The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Can Ukraine Claim the Skies and Destroy Russian Air Defenses? || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: August 7, 2024

A forest fire near my home cut my backpacking trip short, but it did allow me to record some new videos. So, today we'll be looking at some recent developments in Ukraine. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-ukraine-claim-the-skies-and-destroy-russian-air-defenses

Hey, everybody, Peter Zine here coming to you from Colorado. I was out backpacking, but there was a forest fire near my house, so I'd run back in, you know. Anyway, it looks like it's under control. We have some thunderstorms moving in, so yay. Anyway, it gives you an opportunity to hear me talk about a couple of things that have happened in the few days that I've been back. The first one I'm going to talk about today is what's going on in Ukraine. As you know, the Ukrainians have become more and more creative at using imported weapons from the NATO alliance as well. as some of their own homegrown stuff to strike Russian targets further and further away.

And in the week that is around the 1st of August, just before, just after, a series of attacks took out a strategic bomber in Russia-specific, hit a refinery deep within Russia over 1,000 miles from the coast, started a really big fire, sank an A kilo-class submarine, you know, that's a $300 million price tag that the Russians just lost. But the most interesting thing I've seen is in a series of attacks took out at least five S-400 air defense systems. Now, the S-400 is supposedly the most sophisticated anti-aircraft system in the world, shoots down missiles, all that good stuff.

It's definitely had the shine taken off its reputation in the war. And these aren't the first ones that the Ukrainians have taken out. They've taken out at least another six to my knowledge. And the Russians only started the war with 50 to 56 somewhere in that number. So we're looking at somewhere along the lines of 20% of them have been taken out and probably a few more damaged as well. Using 50-odd things of these to provide full coverage for air defense for the entire Russian mainland, and now they've lost 20%.

So this has already gone from the issues of a tactical theater-generating problems for the Russians to a full-on strategic threat, that they're losing the ability to maintain a periphery for air defense and missile defense across their entire space. The Ukrainian goal here is very, very clear if they can take out enough of these things, especially in Crimea, to a lesser degree in the Dhenetsk region, then when the F-16s arrive, which are coming in from Denmark and the Netherlands and a number of other European countries,

then the Ukrainians will be able to use their air power without immediate fear of everything getting shot down. One of the big problems they had last year when they attempted their counter-offensives is they were trying to do combined warfare using artillery and rocket system and drones and men and tanks. and all of it, and aircraft, which they didn't have. And doing a combined warfare project without the air component was a bit of a problem.

And so basically the Russians were able to call in airstrikes and call in artillery support and cut up the Ukrainians as they were trying to advance. If enough anti-aircraft systems can be taken out of the equation on the Russian side, then even if the Ukrainians cannot achieve general air superiority, they can certainly achieve temporary air superiority over specific zones where it's important. And that is a very, very different sort of conflict where NATO trainers will prove immensely useful because that's how NATO operates. Anyway, the first F-16s have been repainted with Ukrainian livery. They are in Ukraine now. And probably over the course of the next few weeks, while I'm gone again, we're going to

see the first efforts by the Ukrainians to actually leverage the new air power in league with their ground power and we might see a crack in the line specifically in the direction of Crimea. We know that in just the last week, the destruction of the S-400 systems have induced the Russians to evacuate a couple of their air bases, just pulling all of their aircraft out because they can't defend them. Obviously, in the short term, that's great for Ukraine because it means these things are now going to be flying from Russia proper and much further away. But obviously moving forward, if the Russians lose the ability to do quick turnaround launches when the Ukrainians are operating, then the Ukrainians have that much more leeway and everything else.

Okay, that's it. Take care.