The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Could a Russian Revolution End the Ukraine War? || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: August 5, 2024

*This video was recorded in May of 2024. We've all stared at the stars thinking about the different ways the Ukraine War could end, but could a coup or revolution in Russia be the way it goes down? It sounds great, but there's quite a few obstacles in the way. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/could-a-russian-revolution-end-the-ukraine-war

Hey, everyone, Peter Zion here, coming to you from the south of France and Colvonk National Park. One of the questions I've been getting repeatedly in Europe is, isn't Russia due for a coup or a revolution or something? People are looking for a way to end the Ukraine more quickly. Well, three problems with that. Number one, I don't think we're going to see a palace coup anytime soon. Most of the people who are at the top of the Russian political heap are folks that Putin has known or has trained for the last 30 years. one of the many, many characteristics of the Soviet system is that the intelligence folks tended to be in charge, especially after they threw an internal coup back in the early 80s. That's when the drop-off, Ternabird and Gorbachev click came to power, all former intelligence officers. Putin is an heir to that legacy.

Remember, he used to be stationed in East Germany to steal industrial secrets from the West. Anyway, after that coup, everyone else in the communist hierarchy was basically purged. and so those were the people who took over the post-Soviet Russian system. There's only about 120 of the left at this point, but all of them are personally loyal to Putin from their days in the KGV, or they're the former interns of people like Putin, so say Alexei Miller or at Gaspar, literally a former intern. Anyway, so they all see the world from the same lens,

and they all have their position personally to Putin, and Putin has spent the last 30 years purging this group of anyone who might be disloyal. So number one, they see the world the same way. And if something were to happen to Putin, they would probably have a really interesting conversation about who's in charge next and then just prosecute the war more or less as it's been gone. And number two, they're personally loyal.

About the only one of this 120, they might have the guts to try something little scrappy, would be Igor Sechen. Former gunrunner now runs Rosniff, which is the state oil monopoly. He probably has the guts to kill Putin. But the other 119, if there's anything that they agree on, aside from, you know, staying out the world for the same lens.

It's that they all hate E. or Setschen. So if Setschen did try something, he would probably be the dead the next day. So internal palace coup probably not going to happen. That leaves the option of revolutions. Standard of living in Russia is dropping. They can't access the Western goods. They can't access Western travel destinations.

The economic elite, such as it is, isn't having a rough time of it. And inflation is an ongoing issue in many parts of the world, Russia included, because now the Russian, and industrial complex is being retooled to make tanks and refurbish military equipment, so it's not available for what poultry commercial goods that it was capable of producing in the first place. So what about a revolution? Well, the problem is that this is not the West.

These are not democratic societies. These are despotisms. And as a result, you usually don't get public uprisings in a place like Russia unless and until the standard of living tanks and the sense of nationhood itself is thrown into question. So Russia has, has, has had popular uprisings in the past, but like the end of the Cold War wasn't one. Basically, you have to see the Russian army just disintegrate in a military campaign to the point that people know that the strongmen are gone and are broken. We're not there yet, and there's nothing in the short-term horizon on the Ukraine war that suggests that we're anywhere close. But for those people who are thinking that this is still perhaps the path forward, I don't want to say you're wrong because we do have a lot of similarities right now between what's going on in Russian, what went on in the 1980s.

Similar economic dislocation, similar failure of state institutions. And I think the best parallel I can draw is the Progosen rebellion of last year. We had a rogue paramilitary commander who basically marched on Moscow for a thousand miles. And much to Putin's delight, not a single military officer joined him, but much to Putin. to spare, not a single military officer stood against Pergosen either. No one loves Russia, just like no one loved the Soviet Union. So when this does go, and odds are it will in time, the whole thing goes, the whole regime, the whole governing structure, just like it did in 1992. Because aside from the corrupt, there's no vested interest in maintaining this system.

It just has to have some sort of short, sharp shot. like an extreme military defeat for us to get from here to there. Oh yeah, I forgot the punchline. So are we gonna see a revolution of Russia? Almost certainly, but there aren't gonna be any warning signs until like the day that it happens and as soon as it's over, that's it for the Russian state. They don't have enough time demographically speaking to try something new. So when this is over, it's over.