The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - China's Alleged Nuclear Test || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: February 27, 2026

The Trump administration has accused China of conducting a small nuclear test in 2020. The claim is that a seismic event was detected in Western China around that time. A lot is going on here, so let's unpack it.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3ZLIYKv

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Super windy day today. So we're doing this one inside. Wow, that hair is out of control, isn't it? Anyway, today we're talking about the U.S. governments, the Trump administration's accusation against China that the Chinese did an unofficial and banned nuclear test back in 2020. They're saying that somewhere out in Western China, which is the Chinese testing ground.

that they are as a subterranean explosion five, six years ago, which the Chinese blew up a bomb that is in contravention of pretty much every nuclear treaty that is left, and there aren't a lot of those left. This one's quizzical, so we're going to look at the technical aspects of it more than say yea or nay. There is a worldwide detection system for seismic activity, primarily designed to detect earthquakes and help forecast where the aftershocks were going to go to help with things like disaster recovery. Because of this, all of these sensors have been basically double-tasked to also look for underground nuclear explosions because they send out something

somewhat similar. And the US government is saying that something in the range of a 2.75 on the Richter scale was registered. 2.7 is really, really, really low. That's like fracking levels of earthquakes, something that is largely undetectable to humans who are standing directly above it. And if this was indeed a nuclear explosion, it would be something in the tens of tons, not even reaching a kiloton. Even if that was true and it was a nuke, the only way that you would have been able to contain it without some sort of activity is to have an underground cavity that is probably at least 100 feet on a side and at least 6, 7, 800 feet deep. the physical stress on any sort of construction at that depth is immense, and it's not clear that that is within the Chinese technical capacity.

And even if it was, it's unclear what a bomb of that size would achieve for the Chinese. Most modern bombs are in the tens to hundreds of kilotons or more likely in the megaton range, if you're talking city flatteners. And bombs of that size are actually below the range of most conventional, explosives. And when you consider the conventional explosives are an order of magnitude easier to manufacture and store, not to mention use because you know, about Fallout, it's difficult to see why there might be a need for a bomb of that size that is so tiny, a nuclear bomb of that size. About the only thing that might, might, might, might make sense is if you were to use it as a kind of a bunker buster, because the shockwave that comes off of a nuke is significant

significantly different from the shockwave that comes off of a conventional penetrator weapon, and it might do more damage to things that are subterrining and hardened. But the only things that are subterrating and hardened at scale are ironically the Chinese nuclear system, and it's difficult to see the Chinese researching the development of a weapon that they would then use on themselves. Anyway, lots of questions. There is not a single arms control expert on the planet who thinks that this was an actual nuclear explosion. And these are a very moralistic, idealistic, and loud crowd. And they've been angry at the last several American administrations

for basically letting all the nuclear control treaties of the Cold War and post-Cold War era lapse to the point that the last big one just lapsed last month. So the question is, what is going on here? If, if the Chinese are testing in violation of norms and treaties, then obviously that's a big deal for any number of reasons. but this was from five, six years ago, so it's difficult to see a immediate implication of it. Second, there is a theoretical possibility that you would do something like this on a trigger mechanism rather than the general nuke just to see if your plutonium still works.

But since it's so mechanically simple and relatively inexpensive to spin down the plutonium and re-separated in a centrifuge, it's difficult to say how that would make sense. the Chinese are in the business of expanding their arsenal, not maintaining a set number of pieces like the United States is. So, again, doesn't make much sense. The only other theory that is out there that have I heard is that the U.S. administration under Donald Trump wants to restart testing of nuclear weapons. This is something that has no support within the U.S. military community because it's designed to fight a conventional fight. We don't maintain an arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons anymore. I really haven't since the Cold War.

We only have the strategic city flattlers. those are used, it's not really a military question. It's a purely political question about whether you want to risk nuclear Armageddon or not. It's primarily a deterrent force because the U.S. conventional capabilities are so far and above what any potential threat could be. And if it's a paramilitary threat, like we say we encountered in the global war and terror, you're not going to solve that with nukes. So the leading theory is that Donald Trump personally wants to be able to blow up some nukes as examples to push negotiations forward. Now, Trump has not said that personally. This is something that is leaked out through the administration. I don't know if I should take it

serious or not. But the idea of setting off nukes as a negotiating point doesn't strike me as a particularly effective negotiating strategy unless, of course, the people on the other side are doing that already. And before you discount to that, keep in mind that that was part of the logic during the Cold War is that one side would innovate. a new nuclear weapon, demonstrate it, and then the other side would go set off a test immediately to prove that narrow nukes still worked and then develop their own weapon, and the cycle would repeat until we got to Gorbachev and everyone realized that, hey, maybe this isn't the best way to carry out negotiations. So no firm conclusions here. What the only thing that is clear is the

administration really is pushing this line, is not shared any information with the wider world that would suggest that it was actually a nuclear test that actually happened. Obviously, there are classified intelligence gathering techniques that are not being shared here. But again, the Trump administration has been pretty liberal with sharing those bits of information whenever it serves a political purpose. So a lot of weird little mysteries here. And the only explanation makes any sense is this is coming directly from the White House for reasons that until they are revealed, remain unseen. When someone you love is facing cancer, you want to do more than send a card or flowers that will wilt in a week. You want to actually help.

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