The Pete Quiñones Show - Pete Reads 'Coup D'état' by Edward N. Luttwak - Part 7 w/ Christopher Sandbatch

Episode Date: August 24, 2024

66 MinutesPG-13Pete continues his reading of Edward N. Luttwak's "Coup D'état." In this episode he welcomes back Christopher Sandbatch to begin the reading of chapter 4.Sandbatch's SubstackSandbatch on TwitterAntelope Hill - Promo code "peteq" for 5% off - https://antelopehillpublishing.com/FoxnSons Coffee - Promo code "peter" for 18% off - https://www.foxnsons.com/Coup d'ÉtatPete and Thomas777 'At the Movies'Support Pete on His WebsitePete's PatreonPete's Substack Pete's SubscribestarPete's GUMROADPete's VenmoPete's Buy Me a CoffeePete on FacebookPete on TwitterBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-pete-quinones-show--6071361/support.

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Thank you so much. I want to welcome everyone to part seven of my reading of Kudate's Ha by Edward Lutweck. Christopher Sandbatch is back. How are you doing, Mr. Sandbatch? Pretty good. It's like, I'm like the, I've been this way since the beginning of time almost. I'm like the Warren Zvon of like the right wing ecosystem. He used to go to Letterman and like he would play a Letterman when Paul Schaefer would like

wanted the night off or something. You can't get anybody else. Go get Sandbache. That's funny. that I you were my specific choice for this all right so all right i'm going to start reading chapter four cut me off at any time to comment however you wish ready yeah yeah yeah all right chapter four the planning of the coup d'etat even barricades apparently a mechanical element of the uprising are of significance in reality above all as a moral force lev davidivitch bronstein

otherwise known as Leon Trotsky. He took the he took the name of the warden of the jail he was sent to in Siberia, if I remember correctly. Is that how that, like they, all of the old Bolsheviks had,

like, they had Twitter handles. You know, basically. Well, there was a reason for that. Yeah, I forgot Trotsky was one of them. I forgot, like, I forgot that wasn't his real name. All right. In the early morning of April 23rd, 1961, elements of the first Foreign Legion parachute regiment

seized the key points of the city of Algiers in the name of General Maurice Zesachalais, Andre Zeller, Edmund Jujad, and Raoul Salon. The four generals, because of their personal prestige and their position in the French hierarchy, quickly asserted their control over the local military command and started to extend their authority over all the armed forces in Algeria. At this time, De Gaulle's government was in the process of opening negotiations with the Algerian nationalists, and the generals were determined to replace him with a leader who would carry the war to a victorious conclusion. The French armed forces in Algeria were much more powerful than those stationed in France and Germany,

and the four generals were hopeful that, Once their allegiance was assured, they would find it easy to take effective control of the French government. After all, Dengal himself had... Wait, hold up. Now, okay, I was the only way to get to there. Now, because I feel like people might need to know what the hell is going on in France right now. Because this seems like awfully late in the timeline for, like, you know, quadrumverids of generals to be forming in the African provinces. And which is what's happening here, you know?

So, and it's, it's more important, this is France's form of, this is France's own personal struggle with, with decolonization that's playing out in front of us right now. And so what's happening is that home support in France because of really, because of the rise of an intellectual movement called the New Left and student, and largely driven in the back of student activism and whatever those influences are,

you can think of how you figure out what they are, yourself. But there's a massive anti-colonial movement afoot in, you know, France himself. And Charles de Gaulle is in charge of the country. But, you know, he's like, his return to power is incredibly dramatic. And we're about to hear that story. But just to let everybody know that's like things like this is a Western country in the 1960s. Yeah, France was really wild for a while. And this is their, this is their decolonization event that happens. If there's a movie, based on this. What's the name of it? I can't remember. Alps, like, Algeria or something. Oh, Battle of Algiers. That's it. Yeah. Yeah.

I'm writing that down. Well, okay. All right. Onward. After all, DeGal himself had come to power after a similar episode in May 158, and there seemed to be no obstacle to a successful second edition of the famous Today, My. When the four generals made their declaration over Algiers Radio, the first, 14th, and 18th colonial parachute regiments rallied to the coup. A few infantry units, some of the Marines, and much of the Air Force remained loyal to De Gaul, as in May 1958 they had remained loyal to the Fourth

Republic, but most of the armed forces in Algeria were a tenti stay. Wait and see is the attitude that usually favors a coup, and when General Henri de Poulli withdrew his headquarters in Algeria from Oran to Lemsen to avoid having to choose between fighting and joining the coup, he was objectively favoring the coup. The four generals seemed to be on the verge of victory. The determined Piednoy population of Algeria was 100% behind them. The powerful parachute units gave them a hard-hitting force of intervention, and the bulk of the armed forces were either for them or neutral. Even the forces loyal to DeGal's government did nothing to actively oppose the coup.

All right, so let's talk about what happened here real quick. So, like, what he's done here, so this is Lutvok, he's setting up the game conditions that he's going to be playing around with for the rest of this chapter. He's talking about this is the point in the flowchart. It's kind of jockey. He's trolling you a little bit that it comes so late in the actual, and so late in the actual book, you would think maybe the chapter where it says, so do you need to plan a coup is maybe the first chapter,

but no, it's the fourth one here. And this is the real, the two, the game situation, he's setting up here for us, is he's given us a classical setup. Okay, this is like, you know, imagine the chess game. He's describing a chess game for us. According to all previous and at the time,

according to all previous classical formulations of politics, you have enough information right here to determine whether or not you should do a coup. And so he's, and for the purposes of opening of his like opening barrage in this chapter, he's chosen to set out two, two separate instances of this like terribly classical again like i used phrase quadru quadruped

for reason like this has been described to us like given describes the down decline and follow of the roman empire these are roman conditions are in play okay and he's like setting up this idea so he's setting up this equivalence here so if you're these four generals and again the political conditions here are there's a movement at home in favor of decolonizing but the like the French hard right. And this is where like the actual new French hard right has kind of been born. But the the French hard right is most of the military structure. And the military structure in France is way bigger politically than most people probably think it is. And they have chosen, you know, a pro to take a pro imperial stance. And they've actually done a coup in Algeria.

