The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - An Accident, Not Assassination, Takes Down the Iranian President || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: May 20, 2024

Iranian State media has confirmed the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi May 19th, following the crash of his helicopter over Iranian Azerbaijan. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/iranian-president-ebrahim-raisi-is-dead

Hey everyone, Peter Zion here, coming to you from the Mediterranean coast. It is the morning of May 20, and the news at the moment is that late last night, local time, a helicopter went down at Iranian Azerbaijan in the north of the country, and on board was Iranian President Gracie, and he perished. The Iranians don't use GPS like we do in the United States because they think that is an inn for American intelligence. Of course, they don't use the Russian system either. So it took them many, many hours to find him, and it was bad weather, and it was cold, it was foggy and by the time they found the crash site he was gone. For a country with Iran that is so, hmm, that's the best word to put this, dramatic,

this is obviously not a great thing to happen and it's obviously not a great time for anything to happen because there's a lot of movement and a lot of places in the Middle East. We have the Israelis trying to box the Iranians in strategically by getting a peace deal with the United States and Israel. We have a number of other Arab states looking to follow their lead. We've got the Gaza war We have the Ukraine war We've got the Chinese

Starting to put out feelers in the Middle East To see if they can become a regional power there as well A lot is going on So of course everyone everyone Everyone is talking about how he died How he could have died How he could have been assassinated And I don't want to rule out any particular theory right now

But Probably doesn't matter Racy is like any other Iranian president Before him Getting more and more and more involved and violence in the region and more and more involved with violence at home. So it's not that nobody wants the guy dead. There's very few people out there who don't want the guy dead.

But at the current moment, killing him doesn't really achieve anything because, first and foremost, the Iranian president is nowhere near the most powerful person in Iran. That would be Ayatollah Khomeini, the supreme leader. In fact, we were going to have elections later this year. So if somebody in the regime, one of him gone, there's much simpler ways to do so. I also don't think that we're in a situation in the Middle East right now where violence is naturally just going to explode. The Iranians and the Israelis have actually figured out how to step back from mutual confrontation to a degree. I mean, I don't want to overplay this. It's still the Middle East.

And so there was no immediate reason for the Israelis wanting them to be gone. And if Racy is replaced by just another ultra-Arthodox hardliner, you know, it's like what changes? You were talking about variations on the theme. There's always personal reasons. He's contributed to death a lot of people, and there are a lot of families out there who would like to see him gone. But again, there's nothing new here, and there's nothing that really moves the needle for me.

Everybody has their own pet theory. I'm not going to bother lighting them up and knocking them down. I will just underline that Iran has been under sanctions as regarding its air force and its aviation, civilian and military for 40 years at this point. So you're talking old vehicles, be maintained by second, third, and fourth hand parts that can sneak through the sanctions, airframes that were designed to be pulled from service in the mid to the late 80s.

And this is what he was flying on because this is all they have. And so the idea that this is simply a mechanical failure in bad weather remains the dominant, I say theory, but that's the likelihood here. As to what happens next, there is a caretaker, vice president who will take over. He's a dude that no one has heard of before. He has no ambition and no talent. So he'll be sidelined. I mean, this isn't like the United States

where the vice president just steps in and serves the remainder of the term. And it's certainly not like Europe where the parliament gets together and chooses a new prime minister. He wasn't that important. And he's going to be replaced by someone who is even less important.

And then we will have elections to decide who will take this spot. At the moment, the only risk here is that the natural drama of the persons boil up or someone on the outside chooses this is the opportunity to attempt to destabilize a country that actually hasn't been destabilized. And then we would be reminded that Iran has a lot of paramilitary operations well beyond its borders. So I kind of find myself, as in the situation, is when Iran launched their deliberately botched

attack on Israel a few weeks ago. This is a chance, an opportunity to calm things down. And normally in the Middle East, I would say no one would grab it, but we've had several incidences like that in the last few months. So maybe, just maybe, Grosse leaving this earth will be an opportunity for a little bit more calm in a region that is unexpectedly become the calmest in the world. Take your good news where you can.