The Pete Quiñones Show - Episode 1142: What's Happening in Syria? w/ John Fieldhouse

Episode Date: December 5, 2024

54 MinutesPG-13Pete is joined again by John Fieldhouse, who discusses the recent events in Syria. John discusses who the participants are and who they might be a proxy for, as well as what we can learn while combat is going on.The Article ReferencedPete and Thomas777 'At the Movies'Support Pete on His WebsitePete's PatreonPete's Substack Pete's SubscribestarPete's GUMROADPete's VenmoPete's Buy Me a CoffeePete on FacebookPete on Twitter Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-pete-quinones-show--6071361/support.

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to freeman beyond the wall.com forward slash support and do it there. Thank you. I want to welcome everyone back to the Pekingiano show. John Fieldhouse is back. What's going on, John? How are you doing? Doing well, sir. All right. Wanted to have you on because I haven't really had a chance to talk on the show, on the official show about Syria. We talked about it a little bit on the new Inquisition show that I'm doing with Stormy and Astral and Thomas and Jay Burden and DE is going to be in there. But I wanted to dedicate something to this and thought I'd have Yon to talk about it. So, I mean, I know you have to be up on Syria.

You probably know everything about probably up. to date on Obama and Syria, you know, that whole time, everything that went on there, huh? Sorry. Not by any stretch of the imagination, but I've got a good, I think, grasp of what's publicly available, which is definitely not the whole picture. Yeah, yeah, I'm not saying that you, even if you did know anything that you couldn't say, I wouldn't try to get that out of you. But so this one is looking like...

As you said in your text this morning, it's part two of the moderate rebels. What do you mean by that? During the late Obama years, which ended more or less with Trump taking office, we used to hear so much about the moderate rebels, the guys who were neither the secular bathists, which are definitely the enemies of the United States and Israel or ISIS, other groups that we pretended that, you know, the media and John McCain notoriously would call the moderate rebels, which I will remind everybody, there's no such thing. I mean, me and you were moderate rebels because we have podcasts. People overthrowing their government through armed force are not moderates in any sense

of the word. Yeah, no, 100%. So you sent over this article from the Sufong Center, and it's from two days ago. We're recording this on the fourth. This is from the second. And I guess it's just a short overview of what's going on there. So I guess I can start reading it and just jump in when you want to say something here. Yeah. Because it's pretty short. Go ahead. Yeah.

Okay. For a background, this is the Sufant Center. This is from the center run by Ali Sufant. He was famous because if you've watched any documentary or fictionalized history, film, about 9-11. He was the ethnic Arab American FBI agent operating at a New York City who was supposedly about to break open the whole 9-11 case right before it happened, except the CIA cut him out, which based upon what's publicly available, that seems more or less true. Anyways, he did some stuff throughout the war and terror. He was one of the FBI agents deployed

to Afghanistan during the initial fighting. I believe he was in Iraq. I'm not mistaken, he's the same guy who interviewed Saddam Hussein. But don't quote me on that. And again, after retired, he does a think tank that does publicly available intel briefs. And this is one that you're linking to right there, is one basically about the fighting that kicked off like three or four days ago, as it were. Okay. All right. So this is titled Rebel Groups Overrun Aleppo, Reigniting Syrian Civil War and Challenging Assad.

There's some bullet points before we jump in, and if you want to comment on these and go right ahead. An alliance of rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Ham, HTS from now on, has successfully captured Aleppo, Syria's large a city in a substantive and unexpected shift in Syria's civil war dynamics. Yeah, I was just going to say I want the reader to be aware that he mentions every other group he mentions. He says explicitly what foreign powers and what factions within Syria, they're affiliated with, but I don't think he ever mentions who HTS is affiliated, which to me has a red flag. Okay. So who is, who's HTS associated with? That I obviously I don't know and I'm not an investigator and if I knew that information I couldn't be on the show but it appears to be that they are that Salafas faction that was a breakoff of Al-Qaeda and they broke off from that group that became ISIS so they weren't ISIS proper but essentially their cousins and they're that group that in some way apparently has had back channels with the U.S. and or Israel which is not to say that they're run by the U.S. or Israel but they're definitely receiving.

I think it's fair to say aid and encouragement from our government or the state of Israel. Okay. In response to the rival offensive, Syrian government forces have pulled back from several positions across Aleppo and are reportedly awaiting reinforcements to launch a counteroffensive against the insurgents in the city. Have you heard about Russian air strikes on HTS in Aleppo? Yeah. So there have, I have seen multiple sources. that they're both Russian and Syrian Air Force strikes.