So this is what's going on. They're trying and their play is this thing that happened in 1950. that brought Charles de Gaul back to power. You know, De Gaul had been in power in World War II, and he's out for a while, and then he gets brought back to power in this very similar, like, sort of situation, you know? And so the thing, so what, you know, Lufrake is here saying? He's like, he's like, okay, so these situations look similar enough

on their face that this coup probably should have worked, you know? All right, but, okay, now I'll butt back out. There's so much rugby on Sports Exeter from Sky, they've asked me to read the whole lad at the same speed I usually use for the legal bit at the end. Here goes. This winter sports extra is jampacked with rugby. For the first time we've got every Champions Cup match exclusively live,

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visit to Morocco. Maurice Popon, the head of the Paris police, was on vacation. Michel de Beix, the prime minister and chief firefighter of the regime, was ill, and DeGal himself was entertaining the visiting president of Senegal, Leopold Cedar Senor. Other ministers were on visits to Algiers itself and were promptly captured and held in confinement, together with other representatives of the president. Everything pointed to an early victory of the coup, and yet, a few days later, General Chalet

was being flown to Paris for eventual trial and imprisonment. Selen and the others were fleeing to the interior on their way to exile and capture, and the first Foreign Legion parachute regiment drove back to their barracks singing Edith Piaz, no, I regret nothing, though their officers were under arrest and their unit was to be to be disbanded. I had nothing to add to that except just like just pause for a minute and admire how metal that sentence is like that whole paragraph is. Like I can't stand when people get like get really pissy about France. I'm like France does the most insane shit imaginable.

Yeah, when people start talking about oh for yeah, I bought a French right I bought a French war rifle only dropped the ones. It's like, yeah, okay. Yeah, keep going. All right. Why did the coup fail? Perhaps the main reason was that the four generals had utterly neglected the political forces and had allowed the immediate power of the armed forces to obscure the somewhat less immediate, but ultimately decisive role that they could play. In the Gaulist coup of May 1958, the action in the military and the population of Algiers had been supported by the Gaulist infiltration, of the civil service and by the steady corrosion of the will of other political groups to oppose the dissolution of the fourth republic. This time, the generals had simply ignored the civilians.

Tagal went on television and asked for help from the population at large. Francet, Francais, A de Mois. Deborah, who followed, Debert, who followed him on the screen, was more specific. Go to the airports, convince the soldiers who are misled. He also started to arm a militia, from the Gaulist party. More important, the trade union organizations, the communists, CGT, the Christian Democrats, CFTC, and the force ovrier all rallied around the government, while most political parties did the same. The left-wing Catholic movement started to organize sit-down strikes among the national servicemen in Algeria, and in general, most organized forces of French society intervened and refused to accept the authority of the coup.

All right. So like here what's going on, wait, yeah, here what's going on is like he's introducing. We've, okay, so we've established this coup doesn't work. It's like, okay, but what was the tell? Okay. And he says, all right, this is a very like in this style of scholarship. This is really it does. It goes all the way back to Machia Valley. Actually, it's like, well, I'll tell you what. Here's what I didn't tell you already. And then surrenders another piece of information. And he goes, all right. So we know. know that there was infiltration on the part of the de Gaullist in 1958 and these four generals that just ignored that conclusion you know okay so the thing that we're meant to the thing that's meant to happen here is we're meant to be totally actually snapped out of what would be considered classical analysis at this point okay so this is like those rules don't work

anymore and this is actually this is one of the reasons Luke Vox been able to get away with being such a rock star is because he represents this turn in this field at a time when this is becoming of dominant paradigm across like any sort of like intellectual field, like the rise of game theory and uncertainty, the big thing of the, the biggest thing in the 20th century at this point say. Up until now, we've looked at, you know, we've looked at everything in terms of like some sort of Newtonian mechanical system, but we actually need a relative to Okay, you know, because, okay, these conditions are not objective. There's stuff, there is stuff that are what you call unknown unknowns is what, you know,

Luke Vox friend and compatriot Donald Rumsfeld would later call them. So he's introducing the unknown unknowns and he's telling us now. It's like, okay, well, actually this civilian population that is so, There's so much rugby on Sports Extra from Sky They've asked me to read the whole lad at the same speed I usually use for the legal bit at the end Here goes. This winter sports extra is jampacked with rugby

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New Sports Extra customers only. Standard Pressing applies after 12 months for their terms apply scoring so frequently. It does actually matter, and this is how. Okay. I'm sorry. No apology necessary. We need the, we need the commentary on this.

Yeah. It's heavy. This is a really heavy. And actually, what's really interesting is, you know, a lot of times you could, there's a tendency to want to read these books like they're, like they're just military manuals or something like this. But this is actually one of these chapters that you can translate over. directly into thought very well.

And this is sort of like one of these art of war style books that like investors will tell you is adaptable across domains because they're so methodologically flexible here. And he's doing a lot of really fancy stuff really fast and, you know, just teasing it out. It's helpful with some people. Yeah. Yep. The effect of this refusal was decisive.

The larger part of the weight and sea element in the armed forces stopped waiting and declared its support for de Gaul, and this was the end of the coup. We will only be able to avoid a repetition of the crucial era made by the generals if we can neutralize the political forces as effectively as the military ones. Immediate political power is always concentrated in the country's government, but in every country and under all political systems, there will be groups outside the government and even outside formal politics, which also have political power. There are source of strength can be their ability to influence particular groups of voters, as in democratic societies, or their control over certain organizations important to the country's political life.

