The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - A Crack in the North American Drug War || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: August 1, 2024

I'm back home from Yosemite on a brief intermission to my summer backpacking trips, and wanted to issue an update on the Mexican Cartels. Specifically, we're talking about the arrest of Sinaloa leader, El Mayo. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-crack-in-the-north-american-drug-war

Hey everybody, Peter Zion here coming to you from Smokey Colorado. We're definitely in the depths of fire season here. In fact, there's a forest fire about five miles that way. No stress. Anyway, I've been gone backpacking for a couple of weeks. I'm about to disappear again, so I figured I'd take this opportunity to update you on what has gone down while I've been out. And I'm sure lots and lots and lots and lots of you have long, long lists of things that you want me to update you on.

But there's really only one thing that I saw that happen that really requires giving you guys the lowdown, and that happened in Texas and Mexico last week when a guy by the name of Ismail Zambata, also known as El Mio, the titular head of the Sinaloa Drug Trafficking Coalition in Mexico, got on a plane, flew to Texas under false presences, and was promptly arrested. Quick background. The Sinolaa cartel is not simply the most powerful drug trafficking organization in Mexico. It's the most powerful one here in the United States.

And in fact, it's the largest organized crime group in the world. And the reason it got into that position is because of its previous leader, a guy by the name of El Chapo, Guzman. Anyway, El Chapo ran his place like an American or a Korean conglomerate. The idea being that we're all on the same side, you don't shoot at one another, you don't engage in petty larceny, things that'll piss off the population. But you do branch out into affiliate industries on the side. So not just cocaine, also marijuana, also heroin, maybe a little bit of, bit of light kidnapping and human trafficking, maybe try to get into local government, getting to transport, agriculture, tourism, you know, anything you can money launder with.

He ran it as an institution, and in doing so kept the violence rate, at least within his one organization, relatively low, and kept clashes with local governments relatively low. Well, this allowed him to take the Sinaloa to Dizzying Heights, and so the United States named him public enemy number one, and eventually in a series of operations, we got him. And then he got away and then we got him again. And now he's serving a life sentence in some dark hole in the United States. Anywho, his successor is this guy who was recently arrested El Mio. And El Mio is best known as El Chapo's accountant.

And so he really knows where all the bodies are, where all the institutions run, who the personalities are, where the money flows, how it's money laundered, all that good stuff. So big win. And perhaps something that argues that he's going to try to cut a deal. is how he was captured because this was not a DEA or FBI problem or project. This was one of the other leaders of the Sinalogic cartel, a guy who is known as one of Los Chapitos, the sons El Chapo, there's four of them, who basically tricked this dude to get on the plane flight of the United

States to look at an investment property. Love it. Turned himself in immediately. It is basically going through plea bargain, and El Mayo has nowhere to turn, because the evidence against him is now not just overwhelming, but there's now somebody else who was from the top of the institution who's involved. The question is what sort of operational impact is this going to have on the Sinaloa?

The Sinaloa broke into several dozen pieces after El Chapo fell, and El Mio controlled the single largest chunk. The second, third, fourth, and fifth largest chunk were controlled by Los Chapitos, one of whom, you know, has now turned El Mio in. And we have another Chapito who is already in custody in the United States. So two of the four are down. Three of the five kingpins are down. In the short term, this means a lot of blood in Mexico, because there will be fighting as these factions without their leader splinter and as other factions try to gobble up pieces and as local crime groups,

where these other factions operate, we'll see what they can grab as well. So Mexico is already coming out of like a three-year period that's the most violent in the country's history. you should not expect this to improve that situation at all. However, by now having some idea of where the money is flowing and where the roots are, the United States can actually start dismantling the Cinelloa apparatus within the United States. Now, don't expect that to have a huge or immediate impact on the flow of narcotics into the United States. That is driven by two things. Number one, Americans really like their Coke.

And number two, because it is a very, very, very, expensive per unit of weight and bulk, it's very easy to smuggle. So there will always be groups in Mexico and in the United States that are willing to push that stuff through. It just won't be at the institutional stage of the Sinaloa cartel. If you wanted to make a bigger bang, the person you would go after wouldn't have been El Maya, would have been a guy by the name of El Mancho. He's the leader of the counter group opposing Sinaloa in Mexico, and that is known as Holisco New Generation. Now, El Mentioncho, unlike El Mention, unlike El Chapa or El Mio don't run, he doesn't run his organization as an institution. He runs it as a one-man

show and a crime boss. And he has no problem killing people everywhere he goes. He rules by fear. And the violence is the point we just happen to make some money on the site of selling drugs. If you were to move him, his organization probably collapsed into an interfaternal bloodbath, yes, but you'd probably see a significant impact on the flow of cocaine in the midterm. would it end? Of course not. As long as Americans want their Coke, this is going to continue. But I don't want to take away from the victory here. The bookkeeper has been brought in, and that will absolutely have some significant impacts. Now, for that other topic that everyone wants me to talk about, Biden's withdrawal from the race, this really doesn't change things.

I made the call two years ago as how this election is going to go. I don't see any reason to adjust that now. And I made some minor adjustments about a few weeks ago when we had the presidential debate would showcase the mental incompetence of both candidates. I would just add one thing. A lot of Americans, roughly 20 to 25 percent of voters, and the vast majority of America's true independence, have been saying for months that they want someone else to choose from. They don't want to choose between two people that they've had to choose from before. Independence are fickle voters. They hate voting for the same person a second time. Well, with Biden out and Harris in, they no longer have to.

And so what was likely to be a lopsided contest in favor of the Democrats already is now likely to be a route for the Republicans unless, of course, Vice President Harris absolutely shits the bet in some way in the next few months. And that doesn't seem to be her style. Okay, that's all I got. Take care.