Apparently, they have some sort of integrated chain of command for there that have made strikes against Aleppo, the area, and other places in the country where rebels are fighting. And there's a recurring theme that Russia has problems because a huge amount of their forces have been diverted from Syria to fight in Ukraine. So essentially, I think it's fair to say that Thomas's thesis that this is indirectly a move against,

both Hezbollah and in order to aid forces, or aid Israel in their fight as well as a move to weaken Russia once again vis-a-vis Ukraine. I think that's completely valid. Throughout parts of northwestern Syria, the rebels have started setting up and building upon already established proto-governance structures, indicating their ambition to govern and maintain control. Two big things here. how would you know that? You know, when you have a dynamic military operation in under a week,

you're going to tell me that you're engaged in building governments, proto-governance. Number one, that's probably true. Number two, that's the kind of thing that Hezbollah has done, that I think all Western counterinsurgency has looked at and said, you know, essentially us and or our proxies need to do. So that's, you know, a reasonable thing for people who are in the governments that representists would do. But again, how would you know?

You have a dynamic, fluid, chaotic situation on a battlefield, and how would you know, even if that's happening directly, you probably wouldn't see it happen as an intelligence official from a third party country. You said two things there was, did you cover both of them or was there another one? Oh, the issue of number one that I think this is something where apparently they've copied from Hezbollah.

as a counterpoint, you know, taking that part of the strategy. But again, the other one is, how would we know? Sure. Okay. Right. Next ball. Last bullet point. The conflict in Syria epitomizes the importance of focusing on both state and non-state actors in an era of great power competition with various sub-state armed groups active in the country and numerous countries jockeying for position and seeking to back their respective proxies and clients. Why did I immediately think of fourth generation warfare when I was reading this? Well, that's essentially what it would be an example of that. But that's a really cool summary sentence right there because that sort of is what you would have as a thesis statement on a PhD thesis when you're talking about a war after the fact.

So I'm not saying there's anything directly nefarious or untoward happening here. I am absolutely not suggesting that. But this reads a lot like people reading things into this that you would not know that soon in the fight. Let's read a little bit of this article then. Stop me whenever. An alliance of Syrian rebel groups launched a significant offensive in Aleppo on Wednesday, November 27th, marking a dramatic escalation in the Syrian Civil War, which has raged since 2011, but gone through long stretches of semi-dormancy at times in certain parts of the country, particularly over the last several years.

The offensive led by HTS, Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, a U.S. designation foreign terrorist organization with historic ties to al-Qaeda since renounced, is led by Abu Muhammad Al-Jalani, who was also at the helm of the group's predecessor, Jabhat al-Nusra, Al-Nusra Front, and then Jabat Fata-L-Hal-Sul-Hu-Sah.

Sharm front for the conquest of Syria, the Levant. Al-Jolani first swore Bayat to then al-Qaeda leader. I'm an Al-Zawahiri. I've said that so many times. I've said that name so many times when I was recording with Scott Horton. How am I stumbling over this? I'm in Al-Zawahiri back in April 2013 before a public fallout and separation four years later. The original group, Al-Nusra, was progeny of the split that went on to produce the Islamic State under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

HTS functions as part of a broader coalition called the Military Operations Command, which was proclaimed in response to alleged escalating attacks by the Syrian army and Iranian-backed militias. Elements of the rebel coalition, also backed by Turkey, which provides funding, and equips the rebels to keep pressure on the Assad regime. The rebels' successful entry into Aleppo represents the first such breakthrough since Bashar al-Assad's Syrian government retook the city in 2016. The offensive scope has also seen numerous villages in Idlib and Aleppo province fall to the forces as the rebels are pushing south to Hamah, Syria's fourth largest city.

I do want the reader to notice all of a sudden that, you know, secession is a good thing in their worldview all of a sudden. I also would like to, yeah, all right, that's funny. I would like to say that there are reports right now from multiple, from a couple sources, but not 100%. I wouldn't be, say, I wouldn't feel confident saying 100% that they have reached Hamas and they are inside the city. I've heard that today.

Again, a battlefield is fluid, dynamic, chaotic, so you're not going to get a perfect report until after the fact, if ever. Airgrid, operator of Ireland's electricity grid, is powering up the northwest. We're planning to upgrade the electricity grid in your area, and your input and local knowledge are vital in shaping these plans. Our consultation closes on the 25th of November. Have your say online or in person So together we can create a more reliable, sustainable electricity supply for your community

Find out more at airgrid.i.4 slash northwest Employers rewarding your staff Why choose between a shop voucher or a spend anywhere card When with options card you can have both With options card your team gets the best of both worlds They can spend with Ireland's favourite retailers Or choose a spend anywhere card It's simple to buy and easy to manage.

There are no hidden fees, it's easy to use and totally flexible. They can even re-gift or donate to a good cause. Make your awards more rewarding. Visit optionscar.I.E. Today. Airgrid, operator of Ireland's electricity grid is powering up the northwest. We're planning to upgrade the electricity grid in your area and your input and local knowledge are vital in shaping these plans. Our consultation closes on the 24th.