Whether these groups, which we have called the political forces, are pressure groups, political parties, or other associations, does not greatly matter. What is of importance is their ability to participate in the formation of governments, and later, to influence the decision of those governments. the nature of the forces. Yeah, so the group, when he's talking here, again, we have to remember Lupeg as a neocon. So you're like listening,

this is like confessions of a neocon hitman is like really what this book is, you know, to one extent or another. And with Leupeg is writing here, he's talking really out of a British context. He's speaking to an American audience or he's, or he's addressing himself to Americans in some way. But really he's talking. about the British colonial experience in like it's very late stages, especially in the

Middle East. We're going to get it for just to set everything up. This is what we're really going to get into here. This is when he's referring to this aberative form of empire now that, you know, he was able to make classical pronouncements and classical allusions to the, you know, sort of French conditions because the French were doing these quadrum for it. things well into the late 20th century. Now we're going into a weirder place. And this is the space that is the British Empire, which has this kind of incredibly aberrant historical development complex that makes it a little more complicated.

And this is a very normal thing to do in this tradition. Habermas famously does it as well. And Habermas is one of these guys that's in with Luke back here. Havenas would always call it the special case of the British Empire. The nature of the force is important in the political life of a particular country will reflect the structure of its society and economy, and it will also depend on the particular context of decision-making. See Table 4-1 for an American example. If, for example, we were asked to list the most important forces in British political life, we could produce the

following rather conventional list. The major political parties, the regional parties, the major unions, the Confederation of British Industry, the senior civil service academic complex, the city its corporations and the press. It's worth pointing out here that when he uses this, he's falling back on the bridge. The British example is actually simpler than the American one. Like this is like Britain in 1961. Like these are relatively big categories. He's drawn some pretty large markup blankets.

He has the pit political parties. The major unions, the Confederation of British industry, these seem hokey now. But this is a time like what you go look at the American It was way more complicated. But this is a time when the Confederation of British industry is still a thing that exists, which is kind of interesting to know. Have you recently purchased a new vehicle from Frankenstein Volkswagen?

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and the gravity bar. My goodness is Christmas at the Guinness Storehouse. Book now at ginnestorehouse.com. Get the facts. Be Drinkaware. Visit drinkaware.com. There's so much rugby on sports extra from Sky. They've asked me to read the whole lad at the same speed I usually use for the legal bit at the end.

Here goes. This winter sports extra is jam-packed with rugby. For the first time we've been every Champions Cup match exclusively live, plus action from the URC, the Challenge Cup, and much more. That's the URC and all the best European Rugby all on the same place. more exclusively live tournaments than ever before on Sports Extra. Jampacked with rugby.

Phew, that is a lot of rugby. Get Sports Extra on Sky for 15 euro a month for 12 months. Search Sports Extra. New Sports Extra customers only. Standard Extra applies after 12 months for the terms apply. There's no such structure in the American system. But yeah, go ahead. What does he say here about the American system?

He says, officially in America, the president and White House staff, the Department of State, the Pentagon, the CIA, a supplier of information, the key congressional committees, unofficial, politicians with significant Jewish populations in these naturally follow a visible pro-Israel line on congressional voting and make appropriate speeches, pro-Zionist organizations of American Jewry, anti-Zionist organizations, including those with a Jewish identity. That's a great one. He's having to remember this book is fine.

having fun with it. He's pissed off at somebody. And the last one, he says, is thanks, tanks and lobbies with a special interest in Arab or Middle East studies. They usually identify with Arab views and seek a sympathetic hearing of Arab claims. Now, dude, you know this right here, okay, I just insert a sandbatchess note. That list that he just gets, like, you look at, people are always asking me with the core of sandbatches and that's, that last one is probably one of the key, if such a thing exists, Sandbatch's points, think tanks and lobbies, okay, with, you know, interest, special interests in Arab or Middle Eastern studies. I just went on the OGC podcast and did the history of Stanford University because that is one thing that's really unique to American political

systems is how important specific industry, specific universities and think tanks are in specific fields. So it makes us weird. There's like complicated subdomains and everything. But yeah, keep going. Back to the British. But if we were asked to isolate the groups that would matter in foreign policy decision about, say, the Middle East, we would come up with quite a different list. The two major British and part British oil companies, the Foreign Office Academic Arabist Group, British Defense Industry Exporters. Yeah. So, like, what he's talking about here? If you, like, just again, to reorient, there's a piece on my blog about this actually where I call it the only two.

empires that have ever mattered. It was about British and Russian machinations that were going on in the late 20th century in, you know, Iran mostly. But that's what he's talking about here. And this is where the, this is the origin of the American boom doodle in the Middle East is this is the two major British and part British, well, it's just talking about BP who is like running coups out of Iran. Okay. So like what's sort of happened. Yeah, what is what we're talking about here is like, okay, we had this list of things that everybody recognizes like in Juergen Habermas, you know, in his like, you know, classical little Franklin, you know, Frankfurt school, everybody's happy and we have a

Republic of Letters world. That first list of things is what can take is what's going on in the colonies in the nimbies in the nimbys mind. That's what it looks like. And the second list of people that gets left off of it. That's a group of people that is doing untold horrible shit. And he's also this is also in a sense you have to read this book as his resume to those groups asking them to hire him. So there's just, you know. I mean, everything that went down with Iran, I mean, you can go before BP went there.

I mean, the Reuters family was given mines with precious minerals there to watch over. And while they have an international press, while they own the international press. so they can basically control anything, but they're also controlling these these rich mineral deposits all over the Middle East, especially in Iran. That history is nuts.

Yeah, it's Lawrence of Arabia, but also like the Great Train robbery at the same time. All right. In a sophisticated society with its complex industrial and social structure, there are hundreds of organizations that, regardless of their primary purpose, also act as pressure groups and attempt to influence political decisions in a manner that serves their members' interests. These organizations will reflect in their divergent attitudes the diversity of a complex society.

