The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - "Death to the Dictator" Protests in Iran || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: January 8, 2026

"Death to the dictator" chants have broken out during the protests in Iran, indicative of the broader economic and political strain throughout the country.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4pkol2g

Hey, all, Peter Zion here coming to you from Colorado. Today, we are taking a question from the Patreon crowd about Iran. Specifically, we have had multiple occurrences, at least 30, of chance popping up across Iran of death to the dictator. The idea is it's time to overthrow the clerical regime and put in some other type of governance. Is this real? Is it going to stick? Are we looking at the end of the system? Well, let's start why it might be. Probably not, but it might be. The economic system in Iran is atrocious. They've lost most of their oil production, and the money that came in from that is what allows

the place to be held together. And in the modern era, Tehran, whether it's controlled by the Shah or the clerics, has basically bribed the population to cooperate and collaborate. And that money is largely gone. In addition, that money is what funded Iran's ability to muck throughout the Middle East and mobilize sectarian minorities wherever they happen to be. in order to cause problems for majority Sunni Muslim areas. That money's gone.

So Iran is definitely in a weak spot right now, but does not necessarily mean that we're looking at an imminent revolution. A few things to keep in mind. Number one, there have only been six changes in continuity in 2,500 years of Persian history. It's a mountainous zone, and the way that the Persians rule is they conquer the people in the valley next to them, and then use them as cattle, as buffers,

as slaves, but they also trade and integrate with them. So eventually these people start to think of themselves over time, multiple generations, as maybe a little bit more Persian. And they've been doing that for millennia. But it's a slow integrative process that requires a lot of trade and a lot of intermarriage and a lot of redefinition of who you are, and that's hard to do in mountain valleys. So even after 2,500 years of doing this,

only about 50% of the population of Iran today considers itself Persian. That does argue for a relatively loose cultural dynamic, but it also argues for a very strong state because the Persians don't take chances with this sort of thing. And so Iran today maintains a million-man army not to threaten its neighbors, although you can't use the army for that, but to occupy its own not yet integrated populations. And so it's not a black and white situation. It's shades of gray, and the military goes where it's necessary in order to oppress the people. And if that works, problem solved.

And if it doesn't, use trading, use intermarriage, and use slow motion integration. It's not a perfect system, but again, six changes in continuity in the last 2,500 years. That's a much better record than Egypt or China or any of the really old cultures in the world. As for this time around, the economic situation is pretty rugged. Also keep in mind that one of those six continuity changes was the Islam. Revolution back in 1979, which was, you know, only 45 years ago. So this specific governing system in Iran has not yet proven itself to be able to hold the test of time. And the change before that, the Shah, that only dated back to 1925. So of the six changes in continuity, we've had

two in the last roughly century. This would argue that Iran is having a real problem adapting to the Industrial Revolution, and it's totally true, because the Industrial Revolution is all about using capital to implement new technologies that can percolate through your society and make them massively more productive. Iran has industrialized, but it's been in fits and starts, oftentimes funded by either oil money, which is no longer there, or foreigners who want to take their own piece of the pie. Neither of those are options right now. So we're seeing this extended stagnation period in Iranian society right now, which would argue, under normal circumstances for a change in system.

Just don't expect it to be overnight. The Persians tend to stretch everything out, as long as it can possibly go. And governance changes are no exception.