5th of November. Have your say, online, or in person. So together, we can create a more reliable, sustainable electricity supply for your community. Find out more at airgrid.i.4 slash northwest. In response to the rebel offensive, Syrian government forces have pulled back from several positions across Aleppo and are reportedly awaiting reinforcements to launch a counteroffensive against the insurgents in the city. Meanwhile, Syrian and Russian forces have conducted limited air strikes on targets in Aleppo in surrounding areas, which they claim have been captured by terrorist groups. However, the scope of these air strikes has remained narrow. Russia's relatively limited involvement in Syria so far, and its call to restore order, reflect the fact that Moscow has largely shifted its focus to the war in Ukraine, leaving it with insufficient will and capability.

in Syria to effectively counter the rebel advance. Syria's other key ally, Iran, and its extensive network of proxy groups have also seen their priorities shift over the past two years. The October 7th Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent war between Israel and Hezbollah have diverted Iranian attention and resources away to Lebanon and Israel. Lebanese Hezbollah, a critical Iran-back group in Syria's conflict and ally, to the Assad government, has increasingly focused on its operations in Lebanon, where it has engaged in strikes against Israel. Meanwhile, Tehran has recalibrated its focus toward the escalating conflict with Israel, equally impacting its involvement in Syria.

Allies of the Assad regime, including Iranian-backed Iraqi, Afghan, and Pakistani Shia groups are, however, present on the ground to some extent. The popular mobilization forces and Iranian-backed Iraqi militia has, for example, reportedly been deployed in the streets around Damascus. I found this part interesting because there aren't that many Pakistani Shia groups. Afghan Shias are mostly the Hazaras, which are an ethnically distinct group. They're part Bengal. We know who they are because they have slanted eyes. And the popular mobilization forces are all those. militias that were sanctioned, Iraqi militias that were sanctioned and through a structure,

sort of like the National Guard Bureau, they were integrated as auxiliaries of the Iraqi army during the war against ISIS. So I'm not accusing them of lying here so much as this does not sound plausible. Okay. The unexpected success of the operation is caught both analysts and Syrian government forces off guard with reports in indicating that government troops have withdrawn largely from Aleppo and are suffering losses in surrounding areas. This development signals a significant shift in the dynamics of the conflict and raises questions about the stability of territory controlled by the Assad regime and the capabilities of its most prominent allies, Russia and Iran, with Moscow and Tehran, embroiled in other conflicts, namely Ukraine for the former and Gaza, Lebanon, and the broader Middle East for the latter.

The rebel forces have been able to take over nearly the entire city of Aleppo, a feat that did not accomplish at the height of their power there in 2015. Throughout parts of northwestern Syria, the rebels have started setting up and building upon already established proto-governance structures indicating their ambition to govern and maintain control. You already commented on that. Some of these efforts date back years with sophisticated attempts. to subsidize the cost of food and stabilize the banking and energy sectors in the areas under HTS control. So basically when they say that, they're talking about something that's been going on for a while, very much like the Taliban does in Afghanistan, where they basically become the government in

certain areas. Exactly. And like I said, that's something that Hezbollah is known for, especially. They take over or would largely fill governance roles at a time when the Lebanese state was largely hollow, wasn't doing its job. And not only did they do the things that in a western state we would think of, they would also very often run hospitals that were largely done for charity. They would run news stations where obviously they controlled the news output, but they would be the main TV provider in certain areas in, you know, social welfare things. And

Hesbullah was known for doing things beyond just 12 or Shiites. They would do things for like Christians and other groups, because again, in this kind of a war, humanitarianism is a weapon as much as, you know, the AK. The Kurdish YPG militia, which also has expanded its presence during the Aleppo offensive, has clashed with some rebel forces. According to the Syrian human rights observation, 277 people have been killed in the Northwestern Syria offensive so far. Yeah, and we talked before we were recording, Turkey's main interest in the area,

other than just not having civil war break across, you know, go across this border as well as not having a unified Syria that could attack them, is there very much concerned about the Kurdish separatist groups because that mountain is part of, it's that north-eastern Syria that extends into Iraq, Iran, as well as up into Turkey,

that mountainous area is historically what was Kurdistan. and that ethnically distinct group, all those countries are concerned about those people de facto seceding, which is why Turkey in the recent past has sent troops into Iraq, even when the U.S. forces were there, has sent forces into Syria, has been willing to fight those groups that even when the Syrian government had, you know, essentially had a daint with those groups. The Assad regime has faced significant challenges in recent. Oh, and also it says 277 people have been killed. There's no, I mean, that is a guesstimate at best.

Yeah, your initial reports are always wrong in terms of casualty. So maybe, I mean, maybe there was two, maybe there was two million. How would I know? Yeah. Even in covering the Spanish Civil War, there were, like, reports of like a thousand in like, a thousand in like, oh, there's a thousand in this unmarked. rave over there, and then they finally get to dig it up, and there's 12 people in there. Yeah, and even a best case scenario, initial reports, fog of war, it's a vague guess. Yeah.