In economically backward countries, however, the structure of society is simpler, and any conflict of interests, though just as strong, is played out in a much smaller arena and with fewer participants. In Sub-Saharan Africa, with few exceptions, religious groups are generally fragmented and apolitical, and where the local business community is still relatively small and weak, the major political forces are limited to a few groupings. Tribal and other ethnic groups? Trade unions, students and graduates associations, civil service officials and officers of the armed forces,

the activists of the ruling political, party it's kind of funny here he's low low key trolling again he's trolling a specific audience here he's like pointing out he's like actually these companies these countries you call economically backwards are the ones that more resemble the classical sphere that you're like always stammering on about it was just kind of funny also he's highlighting this these five things as african africans uh And it's basically every central American country as well. Yes, yeah. In much of West Africa, one would have to add the local market traders association

and in immediate sub-Saharan areas the traditional Muslim leadership structures. In Asia, religious groups and their leaders would have to be added to the list. And in some countries, such as Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Hong Kong, the local business class will be of importance. Missing from all the lists are the, are the foreign business interests which may play an important role, but which represent a special problem already dealt with in Chapter 2. Whatever groups dominate the political scene of our country in normal times,

the special circumstances of the coup will mean that only a few elements among them will be important to us. Political forces can intervene against the coup in two ways. A, they can rally and deploy the masses, and some or some part of them against the new government, or B, they can manipulate technical facilities under their control in order to oppose the consolidation of our power. When he says manipulate technical facilities,

what jumps into your mind there as example? Well, I mean, the obvious one is he's just talking about using the way, a really good example of the way, again, whether or not you believe they are is another thing, But the media in this country right now believes they're responding to a coup in the form of Donald Trump. And the way they have behaved the last couple of weeks is an excellent example of technical facilities under the control of the regime. Like they've been spinning absolutely off the charts and saying shit just because it's a institution that they have control of and perceive it as a weapon that can be used. right now. It's the most obvious example of one that I can think of one.

There's so much rugby on sports extra from Sky. They've asked me to read the whole lad at the same speed I usually use for the legal bit at the end. Here goes. This winter sports extra is jam-packed with rugby. For the first time we've got every Champions Cup match exclusively live, plus action from the URC, the Challenge Cup, and much more. That's the U.S. and all the best European rugby all in the same place. Get more exclusively live tournaments than ever before on Sports Extra. Jam-packed with rugby. Phew, that is a lot of rugby. Get Sports Extra on Sky for 15 euro a month for 12 months. Search Sports Extra.

New Sports Extra customers only. Standard Pressing applies after 12 months for the terms apply. Have you recently purchased a new vehicle from Frankine Volkswagen? If so, you may be at risk for an exciting condition known as New Car Joy. Symptoms may include spontaneous smiling, sudden increases in confidence and uncontrollable urges to take the scenic route. If you experience any of these symptoms, don't worry. The only known treatment is enjoying your new vehicle. Side effects may also include great value and exceptional customer service.

Talk to a friendly professional at Frank Heen Volkswagen today and see if upgrading your car is the right prescription for you. On the many days of Christmas, the Guinness Storehouse brings to thee. A visit filled with festivity. Experience a story of Ireland's most iconic beer in a stunning Christmas setting at the Guinness Storehouse. Enjoy seven floors of interactive exhibitions and finish your visit with breathtaking views of Dublin City

from the home of Guinness. Live entertainment, great memories and the Gravity Burr. My goodness, it's Christmas. at the Guinness Storehouse. Book now at ginnestorehouse.com. Get the facts. Be Drinkaware. Visit drinkaware.com. The action of individual political,

religious, ethnic, and intellectual leaders who could use the framework of their party or community against us is an example of the first kind of intervention. A strike of the staff of the radio and television services and is an example of the second. A general strike would, in effect, combine both kinds of intervention.

neutralizing the political forces one general politics like economics has its infrastructure just as industry and commerce require a background of facilities such as roads ports and energy sources direct political action requires certain technical facilities now it's really important this is a way this is a really important sentence right here because this is what he's doing something here that i mean when you talk about what i was talking earlier about getting out of the classical world entirely. This is what he's doing here. He's saying all of that stuff, all that theory. He's like, no. And he's like, these people have like at the, when you some, the coup is where you know, where the rubber actually meets the road.

These people have names houses and are like real existing entities that have variables, a whole different set of variables than, you know, like, uh, then, then, then theoretical ones do is like, no, like, no, like, no, like, no that really matters to you know, we need her, well, what we need a, well, what we need a road. roads, ports, and energy sources. And this is like, you know, this is what you talk about. You neutralize political force with material control is what we're about to get into. The mobilization of French public opinion that took place during the attempted coup in Algiers

and was the principal cause of its failure could not have taken place without the use of a whole range of technical facilities. The government appealed to public opinion by means of the mass telecommunications media, chiefly the radio and television services. Today, of course, it would primarily use social media, the trade unions, and other organized bodies coordinated the agitation of their members by means of their network of branches, connected to the central headquarters

by means of the public telecommunications facilities. Finally, the mass demonstrations could not have taken place without the use of public and private transport. Our general neutralization of the political forces will be conducted in terms of this infrastructure. We will seize and hold such facilities as we require for our own purposes, while temporarily putting the others out of action. If the means of communication and the transport system are under our control,

or at any rate do not function, the potential threat posed by the political forces will be largely neutralized. The leaders of the pre-cue government will be arrested, since they are part of the infrastructure, and they would probably be the major sources of insolition. of any opposition to the coup. Okay. This is just going to just stop and point out again, how actually aggressive this is.

Okay, this is one of the things that makes the Lutswai, the Lutvat game incredibly famous. So again, we're continuing to discard sort of classical thinking. Classical thinking may, the game of classical thinking might put you in a position where you say, okay, we need to either concentrate on destroying, on, on disabling. opposition architecture or building our own architecture. And he flips this game over and says, no, you actually have to attack on two fronts. You have to destroy that you have to destroy

or incapacitate bears, but also sees as much of it for you as you possibly can. So like this is incredible, he's prescribing attack harder than anyone has ever suggested attack before. Even someone like Napoleon would not have, would, would not have done this regularly. Okay, let me see. Where was I?

Okay. We will neutralize some political forces in particular by identifying and isolating their leadership and by disrupting their organizations. This will only be necessary for those forces sufficiently resilient and sufficiently militant to intervene against us, even though the infrastructure has been neutralized. Both forms of neutralization will involve the selection of certain objectives that will be seized, or put out of action by teams formed out of those forces of the state, which we have fully subverted or, in our terminology, incorporated.

