something called Dragonfly.
for the Pentagon.
And this is a company that at the time was working on three different things for the Chinese
military, by the way.
But the fact that we were working on, Google was working on something for the U.S.
military, I mean, like if you had said what Peter Thiel, Palmer Lucky, and really this is
not just Peter Thiel, was all Founders Fund.
And it was Founders Fund first.
And Mark Inreason shortly after, I think within a day or two.
I can't describe to you how much of a social taboo that was.
Right.
So after this thing happened, right, like, oh, we're going to shut down Google because
we're going to protest you working for the fucking Defense Department.
Like, nigger, you're in America.
And we're going to like basically a whole fucking sit-in at Google because you don't like
the idea of like Google doing something for the Defense Department.
But we'll do stuff for the Chinese military.
and Peter Thiel stepped up and goes like, no, Founders Fund will invest in defense.
We're only going to invest in defense and space.
That's it.
And it was a brilliant strategy because at that point in time, all of tech was doing the
right-wing publisher bullshit, right?
Like, I'm going to be the Uber of X.
like basically it had gotten so easy to do a software-based startup right like oh i'll just grab my
hosting infrastructure from a ws that'll take 10 seconds oh i'll just grab this uh mapping engine from uh
it's just a bunch of APIs stacked together like legos the whole past thing yeah yes so basically
the barrier to entry the amount of skills that it was required to start a fucking app got dropped so
low that every fucking retard
had an app. So they were
diving down narrower and narrower and smaller and smaller
niches. Right? Like this is the app that's
kind of like Uber, but it's only for Indians that only
eat Chinese food. Like, okay, well what about
all Indians? No, that's this other guy's app.
Okay. Right? Like they were, it was
it had become nonsensical because it was so easy
to do startups. Just that. Just add
AI to the end of the company's name.
That'll get your next round.
The hardware stuff, the stuff that the penning on actually
wanted to do, nobody was doing.
And Peter Thiel's like, but the defense department pays a
shipload. And that whole system's
fucking broken. And he had a rock star success
with Palantir. And he's like,
I guess I'm imagining what his thought process was.
Be like, if I, like, because Peter Thiel's like the
Jamie Diamond of the West Coast.
Right.
Like, whatever Peter Thiel says he's doing,
everybody else is just going to do
because they can't afford to bet
that Peter Deal is wrong.
So you just do it.
Right?
Peter, let's put this way.
You know, the thing I see all the time is that nobody wants to do
their due diligence.
That's how these scams like FTX happen is,
oh, well, so-and-so invested in them.
So they must have done their due diligence.
So we don't have time to think,
let's just ride on their code.
tails and then it's turtles all the way down until they realize that like nobody's actually
done the research maybe for crypto shit but also FTX there's a there's a backstory to FTX that's a
lot more um covered in spooks what's that then uh then that is the real reason that that it exploded
because maybe it got caught washing a bunch of fentanyl money for china so they've definitely
do that must not have come up in the due diligence but it wasn't because they weren't smart
that they were but they were also criminals for a foreign nation so hey and that's why i think it's
very funny that the other criminals for a foreign nation uh Silicon Valley bank also got
assassinated by Peter deal um but yeah what palmer lucky is doing something anybody could have done
Right? Like, wait, we're just going to make drones, but for the military?
Okay. Well, how come no one's doing that? Well, I don't know.
Because who else was? Like, Lockheed and a predator drone that costs like 20 million,
but the drones were seen on the battlefield cost like 10 bucks. So who's making those for the Pentagon?
Well, nobody. We don't have it. Right. Like, everybody should have thought of that.
right like the drones we see on the battlefield cost $10 and will fly right in your face and kill themselves the drones not the operators
but we don't have drones to do that where are where are our kamikaze drones we don't have any
well and that i think you know because software was so cheap to make and people got habituated to that
that again, the idea of investing real capex in making real physical hardware things was intimidating.
People did not want to take the opportunity costs to take on that much entrepreneurial risk did not seem worthwhile.
Until somebody did the math and said, well, yeah, but the Pentagon pays crazy money.
So the risk is justified.
But when you're used to a low risk entrepreneurial environment, it's very easy to get stuck in that valley.
Yeah, kind of. It's kind of like that.
Also, the Pentagon
provided a very safe place to incubate these technologies.
That, I think, was the differentiator.
Because Palmer Lucky isn't just throwing a bunch of shit on the wall.
Maybe the Defense Department wants this.
Maybe they want this.
Maybe they want this.
What he's doing is collaborating.
Right. So what we've basically gone all the way back to is Star Wars.
This is how we got the end of it. Like, Pete, you never talking about like they don't, like the government, the military has the ability to look 30 years down the road when it invests.
Right. And it has the ability to take much greater risks with their capital and make really long-term investments that may or may not pan out.
So it looks like VC is doing it, but it's not.
It's collaborating.
This is kind of right where, you know, where we began, though, is that kind of incubation,
where they're willing to take that kind of risk over a 30-year time horizon,
historically has been proven to pan out.
I mean, maybe it's just that the right needs to have its own state,
And that's what will satisfy that level of risk taking.
But that's what I was trying to get at with the patronage thing, is that clearly that model does work, but it tends to be state actors who make it work.
And especially for military purposes.
You know, M. Sibu was making air conditioners, and they were also making zeros.
Well, that was, that's a point that I've been making for a while now, too, is the whole Samuel Concord.
and agorous thing about building a parallel society.
It's like, well, how do you do that with heavy industry?
And I guess the way I look at it is in 1991,
when a lot of these guys could have been working for the government,
they decided to do it on their own,
but use the government's money to do it.
Use money that they took from the government
in order to build their parallel society.