The Assad regime has faced significant challenges in recent years, including a struggling economy and increasing geopolitical isolation. Do we know that their economy has been struggling? I mean, we hear that Russia's economy is struggling since the sanctions went into play, and that's bullshit until very recently. Yeah, it's probably just because of their geographic location, the fact they just got out of civil war and that they're, you know, mostly isolated by American allies on different sides, not to mention part of their country is still occupied by U.S. forces. So I imagine their economy is suffering even in the best case scenario, but how bad, who knows? Employers, rewarding your staff?

Why choose between a shelf voucher or a spend anywhere card when with options card you can have both. options card, your team gets the best of both worlds. They can spend with Ireland's favourite retailers or choose a spend anywhere card. It's simple to buy and easy to manage. There are no hidden fees, it's easy to use and totally flexible. They can even re-gift or donate to a good cause. Make your awards more rewarding. Visit optionscar.i.e. today. Airgrid, operator of Ireland's electricity grid is powering up the northwest. We're planning to upgrade the electricity grid in your and your input and local knowledge are vital in shaping these plans. Our consultation closes on the 25th of November.

Have your say, online or in person. So together we can create a more reliable, sustainable electricity supply for your community. Find out more at airgrid.i.4.Northwest. Employers, did you know, you can now reward you and your staff with up to 1,500 euro and gift cards annually, completely tax-free, and even better. You can spread it over five different occasions. Now's the perfect time to try OptionsCard. OptionsCard is Ireland's brand new multi-choice employee gift card packed with unique features that your staff will love. It's simple to buy, easy to manage, and best of all, there are no extra fees or hidden catches.

Visit OptionsCard.compti.e. today. This next sentence is something. Asad in his inner circle have turned Syria into an end. narco state, fueling the Caphtagon epidemic throughout the region and relying on the drug trade as an economic lifeline. Yeah, I try to see what I could find on that. I have no idea what Captagon is. I found nothing on the drug trade in particular.

As far as them relying on as an economic lifeline, I mean, that's completely plausible, but I haven't found any good sources on this one way or the other. So it's the kind of thing. Go ahead. Isn't Captagon that stuff that was supposed to like turn people into super like super soldiers? Yeah, I think that was from Marvel Comics and maybe it was, but I don't know. If so, they're making the world a better place. Yeah, it's like supposed to be for ADD, but it's apparently they say, oh, if soldiers take it in a,

And high enough, and they say, they were saying this about Hamas after October 7th. They were all hopped up on, uh, on this what is what is it called phenoth, phenothelene, something like that. And it's supposed to be some kind of, uh, anphetamine that, uh, just causes, you know, turns people into blind, it gives them a blind rage kind of thing. That. So far, you know, no downsides identify. Seriously, I don't know.

It's, it's the kind of thing you would get an intelligence agency, the report on that they may or may not know that they're going to give you a vague idea because the other guys are keeping secret. But I found nothing on this that was credible from any position. There is speculation that Damascus's focus on the solicit trade has distracted it from other pressing issues, including the readiness of its military forces and secret security services, which suffer from low morale and high levels of corruption. I immediately just thought that the Branch Divideans that was like the main thing that got the army that they that they were able to prove a drug nexus be quote unquote prove a drug nexus and that's how they were able to get um

the what they used from Fort Hood for free instead of having to pay for it yeah um yeah it's it's all just everything hates drug you know everyone hates um drug dealers so um And they just paying them as drug dealers, and that's just another thing to add to the pile. Yeah, as far as, you know, low morale, they're essentially functioning as an occupying force in their own country. So, yeah, low morale is part of it. Corruption, it's a Middle Eastern security force. They're all corrupt. But I'm not anti-Arab, but understand that what we would think of as horrible, closed, corrupt mafia systems,

Arabs call that society. So are they corrupt? By our standards, yes. But, you know, so is everything else in this part of the world, except for Israel, which has its own problems. The recent successful rebel offensive in Aleppo underscores the ongoing vulnerabilities of Assad's government. Despite its heavy reliance on external support, particularly from Iran and Russia, Assad's

forces remain weak with these allies failing to. to provide the decisive backing needed to counter the opposition's advances. Again, this just sounds like what they've been saying about Russia all along. Russia's falling apart. Russia, they're running out of ammunition. I mean, this just sounds like the typical propaganda you would get from one side. Yeah, it's also the kind of thing you would say regardless when, you know, enemy surprises you to any extent.