Yeah, can't help but chuckle. Unless our target country is particularly small, and its physical and political structure is particularly simple, its system of government will be complex. Its physical facilities will be extensive, and its political forces will be many in number, while their intervention capabilities will be difficult to forecast. We will, therefore, start by analyzing the governmental leadership in order to determine which personalities must be isolated for the duration of the active phase of the coup and which can be safely ignored.

You see how procedural this all is? Like, you see, this is what we're doing. Is this like, it's like building a program is what it is, you know. Right. And he's using terms like isolated. or, you know, a personality must be isolated or can be safely ignored. Just that's a huge contrast there, especially when you know what isolated means. Next, we will study the physical facilities and select those most likely to be relevant during the coup

in order to plan their seizure or neutralization. Finally, I mean, the seizure or neutralization, I mean, neutralization could mean a lot of things right there. Yeah, you're still like blowing up a natural gas tank in the parking garage. So like everything you see happening in Gaza is because both sides have a copy of this book. You know. Finally, we will investigate the nature of those political forces that could still retain a degree of intervention capability after our general measures have been implemented in order to prepare for their individual neutralization. personalities in the government.

However bloodless our coup, however progressive and liberal our aims, we will still have to arrest certain individuals during and immediately after its execution. Of these, the most important group will be formed by the leading figures of the pre-coup regime, or, in other words, the leaders of the government and their close associates, whether they are formally politicians or not. The members of a cabinet will form a fairly large group from 10 to 50 people, adding their associates and intimate advisors who could organize opposition against us. We could easily reach a figure four or five times that number. Apart from being uncomfortably large, this will also be an especially determined and dangerous group.

The personal repute, presence, and authority of its members might enable them to rally against us the disorganized forces of the state or the unorganized masses. It could also enable them to impose their will on the team sent to capture them, turning their would-be captors into their allies. General Calais, for example, was regarded as the patron by the NCOs of the French army in Algeria, and even after the total failure of his attempted coup, the Paris government could not entrust him to a military escort on his way to France an arrest. The government instead had to use the CRS, whose members had never experienced his personal authority.

After all, if a young soldier acting outside his familiar role is facing a political personality whose whole behavior is calculated to make people obey him, it is difficult to be absolutely certain that he will carry out his orders, and not the counter orders he may be given. This one seems, this all seems to treat real, pretty boilerplate. Like, all right, yeah, yeah, yeah, we know. The large number of separate targets, along with the possibility of radiation effects, indicates that the team sent to arrest them should be large and particularly well chosen. Since our resources will be limited, we will have to concentrate our efforts on the most important figures within the group,

leaving the others to be picked up later when our means will have been expanded by the allegiance of the wait and see element. We cannot arrest all those who may constitute an eventual danger, but we must make sure that we do arrest the really dangerous figures, that is, the key figures within the leadership, who may or may not be the first in the formal order of precedence. The formal structure of most modern governments falls into two broad categories. The presidential type in which the head of state is also the main decision maker, as as in the United States, France, the Russian Federation, and most African states,

and the prime ministerial type where the head of the state has largely symbolic or ceremonial duties and the real decision-making duties are carried at a theoretically lower level, as in Britain, India, and most of Europe. A third alternative form. Just to point out what he's doing here now is actually he's prescribing a network attack. This is a good. And he's one of the, he works with Rand Corporation.

This is like one of the things that they really pioneer is all that social media research that's like finally like trickled down to the cat lady demographic. They like were the pioneers of it in the late 1960s. And so essentially what they're talking about is like you, we just pointed out this is the sampling set

problem. We just pointed out that there's going to be, there's like a thousand people that you have to nail down in like Djibouti if you want to do a coup there. And like like unfortunately they're also going to be the thousand most difficult people to get so like your chances realistically or it's like this like trying to sample was like trying to get a good sample with Pennsylvania voters in you know for 2024 for the 2024 election we don't have any way of

knowing what the hell is going on out there we don't have really good sources of information but like we do know that we have enough that we can maybe figure out which nodes we can at discreetly to minimize the probability of the others being able to form, you know, to act as a coherent network. So that's the game theory that he's setting up here. A third alternative form, which is not a structure at all, but rather a denial of one, is the strongman form of government. The strong man may not be a top minister and may hold no official position at all, but actually rules by using the formal body of politicians as a scream. This type of regime evolves when the fabric of the state has been weakened to such an extent that only

the actual leader of some part of the armed forces or police can control the situation and remain in power. A person even minimally acceptable as a political leader can take over the formal post as well, becoming the visible head of the government. Nasser in Egypt, Reza Shah, the father of or the present shaw of Persia, both accomplished this after a short period of transition, but there can sometimes be racial or religious reasons that bar the strong man from an official position.

The man who controls the bayonets may be totally unacceptable as a public figure, but he can still rule indirectly by manipulating the official leaders he keeps under control by the ultimate sanction of force. This charge you're about to read was one of the more confusing charts that I've actually like every once in a while I run across one and I'm going to know if I'm going to read this chart people can if people can pick up the book and read it I don't think it I don't think it helps us it's screenshot it yeah it's just his shorthand or stuff 17th century England and kind of courage you all right when in early 1966 the syrian government of the moderate wing

of the bath party headed by michel afloch salabes Tsar and the army leader Hafiz was overthrown by an extreme left faction of the party. The new leadership found out that though it controlled the army and the country, it could not rule openly. The army officers who led this latest coup were too young, too unknown, and above all, they were Alawites. Salad, their leader, was a dark brooding figure who inspired fear and hatred among the small part of the public that knew of him, and of all the communities of the people.