And that's what they're, they've done now.
And that's really the only way you're going to do it.
You're not going to get away with, you know, the biggest problem with agorism was always
heavy industry.
Well, how are you going to have parallel heavy industry when you have regulation, yada yada,
well, they found their way around it.
Right.
Work with the government until it's the time to try to destroy the government so that you can
take their place.
Which is where I brought banking into it, right?
only a bank really, you know, spends money that they don't have, which is why they don't feel the risk the way that if you had to earn your money in order to invest it, you'd be much more cautious with it.
Well, so the way that the good to Pete's question, to Pete's statement, the way that the government is doing it now is the government, before you had like Bell Labs and shit.
and now you have incubators, which are basically the little baby Bell Labs.
So the same thing is happening, right?
It's just happening in a more distributed sense because, well, so if we're going to talk about a state, right?
Pete, I said this to you, I think, the other day about a mutual friend,
that was thinking about getting a job in infrastructure,
like a manufacturing plant or something.
And I was very excited about it.
And I told him, like, I think you should do this
because, right, you have a shot at being management
at the same time as, so like right now,
like, let's just say, I don't know,
XYZ production company isn't very,
exciting. Okay. Why isn't it very exciting? It's exciting. It's not exciting because 90% of
production of XYZ happens in China and we're just a small guy. Well, what happens if all that
production in China stops? Then you're not a small guy anymore and you're going to be a very big
guy and now you're very close to the top of a very big thing. The more guys that we can get
working at power companies.
See, I don't believe in the competency crisis.
I don't.
I think it's bullshit and it's cope.
And before everybody like pillories me,
if Fortune 500 companies have only been making 2% of their hires,
less than 2% of their hires, right?
I get, you know, more than 1% I guess.
Straight white guys.
The most talented, highest propensity
the highest number of geniuses.
Sorry, Jews, that's not, you know, that you're not, the IQ stuff is bunk.
So we're like the straight white guy is the smartest guy.
We have the highest number of geniuses.
So you're telling me that all of the major publicly traded companies won't hire straight white guys like, you know, the genius demographic.
Okay.
Well, what about private companies?
Well, private companies, they don't get to just issue bombs.
They can't just borrow money from themselves and sell it to the market.
They can't raise money instantaneously.
Private companies have to go to big funds like, you know, Larry Fing's Faggot Shop or any of these other, you know, fidelity or whatever, right?
And because they can't sell their own bonds to the market,
these institutions like Fidelity, like BlackRock,
they have much more leverage because a publicly traded company,
like, oh, BlackRock don't want to give any money.
BlackRock's got 5% of my shares and is being a cunt on my board.
Okay, well, how much is 5% of our shares worth, Susan?
Okay, all right.
Well, write that number down and go take that to accounting.
and have them spit up that many bonds to equal that amount
and let me know when you're done
and tomorrow first thing,
I'm going to take that bond money,
I'm going to buy all Larry Fink's shares.
I don't want in my company anymore.
That's a possibility,
but a private company doesn't get to do that
because he can't just go tell Susan
to go spit some bombs out to the market
and raise money to get Larry Fink to fuck off his cap table.
This is where Michael Milken
creating the junk bond market is it's much worse if we think that 2% of white guys being hired
in public companies is bad it is probably worse in large private companies and there are
five times as many of them as there are publicly traded companies so I would wager that the amount
of high value human capital
that has been deliberately sidelined
right
is way more than anyone's factoring
because the only other stat is that
fucking Fortune 500 company one
all those companies are publicly traded but like
Pete like let's just say like two or three
of the mutual friends that we talk about
all right I bet you I could take any one of those kids
all right mid-20s
and I don't care whether you're a fucking
engineer at a nuclear power plant, right?
Or you make, you know, X, Y, Z, you know, I don't know,
I'm trying to think the most high, you know,
risk type infrastructure things.
So let's keep using nuclear power plants.
Let's just say you're the guy that builds the reactor, right?
There is not a fucking job in that nuclear power plant, right?
Or the manufacturing of the pieces that went into that plant,
that I couldn't teach one of our mutual.
friends in a year.
Like, hey, go sit underneath this guy.
Whatever his job is, learn that.
Every single one of those guys
can learn whatever that
fucking job is in a year.
So,
I don't see a competency
crisis. I see a misallocation
of human capital crisis.
Right. But they're not
dead. They exist.
So, yeah, I mean, this is
what I've been saying, too, is that
somebody has to act as
matchmaker between this glut
of weaponized autists who don't know
what to do with themselves and can't make any money
and then the capital
that wants to invest in
those kinds of people but can't find
them.
I think that capital exists. They just need to be allowed to hire them
again.
We're running up on
close to, been going for about two hours.
So
um,
uh,
and
I mean,
we can pick this up.
at a later date and I'm sure we'll have a lot to talk about.
So,
um,
yeah,
you guys happy with a,
happy the conversation we've had so far?
No,
we didn't fix everything.
There's still more to do,
but it's a good start.
Yeah,
bastards.
Both of you.
All right.
I'll,
um,
I'll,
um,
I'll make sure to promote,
um,
your,
your Twitter account,
uh,
Sean like I did last time.
And do you
even want me to point people to your Twitter account, Stormy?
Yeah, sure. Absolutely.
All right.
We'll do that because you've been having
some banger threads lately. I mean, some ones
that, you know someone's putting out a good thread
when people either
love it or hate it.
And, yeah,
I think you've seen a lot of that lately.
So I'm going to sign off.
Thank you.
We'll pick this.
up at a later date.
Yep.
All right.
Take care.
No substack to show or anything else.
All right, y'all.
Take care of a good night.
Bye night.