This isn't so much in-depth intelligence, you know, inside of. this is like a no-shit, basic, you know, summary of what happens when you're attacked. Compounding Assad's difficulties is a deteriorating relationship between Damascus and Tehran, exacerbated by Assad's recent diplomatic outreach to the Gulf states. Efforts to normalize relations have yielded little tangible progress further straining Syria's alliances. Despite these challenges, the regime should have anticipated such developments. The Aleppo offensive by rebel forces has apparently been planned, had been planned from mid-October initially, but was delayed when Turkey intervened, altering the timeline and dynamics of the conflict. This shift in strategy suggests that the Assad regime's precarious position may be even more fragile than previously thought.

Yeah, some of those things. Number one, their outreach to the Gulf states, or Iran has had outreach to the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia. So is that something that, you know, has created a cleavage between Tehran and Damascus? Maybe, but I don't see why it should, since Tehran's doing the exact same thing and on purpose. As far as the planning of an operation in mid-October, I mean, realistically, that's sort of like the minimum amount of time you would need to plan something of this type. So, you know, that's, again, less intelligence insight as sort of like, you know, a basic statement of how quickly you could do something. And by saying that Turkey intervened, that again, it gets back to that issue of sort of showing how Turkey and NATO, because

again, Turkey is a member of NATO, how they seem to directly play a role in when they can and cannot operate, which to me is the most important thing said so far. The implications are vast. The largely stagnant battle lines in Syria have shifted dramatically over the course of four days. Additionally, the Syrian Civil War, which became the golden opportunity for Sunni extremists to fill the power vacuum, culminating in the Declaration of the Islamic State Caliphate in June 2014, renders an objective assessment of the rebels and their goals incredibly important. While there are signs that minorities and non-Sunnis will be respected by even extreme elements of the rebels such as HTS, terrorist organizations' participation in the offensive causes some alarm. What signs? What signs would you see in the middle of an attack? And again, dynamic, fluid, and chaotic. What indication is there of that?

I mean, again, Hezbollah is known for exercising, and for that matter, all the Iranian proxy groups are known for exercising a great deal of discipline over their forces to the point that they stop attacking groups that are declared non-targets by whatever the command authority, you know, famously during some of the fighting. in Iraq, Shiite groups that were explicitly connected to Iran would simply stop attacking Americans in the Iraqi government at certain points in order to focus on Sunni groups. So it seems almost as if they're reading the best part of Iranian proxy discipline into this group, which, again,

how would you know that at this point? The Uyghur-led Turkestan Islamic Party, for example, has said it was involved in the insurgent offensive, a development sure to cause concern in Beijing. To safeguard legitimacy and prevent atrocities, it will be crucial for the rebel forces to expunge radical elements. Additionally, the rebel forces will likely see a significant counteroffensive. In the earlier years of the Civil War, a common tactic by Assad forces was to withdraw, reinforce their position, and then counterattack. Yeah, the part where they said there's evidence of Chinese Uyghurs there, people from Chinese Turkestan, which is, you know, the far western part of the PRC that is not ethnically Chinese. And there's like four different countries that have to move through in order to get there.

A bunch of those countries which are effectively controlled by Iran. Like, how would that happen? That's a very interesting case. And again, I'm not saying they're lying. it's like how would you know this other than the initial reports and this seems to be suggesting it's like every group that hates the United States less than their enemies is suddenly there which is the most interesting part said so or one of the most interesting details said I think maybe the Uyghurs got there the same way they made it to Afghanistan to train with the CIA in the

summer of 2001. Yeah, well, at least, you know, that part of Afghanistan borders, China in some places, you know? Yeah, yeah, yeah. There's no borders there. That's sort of like when Haitians show up at the Rio Grande, it's like, you know, it takes some doing to put Haitians on the Rio Grande. Yeah, they're not good swimmers.

All right, so, all right. Implications extend beyond Syria. The country is a key transshipment point for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Cuds Force, to produce weapons that are funneled to Hezbollah in Lebanon. With the ceasefire deal between Lebanon and Israel seemingly again in question with Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah will likely continue to rely on this now potentially interrupted supply chain. We now have a motive for why you would want this attack. Right, there you go.

According to Channel 12, Israeli intelligence officials believe that Iranian infrastructure in Syria has been negatively impacted by the rebel forces. That's sort of a no-shit statement. Yes. There's a war there, so it's really hard to move there. Okay. Cool intelligence. Tell me something more. Additionally, while the Assad regime has allowed Iran and its proxies to operate within Syria, it has been careful to not provoke Israel directly.

depending on how the situation evolves and whether Hezbollah acts emboldened in Syria, this may change Israeli perception of the threat emanating from Syria. Yeah, and not to mention Israel's occupying the Golan Heights has claimed that territory and a large part of the population there, it's not really clear if they're citizens of Israel or Syria now. To include a bunch of these people are Alawites, you know, people from the Assad's extended ethno-sictarian group. So yeah, yeah, this this whole area is not, you know, foreign to Israel in terms of their strategic planning. Well, yeah, and Syria is another one of those places that has multiple, multiple groups, multiple ethnic and religious groups, just like Lebanon. Yeah, and because again, Lebanon was originally part of Syria. The French carved it out in order to create an explicitly Christian state. Unfortunately, Christians do not make babies like Muslims.