Syria, the Aloitites were among the least prestigious. In colonial times, the French had recruited most of their forces of repression, the troupe speciale du lavant, from the minority communities, chiefly the aloites, and they had given the al-a-white area in northern Syria a form of autonomy and order, so the nationalist claimed to break up Syrian national unity. After independence, the Sunni majority community regarded the alawites as renegades and public opinion would only have accepted an al-oite head of state with difficulty you know you can ask you a question do what is an al-white i don't even know this is like a perfect time for does anybody know okay so it's yeah no one knows

it's really odd they're okay they're technically muslim who seem to be closer to christianity than they are Judaism. Okay, so they're like syncretics of some sort. Yeah. It's a religious group, not an ethnic group. Okay. Yeah, it's what's his name? I mean, Assad is an al-a-white.

Yeah, yeah. But he's actually really good in his country about protecting Christians and Jews. So it's... Yeah, that makes sense. I just didn't know what one is. I'm like, is it like a... It's just... It's been a placeholder in my head, like when he's a little drap died.

It's like, okay, I know he's an al-a-like, but I don't know what the hell that is. I looked it up once, and it was confusing to me. It's like trying to look, uh, trying to look up the, um, what's that spiritual sect of Islam, Sufi? Sufi, yeah, yeah, it's like, I don't know what, I don't know what's going on. I just, I'd have to read, I'd have to read a book about it instead of looking at like Wikipedia and a couple articles. Yeah.

I probably still wouldn't understand. All right. Salad Jadid overcame this problem by appointing a full set of cabinet ministers carefully chosen so as to balance the various communities while retaining the real decision-making power within a separate body, the National Revolutionary Council, headed by himself. Thus, though Syria had a president, Nuridin al-Atasi, a prime minister, Yusef Zwayan,

and a foreign minister, Ibrahim Makul. all major political decisions were made by Jadid. The ministers would go on state visits, make the public speeches, and appear in all ceremonial occasions, but power was not in their hands. The Assad's father and son followed this model faithfully, placing Sunnis in the nominally important positions, but keeping the key positions for Aloit, Druze, and Ismailis. I don't know what those three are.

I've never looked. I mean, I've looked up Aloites. I've never bothered looking up Drew's. Is Smalley's sounds, that sounds like a slur. But, yeah, again, the good thing is, is that as long as you can follow the, like, the, like, language that he's using, he could be using the Dungeons and Dragons game as an example here.

And it's, that's kind of how I'm reading it. I'm like, oh, Drew's, yeah, of course, yeah. Neutral good. Yeah. The sometimes socialist countries were formerly ruled by party governments, but they tended to break down into one of the two other types. In its original form, real political power was concentrated in the hands of the Central Committee and some other higher party council. Once the purely ceremonial figures have been excluded, the number of people still to be dealt with will be reduced, and by applying our time span criterion, we can, can reduce their numbers still further.

The Minister of Economic Planning may be a crucial figure in the government. His position as a technocrat may be unassailable, but he may be unable to rally public opinion against us to assert his authority over the armed forces. This is why the same reason. Who is that German guy, the one, the Nazi, the architect Nazi?

The hell is the same? The one that came to read all those, wrote all those books. He was the really like the like senior Nazi minister. He was like yeah. Yeah. Albert Albert Speer. Yeah. This is like what they're talking about with them. He's like yeah, this guy's and again, I like to talk about this all the time. I use this. I do exactly what he's doing here all the time. All those articles I write about like dimensionalization and that sort of thing. I have another one coming out about exactly this right now. I was like when you're modeling this situation in your head to make this decision should you do a coup,

you remember that it's not just you don't just have space to take to take into consideration you have time as well so it's like okay you don't want to spend a lot of time chasing down Albert Speer that still got if Himmler is still on the board so you need to be strategic about who you take out you know what's going on here there's like and you know the time span the time span this is happening in Albert Spear is not that important but I didn't go write books in England there's so much rugby on sports from Sky, they've asked me to read the whole lad at the same speed I usually use for the legal bit at the end. Here goes. This winter sports extra is jampacked with rugby. For the first time we've got every Champions Cup match exclusively live, plus action from the URC, the Challenge Cup, and much more. Thus the URC and all the best European rugby all in the same place.

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Book now at Guinness Storehouse.com. Get the facts. Be drink aware. visit drinkaware.e. I'm trying to remember where I was. I'll just start from the beginning of the paragraph. Once a purely ceremonial figures have been excluded, the number of people still to be dealt with will be reduced,

and by applying our time span criterion, we can reduce the number still further. The Minister of Economic Planning may be a crucial figure in the government. His position as a technocrat may be unassailable, but he may be unable to rally public opinion against us or to assert his authority over the armed forces. The dramatic nature of the coup will reduce political life to its ultimate rationale, sheer force,

and we will concentrate on these figures in the government who could deploy it. The obvious personalities, therefore, will be, A, the minister of the interior and his associates who control the police force. B, the minister of defense and his associates who control the armed forces. C, the party leaders,

if there is a party militia. D. the prime minister or other central figure who coordinates all these. We must remember that, for various reasons, figures in the government may not always be what they appear to be. We may discover that the apparently innocuous minister of education controls an important student's militia, or the Minister of Labor, a powerful workers militia.

More important, the effective power may be held by an inner association of a particular group of ministers who, between them, control the means of coercion of the state. Thus, the government of Czechoslovakia between the elections of May 1946 and the final communist takeover in February 1948 was a coalition of all democratic parties, but the communist ministers within it effectively monopolized the control of the means of coercion, the police, and the security service. The existence of a group of associates whose alliance transcends the formal order of government is illustrated in figure 4.2. In this particular case, out of the 18 or so members of the government, the prime minister,

the ministers of defense, labor, and education, and the undersecretaries of state for the army and police, actually hold the reins of power, though, of course, they need not be especially cohesive at any particular time. The process of selection so far discussed should result in the classification of the personalities of the pre-ku regime into three categories. You have this chart as president, head of state prime minister, minister of defense, and then it's just showing, it's spreading out and showing who the minister of education, possibly, what is it, possibly who they could. Yeah, and it's worth pointing out here, this is not meant to be deterministic chart here.

