The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Can Discharge Petitions Save the Dysfunctional House of Representatives? || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: March 11, 2024

The House of Representatives is looking like dysfunctional family as of late, and of course, the weird uncle stirring up the pot is the Greenpeace faction. Opposing nearly every bill that dares to exist, they've essentially halted all legislative proceedings. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-faint-glimmer-of-hope-in-the-house-of-representatives

Everyone, Peter Zine here coming to you from Colorado. As a rule, I try not to comment on U.S. domestic politics, especially during campaigns, which it seems like we're always in one now. People are finicky. The systems change. Corruption scandals erupt. And it is rare, especially at the congressional level, that it affects international affairs, economic structure, or foreign policy, which are my big issues. We have an exception now because we have a faction of Republicans who define themselves as rights. who have basically blocked the House of Representatives from functioning. Basically, there's this clause within the ruling agreement, if that's the right phrase, of Republicans, that if a single member of the House of Representatives decides to challenge the Speaker on any issue, it immediately goes to a general floor vote. And since the Republicans only have about a two-seat majority now in the House, you can handle on the Democrats not stepping in to help the Republican Speaker. It basically means they lose their job that's already happened once the same.

session and it's in danger of happening again now. The current speaker is by the name of Johnson who was selected because he is a member of a group that's at least partially affiliated with that cluster on the far right. But he's actually trying to govern and that's kind of hard because you basically have this cluster of about a dozen Republicans who if each and everyone do not sign off on absolutely everything, then nothing can be brought to the floor for a debate or vote. Obviously, that is really pissing off the bulk of the Republicans in Congress, not to mention the Democrats, because they can't get anything on the floor. But before you poo-poo, Speaker Johnson, too much, keep in mind that he's always just one annoyed person now away from losing his job

completely. And so this is just where we are right now. This has the cause celebrate of this faction of the Republicans, which I call the Greenpeace faction, because they're opposed to everything. is, of course, Ukraine and aid to Ukraine, and that has significant battlefield implications and is doing significant damage to American short, mid, and long-term security concerns. But it's popular with their constituents. It's popular with that wing of the party. And, of course, in a presidential campaign, Trump has a few things to say about it, too. But it's not just this that has been a problem.

There's no aid to Taiwan. There's no aid to Israel. There's no defense reform. There's no movement on congressional debates for, say, the supercarriers, where there's no criminal justice reform. There's nothing on entitlements. This faction has blocked absolutely everything, and this Congress is definitely going to go down in history as the least productive Congress in American history by a very, very wide margin. Whether or not that's going to resonate with anyone at the ballot box, way too soon to know. But what it means for now is that if you are a member of a Democrat or a center's Republican group, you're looking for ways to still get things done.

And so what you're going to be seen over the next week or three is something called a discharge petition. Basically, that's what happens when a majority of the elected representatives in the house get together and jointly say, I want this on the floor for debate and vote. They need at least 218 signatories. If they can do that, then it is forced to the floor after a long, convoluted, not necessarily complicated system. and it can only be brought to a vote on like the first or the third Wednesday of a full blue moon and virgins have to be involved or something. It's weird.

Anyway, it's a laborious process that at best takes a week, can take several months. And if the speaker, because he's being hounded by the Greenpeaceers, decides he wants to throw a wrenchin plans, all he has to do is peel off one of its co-sponsors and the whole thing falls apart. But right now, that is the absolute only. way that something can get a vote on the floor that defies the Greenpeace faction. So what we're going to see probably in the next couple weeks is this be brought to the floor specifically for Ukraine. And if that is successful, we would probably see it almost immediately used again specifically for Taiwan or specifically for Israel. And once we get to that point,

and granted, we're already talking probably getting into the summer months here, the Democrats and the Republicans who are actually interested in governing, are going to discover that it's the only way for the House of Representatives to function. And if we get to that point, basically doing an end run around Speaker Johnson will be the only way that the House functions, which is, of course, the end of his political career. But it's not very high on most of these people's to protect lists. It does certainly end any possibility that this Congress is going to be more productive, but at least in this scenario, it would get a few things done.

How long we stuck with this? well, at least until after the elections. And November, we'll find out the makeup of the new house. It will sit in January along with a newer re-elected president. And at that point, we will have an idea. But before you're like, oh, we just have to wait till then. It's like, no. Both parties are a degree of dissolution at the moment,

as the factions that make them up move around. So the odds are at this point in the late party structure that the Greenpeace faction is actually likely to get more seats between now. and then, which means that for the Republicans to be the party of power in the House, they're going to need to get significantly more seats so that he cannot just outvote the Democrats, but also outvote this faction of Republicans. And while my political tea leaves tell me that Joe Biden is a shoe in here, it's not because anybody likes him.

And so the chances of his coattails being particularly long are not great. So this is where we are today with the House of, representatives being broadly non-functional. There is no reason to be overly optimistic that this is a limited time affair.