So that's become an issue But yeah, it's It has those issues And a big part of what the Assad regime is done Is yeah, they're secular But they're sort of secular more in the American than the European sense And since that You know, there's a default religious assumption that the state represents

As opposed to the state being Like contemporary America Aggressive or harmful or opposition To a religious establishment if that makes sense. The conflict in Syria epitomizes the importance of both state and non-state actors in an era of great power competition with various sub-state armed groups active in the country and numerous countries jockeying for position and seeking to back their respective proxies and clients.

And that's probably one of the most important things for people to understand about Syria. Yeah. And that's a good example of something that's evergreen from this, right? And again, it's not so much great intelligence is a good summary of the world. The more attention and resources that Russia and Iran need to dedicate to Syria, the less both countries will be able to focus on other pressing issues more directly related to their respective national interests. One immediate loser could be a Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar,

who receives backing from the Kremlin to prop up his fiefdom. why would they meant why is he mentioned here there's no there there's no reason to mention him here this is just something that's inserted for a reason yeah well again obviously because this is made by an american so it has an american interest the government that you know ostensibly claims to be ours and uh it's it's presented from an american strategic interest perspective and its allies perspective So that's what it tells us. And again, it's one more example of how this offensive in Syria, hopefully, from the U.S. perspective, hopefully will sever support from a number of actors in both Europe and the Middle East that the United States is opposed to.

One immediate loser could be Libya and, I got that. In the near term, Moscow may lean more on private military and security contractors as a temporary state. stopgap to fill emerging power vacuums. The incoming Trump administration will have a lot on its foreign policy agenda early on, with Syria yet another complex situation that Washington will need to address with urgency. To be sure, myriad other countries, Turkey, Israel, Russia, Iran, and several Gulf nations will also be maneuvering in response to shifting geopolitical dynamics within Syria and the broader region, which leads me to the question and I wanted to ask you is a lot of people have been saying that

basically what the regime in charge is trying to do is is trying to leave, it's purposely trying to leave Trump with the biggest possible foreign policy mess that they can, which would, what, in my opinion, I mean, this is just my uneducated opinion, would divert what he wants to do domestically. Yeah. Which would hurt them more. Yeah. I mean,

Daryl Cooper said a few weeks ago when Biden announced that they're going to be allowed to use American and British long range arms to strike inside Russia. He goes, you know, historically during the lame duck period, presidential administrations tried to do as little as possible, tried to maintain the status quo.

And while preparing the successor of either party for the best case scenario to take, you know, the helm and to deal with things. One second. And whereas what we have right now is, looks explicitly like, you know, intentional sabotage, which the Morgoth said it about a week ago. It's the American system means that the outgoing lame duck president has two months to basically start World War III and blow up the world just despite, you know, orange Hitler man coming in. And that's, yeah, that's, I think, more or less what we happened. Number one, it could divert from any kind of domestic agenda. It also hurts the general foreign agenda. The United States, or excuse me, Trump has said explicitly,

while people accuse him of being, you know, Putin's stooge, is he said explicitly that he wants the war to end so that people stopped dying in a war that didn't have to happen, which is my perspective. I'm a hard neutral in the Ukraine war, which is I think lots of good people are dying over something because American politicians decided that, you know, they were going to fight into the last Russian and last Ukrainian. So, yeah, it diverts American, domestic, and foreign policy, and it seems like pure malice as if they don't have to live in this world in the future.

yeah well yeah if you're gonna start if your intention is to start war war three considering what's on the table um it seems to me you either have a backup plan like you're going to go to another planet live underground or you're just willing to die yeah well i don't think Elon is going to fly them to another planet yeah well i hope not um what what's your opinion on some people are saying that you know trump has said he wants to and the Ukraine wars all ended on day one. Well, that's not going to happen. It's not going to happen.

Okay, since the beginning, American politicians seem to operate on the assumption that there can be a perfectly peaceful conditions. I've heard both American and Russian politicians say that Ukraine should be completely demilitarized. And I remind everybody, Ukraine sits in the middle of the central Eurasian plane. it's essentially a large flat area, which means that it's swapped hands back and forth from invading armies forever, basically, which it's always going to be an armed place. There's always going to be some kind of detente in which Ukraine, whether it's part of Greater Russia or part of something like the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth or part of the Habsburg Empire, it's always going to be a place, which it's part of one side or another. It's probably not going to be purely independent, and it's going to be an armed camp. So, yeah, is he going to end the day one?