And I think a lot of political movements with this is an important, this is one of the art of war lessons. Because when you're looking at a chart like this, you have to remember that that chart may not reflect the chart that you would need to build. So he's like sort of giving you an example of a workflow, but you don't, you would be very, you may not necessarily be taken under advisement to repeat his exactly. Because you have to go, you know, your situation on the ground is going to change. But it's like, you know, yeah, an essential, you know, so you have to establish a work. It's a really what he's talking about here is establishing workflow as it from in the most boiled down possible way. And he's like, you have to have a system for figuring out whenever this, it's being a trustless system to as to be a fail proofs. It's just be a very simple machine that, you know, triages and eliminates and or neutralizes these figures.

Okay. The ceremonial figures, they will not be arrested. If the head of state is generally popular, he or she should be used as a symbol of continuity who will help us to establish our legitimacy, provided he or she can be safely manipulated and made to play this role. The other lesser ceremonial figures can simply be ignored. The Inner Council and the Controllers of the Means of Coercion. This small group must be sequestered.

and held in isolation until our authority is safely established. Apart from the service ministers, etc., any government leader who is personally, particularly popular should be included in this category. The other ministers and top civil servants. This larger group should be subdivided into priority groups to be dealt with as and when our resources expand or become available when other more urgent tasks have been carried out. personalities outside the government. The political weight of an individual in any large-scale political community will usually only be

important within the framework of an organization which he heads or manipulates. It is sometimes possible for an individual to achieve political importance by becoming identified with an ideology or an attitude in which some significant part of the public believes. Kosut, the leader of the Hungarian nationalist movement in the 1840s, 48, 1849 revolution was a poet by profession and had no party machine behind him. But he did have considerable power because the masses in the cities at any rate identified his person with Hungarian nationalism. And you know, it's wild. I was literally, I think so similarly to Leukh whenever he started this, that I was thinking,

I was we're going to go grab Koso to the very example here. But this is one of these things that is very cool, you know, that he's, that he's doing here is that he's establishing. And if you look at the name of the section, this personality, he's not talking about, he doesn't say persons. He talks about personalities, which is this person,

which is this more abstract thing that's harder to nail down. So you know, this is why coups tend to be so brutal. And this is why they, is because you have to not only, you don't only have to kill the person, you have to kill them brutally that the personality dies as well. So we're,

And we're theorizing about this more abstract thing called a persona than we are about persons themselves that have a lot more interesting characteristics that we probably don't have time to get into. But that is just something I absolutely had to point out. Gandhi, who operated largely outside the Congress party machine, also achieved personal power because too many Indians, he was the, too many Indians, he was the embodiment of nationalism. The remoteness of the examples indicates that such figures are very rare, and if we do have them in our target area, they should be treated as ceremonial figures. Physical facilities. Mass media. Regardless of the pervasive reach of interpersonal social media and of the internet in general, unless blocked by effective firewalls, control over the mass media emanating from the political center, will still be our most important weapon in establishing our authority after the coup. The seizure of the main means of mass communication will thus be a task of crucial importance. One, though only one, of the causes of the failure of the Greek king's counter-coup in late 1967 was this inability to communicate with the masses, literally, and otherwise.

When Radio Larissa broadcast the king's message, it only reached a fraction of the population. The transmitter was weak in the wavelength unusual. Instead of the booming voice of authority, the declaration took the form of a weak appeal for help. We must not make a similar mistake. He points out here, you want to say something? No, just giggling. He's just, he's a funny guy. He's a funny guy. Yeah. He has a table, a short table here. Mass communications in the Middle East and North Africa mid-1967. Estimated circulation of daily newspaper. is 1.5 million. Estimated number of television sets, 1 million. Estimated number of radio sets, 7 million. Because of the short time frame for the coup and because of the likely social background

of our target country, the press need not be a primary target. We will establish our authority over it after the coup, as with other aspects of the nation's life. Inevitably, the press can only play a marginal role in countries where illiteracy is widespread, and in any case, It is the radio and television services that are mainly associated with the voice of the government. The approximate comparative data for the Arab world in Table 4.3 illustrates the importance of the different media, in one part of the third world. Even these figures understated the contemporary importance of radios and television sets because while the press figures refer to circulation, i.e. estimated number of readers,

rather than copies sold, the radios and television says reach a much wider public, even among the poorest groups, since every cafe has one. And anyone who's traveled in a country knows exactly what that last said. He's been a poor country. He's being incredibly romantic here as well. This is like what James. He's conjuring up some like like James Bond tier exoticism. And it works for nobody, this is the reason.

Nobody can do this like him. He's the only guy. Back is the guy for that. I've been in some really, some really nice cafes and really poor countries. And there really is a romantic, there really is a romanticism to them. Especially during the winter in Eastern,

in Eastern Europe. Oh, man. There are two problems associated with the radio and television facilities from our point of view. A, there will often be many different broadcasting services and associated facilities, and B, they are particularly difficult to seize. In some countries where the internal security position is precarious, the governmental radio is heavily guarded, but even where there is not the case, these facilities

are difficult to seize because their staff have a uniquely extensive way of raising the alarm. As for the duplication of broadcasting facilities, even Haiti, a very small and extremely backward country, had 18 different radio stations even back in 1967, and they were controlled by independent networks. I bet that is out of date. Yeah. I doubt they have 18 right now. Our objective is not merely to control, but also to monopolize the flow of information. Therefore, we must deal with every single facility. This would be difficult and would also lead to a dispersal of our forces if we tried to. to seize and hold every facility.

