The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Ask Peter Zeihan: Will Hypersonics Replace the Need for an Army?

Episode Date: July 12, 2023

With weapon systems moving toward hypersonics, what's the point of holding geographic positions anymore? Theoretically, this works...at the push of a button, you can deliver a precise payload across huge distances...but the Russians have shown us this isn't quite reality. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ask-peter-will-hypersonics-replace-the-need-for-an-army

Hey everyone, Peter Zion here, coming to you from near the Continental Divide, the ski fields of Keystone, Colorado there behind me. Today, we're going to do another one of the Ask Peter series, specifically on hypersonics. And the question is, with weapon systems moving in the direction of hypersonics, what's the point of holding geographic positions anymore? A little more context for that question. My position on the Russians is that this war was always going to happen, because the Russians fear that if they can't control the geographic access points to the Eurasian step where they are from,

that the Germans, the French, the Japanese, the Chinese, the Americans, the Canadians, everyone will be able to invade them as their demographic decay becomes not just irreversible. We're already at that point, but so horrible that you're basically dealing with a country that is a giant retirement community. Won't hypersonics allow them to functionally plug the gaps without having to physically occupy the terror? And the short answer is sorry, but no. Hypersonics, number one, they're expensive. They're considerably more expensive than, say, an intercontinental ballistic missile, especially if you want them to have range.

Second, because they're going so fast, they need a lot of fuel, which means they're not carrying a lot of ammo, and it's a one-shot, one kill. So if somebody's coming at you with 500 tanks and you only have 100 hypersonics, well, you're not going to have much luck there. Third, air defense. One of the things we've seen in the Ukraine wars, the U.S. Patriots, system is perfectly capable of shooting down multiple hypersonic missiles on a very short period of time. I'm afraid that there is still no substitute for ground forces. So while Air Force and helicopters and

missiles and artillery and rockets and armies are all part of a combined arms warfare system, the single most important one remains the army, because if you can't actually hold the territory, than anyone else can roll through if they have enough forces. And one of the things that the Russians are discovering is Ukraine, a country that they dwarf militarily, economically, and in terms of military reserves, if somebody can pump in the equipment, they can do just fine. If you have a country that you consider hostile on your horizon or just over it, there is no substitute for the army, and there will not be anytime soon.

Oh, yeah, one more thing. Russia can't make the microchips that are necessary. for a Kinsel to be able to target things independently. So either eyes on target, or they have to use their Kinsles and other hypersonic web platforms to do what they've been doing in the Ukraine more, which is to attack a fixed target landing trade, a power plant possible, whatever it happens to be. Russia doesn't have the technology and the capacity and the industrial base and the skilled labor force necessary to make semiconductors that can be used.

It light switches, much less Game Boyes, much less. washing machines, much less cars, much less airplanes, much less satellites, much less support the sort of AI that were required to self-target. And just so we're clear, the Chinese don't have that capacity either. The hypersonics and China use the same thing that the Russians are doing. They go after specific fixed targets or they're completely reliant upon satellite or confidence to provide physical vocation. If we get into an environment where the Chinese or the Russians, for that matter, cannot use satellites. And let's remind ourselves here that the United States has more capacity for space warfare than the rest of the human race bind. These hypersonics really are just interesting paperweights that really can't be used in any meaningful way,

except as the Russians are using them right now to attack fixed targets. Okay, that's it for me for real. Bye.