I don't think it's possible. I think hopefully he can back things off. Hopefully he can reach some kind of detente in which a solution, which I'm not going to say, it's going to be good enough for all sides, but something that, you know, at least keeps us from going to World War III over this place for another generation, and hopefully doesn't destroy the entirety of the population of that area. What do I think Trump's going to do? I think Trump understands that World War III is bad for business.

You know, blowing up the world is pretty bad for business. Sending Americans to die on the other side of the world is pretty bad for business. Blowing up Europe, pretty bad for business. So I think he's focused on trying to find a solution. Do I think he's capable of finding one? I think he's more capable than anybody in the American government. I don't know the last couple decades. I hope he does.

I think day one, he's probably going to be making phone calls and trying to see what he can accomplish. What is he going to do? I don't know. I know from Zelensky's latest interviews on British TV, he seems to be hedging and acknowledging that Ukraine is probably not going to get large amounts of its territory back while insisting they should have fall into the NATO umbrella,

which again, I remind you, NATO, you can't. not join NATO if you have territorial disputes because you're essentially trying to create war where all those countries are obligated to go war on your behalf. So I think Zelensky is hedging his bets. He's acknowledging he's not going to regain all that territory and is trying to come to grips with reality as it is. Well, again, he's essentially got to placate his own internal hardliners so they don't assassinate him in the meantime. So what do you make of people like Sebastian Gorka, who's been named Senior Director for Counterterrorism, also deputy assistant to the president, who was basically come out with some of the most insane

rhetoric about Putin being a thug and we're going to take care of him. I'm very concerned. Again, Trump is still better than Kamala. You know, Trump did not want to import infinity Haitians in our neighborhoods. So he was the right and good choice. I'm very concerned with all those things. I'm not a pacifist by any stretch of the imagination. I'm under no illusion that Putin is somehow a good guy

has concerns America. I'm under no illusion that he's concerned with anything beyond his national history interests concerning America. But I also think we shouldn't try to piss off the bear. We shouldn't get into a fight we don't need to have. One of my good rules for life that I tell people's, don't pick a fight with anybody who's meaner or crazier than you. And the Russians are probably meaner and crazier than you. Um, so yeah, I'm very concerned. I hope. I hope Trump is aware

of the issue. I hope he doesn't create another John Bolton situation in which he gets a guy that he was hoping would be, you know, intimidating to everybody, but instead derails his own administration. So I'm concerned, but, um, I haven't lost hope. Well, the when it comes to Putin, you get the idea, though, that as long as you don't poke the bear, he's just going to be your typical Russian ruler who, you know, they'll play intelligence games. They'll be spying. There'll be all sorts of things. But this isn't a guy who wants, I don't think he wants, strife,

with his or any kind of conflict with his neighbors, much less us. I think he's just, you know, he's, he wants to know what we know, what we know, just like we want to know what, he wants to know what we're doing, just like we want to know what he is doing. I think Putin is somebody as a security realist, he's, you know, one of those security bureaucratic professionals, at least he was by career in the former Soviet Union, who is. is eternally wary of threats internally and externally against this state and is always concerned about that. But that same awareness or concern provides the ability to see that some people can be, if

not allies, at least neutral parties that you can deal with in a non-adversarial circumstance. So America has this weird idea, at least the government zeitgeist, has this weird idea that the world is divided into people who are completely in your camp and people who are enemies. And again, I know one interpretation of the friend enemy distinction of Schmidt. And again, unfortunately, my German is horrible, so I don't remember the exact quote. Verbatim is that a friend and enemy distinction should probably be understood more as like friend outsider. where obviously enemies are outsiders, but there's also neutral parties that you're wary toward them, but you engage with them. And you're not necessarily wishing to destroy them because, you know, you have some sort of detente.

You're trying to deal with them in a non-combative manner. So I think Putin is somebody who understands that he or somebody who wants a world in which the other powers, especially in the United States, he wishes he had a non-directly adversarial relationship with a country that, you know, wasn't actively trying to destroy him and destroy his country's, you know, administration. So what does that mean? I think he's somebody that I wish we had dealt with. And again, I'm not under any illusion of him being a good guy, but by treating him as an enemy, we've created, you know, a self-fulfilling prophecy, which is,

destroyed a large part of the population of Ukraine. I guess another question I would ask is Trump picked this Pete Hegseth guy for, you know, for SACDF. And obviously we would have no idea. We have, I mean, I don't have any idea what he would do. Probably just be an order taker. I don't know. That's the weird thing is a lot of people pointed out this is a really weird choice.

He's a guy who was a. the major lieutenant colonel, he's still in the Army Reserves, but he's not in a troop unit, which essentially means he's in a kind of unit where he's not going to drill regularly. He's not going to do his one week in a month. He's not going to get his retirement points, but at any point, he can be assigned to a unit and deployed after some kind of a train-up, which is a really weird kind of status to have at that point in his military career. He's somebody who's obviously been a troop leader and has a lot of interesting development in his military career, Like nothing that would suggest making him the secretary of defense.