Our strategy will therefore be to seize and hold just one facility, the one most closely associated with the voice of authority while neutralizing the others. This is best done with a cooperation of some technical member of their staff who would be able to sabotage a facility from the inside. A single cooperative technician will be able to temporarily put out of action a radio station that would otherwise require a full-scale assault team. If we are unable to recruit an internal saboteur, the next best alternative will be external sabotage. There's no need to cause any extensive damage, since it will usually be possible to remove or destroy a small but essential part of the

transmitter, or transmitters, thus effectively neutralized in the facility. The one broadcasting facility, which we do have to seize and hold, will present a special problem. On the one hand, our need for the facility is absolute. On the other, because it is such an obvious target, the governmental forces will certainly. Yeah, you have to attack the Dead Star. It's what happened. They know that's the thing. Every, like, it was all the rest of this is just talk around that. We know that's the thing you've got to get, you know. This means that the team assigned to this target will have to be adequately staffed and equipped, and in order to obviate the need for the cooperation of the facility's personnel, should also include a skeleton technical

staff. Appendix B on the military aspects of the coup deals inter alia with the composition of the various teams. Telecommunications. In spite of the advent of the internet and social media, technical progress has on balance evolved in our favor because all the communications between our own teams can be carried out by cheap, reliable, and secure two-way radios now universally available. We must, however, deny the opposition the use of their own communication systems. By doing so, we will paralyze their reaction and prevent them from deploying against such forces as they still control. As figure 4.3 shows, the neutralization of the telecommunication facilities will be complicated by their multiplicity, and it will be essential to achieve full coverage.

Only power cuts can reduce internet communications, and that too only gradually, though any specific social network can be blocked. The left socialist revolutionary coup against the Bolsheviks in July 1918 failed partly because it failed to comprehend the need for monopoly of all telecommunications. the left socialist revolutionaries had infiltrated a group of the Cheka, the main instrument of Bolshevik power, and various army detachments. With these, they arrested the head of the Checa, Felix Zerinsky, and seized many public buildings and the Moscow Telegraph Office. They failed, however, to seize the Telegraph Office, I'm sorry, they seized the public buildings and the Moscow Telegraph Office. They failed, however, to cease to telephone office as well. And while they were sending cables all over Russia asking for generalized political support,

Lenin used the telephone service to mobilize as fighting forces. With these, the coup was quickly crushed. People are just going to have to go, going to have to look at this chart themselves. I spend all day looking at charts that look exactly like that. And I was like, oh, man, I'm not at work right now. I can't do it. Internal security authorities are aware of the need for efficient communications, and apart from the facilities illustrated in figure 4.3,

there may also be independent networks for the exclusive use of the security forces. The French gendarmerie has a system of regional links, which bypasses the public telephone and cable wires, and even in smaller countries such as Ghana, the police force has long had a fully independent. dependence system. In the United States, there is no national police nor a national police network as such, but the Department of Defense maintains a nationwide and international system that is largely a single network in the world and connects every U.S. military installation with every other

throughout the world. We cannot, of course, hope to seize every two-way set in the hands of the police and the military authorities, but we should neutralize by external or internal sabotage. those facilities which can be identified and located. There's no need to seize and hold any of these facilities. Therefore, it will simply be a matter of penetrating the central organization of each communication system for the brief period required to sabotage this operations. Though, again, internal sabotage will be easier and safer. Let's leave it right there.

We're right at about an hour. because of city entry. One of the things that just always amazes me is how, I don't know how good of a sample I am, but like sometimes whenever I, like I said, he and I think so similarly that like I was like, okay, we're going to talk about

Kosas now, and of course he didn't immediately did. But the, like, I'm not sure how exposed like even most like sort of non-normy audiences are to this sort of thinking. I think at this point it's pretty saturated you know but like I some of the stuff that he talks about now like he's in this last section essentially describing cyber attacks is like you need to like I the

ideal situation is you just disrupt communications for two hours you know you push some bad code to you know it's a cloud fair and but boom the whole thing's over and then everything is right back to normal you know it's it's interesting that you know he's as for writing this because like that's so foundational to me just like okay yeah that's the way that's the way you do that yeah i mean i still yeah i still think that like most people most people who would try to read this would go right over their head yeah i think they i'm all about all about trying to like like multi-dimensional thinking this is really what loop back is talking and when i said this is one of the chapters you can apply to a lot of things you just like think about

things like okay what to make instead of like how you know let's say like what do i need to do to like what do i need to do to make money or whatever you think of it like you think of it like okay what dimensions do i have control of currently that can be rearranged to like to produce you know profit there's a little mind tricks that you can do with yourself and like he's introducing people to this kind of thinking in this book it's about you know nominally running a coup as well that's one of the didactic dimensions of it and that's the coolest one i think and so yeah this has been fun cool well um i'm i still have a lot more to read hopefully you can come back and uh pick up some more and uh share some knowledge with us oh yeah uh well plug your plug your stuff again i'm pretty

sure i put it in the show notes of the last thing and i'll make sure to do that again yeah yeah yeah well right right now i think i just have the sub stack but i think i'm I'm going to have some more interesting stuff coming out. I'm actually going to start doing, look, the weird thing. I'm going to start doing like, like, kind of some basic, but maybe not so basic because they're just going to be additive in a lot of ways. I'm going to start doing some digital humanities like AI natural language processing projects and show, you know, show to do some informatics about it.

You know the reason why, and I'll say it on this show is because I was learning all this stuff and I get, absolutely sick of dealing with YouTube videos by people whose dialect I can't understand so I'm like, let's just get like a video where there's like a white dude just being a normal white dude talking about how to do some of the stuff, but people might be interested

them. You know, like I'm going to call it like AI for Chuds or something like that. It'll be cool. You don't want to listen to no more AI. Talk about like this? Yeah, you know, I used to teach geography. I used to teach geometry to, I mean, kids that, it was actually kids at a really good school, but the way I would teach geometry to them, though, is look like nothing but word problems. So we'd be like, so this is how we're going to figure out how many times the British, the English archers at Agincourt could have shot before the French knights, you know, get to them.

And that sort of like, we do stuff like that. We're going to look at like, I have this really juicy data set of sales at the New Orleans slave market that I've been like wanting to crack open for years. It's just been like sitting in my cellar. I think it's one of the ones I'm going to look at. So if you like that kind of, I don't know, I don't know how much people like the graph content from me, but like this is a great, because it's all I've been talking about for the last hour.

This is a great place to plug that. So I mean to do that as well, I think. No problem. All right, Christopher. Thank you. Have a good night. All right, you too.