The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - A New War in Ukraine || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: August 26, 2024

There are lots of moving parts in the Ukraine War right now, so let's do a little recap of everything that's going on. There are four big ones... Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-new-war-in-ukraine

Hello from Colorado on a somewhat calling me Saturday. This is the Geneva Basin behind me, and I am standing on the crest of Geneva Mountain. Today, we're going to catch you up on everything that's going on in Ukraine. We've got four big things that have evolved over the last couple of weeks. The first one we've already discussed quite a bit, and that is the Ukraine offensive through their northern border into Russia proper into the Kursk province, where they've triggered a war of movement with the Russians. It's everything that we can tell is that the Ukrainians are taking heavy casualties

and the Russians are taking just absolutely astronomical casualties because the Ukrainians have destroyed the bridges across the Sem River. So the Russian forces that are south of the river and north of the Ukrainian border are just getting chopped up without any support and the Ukrainians are apparently having a pretty good time of it. They've also brought a lot of their longer strike-range missiles and mortars and drones. We're very, very close to the border itself and are launching them to targets up to 100 miles within Amit,

and Russia, proper, and are just gutty the logistics infrastructure and everything in the southern and the western parts of Kursa province. Basically, the entirety of the northern front of the Ukrainian has now been relocated into Russian territory. So a significant change in battlefield realities there, and if the Ukrainians are able to keep this up, they'll be able to cut the infrastructure between Kersk City and Belgarad City, which is how all Russian forces have been supplying for the northern front. So very significant has the opportunity to become much more significant in the days and weeks to come.

The second big effect is that the Ukrainians have successfully sunk Russia's last rail ferry. Now, for those of you who haven't been watching for a while, the primary means of the Russians have been using to supply their forces in the Crimea Peninsula in the south of Ukraine has been the Kerch Street Bridge. But after a series of attacks on it over the last two years, the cargo function of the bridge has basically been shut off. They can ship personnel in, but no cargo, so no fuel. So they've now been using rail ferries to go from the Black Sea coast of Russia into occupied territory. Well, the Ukrainians a few months ago started targeting the rail ferries, and this last week, the final was hit, and it was hit while it was at dock in port, and it sunk in its birth.

So even if the Russians had the equipment and the personnel, not to clear it, and it's unclear that they still do, They're talking about an operation that would probably take a minimum of a couple of months. And even if they did clear it, they have no more rail ferries and no one will sell them any. So this has basically destroyed the capacity of the Russians to ship fuel to the Crimean front. The third thing involves the city of Proletasque. Let me have a spell right here. Ah, I'm probably mispered out of that. Anyway, that is a city.

further inland Cresor Crestador Crestador Cray with basically a republic and it's a major fuel depot 74 of those giant tinks that you see outside of refineries or anywhere in Houston and so far the fire that they've triggered because of this attack has been so

intense that is completely destroyed a third of the tanks and it's spreading to the rest once again even if the Russians had the equipment and the personnel necessary to fight the fire which they don't and is, I don't want to call it, out of control, but the Russians are barely holding the line, and the Ukrainians have not let up. They've done at least a couple more attacks since then, and there's a very real possibility

that this entire depot, which is by far the biggest and most relevant one to the Krogyzstan front, is not going to be there a couple weeks from now. So not only as the fuel delivery now, out of the equation, the fuel storage of the fore-positioning seems to be going off the light permanently as well. that would likely open up a huge opportunity for the Ukrainians to press at the Crimean forever because of the Russian senators in Crimea can't get small or reinforcements or ammunition in the world. But that brings us to the fourth problem, which is absolutely not going the Ukrainians way.

And that is the Russian assault on the Ukrainian city of Prokruvsk. Prokrums, emphasis on the problem. That is in the Donbos, actually not too far from the regional capital. basically what's going on here is the Russians have decided that they have to take the city at any cost they've been throwing literally dozens of meat assaults against Ukrainian forces every single day for the last month and as the Russians are scrambling to move forces north into Kursk or south towards the Kribea and they have not pulled anything out of Krakosk in fact now that they can't get shul to Crimea there's an argument to be made that the Russians aren't even going to bother trying to defend Kribeah

in the short term. They're just going to send all the engines. It's just to per keros. If prokhov falls, it's a major problem for the Ukrainians because it's a rail nexus where seven lines come together. And if it is taken out, it's not that the Russians, it's not that the Ukrainians can't supply the front of the Bambas, but instead of having a single point where you can concentrate your forces and have a male fist to punch back, we'll have to do it from seven different points that require a lot of rerouting. That could be nearly as affected.

the amount of much that is here. The Russians and tribulation, other areas, because the Ukrainians would leave it up for us as a value in the United States. Ukrainians have always been trying to make this and turning out. I have a way of it. And the Russians have always tried to put it as a war of aggression. One of the reasons why the Ukrainians so well in Cours is they have managed to make

an end up there with wind. There are no minefields up there, so they're free to maneuver. But if McCross Falls, the Russians are going to be, excuse me, the Ukrainians are going to be running around just to to hold the front seven different places than he can't literally reinforce. It would be a big problem. So a lot of decisive things going on and on here.

Curse is in play. Crime it is in plight enough. The Ukrainians can find some more reserves to free up because those are now in curse, so it's probably a likely that you can take to feel advantage of this. And then of course, the dog bus is now in play. So we're probably going to see more changes in the front line in the next month than we have seen in the last couple of years. A very, very, very dynamic situation, very oddly player. The Flassoil has the comfort hand here because we have three different thanters of place. By the least, it's a talent.