And I'm not opposed to him per se, but it's also sort of like, why would you pick him? Not saying he's a bad choice so much as like, why is he a choice? You know, it's such a weird person to choose. And I know the view and whatnot made the point that, hey, he's just the backup weekend Fox and Friends hosts. It's like, well, he was a military professional, but he's not quite the military professional that you would choose to be in charge of your entire security establishment. I've written a book, and I've done a lot of scholarship, but absolutely nobody in this world is going to put me in charge of the military establishment.

It's sort of like he's a great guy, but why would you pick him? Well, news has come out in the last 24 hours that there's a consideration that Trump, because of things with Heggseth's personal life, but maybe just more because of, of all the scuttle butt about him that he could possibly be replaced with Ron DeSantis. Yeah. Well, I like to say it's just, but I also think the worst thing that could happen is taking the Santos out of Florida because he's the one who's kept that as a solid, you know, anchor state for the Republican Party. And he's done a lot, you know, on behalf of our side. Yeah, he's pro-Zionist. and he's done some issues with, you know, anti-Semitism, Semitic speech legislation, which I really don't like.

But he's done a lot of things for our side that I really appreciate. And I think he would be a better executive than Trump. Obviously, he wasn't going to get elected. And I think the worst thing to do would be take him out of Florida where he's actually doing real good work where he's going to be replaced by who. So as far as the rumors, I mean, rumors are rumors. I mean, me and you, we can start a rumor whether or not it's true or not as no bearing upon whether or not we can make people repeat what we're saying. So what do I think about those rumors? At this point, I don't know.

It's just a rumor. Yeah, I mean, it was just he has two years left on his term there, and then he's termed out. So he has to sit for four years. He could always get reelected, but he has to sit for four years. So I thought that was interesting. It's just that he, not knowing what Hegg Seth is is maybe more appealing than knowing what Desanus is. Yeah.

Like I said, it's just so weird. It's not like I see anything that would really disqualify him. Someone says, I don't see anything to qualify him. You're talking about Hegg Seth, right? Yeah. Like I said, I'm not saying he's bad. I'm just saying, what made you? pick him right there.

You know, being a good guy with the military record is, you know, a lot of people fall into that category, so why pick this guy? Yeah, it just seemed really, I remember I was sitting on the couch when that came across that he picked him. And I was, I had no idea who he was because I don't watch Fox. I mean, I don't watch any of the legacy media outlets. And then I started reading on him, and I was just like, this just seems like, you know, Some of these picks are, obviously he's picking some people who are eminently qualified,

but they're real trolls. And that just seemed like a real troll pick. I think it's a fair description. Yeah, it's like, why would you pick them? And it's like, if you're going to do that at the thumb the eye in the media or the other side, it's like, okay. But I feel like you could get somebody who's eminently qualified to thumb their eye in there. So I don't know.

Yeah. Well, I'm sick and tired of talking about. about the picks. I just wanted to get some information out there on Syria. Yeah. And, you know, it's one of those things that we just sit here and talk for three, four hours about Syria, but really, what do we know? Exactly. And that's part of why I said, let's go and do a read-through of the Sufuan report, because I can go and do a summary of all the groups, but it's, you know, a lot more is what's being said between the lines and what we can question from the reports. And the big things I would take away is like Thomas said, as right now,

strategically it only makes sense as a strike against both Hezbollah and Russia. And so much of the things that are being asserted by the groups that are operating in Syria, you know, these are the sort of like, how would you know that sort of statements, you know, that you're not going to see in the early stage of an operation? Yeah. All right, well, let's end it right there, man. I really appreciate it. You know, thanks for coming on and sharing what you know and what your opinions are on this because I think is somebody, somebody who's been in that area of the world, probably have a little bit of a better idea than somebody who hasn't. And I'm not putting down people who haven't. I think Scott Horton's probably, you know, one of the best guys in the world on all this stuff. everything. But you know, you're, you know, I have, I have easy access to you and Scott,

um, sometimes doesn't return my text anymore. So yeah, and I was going to say the fact that anti-war radio, Scott hasn't put anything out there yet, usually means that a, you know, a situation isn't clear and that the sources can't confirm anything at that point, um, which is part of why I was willing to come on here to talk about this. Yeah. And maybe that's exactly why Scott didn't return my last text because I'm like, hey, what the hell's going on with Syria? And he's just going to come back and be like, I don't know, man. I don't know. We got to wait. A lot of our guys I know who do security related stuff comments so little on Ukraine. And the point they made in all those cases is the part that's publicly available, even if it's on the media or through, you know, other sources,

is generally so bad that they wouldn't comment on Ukraine because it wasn't really clear what was happening. And that's very often why you will see guys who talk. about security stuff and they won't talk about an operation like this. All right. Well, I appreciate it. Always. Until the next time. Thank you.